中国国际金融有限公司 2011-01-27
南华早报
 1.  Exchange Fund to invest in mainland for higher returns    [南华早报] 2011-01-27 BIZ, BIZ1
 2.  Anton eyes 350m yuan drilling services boost    [南华早报] 2011-01-27 BIZ, BIZ2
 3.  Down payment raised as Beijing imposes more property curbs    [南华早报] 2011-01-27 EDT, EDT6
英文虎报
 1.  Huge slice for property    [英文虎报] 2011-01-27 Business, P14
 2.  Kazakh miner hopes to scoop US$600 from flotation    [英文虎报] 2011-01-27 Business, P14
 3.  Region hostage to mainland policy    [英文虎报] 2011-01-27 Business, P14
 4.  Rates for mainland bank loans soar    [英文虎报] 2011-01-27 Business, P15
 5.  Volatile markets slash Exchange Fund returns    [英文虎报] 2011-01-27 Top News, P08
 6.  Second-home buyers hit    [英文虎报] 2011-01-27 Top News, P08
香港经济日报
 1.  港股反弹 蓝筹美午市稳    [香港经济日报] 2011-01-27 要闻, A06
 2.  外滙基金扩另类投资 谷回报    [香港经济日报] 2011-01-27 金融要闻, A10
 3.  哈萨克铜商 拟港筹逾40亿    [香港经济日报] 2011-01-27 金融要闻, A10
 4.  煤炭进口去年增长31%    [香港经济日报] 2011-01-27 投资理财, 011
 5.  港银新资本要求敲定 1年过渡    [香港经济日报] 2011-01-27 金融要闻, A10
 6.  美续复甦 QE2如期年中完结 储局︰家庭开支虽升 仍受高失业困扰    [香港经济日报] 2011-01-27 要闻, A06
 7.  本月信贷爆额 银行加息赶客    [香港经济日报] 2011-01-27 要闻, A04
 8.  黄金避险退潮 认沽证增4倍 交易员看淡后市 恐触发「大冲洗」    [香港经济日报] 2011-01-27 国际金融, A19
信报财经新闻
 1.  渣打:中港股市今年追落后    [信报财经新闻] 2011-01-27 股市, P08
 2.  钢铁业十二五续推进兼併重组    [信报财经新闻] 2011-01-27 中国经济, P14
 3.  A股反弹逾1%成交续减短期处弱势    [信报财经新闻] 2011-01-27 中国经济, P14
 4.  外滙基金去年回报仅3.6% 上季投资收入55亿 较第3季跌九成    [信报财经新闻] 2011-01-27 金融, P06
 5.  银根紧 银行天价利率吓熟客 1月新贷势逾1.2万亿料占全年17%    [信报财经新闻] 2011-01-27 中国经济, P14
 6.  人行注资补节前资金缺口    [信报财经新闻] 2011-01-27 中国经济, P14
明报
 1.  国际金融公司发1.5亿元人债    [明报] 2011-01-27 经济, B03
 2.  内地二套房需六成首期    [明报] 2011-01-27 经济, B01
 3.  内地银根紧 内银传加贷息    [明报] 2011-01-27 经济, B02
中国日报香港版
 1.  HKMA to diversify Exchange Fund    [中国日报香港版] 2011-01-27 HK Business, H02
 2.  Steel industry plan forged    [中国日报香港版] 2011-01-27 Business Economics, P14
 3.  Inflation concerns persist as prices increase    [中国日报香港版] 2011-01-27 Business Companies, P15
星岛日报
 1.  港股终止跌 交投续淡    [星岛日报] 2011-01-27 星岛财经, B02
 2.  投资内银债市 去年额度150亿    [星岛日报] 2011-01-27 星岛财经, B02
 3.  安东石油拟拆管材业上市    [星岛日报] 2011-01-27 星岛财经, B03
 4.  内地房贷二万亿增27%    [星岛日报] 2011-01-27 星岛财经, B02
文汇报
 1.  外汇基金转多元投资 将投内地债市A股 金管局:稳步调高投资风险 冀增中长线回报    [文汇报] 2011-01-27 重要新闻, A08
 2.  金管局投资将趋进取    [文汇报] 2011-01-27 重要新闻, A08
 3.  传内银大幅上调贷款利率 幅度10%至45%不等 部分项目暂停审批    [文汇报] 2011-01-27 中国经济, B04
 4.  中金提醒留意欧债余波    [文汇报] 2011-01-27 文汇财经, B01
 5.  中国高铁有望驶进美国    [文汇报] 2011-01-27 财经新闻, B02
东方日报
 1.  金管获150亿内银债市额度    [东方日报] 2011-01-27 产经, B02
苹果日报
 1.  调控第三波杀到5年内转售须缴税 中央再压楼市二套房首期60%    [苹果日报] 2011-01-27 财经要闻, B01
 2.  港银快测试流动性标准    [苹果日报] 2011-01-27 财经要闻, B03
 3.  信贷紧张 内银加贷息房产商捱打    [苹果日报] 2011-01-27 财经要闻, B01
成报
 1.  渣打料港股下半年趋好    [成报] 2011-01-27 财经, B03
南华早报 A
 1.  PCCW strikes deal with Telstra to restructure assets in joint venture    [南华早报] 2011-01-27 BIZ, BIZ2
 2.  Exchange Fund to invest in mainland for higher returns    [南华早报] 2011-01-27 BIZ, BIZ1
 3.  Will someone please explain what this HK$1.3 trillion is for?    [南华早报] 2011-01-27 BIZ, BIZ12
 4.  LK Technology sells stake to FountainVest    [南华早报] 2011-01-27 BIZ, BIZ3
 5.  How the saga unfolded    [南华早报] 2011-01-27 EDT, EDT3
 6.  Arts    [南华早报] 2011-01-27 Going Out, G10
 7.  Event    [南华早报] 2011-01-27 BIZ, BIZ2
 8.  TV appearance adds to Ho mystery    [南华早报] 2011-01-27 EDT, EDT1,EDT2
 9.  Advertising    [南华早报] 2011-01-27 BIZ, BIZ2
10.  How the elderly tycoon found out he was poor, and what he did about it    [南华早报] 2011-01-27 EDT, EDT1,EDT3
11.  Gigs    [南华早报] 2011-01-27 Going Out, G11
12.  In Brief    [南华早报] 2011-01-27 BIZ, BIZ3
13.  Aliens on their mind Two advocates of extraterrestrial encounters tell Hong Kong audience their stories, but scientists are sceptical, writes Adrian Wan    [SCMP-young post] 2011-01-27 Young Post, Y6
14.  Eviction rules are but a first step    [南华早报] 2011-01-27 EDT, EDT13
15.  Lai See    [南华早报] 2011-01-27 BIZ, BIZ12
16.  Anton eyes 350m yuan drilling services boost    [南华早报] 2011-01-27 BIZ, BIZ2
17.  Somewhere    [南华早报] 2011-01-27 Going Out, G07
18.  Bars    [南华早报] 2011-01-27 Going Out, G06
19.  Bunny business    [南华早报] 2011-01-27 Going Out, G03
20.  Mainland rents to eclipse those from HK for Hang Lung    [南华早报] 2011-01-27 BIZ, BIZ2
21.  Down payment raised as Beijing imposes more property curbs    [南华早报] 2011-01-27 EDT, EDT6
22.  Huawei gets US court to restrain Motorola    [南华早报] 2011-01-27 BIZ, BIZ2
23.  Skewed kind of parenthood    [南华早报] 2011-01-27 EDT, EDT12
24.  Shaw sells TVB stake in estimated HK$5.2b deal    [南华早报] 2011-01-27 EDT, EDT1,EDT2
英文虎报 A
 1.  Huge slice for property    [英文虎报] 2011-01-27 Business, P14
 2.  Kazakh miner hopes to scoop US$600 from flotation    [英文虎报] 2011-01-27 Business, P14
 3.  Sofa so good    [英文虎报] 2011-01-27 Home, P23
 4.  Volatile markets slash Exchange Fund returns    [英文虎报] 2011-01-27 Top News, P08
 5.  Big Apple - ripe for the picking    [英文虎报] 2011-01-27 Property, P18
 6.  Daughter enters fray as Ho `resolves' issue    [英文虎报] 2011-01-27 Top News, P06
 7.  Tencent to link up with Japan gaming firm    [英文虎报] 2011-01-27 Business, P15
 8.  Robert Kissel set for divorce, says witness    [英文虎报] 2011-01-27 Local, P13
香港经济日报 A
 1.  中建材转强 吼Call(24228)    [香港经济日报] 2011-01-27 投资理财, 018
 2.  中移动︰与fb商合作    [香港经济日报] 2011-01-27 金融要闻, A10
 3.  政府青睐有加 中航科工看俏    [香港经济日报] 2011-01-27 投资理财, 012
 4.  发改委轰家乐福价格欺诈 年关违规重罚 剑指外资超市巨头    [香港经济日报] 2011-01-27 中国要闻, A18
 5.  国产飞机立项 中航科工受惠    [香港经济日报] 2011-01-27 投资理财, 012
 6.  摩通增持5536万股工行    [香港经济日报] 2011-01-27 投资理财, 013
 7.  国策A股升 H股料跟上    [香港经济日报] 2011-01-27 投资理财, 004,005
 8.  煤炭进口去年增长31%    [香港经济日报] 2011-01-27 投资理财, 011
 9.  华尔街酬金胜往年 半数满意    [香港经济日报] 2011-01-27 国际金融, A19
10.  买入落后蓝筹Call    [香港经济日报] 2011-01-27 投资理财, 019
11.  港股反弹 蓝筹美午市稳    [香港经济日报] 2011-01-27 要闻, A06
12.  控通胀 先遏政府投资热情    [香港经济日报] 2011-01-27 国是港事, A32
13.  外企被指傲慢 当局杀鸡儆猴    [香港经济日报] 2011-01-27 中国要闻, A18
14.  马钢Call(27438)现价吸纳    [香港经济日报] 2011-01-27 投资理财, 017
15.  摩通:澳博最坏情况 仍值11元    [香港经济日报] 2011-01-27 要闻, A03
16.  英响滞胀警号 顽疾手尾长    [香港经济日报] 2011-01-27 国际金融, A19
17.  加息预期增 英镑有反弹    [香港经济日报] 2011-01-27 投资理财, 038
18.  哈萨克铜商 拟港筹逾40亿    [香港经济日报] 2011-01-27 金融要闻, A10
19.  新春催谷消费 旺旺短线看涨    [香港经济日报] 2011-01-27 投资理财, 010
20.  通胀挥之不去 吼资产折让股    [香港经济日报] 2011-01-27 投资理财, 008
21.  拆息料微软 港股炒反弹    [香港经济日报] 2011-01-27 投资理财, 003
22.  宏桥今招股 铝股全面分析    [香港经济日报] 2011-01-27 投资理财, 014,015
23.  长江生命 蓄势待发    [香港经济日报] 2011-01-27 投资理财, 012
24.  外滙基金扩另类投资 谷回报    [香港经济日报] 2011-01-27 金融要闻, A10
25.  资金流入恒指牛证    [香港经济日报] 2011-01-27 投资理财, 019
26.  国寿值博率高 Call(27690)可追入    [香港经济日报] 2011-01-27 投资理财, 016
27.  梁爱诗:俄企来港 先了解法规    [香港经济日报] 2011-01-27 金融要闻, A10
28.  美续复甦 QE2如期年中完结 储局︰家庭开支虽升 仍受高失业困扰    [香港经济日报] 2011-01-27 要闻, A06
29.  频传卖盘 「港台美组合」终跑出    [香港经济日报] 2011-01-27 要闻, A02
30.  机构投资者看好后市    [香港经济日报] 2011-01-27 投资理财, 011
31.  陈国强为首财团入主TVB 伙台湾女首富等 传作价近百亿    [香港经济日报] 2011-01-27 要闻, A02
32.  美股首季佳 台股长线俏    [香港经济日报] 2011-01-27 投资理财, 040
33.  黄金避险退潮 认沽证增4倍 交易员看淡后市 恐触发「大冲洗」    [香港经济日报] 2011-01-27 国际金融, A19
34.  中区警署石牆树 马会倡移除    [香港经济日报] 2011-01-27 港闻, A22
35.  奥巴马知错 创就业保连任    [香港经济日报] 2011-01-27 要闻, A04
36.  日拟派自卫队 鹿儿岛杀鸡 禽流重创家禽业 千万鸡命危    [香港经济日报] 2011-01-27 国际动态, A19
37.  单车穿町巷 探「地元」京都    [香港经济日报] 2011-01-27 旅途中, C01
38.  不同版本涌现 谁具法律效力    [香港经济日报] 2011-01-27 要闻, A03
39.  本月信贷爆额 银行加息赶客    [香港经济日报] 2011-01-27 要闻, A04
40.  奥巴马增科研 誓领先全球    [香港经济日报] 2011-01-27 要闻, A06
41.  何鸿燊开腔 盼「一趟解决」纷争 各房现身三太大宅 四太接走赌王    [香港经济日报] 2011-01-27 要闻, A03
42.  两个2万请务必达标    [香港经济日报] 2011-01-27 地产要闻, D01
43.  创科进军零配件 闯中南美东欧    [香港经济日报] 2011-01-27 金融, A11
44.  商务部︰华成贸易摩擦重灾区    [香港经济日报] 2011-01-27 中国要闻, A18
45.  腾讯倘破位追Call(26105)    [香港经济日报] 2011-01-27 投资理财, 018
信报财经新闻 A
 1.  中移动4G传获苹果力撑    [信报财经新闻] 2011-01-27 股市, P08
 2.  钢铁业十二五续推进兼併重组    [信报财经新闻] 2011-01-27 中国经济, P14
 3.  中海油发展大计今有分晓    [信报财经新闻] 2011-01-27 中环解密, P10
 4.  家乐福沃尔玛价格欺诈 发改委没收所得罚款五倍    [信报财经新闻] 2011-01-27 两岸消息, P15
 5.  IPO持续潮涌的新注解    [信报财经新闻] 2011-01-27 中国投资, P28
 6.  港股微弹大市偏淡    [信报财经新闻] 2011-01-27 股市, P08
 7.  毋须眼镜 画质优越 全息影像可取代3D电影旧技术    [信报财经新闻] 2011-01-27 科技创意, P39
 8.  「上下」「下上」难度增宜调整    [信报财经新闻] 2011-01-27 港股分析, P25
 9.  花旗宾卡疑似ICON业主    [信报财经新闻] 2011-01-27 中环解密, P10
10.  频传卖盘李家杰洽购无下文    [信报财经新闻] 2011-01-27 要闻社评, P02
11.  新兴市场降温实验    [信报财经新闻] 2011-01-27 国际脉象, P36
12.  南韩上季GDP增0.5%略胜预期    [信报财经新闻] 2011-01-27 国际金融, P19
13.  投资内地人债150亿额度获批    [信报财经新闻] 2011-01-27 金融, P06
14.  买卖Decumulator 宜先辨清障碍期权    [信报财经新闻] 2011-01-27 专家之言, P27
15.  跌至支持位 A指恒指双翼齐飞    [信报财经新闻] 2011-01-27 专家之言, P27
16.  渣打:中港股市今年追落后    [信报财经新闻] 2011-01-27 股市, P08
17.  腾讯与日本社交网站Gree Inc 结盟    [信报财经新闻] 2011-01-27 股市, P05
18.  企业管治与公司绩效的两道谜    [信报财经新闻] 2011-01-27 经管智慧, P35
19.  美金融危机政府监管机构有责    [信报财经新闻] 2011-01-27 国际金融, P19
20.  黑天鹅事件「炁住抢」    [信报财经新闻] 2011-01-27 专家之言, P27
21.  各指标未确认恒指回升    [信报财经新闻] 2011-01-27 信研Dashboard, P22
22.  美国工业露曙光    [信报财经新闻] 2011-01-27 国际脉象, P36
23.  头脑清醒跌市不惊    [信报财经新闻] 2011-01-27 投资者日记, P23
24.  下月起新股可免派招股书    [信报财经新闻] 2011-01-27 上市公司, P09
25.  电视广播易手「旧」媒体渐式微    [信报财经新闻] 2011-01-27 要闻社评, P02
26.  商品跌至支持位有望反弹    [信报财经新闻] 2011-01-27 滙金商品, P29
27.  澳博连跌两日 市值蒸发70亿    [信报财经新闻] 2011-01-27 要闻, P04
28.  宏桥盈利突急升赢龙头中铝 首只兔年百亿新股 今招股入场费5000 元    [信报财经新闻] 2011-01-27 股市, P08
29.  滙控的管治折让    [信报财经新闻] 2011-01-27 国际脉象, P36
30.  四太反败为胜 赌王重召御用律师再提「抢劫」    [信报财经新闻] 2011-01-27 独眼新闻, P12
31.  和黄以商业信托分拆大解构    [信报财经新闻] 2011-01-27 经管智慧, P35
32.  A股反弹逾1%成交续减短期处弱势    [信报财经新闻] 2011-01-27 中国经济, P14
33.  外滙基金去年回报仅3.6% 上季投资收入55亿 较第3季跌九成    [信报财经新闻] 2011-01-27 金融, P06
34.  英央行两官员支持加息    [信报财经新闻] 2011-01-27 国际金融, P19
35.  杨箕村记忆    [信报财经新闻] 2011-01-27 文化评论, P41
36.  虚实参半的《中国皇后号》    [信报财经新闻] 2011-01-27 文化评论, P41
37.  「平人」的「茉莉革命」    [信报财经新闻] 2011-01-27 文化评论, P41
38.  李居明:偏向虎山打硬仗    [信报财经新闻] 2011-01-27 今日焦点, P38
39.  家族企业承传 须建立良好管理制度    [信报财经新闻] 2011-01-27 专家之言, P34
40.  雅虎裁员Google增聘同为应对重大挑战    [信报财经新闻] 2011-01-27 放眼国际, P34
41.  银根紧 银行天价利率吓熟客 1月新贷势逾1.2万亿料占全年17%    [信报财经新闻] 2011-01-27 中国经济, P14
42.  图则申请量再创新高南湾发水56%    [信报财经新闻] 2011-01-27 房产, P11
43.  「创新」一词多解 美国「迷失」未来    [信报财经新闻] 2011-01-27 投资者日记, P23
44.  一波未平一波又起 长房突介入赌王争产风波    [信报财经新闻] 2011-01-27 要闻, P03
明报 A
 1.  外汇基金回报3.6% 远逊 09年 末季投资债券见红 拟投资海外物业    [明报] 2011-01-27 经济, B02
 2.  滙丰展出钱罂比赛作品 提升储蓄及理财知识    [明报] 2011-01-27 资讯频道, B11
 3.  瑞银吁买入中信行    [明报] 2011-01-27 创富理财, B08
 4.  国际金融公司发1.5亿元人债    [明报] 2011-01-27 经济, B03
 5.  国航估值吸引 中线看9.5 元    [明报] 2011-01-27 创富理财, B06
 6.  拆息急升 内地加息在即    [明报] 2011-01-27 创富理财, B07
 7.  英央行两委员撑加息    [明报] 2011-01-27 国际金融, A23
 8.  逾40 年经验: 买楼是最好投资    [明报] 2011-01-27 地产, B05
 9.  内地4部门齐保证 输港物资充足    [明报] 2011-01-27 港闻, A10
10.  宏桥毛利纯利率 远胜中铝俄铝 今起招股 最多集172亿    [明报] 2011-01-27 经济, B03
11.  MTR商场「兔喜扬眉」限量版利是封 揉合iPhone「扩增实境」技术及3D游戏    [明报] 2011-01-27 资讯频道, B11
12.  长和腾讯力撑 恒指升54点 受制内地「水紧」短期难突破    [明报] 2011-01-27 经济, B01
13.  互联网用户突破20亿    [明报] 2011-01-27 国际, A22
14.  田径新径界 渣打马拉松嘉年华 放松心情 享受热闹气氛    [明报] 2011-01-27 特刊, A38
15.  全球最大商品交易商 嘉能可入表申港上市    [明报] 2011-01-27 经济, B03
16.  主席增持显信心 理文造纸吸引    [明报] 2011-01-27 创富理财, B06
17.  上实折让大 攻守兼备    [明报] 2011-01-27 创富理财, B06
18.  内地二套房需六成首期    [明报] 2011-01-27 经济, B01
19.  力劲势成OPM股 宜逢低吸纳    [明报] 2011-01-27 创富理财, B07
20.  国情咨文称太空竞赛式挑战重临 奥巴马4提中国 倡科教兴美    [明报] 2011-01-27 国际, A22
21.  律师高国峻手握密函录像 称证赌王欲四房均分 追回股权    [明报] 2011-01-27 港闻, A05
22.  去年广告开支按年上升19%    [明报] 2011-01-27 行销攻略, B12
23.  《党史》二卷「彻底」否定「文革」?    [明报] 2011-01-27 副刊世纪, D04
24.  创科拓配件增利润 新产品销售额达标    [明报] 2011-01-27 经济, B03
25.  拓内销市场 专家齐献计    [明报] 2011-01-27 行销攻略, B12
26.  橡木桶的幽香    [明报] 2011-01-27 Style Server, D07
27.  恒指上24000即入市    [明报] 2011-01-27 创富理财, B07
28.  奥巴马宏愿:百万电动车高铁通全国    [明报] 2011-01-27 国际, A22
29.  MegaBox 引入反斗城 打造逾万呎儿童王国    [明报] 2011-01-27 地产, B04
30.  新水族馆全球第9大    [明报] 2011-01-27 港闻, A10
31.  Hastings    [明报] 2011-01-27 英文, A35
32.  革命火烧埃及 总统妻儿逃英 30 年最大反政府示威4 死    [明报] 2011-01-27 国际, A21
33.  7港银准进内地银行间债市    [明报] 2011-01-27 经济, B02
34.  达沃斯年会倡建风险分享网络 48% CEO看好今年经济    [明报] 2011-01-27 国际金融, A23
35.  腾讯前景看俏 Call 25890    [明报] 2011-01-27 创富理财, B08
36.  香港政党政治 进入战国时代    [明报] 2011-01-27 观点, A32
37.  亲读分产声明 见四房后授权律师追讨 赌王立场反覆 长房不信未获分产    [明报] 2011-01-27 赌王分家, A04
38.  波司登2.7 元博反弹    [明报] 2011-01-27 创富理财, B06
39.  长科有条件成1元股    [明报] 2011-01-27 创富理财, B06
40.  思捷调整已多 有条件反弹    [明报] 2011-01-27 创富理财, B06
41.  四房会商 长房孙女痛哭离开    [明报] 2011-01-27 赌王分家, A04
中国日报香港版 A
 1.  HKMA to diversify Exchange Fund    [中国日报香港版] 2011-01-27 HK Business, H02
 2.  China Mobile may buy Belgium license    [中国日报香港版] 2011-01-27 HK Business, H02
 3.  PICC branches violated law    [中国日报香港版] 2011-01-27 Business, P13
 4.  China Mobile, Facebook talk    [中国日报香港版] 2011-01-27 Business, P13
 5.  Glencore hopes to raise $2.5b in Hong Kong listing    [中国日报香港版] 2011-01-27 Business Companies, P16
 6.  Telefield expects $11.8m from IPO    [中国日报香港版] 2011-01-27 HK Business, H02
 7.  MEMBERSHIP HAS ITS PRIVILEGES    [中国日报香港版] 2011-01-27 HK Business, H03
 8.  Galaxy plans HK secondary listing    [中国日报香港版] 2011-01-27 HK Business, H02
 9.  Carrefour apologizes for overcharging    [中国日报香港版] 2011-01-27 Business Companies, P15
10.  Steel industry plan forged    [中国日报香港版] 2011-01-27 Business Economics, P14
11.  Inflation concerns persist as prices increase    [中国日报香港版] 2011-01-27 Business Companies, P15
12.  Ho moves to quell uproar over assets    [中国日报香港版] 2011-01-27 Front Page, P01
13.  Clubs need to get financially fit    [中国日报香港版] 2011-01-27 Front Page, P01,P06
14.  Plans afoot for petrochemical hub in Tianjin    [中国日报香港版] 2011-01-27 Business, P13
15.  Measures to tame property market    [中国日报香港版] 2011-01-27 Front Page, P01,P02
16.  Abode of the gods    [中国日报香港版] 2011-01-27 Life Travel, P19
17.  Xinyuan looks for investors to help finance land purchases    [中国日报香港版] 2011-01-27 Business Companies, P16
18.  Sinopharm plan to spend 5b yuan on acquisitions    [中国日报香港版] 2011-01-27 Business Companies, P16
19.  US will lose business if export controls remain in place    [中国日报香港版] 2011-01-27 Business, P13
20.  Shaw to sell entire 26% stake in TVB    [中国日报香港版] 2011-01-27 HK Business, H03
21.  Palm oil declines    [中国日报香港版] 2011-01-27 Business Markets, P17
22.  Once you've seen National Day crowds you've seen it all    [中国日报香港版] 2011-01-27 Life Pulse, P20
23.  Pet bunnies face grim Year of Rabbit    [中国日报香港版] 2011-01-27 HK Focus, H04
24.  Foreign capital drives growth    [中国日报香港版] 2011-01-27 Comment, P09
25.  Chongqing proposes tax reforms    [中国日报香港版] 2011-01-27 Nation, P04
26.  Fuel reserve project moves into new phase    [中国日报香港版] 2011-01-27 Business, P13
星岛日报 A
 1.  汽车股起劲踩油追落后 东风广汽华晨可取    [星岛日报] 2011-01-27 星岛投资王, B12
 2.  3G手机平靓正 中国无线望5元    [星岛日报] 2011-01-27 星岛投资, B10
 3.  中石化「25831」炒波幅    [星岛日报] 2011-01-27 星岛投资, B09
 4.  家乐福沃尔玛欺诈遭重罚 标高价格 再减价出售    [星岛日报] 2011-01-27 中国, A19
 5.  重农行盈利增长胜大行    [星岛日报] 2011-01-27 星岛投资王, B11
 6.  外汇基金投资收入790亿 较09年跌27% 第四季债券录亏损    [星岛日报] 2011-01-27 星岛财经, B02
 7.  港天然气供应获保证    [星岛日报] 2011-01-27 港闻, A13
 8.  保障投资者协会倡改上市例    [星岛日报] 2011-01-27 星岛财经, B04
 9.  君临天下超阔大窗夕阳映照 木色朴实厅堂    [星岛日报] 2011-01-27 九龙豪宅, K23,K24
10.  和黄势强「26363」可取    [星岛日报] 2011-01-27 星岛投资, B09
11.  招商局涨3%稳坐强势蓝筹    [星岛日报] 2011-01-27 星岛投资, B10
12.  漾日居色彩分间层次大宅 俯瞰内园景致    [星岛日报] 2011-01-27 九龙豪宅, K25,K26
13.  君滙港趟门露台市海双景 水晶吊灯显优雅    [星岛日报] 2011-01-27 九龙豪宅, K35,K36
14.  投资内银债市 去年额度150亿    [星岛日报] 2011-01-27 星岛财经, B02
15.  信用卡办年货悭足20% 赚尽农历年优惠    [星岛日报] 2011-01-27 财富管理, B05
16.  赴英读牙医找实习恐不易    [星岛日报] 2011-01-27 升学径, F04
17.  北京治堵 万八车牌摇号产生    [星岛日报] 2011-01-27 中国, A19
18.  新地沪国金中心夺两奖    [星岛日报] 2011-01-27 星岛财经, B04
19.  泓淋唞顺再展升浪 高端消费电子行业前景俏    [星岛日报] 2011-01-27 星岛投资王, B11
20.  创科增配件业务比重    [星岛日报] 2011-01-27 星岛财经, B03
21.  澳洲美酒佳餚之旅    [星岛日报] 2011-01-27 优游派, E02
22.  南韩经济增长八年最快    [星岛日报] 2011-01-27 国际金融, B06
23.  08金融海啸 储局华府捱轰 格老无视泡沫 伯老后知后觉    [星岛日报] 2011-01-27 国际金融, B06
24.  美续买债刺激经济 杜指中段升32点    [星岛日报] 2011-01-27 要闻, A03
25.  市场快讯    [星岛日报] 2011-01-27 星岛财经, B03
26.  澳博系股价波动 一天蒸发40亿    [星岛日报] 2011-01-27 要闻, A04
27.  Tablet PC平价抢客    [星岛日报] 2011-01-27 电气廊, E05
28.  荟萃苑大厅壁炉暖意盎然 露台坐享开扬景    [星岛日报] 2011-01-27 本周豪宅, K02,K03
29.  城市花园落地大窗观赏海景 宽阔厅间隔方正    [星岛日报] 2011-01-27 香港豪宅, K13,K14
30.  港股终止跌 交投续淡    [星岛日报] 2011-01-27 星岛财经, B02
31.  拟将政权世袭 成示威导火线    [星岛日报] 2011-01-27 国际, A22
32.  购TVB财团台资最触目    [星岛日报] 2011-01-27 星岛投资, B10
33.  安东石油拟拆管材业上市    [星岛日报] 2011-01-27 星岛财经, B03
34.  理文造纸炒波幅    [星岛日报] 2011-01-27 星岛投资王, B11
35.  内地房贷二万亿增27%    [星岛日报] 2011-01-27 星岛财经, B02
36.  新股东王永庆女儿最瞩目    [星岛日报] 2011-01-27 要闻, A02
37.  律师称手握赌王追产片段 否认被解雇 好戏在后头    [星岛日报] 2011-01-27 要闻, A05
38.  幸福比GDP增长更重要    [星岛日报] 2011-01-27 每日杂志, A15
39.  软弱警方    [星岛日报] 2011-01-27 专栏, E06
40.  英镑1.565美元有支持    [星岛日报] 2011-01-27 星岛投资, B09
41.  恒隆地产赚12.75亿 中期盈利倒退    [星岛日报] 2011-01-27 星岛财经, B03
42.  鸭脷洲南湾获批入伙纸    [星岛日报] 2011-01-27 星岛地产, C02
43.  邵逸夫103岁 掌控TVB 40年    [星岛日报] 2011-01-27 要闻, A02
44.  云景台长厅望繁华烟花海 跃式地台富层次    [星岛日报] 2011-01-27 香港豪宅, K11,K12
文汇报 A
 1.  春秋航空上A股程序启动    [文汇报] 2011-01-27 财经新闻, B03
 2.  中金提醒留意欧债余波    [文汇报] 2011-01-27 文汇财经, B01
 3.  电盈或受惠重组Reach    [文汇报] 2011-01-27 财经新闻, B02
 4.  欧元反弹渐近尾声    [文汇报] 2011-01-27 投资理财, B07
 5.  中航科工获母企注津航    [文汇报] 2011-01-27 财经新闻, B02
 6.  供港天然气枯竭 内地多招调配增供    [文汇报] 2011-01-27 香港新闻, A16
 7.  国航反弹续可跟进    [文汇报] 2011-01-27 投资理财, B06
 8.  神华进入平稳发展期    [文汇报] 2011-01-27 投资理财, B06
 9.  山西去年GDP增长13.9%    [文汇报] 2011-01-27 中国经济, B04
10.  金管局投资将趋进取    [文汇报] 2011-01-27 重要新闻, A08
11.  交行与浦发签业务合作    [文汇报] 2011-01-27 财经新闻, B03
12.  安东冀年收入增三成    [文汇报] 2011-01-27 财经新闻, B03
13.  沪1月宅地供应创近4年新高    [文汇报] 2011-01-27 中国经济, B04
14.  贵州GPS监控春运客车    [文汇报] 2011-01-27 中国新闻, A12
15.  嘉能可传融资195亿 澳韩哈萨克企业随后 海外企业蜂拥登H股    [文汇报] 2011-01-27 财经新闻, B02
16.  澳博复牌曾挫9% 券商指可趁低买入    [文汇报] 2011-01-27 重要新闻, A03
17.  新兴欧洲基金可憧憬    [文汇报] 2011-01-27 投资理财, B07
18.  末日博士:新兴市场将跌30%    [文汇报] 2011-01-27 文汇财经, B01
19.  股民维权 促禁玩财技    [文汇报] 2011-01-27 财经新闻, B02
20.  渣打:内地加息为入市时机    [文汇报] 2011-01-27 文汇财经, B01
21.  东华竞技同乐日 筹经费助弱势    [文汇报] 2011-01-27 紫荆广场, A24
22.  商银不良贷款率及余额 中银监:继续「双降」    [文汇报] 2011-01-27 中国经济, B04
23.  审计署指财险存多项违规    [文汇报] 2011-01-27 财经新闻, B02
24.  新政为房产税做技术准备    [文汇报] 2011-01-27 重要新闻, A09
25.  鹿儿岛爆禽流 封锁160鸡场    [文汇报] 2011-01-27 国际新闻, A21
26.  林毅夫:中国须警惕房地产泡沫    [文汇报] 2011-01-27 重要新闻, A09
27.  资金流向暂不利港股    [文汇报] 2011-01-27 投资理财, B06
28.  阳江核电站后年运营    [文汇报] 2011-01-27 中国经济, B04
29.  自由党懒理诬蔑 密密落区送暖    [文汇报] 2011-01-27 香港新闻, A14
30.  传内银大幅上调贷款利率 幅度10%至45%不等 部分项目暂停审批    [文汇报] 2011-01-27 中国经济, B04
31.  美国通用汽车 在华销量首超本土 去年售出235万辆 较美多13万    [文汇报] 2011-01-27 中国新闻, A10
32.  杨红卫 风筝家族的女掌门人    [文汇报] 2011-01-27 副刊人物, C02
33.  摩力集团四度蝉联中国游戏产业金凤凰奖    [文汇报] 2011-01-27 工商资讯, C01
34.  人民币兑美元汇率再创新高    [文汇报] 2011-01-27 中国经济, B04
35.  世界巨变香港经济须重新定位    [文汇报] 2011-01-27 文汇论坛, A18
36.  恒隆系少赚7成 仍加薪派花红 本港员工平均加4.5% 内地员工幅度逾10%    [文汇报] 2011-01-27 文汇财经, B01
37.  中印成达沃斯「主角」    [文汇报] 2011-01-27 中国新闻, A17
38.  外汇基金转多元投资 将投内地债市A股 金管局:稳步调高投资风险 冀增中长线回报    [文汇报] 2011-01-27 重要新闻, A08
39.  90% CEO料亚洲区业务增    [文汇报] 2011-01-27 文汇财经, B01
40.  10年削3万亿支出 减企业税    [文汇报] 2011-01-27 重要新闻, A07
41.  外汇基金需增持人民币资产    [文汇报] 2011-01-27 重要新闻, A02
42.  中印爱金且爱银    [文汇报] 2011-01-27 投资理财, B07
43.  滨海石化产业去年增七成    [文汇报] 2011-01-27 中国新闻, A12
44.  丐帮分裂上演争权闹剧    [文汇报] 2011-01-27 文汇论坛, A18
45.  赌王首度开腔 平息分产纠纷亲证澳博股权分二三房 问题解决不需律师介入    [文汇报] 2011-01-27 重要新闻, A03
46.  红磡都会 转型购物商场    [文汇报] 2011-01-27 地产新闻, B08
47.  合肥百货增发 短期看升    [文汇报] 2011-01-27 投资理财, B06
48.  港股落后外围 好友力撑    [文汇报] 2011-01-27 投资理财, B06
49.  邓小平翻译 忆中美建交波折    [文汇报] 2011-01-27 神州大地, C01
50.  TVB易主壳王伙王永庆女入股涉资或逾100亿 传方逸华早为卖盘铺路    [文汇报] 2011-01-27 重要新闻, A01
51.  「无对策」中间路线 共和党不鼓掌    [文汇报] 2011-01-27 重要新闻, A07
52.  TVB 艺人冀制作更多好节目 望新团队带领创出新气象 盼新老板勿大换班    [文汇报] 2011-01-27 重要新闻, A02
53.  收购突然 引发猜测    [文汇报] 2011-01-27 重要新闻, A01
54.  「新国八条」推出 抑内地楼市泡沫第二套房首付增至六成 各地须明定控房价目标    [文汇报] 2011-01-27 重要新闻, A09
东方日报 A
 1.  股博士随笔:中铁建有一定值博率    [东方日报] 2011-01-27 产经, B11
 2.  丝丝讲场:中石油失落一哥宝座    [东方日报] 2011-01-27 丝丝讲场, B07
 3.  浪图金:华电国际顺势买入    [东方日报] 2011-01-27 产经, B11
 4.  有数得计:中航科工上升空间大    [东方日报] 2011-01-27 产经, B11
 5.  罗尚沛荐联通赚5.7%    [东方日报] 2011-01-27 产经, B11
 6.  澳博复牌跌近5%    [东方日报] 2011-01-27 港闻, A03
 7.  亚洲捧场欧债超购8倍    [东方日报] 2011-01-27 产经, B06
 8.  基会主义:基金减持中石化宜观望    [东方日报] 2011-01-27 产经, B11
 9.  中石化寻求312亿贷款    [东方日报] 2011-01-27 产经, B05
10.  雅居乐主席屋发水29%    [东方日报] 2011-01-27 产经, B16
11.  内地家乐福被斥抬价欺诈    [东方日报] 2011-01-27 两岸, A38
12.  祖著先鞭:中国建材趁低收集    [东方日报] 2011-01-27 产经, B11
13.  急救智库:「股骨颈骨折」勿仓卒移动    [东方日报] 2011-01-27 港闻, A12
14.  王传福:华电动车市冠全球    [东方日报] 2011-01-27 产经, B05
15.  国美发展潜力不俗    [东方日报] 2011-01-27 产经, B11
16.  创科力谷新产品控成本    [东方日报] 2011-01-27 产经, B03
17.  中移:苹果公司撑研国产版    [东方日报] 2011-01-27 产经, B03
18.  内房股势受压    [东方日报] 2011-01-27 产经, B01
19.  「朱古力手指」少赚一截    [东方日报] 2011-01-27 产经, B06
20.  金管获150亿内银债市额度    [东方日报] 2011-01-27 产经, B02
21.  林毅夫吁警惕房产泡沫    [东方日报] 2011-01-27 产经, B01
22.  中环出更:余锦基行LV睇手袋    [东方日报] 2011-01-27 港闻, A17
23.  财险分支报表涉违规    [东方日报] 2011-01-27 产经, B03
24.  变性空姐    [东方日报] 2011-01-27 国际, A37
25.  啸后调查报告 跨代算帐    [东方日报] 2011-01-27 产经, B06
26.  势价股:中铝盈利前景好转    [东方日报] 2011-01-27 产经, B10
27.  群星汇:追沽英镑仍然值博    [东方日报] 2011-01-27 产经, B12
28.  华耐股东拟配售套现    [东方日报] 2011-01-27 产经, B03
29.  雅虎盈利堪忧再裁员    [东方日报] 2011-01-27 产经, B06
30.  国药13亿 执河北龙头    [东方日报] 2011-01-27 产经, B05
31.  另类投资进帐14亿    [东方日报] 2011-01-27 产经, B02
32.  盘路追击:中信行可吼位上车    [东方日报] 2011-01-27 产经, B10
33.  律师称未炒手握两王牌    [东方日报] 2011-01-27 港闻, A02
34.  金光大道:中国印度爱金且爱银    [东方日报] 2011-01-27 产经, B12
35.  中央八招再压楼市    [东方日报] 2011-01-27 产经, B01
36.  王雪红不靠父荫 创HTC王国    [东方日报] 2011-01-27 港闻, A04
37.  理文拆手袋介绍式上市    [东方日报] 2011-01-27 产经, B04
38.  真明丽1.3亿购美公司    [东方日报] 2011-01-27 产经, B03
39.  抹窗困外牆妇捱冷风    [东方日报] 2011-01-27 港闻, A22
40.  联想NEC合作快「扑锤」    [东方日报] 2011-01-27 产经, B03
41.  48%舵手看好经济前景    [东方日报] 2011-01-27 产经, B06
42.  大行精选    [东方日报] 2011-01-27 产经, B11
43.  名家讲场:星频出招港未处下风    [东方日报] 2011-01-27 产经, B04
44.  打疫苗失当 西医收警告信    [东方日报] 2011-01-27 港闻, A20
45.  宏桥招股基金入飞    [东方日报] 2011-01-27 产经, B04
46.  外汇基金 尾季输债    [东方日报] 2011-01-27 产经, B02
47.  投资概念:港星金融竞争此起彼落    [东方日报] 2011-01-27 产经, B12
48.  恒指涨54点有波幅无升幅    [东方日报] 2011-01-27 产经, B02
49.  湾仔建天桥15分钟漫步到中环    [东方日报] 2011-01-27 港闻, A17
50.  候议息美股重上万二    [东方日报] 2011-01-27 产经, B02
51.  大房四房反击抢夺赌王 四太陪返大宅 再晤律师    [东方日报] 2011-01-27 港闻, A01
52.  有声有识:新地逢低吸纳睇中线    [东方日报] 2011-01-27 产经, B12
香港商报 A
 1.  瑞银:中海油看20元    [香港商报] 2011-01-27 投资分析, A06
 2.  高盛:蒙牛估值吸引    [香港商报] 2011-01-27 投资分析, A06
 3.  电解铜生产持续高增长 铜价看涨 铜业股步入春天    [香港商报] 2011-01-27 投资理财, A08
 4.  摩通:中国食品目标价5.3元    [香港商报] 2011-01-27 投资分析, A06
 5.  香港新界工商总办低碳讲座 林东亮赞助潘洁等主讲    [香港商报] 2011-01-27 维港穿梭, B11
 6.  钢铁股看高一线    [香港商报] 2011-01-27 投资分析, A06
 7.  苏丹总统称分离已成现实    [香港商报] 2011-01-27 国际新闻, A20
 8.  期指牵动恒指纾压再涨    [香港商报] 2011-01-27 投资分析, A06
 9.  内银资金紧港股趋审慎    [香港商报] 2011-01-27 投资分析, A06
10.  日债与欧债的谬误    [香港商报] 2011-01-27 投资理财, A08
11.  勿让遏通胀 变成遏经济    [香港商报] 2011-01-27 重要新闻, A02
12.  港股结束四连跌反覆整固    [香港商报] 2011-01-27 香港产经, A03
13.  置富物色收购项目    [香港商报] 2011-01-27 重要新闻, A02
14.  吼玉米回调买入    [香港商报] 2011-01-27 投资理财, A08
15.  澳博复牌股价波动    [香港商报] 2011-01-27 重要新闻, A01
苹果日报 A
 1.  中环在线:滙丰新广告疑似抄桥    [苹果日报] 2011-01-27 财经要闻, B14
 2.  电盈︰受惠Reach重组    [苹果日报] 2011-01-27 财经要闻, B03
 3.  风云人物?一盘生意?    [苹果日报] 2011-01-27 名采论坛, E08
 4.  宣扬效用 财政部撑房产税可遏炒风    [苹果日报] 2011-01-27 财经要闻, B01
 5.  分散风险 多元化投资买海外物业    [苹果日报] 2011-01-27 财经要闻, B02
 6.  窝轮战机:南航展翅高飞27864可倍升    [苹果日报] 2011-01-27 投资, B11
 7.  窝轮抟击:中石化续推高20843炒一转    [苹果日报] 2011-01-27 投资, B10
 8.  四外资排队港上市共筹335亿嘉能可规模最大    [苹果日报] 2011-01-27 财经要闻, B06
 9.  贱招假减价结算收多钱标高价打折大小字博懵 家乐福欺诈万人罢买    [苹果日报] 2011-01-27 两岸要闻, A28
10.  青心直说:拆解中国式併购死因    [苹果日报] 2011-01-27 投资, B12
11.  投资者协会促查大折让供股晤监管机构研堵塞漏洞    [苹果日报] 2011-01-27 财经要闻, B08
12.  赌王律师入禀控二三房    [苹果日报] 2011-01-27 要闻, A01
13.  资金涌入进第二个黄金5年 林奋强:楼价两年升40%    [苹果日报] 2011-01-27 地产楼盘, B04
14.  航海錶胜智能手机    [苹果日报] 2011-01-27 时尚时裳, E04
15.  内地水利基金延长十年    [苹果日报] 2011-01-27 财经要闻, B06
16.  股场放大镜:中铝博见底反弹    [苹果日报] 2011-01-27 投资, B11
17.  抗争的火    [苹果日报] 2011-01-27 名采论坛, E08
18.  看图佈阵:低位现十字星有利喘稳    [苹果日报] 2011-01-27 投资, B11
19.  产业调结构政策快出台    [苹果日报] 2011-01-27 财经要闻, B07
20.  港股止跌成交仍弱    [苹果日报] 2011-01-27 财经要闻, B02
21.  已作设定 中行新贷目标7000亿    [苹果日报] 2011-01-27 财经要闻, B01
22.  中环在线:「谁开放的谁倒楣」王建宙讲反话    [苹果日报] 2011-01-27 财经要闻, B14
23.  大屋起3间洋房楼面呎价7.7万 全港最高呎价四叔破自己纪录    [苹果日报] 2011-01-27 财经要闻, B14
24.  财话短说长建争英风电项目入围    [苹果日报] 2011-01-27 财经要闻, B06
25.  逾半美市政债欠透明    [苹果日报] 2011-01-27 财经要闻, B07
26.  炒友Blog:中远国际净现金几同市值    [苹果日报] 2011-01-27 投资, B10
27.  澳博股价如坐过山车    [苹果日报] 2011-01-27 要闻, A06
28.  九旬婆婆感激善长赠毛毡    [苹果日报] 2011-01-27 苹果暖流, E09
29.  细节未定 获准150亿攻内地债市    [苹果日报] 2011-01-27 财经要闻, B02
30.  钢企十强占全国60%产能    [苹果日报] 2011-01-27 财经要闻, B07
31.  红Cult:长在故宫的竹    [苹果日报] 2011-01-27 Voice Over, E05
32.  美数据佳道指曾越万二    [苹果日报] 2011-01-27 财经要闻, B02
33.  憧憬复苏加快避险需求降金价遇冷锋专家倡低吸    [苹果日报] 2011-01-27 财经要闻, B07
34.  内线王:霸王蟹货绑死德银    [苹果日报] 2011-01-27 投资, B10
35.  技术员猝死遗属愁前路    [苹果日报] 2011-01-27 苹果暖流, E09
36.  财智语陆:港滙走弱暂不足为惧    [苹果日报] 2011-01-27 投资, B12
37.  分支违规财险加强整改    [苹果日报] 2011-01-27 财经要闻, B06
38.  穆巴拉克铁腕治国图权位世袭    [苹果日报] 2011-01-27 国际要闻, A31
39.  需时填补 甲厦租贵大户迁出成隐忧    [苹果日报] 2011-01-27 地产楼盘, B04
40.  Katherine!定Catherine?起双飞噩梦    [苹果日报] 2011-01-27 数码达人, E09
41.  实战理论:争产风波造就吸纳机会    [苹果日报] 2011-01-27 投资, B12
42.  赶发水入则申请续新高    [苹果日报] 2011-01-27 地产楼盘, B04
43.  是日放题1: 13米透视海洋奇观巨幕下会鎚头鲨    [苹果日报] 2011-01-27 是日放题, E02
44.  股路纵横:产金前例升国际资源要Buy    [苹果日报] 2011-01-27 投资, B11
45.  春天弃发长年期人债    [苹果日报] 2011-01-27 财经要闻, B06
46.  信贷紧张 内银加贷息房产商捱打    [苹果日报] 2011-01-27 财经要闻, B01
47.  置富︰内地购物团利商场    [苹果日报] 2011-01-27 财经要闻, B03
48.  中环在线:赌王护法禤永明丁父忧    [苹果日报] 2011-01-27 财经要闻, B14
49.  杀鸡儆猴、缩略写法    [苹果日报] 2011-01-27 名采论坛, E08
50.  屡传卖盘牵涉两岸三地富豪    [苹果日报] 2011-01-27 要闻, A02
51.  西医错打疫苗裁定失德五合一变五缺一男婴发烧两天    [苹果日报] 2011-01-27 港闻, A20
52.  调控第三波杀到5年内转售须缴税 中央再压楼市二套房首期60%    [苹果日报] 2011-01-27 财经要闻, B01
成报 A
 1.  中信国电稳健博反弹    [成报] 2011-01-27 投资, B05
 2.  外汇基金投资开错先例 金管局捱轰    [成报] 2011-01-27 财经, B02
 3.  渣打料港股下半年趋好    [成报] 2011-01-27 财经, B03
 4.  嘉能可英港上市筹780亿    [成报] 2011-01-27 财经, B02
 5.  新航空公司出噱头 泰变性人佳丽当空姐    [成报] 2011-01-27 环球奇趣, A14
 6.  重量级殊荣    [成报] 2011-01-27 财经, B04
 7.  中移落后 看好可选28167    [成报] 2011-01-27 衍生天地, B04
 8.  逾10家分店 涉价格欺诈 家乐福沃尔玛遭严惩    [成报] 2011-01-27 两岸, A15
 9.  东方海外季度收入增42%    [成报] 2011-01-27 财经, B03
10.  工商银行迈向国际    [成报] 2011-01-27 投资, B06
11.  首长科技买盘转强    [成报] 2011-01-27 投资, B06
12.  「国进民退」又 一波洗牌浪潮    [成报] 2011-01-27 成中讲台, A11
13.  金市静待 联储会议    [成报] 2011-01-27 投资, B06
14.  澳博复牌后食尽惊风散    [成报] 2011-01-27 要闻, A04
15.  宏桥今起招股配售理想    [成报] 2011-01-27 财经, B03
16.  「壳王」欲晋身传媒大亨    [成报] 2011-01-27 港闻, A05
17.  升级至龙头股 配售影响短暂 旭光要买目标4.80元    [成报] 2011-01-27 投资, B06
18.  港交所27315低位吸纳    [成报] 2011-01-27 衍生天地, B04
19.  国指跑赢 沽压渐减    [成报] 2011-01-27 投资, B06
20.  坚称赌王密令追钱 律师扬言公开猛片    [成报] 2011-01-27 要闻, A04
21.  年赚790亿 倒退27%    [成报] 2011-01-27 财经, B02
22.  假卡党借时差炁机200万    [成报] 2011-01-27 港闻, A05
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南华早报
 1. Exchange Fund to invest in mainland for higher returns
南华早报 2011-01-27 BIZ, BIZ1

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority will soon start investing in mainland stocks and bonds to improve the performance of the Exchange Fund.

While Hong Kong's retail investors bet on further yuan appreciation, HKMA chief executive Norman Chan Tak-lam said the plan to invest in yuan products was aimed at diversifying risk and improving returns.

The Exchange Fund, which exists to support the Hong Kong dollar's peg to the US dollar, is managed by the HKMA to invest in bonds, Hong Kong and overseas stocks, and foreign currencies.

The fund made a profit of HK$79 billion last year, 25 per cent below the HK$106 billion it made in 2009, but better than the HK$75 billion loss in 2008 amid the financial crisis. The fund grew 3.6 per cent last year, below the 5.9 per cent in 2009 and below the 5.9 per cent average from 1994 to 2010. In comparison, the Hang Seng Index advanced 5.3 per cent last year.

Chan said he was satisfied with the Exchange Fund's performance, which he said was better than expected in view of the European debt crisis. The fund made HK$42.1 billion from bonds, HK11.6 billion from Hong Kong equities and HK$27 billion from other equities but lost HK$3.1 billion in foreign exchange.

But he admitted the need to seek better investment opportunities. HKMA has started to diversify its investments by way of overseas properties and private equities to improve returns, Chan said. We will also start to invest in mainland stock and bond markets soon.

The HKMA has got the nod from the mainland regulators to become a qualified foreign institutional investor (QFII) and is working with the State Administration of Foreign Exchange on how much it will be allowed to invest in mainland stocks and bonds. Since the mainland is yet to open its capital markets to overseas investors, overseas central banks and investment companies need to obtain QFII certification before they can invest on the mainland.

Chan said the HKMA has also got the green light to invest up to 15 billion yuan (HK$17.7 billion) in the mainland's interbank bond market.

The value of the Exchange Fund grew to HK$2.35 trillion as of the end of last year from HK$2.15 trillion a year earlier.

The fund's performance affects the government's income. Despite the fund's poor performance last year, the government will still receive HK$33.8 billion in fees from the fund - more than the HK$33.5 billion in 2009. The fee is based on the fund's six-year average return up to the year in question.

Looking ahead, Chan said: The markets will continue to be uncertain and volatile. While the high unemployment rate and municipal debt would continue to trouble the US, the emerging markets that were facing mounting inflation would adopt tightening policies, Chan said.

All these will bring significant instability and uncertainty to the macro financial environment and investment markets this year. Against this backdrop, I will take a cautious stance on the outlook of the financial markets this year, he said.

Copyright (c) 2011. South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.

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 2. Anton eyes 350m yuan drilling services boost
南华早报 2011-01-27 BIZ, BIZ2

Anton Oilfield Services Group, which helps oil and gas producers boost output for technically challenging drilling projects, plans to spend 350 million yuan (HK$413.75 million) in the next three years to boost its  service capacity.

The Beijing-based privately owned firm needs the capacity to tap opportunities in the fast-growing domestic natural gas market as well as overseas, where mainland state-owned energy producers have aggressively sought acquisitions.

Vice-president Peter Pi Zhifeng says the central government plans to double the nation's annual gas production in 2015 to 170 billion cubic metres (bcm) from 83 bcm last year.

In this cake, 80 per cent of the projects are easy, 20 per cent are difficult and risky, he said. PetroChina and Sinopec, with over one million staff responsible for oil and gas field services, big and conservative as they are, lack the incentive system to encourage innovation and risk-taking.

Anton plans to provide the surgeries for difficult drilling projects, leaving the flu and colds to be handled by the services arms of the two state-owned giants.

The gas industry's growth will also be driven by unconventional gas sources, such as methane gas trapped between coal seams, or gas in compressed rocks.

Advanced technology and expertise are required to extract these hard-to-reach resources. One of its specialties is expensive horizontal drilling that involves boring multiple wells laterally through gas-bearing rock at angles from a vertical well bore to reach more gas reservoirs.

Anton derives 70 per cent of its revenues from gas projects and 30 per cent from oil projects.

Pi says the industry is projected to spend 600 billion yuan over the next decade on all forms of natural gas development, up from 89 billion yuan in the previous decade.

Copyright (c) 2011. South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.

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 3. Down payment raised as Beijing imposes more property curbs
南华早报 2011-01-27 EDT, EDT6

China has raised the minimum down payment for buying a second home to 60 per cent from 50 per cent in a move to further limit the risk of an asset bubble.

The State Council yesterday unveiled eight measures to curb property prices, including requiring local governments to set price controls, but made no mention of a widely expected property tax.

"China will continue to effectively curb investment and speculative purchases of houses to consolidate and expand on previous measures," said a statement on the State Council's website.

The country's leaders, acutely aware of public anger over unaffordable housing prices, have said they will not tolerate property inflation and speculation. Annual property inflation fell to 6.4 per cent last month from November's 7.7 per cent, although sequential momentum has remained strong, with prices rising 0.3 per cent on a monthly basis.

Municipal governments have a vested interest in the booming property sector, which provides much of their tax revenue.

According to the statement, city governments must set property price control targets in line with local income levels for this year and need to make the targets public by March 31.

"Local governments must shoulder responsibility for the stable and healthy development of the property market," it said.

The State Council reaffirmed a pledge to build more affordable homes to meet demand from low and middle-income groups.

While the statement did not mention the long-discussed property tax, the government will step up tax collection in the property sector.

An individual who sells his property within five years after purchase will have the revenue taxed under the new policy. Previously, only the price difference is taxed in most cases.

Lenders will continue to charge "differentiated" interest rates on mortgages. For second-home buyers, the rates should be at least 110 per cent of the benchmark rates. Local residents are barred from buying if they own more than two houses.

Analysts said the measures might achieve their intended goal.

"These are the unprecedentedly harsh policies, and will definitely weigh down [property] prices," said Hua Zhongwei, an analyst with Huachuang Securities in Beijing.

"The new measures are very strict. If property sales plunge, some developers will definitely run out of cash," said Shen Aiqing, an analyst with GF Securities in Guangzhou.

Despite the measures rolled out to control the property sector, prices have stayed stubbornly high.

Soho China's chief executive Zhang Xin said in Davos, Switzerland, the harsh measures were having a limited impact on prices and developers were still enjoying stellar sales. "You would expect the market to completely collapse, but just look at all the listed developers. Nearly everybody reported a record year."

Additional reporting by Reuters, Bloomberg , Associated Press

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英文虎报
 1. Huge slice for property
英文虎报 2011-01-27 Business, P14

The People's Bank of China said domestic lenders gave 2.02 trillion yuan (HK$2.4 trillion) in new loans to the property sector in 2010, making up a quarter of all new loans. Total loans to developers hit 591.6 billion yuan from 576.4 billion yuan in 2009.

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 2. Kazakh miner hopes to scoop US$600 from flotation
英文虎报 2011-01-27 Business, P14

London-listed copper miner Kazakhmys wants to raise up to US$600 million (HK$4.68 billion) through a secondary listing in Hong Kong in the first half, sources said yesterday, following other producers of raw material.

The miner - set to be the first Kazakh firm to list in Hong Kong - has an annual production capacity of 350,000 tonnes of copper, according to a report from Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

China accounted for 28 percent of Kazakhmys' revenue in 2009. The was when declining commodity prices cut net profit to US$554 million, down 39.05 percent on 2008.

Australia-listed lithium producer Galaxy Resources also seeks a secondary listing in the SAR to raise US$300 million. The deal should be launched in February by joint bookrunners BNP Paribas and Morgan Stanley.

Six non-Chinese raw metal and mining firms listed in Hong Kong last year. They included the world's largest aluminum producer, UC Rusal (0486), which was also the first Russian firm to list in Hong Kong.

China Hongqiao opens its retail books today to raise up to HK$17.2 billion, selling 1.74 billion shares at HK$7.10-9.90 apiece.

Telefield International (1143) rose 2.5 percent in the gray market to HK$1.23 from an offer price of HK$1.20, according to Phillip Securities. Shareholders posted a paper gain of HK$60 per board lot of 2,000. MANDY LO AND AGENCIES

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 3. Region hostage to mainland policy
英文虎报 2011-01-27 Business, P14

Investors may see slower growth in Asian markets this year, according to Standard Chartered Bank (2888), because of risks such as higher interest rates in the mainland.

Will Leung Chun-fai, the bank's investment strategist, expects the Hang Seng Index to perform more brightly in the second half of the year. But before that ``policy risks are likely and returns might not be what investors expected.''

Leung is bullish on Taiwan equities, with the island likely to benefit from growth in both the US and China.

He favors the technology sector and commodities-related stocks. And his forecast is for commodities to outperform equities because they are less vulnerable to those policy risks.

The Taiwan dollar may do even better than the yuan on the strength of the island's economic performance, Leung adds. Still, he sees the yuan rising 6 percent against the US dollar by year's end.

And he does not expect US interest rates to rise until next year. ``Although we are seeing recovery in the US, I believe the government will want to stabilize the economy first since some economic figures - such as the jobless rate - still do not look good.''

The HSI gained 0.23 percent to 23,843.24 points yesterday, while in Shanghai the index rose 1.17 percent to 2,708.74. KAREN HA

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 4. Rates for mainland bank loans soar
英文虎报 2011-01-27 Business, P15

Some mainland banks have raised interest rates sharply on loans to comply with government orders to rein in credit growth after another lending surge at the start of the year.

Head offices have instructed some branches to strictly abide by credit quotas this month, the China Securities Journal reported yesterday. Regulators, meanwhile, are keeping a closer eye than normal on lending activity as part of their campaign against inflation.

Although inflation dipped to 4.6 percent in December, many analysts expect the consumer price index to rebound this month to its fastest in more than two years and warn that excessive lending by banks would compound the problem.

The China Business News said that banks had already lent 1.2 trillion yuan (HK$1.42 trillion) by Monday.

That figure puts them well on track to blow past the limits that regulators had wanted to have set for the first month of this year.

And banks have faced contradictory incentives at the start of this year. On the one hand they have wanted to push loans out quickly, to grab a big slice of the nation's lucrative credit business before the government tightens policy further.

But they are wary of being so aggressive as to invite official scrutiny and even punishment.

``To ensure that loan issuance does not overshoot the quota, the head office has now sent out an order that all branches raise lending rates,'' the China Securities Journal reported, paraphrasing an unnamed official at a large state- owned bank.

China's banking system has been bit by an unprecedented liquidity squeeze ahead of the Lunar New Year, driving money market rates skyward and compelling the central bank to inject cash in the economy despite its tightening bias.

For less-favored industries, such as heavy polluters or energy guzzlers, some banks are setting lending rates 45 percent higher than the benchmark, which is now 5.81 percent for one-year loans.

For ordinary industries, lending rates are about 30 percent higher than the benchmark, though top clients can still access loans at a 5 percent discount to the benchmark rate.

REUTERS

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 5. Volatile markets slash Exchange Fund returns
英文虎报 2011-01-27 Top News, P08

The Exchange Fund's investment income last year plunged 26 percent to HK$79 billion because of volatile global markets.

Hong Kong Monetary Authority chief executive Norman Chan Tak-lam expects the market situation to remain the same this year.

The investment return last year was 3.6 percent, down 2.3 percentage points from the previous year, and also below the average investment return of 5.9 percent from 1994 to the present.

Despite the drop, Chan said it was better than expected given the weak investor sentiment caused by the European sovereign debt crisis in the first half of last year.

Foreign exchange turned from a profit of HK$9.8 billion in 2009 to a loss of HK$3.1 billion, while income from Hong Kong equities and foreign equities fell to HK$11.6 billion and HK$27 billion, respectively, down 76.3 percent and 44.7 percent .

But the fund's performance was within expectations since the global investment environment was very tough last year, said Eddy Wong Chin-wai, research manager of iFAST Financial (Hong Kong).

Chan remains cautious on financial markets this year as the US and emerging market economies are facing a number of challenges. He added that the authority's investment team will diversify its portfolio to hedge against instability and uncertainty.

The team has started to invest in several new types of assets, including equities and bonds in emerging markets, private funds and overseas real estate, he said.

``Yuan-denominated bonds and equities will also be considered,'' Chan said. ``But the asset ratio of yuan products will be limited.''

He said the People's Bank of China has given the authority the green light to invest up to 15 billion yuan (HK$17.74 billion) on bonds issued in the mainland.

Of last year's return, HK$33.8 billion has been paid as fiscal reserves to the government, while the Exchange Fund's accumulated surplus rose by HK$37.9 billion to HK$594.1 billion. ellen.wang@singtaonewscorp.com

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 6. Second-home buyers hit
英文虎报 2011-01-27 Top News, P08

China has introduced more measures to cool its red-hot property market.

The State Council raised the minimum downpayment to buy a second home to 60 percent, from the current 50 percent, after a meeting chaired by Premier Wen Jiabao, state media reported.

Mortgage rates for second homes have to be at least 10 percent more than the benchmark rate, according to a policy first announced in April.

The State Council also requires local authorities to set price targets for this year by the end of the first quarter.

Other measures include purchase limitations, with each family allowed to own only one flat.

This policy is expected to be introduced in 30 cities.

Meanwhile, Chongqing plans to run a 10-tier residential property tax scheme, with the rate under 3 percent.

``In theory, the 3 percent cap levied on properties is good enough to minimize the margins for speculators,'' mayor Wang Qifan told the municipal workers conference.

``We are confident this can keep speculators away.''

Wang said Chongqing will run a scheme similar to Taipei's, which divides properties into nine grades, charging 3 percent on top-tier properties.

``Both cities target upscale properties and luxury homes,'' said Wang.

Many people in Shanghai are rushing to buy a home or close a deal, particularly for luxury homes, before the property tax is introduced. The total area of homes sold on Tuesday soared 160 percent to 101,174 square meters from Monday.

Deals for homes of more than 140 square meters and costing more than three million yuan (HK$3.54 million) surged 36.4 percent in the first two weeks of January, from the same period in December.

Homes costing over 10 million yuan saw a 100 percent sales increase in the same period, according to Century 21 China Real Estate.

However, turnover for flats smaller than 90 square meters and costing less than three million yuan, dropped 13.8 percent.

``Some of our branch managers have confirmed that they've been receiving more clients over the past few weeks partly due to the impending property tax,'' said Luo Yinshen, a researcher at Century 21.

Shanghai is waiting for the green light from Beijing to launch a property tax, said a city spokesman.

Shanghai and Chongqing are the two mainland cities implementing a pilot scheme for property tax to try and curb surging home prices.

tony.liaw@singtaonewscorp.com

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香港经济日报
 1. 港股反弹 蓝筹美午市稳
香港经济日报 2011-01-27 要闻, A06

  期指明日结算前,转仓昨主导大市。借助内地股市反弹,期指一度升上24000点水平,恒生指数收报23843点,升54点或0.23%。外资交易员指市场整体乐观。

  大市成交减弱被视为利淡因素,如申银万国便指,A股市场昨日参与度不高,料超跌反弹的高度只是有限。不过,滙丰量计研究部统计发现,自1991年起,恒指一般而言在农历新年前两个交易日开始上升,升势持续至新春假后第17个交易日,相信今年亦然。

美银美林:可趁气氛过淡低吸

  美银美林为所谓「一月效应」给予新注释,中国式「一月效应」正形成,像2008年和2010年,今年开始亦适逢北京矢言勒紧信贷供应,银行与监管机构博弈,令市场变得情绪化。

  不过,美银美林安抚投资者,无论信贷如何收紧,以今年贷款增长目标15%计,仍可支撑增长,每次市场气氛过于悲观,都是低吸机会。

  美资经纪行BGC证券衍生产品交易部主管李敦成表示,恒指连续两日上试24000点高位无力而还,短期后市仍未摆脱弱势,不排除农历年假后会再回落,下试23000点以至22600点支持。

  1月及2月期指分别录得约11.4万及5.6万份合约成交。期指昨大部分时间相对恒指维持高水,1月期指收报23858,高水14点,2月期指高水22点。

  重磅股滙丰(00005)、中移动(00941)受压,内地银行传加贷款息,内银股表现参差。

  渣打银行财富管理策略师梁振辉昨称,因内地政策风险、及部分资金借美国经济及企业数据复甦而流回成熟市场,港股第一季风险仍高于回报,表现势受压。他估计,人民银行上半年会加息三次,投资者可考虑于首两次加息后,负面消息淡化始入市,而港股有望于第二季企业开始公布业绩后展升浪。

  本港时间今晨3时30分,滙丰在美国挂牌的预托证券(ADR)折算报86.5港元,较本港收市价86元高0.05元;中移动ADR折算报76.75港元,较本港收市价76.3元高0.45元;中国人寿(02628)ADR折算报30.85港元,较本港收市价30.9元低0.05元。

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宏桥今招股 铝股全面分析

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 2. 外滙基金扩另类投资 谷回报
香港经济日报 2011-01-27 金融要闻, A10

  尽管外滙基金规模按年增长9.1%,至2010年年底的23,457亿元,但投资收益则下降26.6%至790亿元(见表)。为了提升外滙基金的回报,金管局总裁陈德霖表示,基金已进行投资多元化,现时已开展了几种类别的投资,包括新兴巿场的股票和债券、私募基金及海外的投资物业。

获QFII资格 投资内地股债

  与此同时,金管局亦计划投资人民币资产。他表示,人民银行已批准了金管局参与内地银行间债券巿场的资格及额度,为150亿元人民币,亦会以合格境外机构投资者(QFII),投资内地交易所上市的股票和债券。

赚790亿跌27% 债券占逾半

  外滙基金在2010年录得790亿元的投资收益,按年减少26.6%。其中债券的收益为421亿元,港股组合的收益为116亿元,外国股票组合的收益为270亿元,其他投资项目的收益为14亿元,以上的投资收益足以抵销在外滙投资方面所录得的31亿元亏损。

  外滙基金在2008年底成立投资控股公司——Eight Finance Investment Company Limited(以下简称EFIC),注入28.02亿元资金。

  虽然金管局未肯透露EFIC的投资回报,不过,金管局副总裁余伟文表示,投资的主要是私募基金及海外投资物业。而金管局旗下的海外基金投资控股附属公司资产的价值,亦由2009年的28亿元,增加至目前的147亿元。他表示,金管局未来仍会增加上述两项投资,对EFIC所注入的资金亦会增加。

确认买私募基金海外商厦

  在资产多元化方面,陈德霖表示,金管局在资产多元化方面的工作是按部就班地进行。至于2009年年报中所披露的股票占75%、债券占25%的投资组合基准,会否因为多元化而作出改变,余伟文表示,若是投资在新兴市场的股票及债券,仍会计入上述的比例组合中,至于私募基金及海外投资物业,则会独立划分出来,相信这个基准暂时不会有大变动。

  对于今年外滙基金的表现,陈德霖相信会和去年「差不多」,仍需要步步为营,小心翼翼的进行,欧美经济仍未恢复及新兴经济体系采取的一些调控和紧缩政策和措施,都会为今年的宏观金融环境和投资巿场带来颇大的不稳定性和不确定性。

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资金涌港 迫购低回报美债

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 3. 哈萨克铜商 拟港筹逾40亿
香港经济日报 2011-01-27 金融要闻, A10

  愈来愈多外资企业,挑选香港作为筹集资金的地方。外电报道,已于英国上市、全球十大铜生产商的哈萨克斯坦Kazakhmys,正计划于香港作第二上市,集资约5亿至6亿美元(39亿至46.8亿港元)。消息指,公司仍未向港交所(00388)递交上市申请。

宏桥毛利率38.3% 急升6倍

  此外,宏桥集团(新上市编号:01378)顺延一日后,今日正式招股,招股价7.1至9.9元,市盈率9.89至13.8倍,入场费约4,999元。

  因成本控制得宜及价格回升,去年头9个月,该公司的毛利率由2009年同期的5.6%升至38.3%。行政总裁张波称,有把握今年仍可维持该毛利率。

  至于Kazakhmys,该公司的网页指其拥有15个铜矿,并足以作20年开发之用。除了铜业为其核心业务外,Kazakhmys亦拥有石油、黄金及电力等业务。根据其公布的2010年上半年业绩显示,盈利为6.96亿美元,较2009年同期大升逾1倍半。花旗和中金为保荐人。

商品巨头嘉能可 拟港英上市

  另外,消息指持有俄铝(00486)8.65%股权的商品贸易巨头嘉能可(Glencore),亦已递交上市申请。预料最快4至5月于本港及伦敦同时上市,全球集资额达到100亿美元,而香港则最少占25亿美元。保荐人为摩根士丹利及花旗,帐簿管理人则为瑞信。

  消息指,瑞士资金的嘉能可为欧洲市场熟悉,同时其业务很大部分也由亚洲市场推动。选择于香港上市是因为想贴近客户,同时相信亚洲的基金公司也会对此投资十分有兴趣。虽然消息指,嘉能可仍未落实任何基础投资者,但据彭博报道,该公司于2009年底发行了总额达22亿美元的可换股债券,并可兑换一旦公司上市后的股票,投资者包括新加坡GIC、贝莱德和紫金矿业(02899)。

  另外,今日上市的中慧国际(新上市编号:01143),昨录得暗盘成交1.23元,较招股价1.2元微升2.5%。

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 4. 煤炭进口去年增长31%
香港经济日报 2011-01-27 投资理财, 011

  国家发改委公布,去年全年煤炭进口1.65亿吨,同比增长30.99%;出口1,903万吨,同比下降15.03%;净进口1.46亿吨,同比增加4,237万吨。

  解读︰煤炭为内地重要能源,约占内地能源消耗总量之7成。可是,由于内地煤炭产量不足以应付其庞大需求,故需进口大量煤炭以满足需求。不过,记录显示,过去一年国际煤价却持续上涨。

  展望今年,可从供求两方面预示煤炭市场的走势。

  供应方面,去年年底澳洲因暴雨而引发水灾,并导致煤炭供应受到影响,国际煤价亦因而攀升。短期而言,由于当地仍需要时间清理灾后情况,料国际煤价仍将在高位徘徊,亦因此对内地煤价形成一定支持。

  需求方面,煤炭主要应用在火电、水泥、钢铁和化工方面。

  火电方面,有分析相信,内地今年上半年之通胀情况将比下半年为高。在此基础下推论,由于内地电价受政策所限,故在通胀情况未有明显改善之情形下,电价难以上调。因此,电企将持续缺乏增加发电量的诱因,火电用煤的需求将难有太大改善。

  水泥方面,内地计划今年建设1,000万套保障性住房,按年增长72%,这将对煤炭需求产生拉动作用。

  钢铁方面,内地有报道引述权威人士称,钢铁行业「十二五」规划初稿中,鼓励兼併重组和优化产业布局的主线仍将延续,而淘汰落后产能和节能减排标准将有所提高。「十二五」期间,国内排名前10位钢铁企业的产能占全国产能的比例达到60%。淘汰落后产能,正好给予大型钢企难得的整合机会。

兗州煤业可留意

  由于整合将使钢铁企业的市场份额增加,其在合约煤方面的议价能力必定提高,而这对煤企而言绝非好事。因此,煤炭股方面,不妨注意一些现货销售比例较高的煤企。当中,以2009年计算,兗州煤业(01171)之现货煤销售比达77%,故较能规避在议价下合约煤毛利率被挤压的影响。

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 5. 港银新资本要求敲定 1年过渡
香港经济日报 2011-01-27 金融要闻, A10

  【本报讯】金管局昨就最新银行监管协议《巴塞尔资本协定III》,致函本港认可机构,表示将加强对银行资本要求,股本资本(common equity capital)的下限将从现行的2%提高至4.5%,而一级资本则由4%上调至6%,但最低资本要求则维持8%不变。

备缓冲资本 应对逆经济周期

  同时,银行亦需准备逆经济周期的缓冲资本,根据巴塞尔的建议,有关资本比率为0%至2.5%,视乎经济周期而定。

  此外,金管局亦要求银行建立两项新流动性资本比率要求,包括「流动覆盖比率」(liquidity coverage ratio)及「净额稳定资金比率」(Net Stable Funding Ratio),前者是确保银行在市场大幅动盪时期,有足够资金应付30日的业务要求,后者则是旨在要求银行以长期及稳定资金,作为支持业务运作需求。

  由于两项资本要求属新建议,金管局将予银行一年时间筹备其滙报系统,银行将于2012年1月呈交其首项报告。

  金管局在评估本港银行时指出,本港银行资本充沛,新资本及流动性要求应不会对银行构成太大问题。截至6月底止,本港银行的总体资本充足比率15.7%,一级资本比率为12.1%,当中有85%属于普通股本,即港银的普通股本充足比率约10.4%。

影响有限 料港银毋须集资

  事实上,金管局副总裁阮国恒曾表示,本港银行平均股本资本高达10.4%,即使扣除少数股东权益,港银的资本充足比率仍高于巴塞尔资本协定III的要求,没有任何银行因新规定而需要集资。

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 6. 美续复甦 QE2如期年中完结 储局︰家庭开支虽升 仍受高失业困扰
香港经济日报 2011-01-27 要闻, A06

  美国联邦储备局本港时间今晨3时15分结束今年首次议息会议,宣布维持联邦基金利率在0至0.25厘区间不变,一如市场预期,低息率政策仍会维持一段长时间,而6,000亿美元购买政府债券计划将如期在今年6月底结束。

  储局指,虽然经济复甦仍然持续,但幅度不足(insufficient)以令劳工市场情况出现重大改善。声明又指,去年年底家庭开支上升,不过仍受高失业率、个人收入温和上升、楼价下跌及信贷紧缩困扰。虽然商品价格上升,料长期通胀预期仍然维持稳定,而潜在通胀持续下滑。

  一向被外界视为鹰派的达拉斯联储银行总裁费希尔(Richard Fisher)及费城联储银行总裁普罗索(Charles Plosser)在今次会议未有投反对票。

新屋销售劲 道指曾升破万二

  市场料欧元区加息快于美国,令欧元升兑1.3722美元两月高位,美滙指数跌至77.748的10周低位,商品价格反弹,连同美国新屋销售升至8个月高位,令午市美元反弹,道指早段两年半来首次重越12000点关口。

  道指继上日微跌3点后,早段曾升39点、至12017点,08年6月以来首次重上12000点水平之上,本港今晨3时30分(收市前1小时30分),升14点,报11991点;债券价格下跌,10年美债孳息从3.32厘升上3.43厘。

估欧央行年内加息 遏通胀

  上月新屋销售升17.5%、至年率32.9万间,胜预期29.9万间,主因受西部销售大升近72%带动;新屋中间价按年升8.5%、至24.15万美元的08年4月以来高位,尽管按年销售仍跌7.6%,令全年销售历来最差,较09年跌14.2%、至约32.1万间,但投资者憧憬楼市开始露出复甦信息,加上若干巨企业绩佳,与美国总统奥巴马发表国情咨文,建议降低企业税,均利好股市。

  储局今晨宣布维持利率及吸纳6,000亿美元国债计划不变,以确保经济踏上稳健复甦台阶,反观欧洲央行发出忧虑通胀升温的警告,令市场谈论央行或于今年稍后加息。

  交易商指欧元在1.374美元有技术阻力,但较大阻力为去年11月22日所造的1.3786美元高位。瑞银(UBS)货币策略师Manuel Oliveri表示,欧元大部分升势似由投机者推动,并无重大结构性资金流入欧元区,意味欧元可随时受不利消息影响,大幅回落。

  美元兑其他货币先跌后稳,低兑81.98日圆。上日受末季经济意外收缩打击的英镑,亦升见1.5906美元,升0.6%;商品价格回升,惠及澳元高兑99.98美仙,美元回落至低见0.9937加元。

  纽约期油反弹至高见87.6美元,现货金午市倒升0.3%至1,335美元;农产品持续强势,美国小麦升1.1%、至每浦式耳8.48美元29月高位,巴黎小麦升1.2%、至每吨265.75欧元新高。

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 7. 本月信贷爆额 银行加息赶客
香港经济日报 2011-01-27 要闻, A04

  消息指,内地1月份新增贷款将达1.2万亿元(人民币.下同),达到监管部门容忍极限,各银行总行已向分支行下令本月信贷不得超标,多家银行纷纷大幅上调贷款利率,变相加息赶客。内地资金紧张情况未有改善,隔夜息再升55点子(100点子为1厘)。

1.2万亿达极限 隔夜息续升

  《第一财经日报》报道,截至1月24日内地银行新增贷款已达1.2万亿元,达监管部门容忍极限。业内人士称,下两个月信贷控制将会更严格。

  《中国证券报》报道,因年初信贷投放井喷,导致银行信贷资源紧张,一些银行贷款利率出现上调,幅度在10%至45%不等。以5年期贷款为例,上调45%后,利率就由6.4厘大幅升至9.28厘。

  有大型银行资产负责人称,现在银行当月信贷额度已全部投放完毕,总行已下命令,本月各分支行放贷不得超出当月信贷额度。为保证信贷投放额度不超标,银行只好大幅提高贷款利率水平,变相赶客。

  内地银行资金紧张,民间贷款利率亦水涨船高。据了解,深圳民间贷款利率已由平日的12至13厘,急升至17至18厘。

  此外,由于存款准备金率连续7次上调,加上银行资金紧张减少拆出资金,自上周起内地市场利率连续攀升,昨日上海银行同业隔夜拆息(Shibor)为例,昨再升55点子,达到7.76厘,再创逾3年新高。

  另外,银监会主席刘明康称,非常关注通胀问题,又预料中国今年经济增长将告别双位数快速增长。对于1月新增货款逼近1.2万亿元,他指通常1月信贷规模都高于平时。

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 8. 黄金避险退潮 认沽证增4倍 交易员看淡后市 恐触发「大冲洗」
香港经济日报 2011-01-27 国际金融, A19

  环球经济复甦趋于稳健,令黄金避险作用减退,黄金投资需求明显下降;另行使价1,250美元的黄金,认沽期权合约张数较12月初增近4倍,反映交易员看淡后市,恐来个「大冲洗」。

  据彭博社数据,黄金相关交易所买卖产品(ETP)持有实金量在周二单日减少1.5%,至2,043吨,减幅为逾两年之最。若与去年12月20日最高纪录2,114吨相比,则减3.4%。去年欧债危机爆发,加上美国推出第二轮量化宽松政策(QE2),令黄金投资需求激增,10种黄金相关交易所买卖产品所持实金量大增17%。

金价本月跌7% 昨低见1330

  黄金延续长达10年大牛市,去年12月初升至纪录新高每盎斯1,431美元。但随着美国经济靠稳及欧债危机缓和,黄金表现失色,今年以来已累跌7%,周二更低见3个月低位1,322美元,昨报约1,330美元。

  白银亦受金价拖累,今年初高见每盎斯31.25美元后,周二低见两个月低位26.57美元,昨报约27美元。

  渣打在每周报告预期,黄金、白银料会进一步疲弱,因为经济数据强劲,已改善环球经济前景,令投资者毋须增持金、银以对冲信贷风险、事件风险及货币弱势。

  彭博社在1月20至24日期间访问该社千位用户,逾半数用户认为金市出现泡沫。有受访基金经理认为,黄金欠缺基本价值,不能产生现金流,而股神巴菲特(Warren Buffett)去年也有此看法。

麦嘉华:长期低息 贵金属仍俏

  不过,末日博士麦嘉华(Marc Faber)认为,多国负利率政策令黄金成为最具价值货币,故仍看好黄金等贵金属价值。Seabreeze Partners总裁Doug Kass则持相反意见,认为美国的量化宽松政策或快将完结,而全球其他央行则已加息并限制信贷,将有利纾缓通胀,故预测黄金是表现最差资产类别之一。

  高盛(Goldman Sachs)近日发表报告,旗下分析员Jeffrey Currie写道,鑑于美国经济复甦已转趋稳健,黄金在商品的领导地位已失,将由石油取而代之,为09年中以来首次。

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信报财经新闻
 1. 渣打:中港股市今年追落后
信报财经新闻 2011-01-27 股市, P08

去年中港股市表现较区内其他市场逊色,渣打银行财富管理投资策略师梁振辉表示,今年中港股市有望追落后,预料待政策因素逐步明朗,下半年港股表现会较好。

上半年不明朗料下半年转好梁振辉于投资展望会上表示,当前港股于26000 点阻力大,但22700 点附近有较强支持,预料上半年风险大于回报,主要因内地政策尚未明朗,待内地加息1 至2 次、不明朗因素消除后,港股下半年有望回稳上升,表现将胜上半年。同时, 3 月起上市公司业绩公布或成为催化剂,业绩优胜者或于第二季起好转。行业方面,看好与科技及商品相关的板块表现。

他指出,大中华区内较看好南韩股市和台股,预期在受惠内地经济联系以及在美国科技股表现优异的双重带动下,台股将呈上升趋势,而去年强势的东南亚股市,则可能有回吐压力。

楼市方面,他预期,今年香港房地产市场会平稳发展,因低息、热钱流入及就业情况改善等基本因素不变。投资而言,则较看好商业地产,住宅类地产股面临政策调控风险。

外币方面,梁振辉指出,近期美国经济数据改善、企业业绩理想,或令资金流向美国,对美元起支持作用,短期内(3 个月)亦较看好美国股市。不过,美国全年加息机会不大,预料美元于下半年走势转弱,而人民币全年升值料为6%。

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 2. 钢铁业十二五续推进兼併重组
信报财经新闻 2011-01-27 中国经济, P14

钢铁行业「十二五」规划初稿基本完成。据《经济参考报》引述权威人士透露,在规划的初稿中,鼓励兼併重组和优化产业布局的主线仍将延续,而淘汰落后产能和节能减排标准将有所提高。

上述人士称,还有一些指标有待讨论,目前并未有最终定论。规划初稿中,要求淘汰400 立方米及以下高炉和30 吨及以下转炉;在节能减排标准方面,重点大中型企业吨钢综合能耗不得超过580 千克标准煤。

初稿中又提出,十二五期间,钢铁行业将继续推进联合重组,形成若干个具有较强自主创新能力和国际竞争力的特大型企业,国内排名前10 位钢铁企业的产能占全国产能比例达到60%以上。联合重组方面,十二五期间将形成5000 万吨至6000 万吨级以上的特大型钢铁企业, 以及若干家1000 万吨至3000 万吨级以上大型钢铁企业,其中重点企业包括宝钢、鞍钢、武钢、河北钢铁集团、首钢等大型钢铁集团。

产业布局方面,将推进钢铁工业向沿海沿江转移,沿海沿江钢铁企业产能占全国产能的比例要达到40%以上。初稿中还提到,在十二五期间,一方面要加快湛江、防城港、曹妃甸、山东沿海大型钢铁项目的建设,另一方面要完成福建、江苏沿海的钢铁专案前期准备工作。

至于在铁矿石等资源方面,规划初稿中提到,要鼓励国内钢铁企业从下游生产商向上游材料商延伸,要求企业加快国际合作,积极进行海外布局,争取「十二五」期间权益矿达到40%。

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 3. A股反弹逾1%成交续减短期处弱势
信报财经新闻 2011-01-27 中国经济, P14

连续调整两日的沪深股市昨天迎来温和反弹,沪综指上涨1.17%或31 点,报2708 点,不过两市成交量进一步缩减至1155 亿元人民币,市场观望气氛浓厚。

分析认为,近期股市仍处弱势,后市料难大幅上攻。

新加坡市值最大的经纪商大华继显表示,与其他新兴市场及历史本益比水平相比,内地股市被严重低估。不过,由于通胀压力和政策收紧,近期股市可能不会上涨,下半年随着通胀触顶、收紧气氛得以缓和之后,可能出现全面上涨。

该行还表示,投资者可选择受益美国经济加速成长的企业股票,如航运股、航空股和出口导向的制造业股。

昨天金融、房地产等权重板块走势低迷。国务院常务会议昨天强调,进一步做好房地产调控工作,地产板块或再受压;交运设备、普通机械、建筑业等板块整体涨幅靠前,受三部门联合发布水利建设基金筹集和管理办法的消息影响,水利股涨幅居前。

内地传媒报道,财政部、发改委和水利部日前联合出台《水利建设基金筹集和使用管理办法》,明确中央和地方水利建设基金的来源及使用方向,分析人士称,困扰农村水利建设的资金困境有望纾解,水利行业或迎来黄金十年。

国金证券表示,当日两市为超跌反弹,后市反弹力度仍要看成交量和热点板块的持续性,但整体上市场仍处于弱势,不具备大幅上攻的动能。

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 4. 外滙基金去年回报仅3.6% 上季投资收入55亿 较第3季跌九成
信报财经新闻 2011-01-27 金融, P06

外滙基金去年投资收入790 亿元,投资回报率3.6% , 全年计投资收入较2009 年减少26.65%。金管局总裁陈德霖表示,去年市场波动,投资表现已较预期理想。他对今年金融市场保持审慎态度,外滙基金在投资上将继续小心翼翼、步步为营。

今年投资续步步为营

虽然去年债券投资收入421 亿元,仍为外滙基金主要投资收入来源,但第4 季债券投资录得186 亿元亏损,令第4 季投资收入仅得55 亿元,较第3 季大跌92.62 %。

陈德霖表示,他对市场的忧虑去年先后出现,外滙基金上半年录得亏损,第3季及第4 季市场续有波动,美国11 月推出第二轮量化宽松措施后,美国10 年国库券孳息上扬,对债价不利;但期内股市收益不错,外滙基金下半年转亏为盈,表现较预期理想。

尽管第4 季港股投资收入较上一季减少71.33%,仅43 亿,全年仍有116 亿元投资收入贡献,连同外国股票全年279 亿元收入,股票总投资收入386 亿元。外滙投资则转盈为亏,录得31 亿元亏损,主要是年内欧元兑美元下跌6.5%。反映外滙基金盈亏状况的累计盈余去年增加379 亿元,至5914 亿元。

对于今年投资前景,陈德霖表示,尽管短期内美国股市在量化宽松政策、大企业盈利改善、消费情绪好转等利好因素下,可能会获得支持。

但美国的经济基础因素仍未出现根本的改善,如失业率高企、低迷的地产市场、美国家庭持续减债、美国联邦政府及地方政府的债务问题,都可能会为美国经济持续复苏带来负面影响。

同时,不肯定欧债危机是否纾缓抑或再次恶化,新兴经济体系如中国、印度及巴西正面对资金流入、高通胀和资产市场上升过急的压力,要采取一些调控及紧缩政策,有关因素均会对今年金融环境及投资市场带来颇大的不稳定性。

跑输恒指5.3%升幅

浸会大学财务及决策学系教授麦萃才认为,外滙基金投资回报率仅3.6%,并不算太高,但了解到外滙基金为维持联滙在投资上有所局限,故亦可接受。去年本港强积金平均回报率7.15%,恒生指数年内则录得5.3%的升幅。

外滙基金去年投资回报率3.6% ,若不计2008 年出现亏损,回报率为2004 年以来最低。

陈德霖解释,主要是过去2 年,资金持续流入香港,货币基础增加6000 多亿元至接近1 万亿元,影响支持货币基础的「支持组合」的表现,因为「支持组合」只可投资于流通性高的短期美债,无可避免只能提供很低,甚至近乎零的回报,但撇除「支持组合」,外滙基金的投资组合去年回报为6%。

金管局副总裁余伟文表示,自94 年至今,外滙基金每年平均回报5.9%,跑赢同期通胀1.6%。麦萃才预期市场波动,外滙基金今年要维持去年般的投资表现会有难度,他认为,股票市场特别是美股仍将录得升幅,由于利率低无可低,利率一旦掉头回升,对债价将有较大影响,债券投资甚具挑战。

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 5. 银根紧 银行天价利率吓熟客 1月新贷势逾1.2万亿料占全年17%
信报财经新闻 2011-01-27 中国经济, P14

中国监管部门虽已采取多种措施严控信贷投放,但银行在年初放贷的冲动仍难以遏制,1 月份逾万亿元(人民币.下同)放贷已导致银行信贷资源空前紧张,部分银行主动大幅上调贷款利率,上调幅度最多达45%。

上调幅度由10%至45% 《中国证券报》引述一国有大型银行资产负债部人士透露,目前银行当月信贷额度已全部投放完毕,总行已下死命令,本月各分支行放贷不得超出当月信贷额度。为保证信贷投放额度不超标,现在总行已发文要求各分支行提高贷款利率水平,一些银行贷款利率上调幅度介乎10%至45%。

评级较高、与银行多年合作的重点客户,银行一向会给予较佳的利率。一国有大型银行客户经理指出,该等客户本来是可适当下浮其贷款利率,但总行审批后给予的贷款利率已变成为基准利率或上浮10%左右。他说: 「这么高的利率水平已吓退一些潜在贷款客户。」即使这样,信贷资源仍显得格外紧张,而总行目前审批贷款周期亦较以往长。

有股份制银行人士透露,该行对公司类贷款提出效益优先要求,在谈项目的时候,贷款利率也尽量上浮。今年以来,中小企业贷款平均利率在基准利率基础上上浮约40%,但中小企业信贷需求依然旺盛。

尽管国务院总理温家宝表明要防止年初信贷非正常投放,但银行的放贷冲动未减。

《第一财经日报》引述权威人士透露,截至1 月24 日,商业银行1 月的新增贷款已达1.2 万亿元,直逼去年同期的1.39 万亿元的贷款量。若以全年信贷控制在7.0 万亿至7.5万亿元目标计算,到目前为止,1 月信贷增量已占全年比例的16% 至17%。

刘明康指1 月贷款较高

市传人行此前已定下各行1 月信贷额度,不能超过各行全年信贷目标的12%。

从目前来看,1 月前两周各行放贷额度已超越该比例。故银行目前的放贷已非常审慎,甚至有些银行已暂停对部分项目贷款的审批。

对于银行在1 月份放贷过猛,银监会主席刘明康出席达沃斯世界论坛时表示,中国的银行新增贷款在1 月份通常会比较高。人行副行长马德伦在网站上声明中再次强调,要保持信贷总量合理适度成长、控制好货币供给总量,以及继续优化信贷结构。要把稳定价格总水准放在更加突出的位置,将综合运用多种货币政策工具,管理流动性,实施差别准备金动态调整措施,引导金融机构保持信贷平稳适度成长。

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 6. 人行注资补节前资金缺口
信报财经新闻 2011-01-27 中国经济, P14

资金紧张情况持续,令内地银行间拆息继续上升,人民银行近期亦放水3500 亿元(人民币.下同),不过分析人士表示,春节临近期间对现金需求大,人行放水未能弥补需求缺口,预料春节后紧张局面会缓解。

紧张局面料春节后始纾缓

国泰君安首席经济学家李迅雷表示,当前市场流动性趋紧,一方面是由于年初各银行放贷过多,另一方面也因年初及春节前的整体消费支出较多,造成资金紧缺。

为缓解流动性紧张局面,近期人行与部分机构已进行了约3500 亿元逆回购操作,有业内人士指出,人行的注资数额未必能满足需要,主要原因为春节临近,企业需发放奖金和各项支出,以及普通居民的节日消费均增加,对现金需求非常大,银行需对此资金备付,因此近期市场资金仍会持续紧缺,不过,该人士认为,春节过后,这种情况自然会有所缓解。

李迅雷亦指出,人行注水对缓解流动性虽有一定作用,但影响较有限,不过他亦指出,流动性紧张是短期现象,只要人行维持暂停发行央票,市场总体流动性仍会呈宽松,因此预料人行再度大擧放水的可能性不大。

人行暂停发央票保持流动性上周起,人行已连续两周暂停发行央票,保持银行体系适度流动性,不过当前市场流动性仍趋紧,令银行间拆借利率延续升势,短期品种领涨。

昨天七天期上海银行间同业拆放利率报7.8725% , 升17 个点子, 十四天品种利率报8.2292%,升28 个点子。

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明报
 1. 国际金融公司发1.5亿元人债
明报 2011-01-27 经济, B03

【明报专讯】国际金融公司(IFC)宣布在港发行5 年期人民币债券,息率为1.8 厘,集资1.5 亿元人民币,用于在内地宣传能源效益及减少温室气体排放的业务上。承销商为汇丰银行。汇丰总经理兼环球银行及资本市场亚太区主管冯婉眉表示,IFC 在港发行首只人民币债券,展示发债人认同香港具备能力成为离岸人民币债券市场,并能吸引重要投资者。

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 2. 内地二套房需六成首期
明报 2011-01-27 经济, B01

【明报专讯】从限购令推向全国,到重庆、上海市长确认房产税试点,再到新华社连篇累牍的报道,内地房市新一轮调控早有预兆。昨日国家总理温家宝主持国务院常务会议,再推8项措施,辣手摧房价:要求地方政府在一季度公布房价控制目标;又将二套房首付比例调高到六成;对于五年内出售的新房,全额征收营业税。

地方政府首季须订房价目标

这是继去年4 月及9 月两度推出房地产调控政策后,中央在不足1 年时间内第3 度出招压抑楼市。诸条新政中,最辣条款是要地方政府确保各地房价增幅,跟经济增长速度和收入增加水平相平衡,并要在首季度制定以及公布房价控制目标。

瑞信分析师杜劲松认为,此条款将对房市带来极大影响,受伤最深的当属高端住房。为了确保实现价格调控目标,地方政府将限制高端房销售,或要求地产商低价抛售,无论是哪种情况都对高端房发展商造成很大打击。华润置地(1109) , 中国海外(0688) , 世房(0813) , 绿城(3900),龙湖(0960)等内房股均会受政策牵连。

购房不足5 年易手征楼价5%税

其他重要调整包括,二套房贷首付比例从五成调高到六成,同时还允许人民银行分支机构自行提高二套房的首期比例和贷款利率;住房不足5 年转手交易的,一律按销售收入全额征收5%的营业税,对比原先普通住房只需按销售差价缴纳营业税,炒房的税收代价已然翻倍。而重庆市长黄奇帆则在昨日透露,将当地房产税率分为10 级,他提到台湾台北的税率分别为1%,2%和3%, 「比我们收得狠」,而外界推测重庆税率将为1%左右。他又指出,此次针对高端房征税,而高端房占全市房屋总量仅一成,不会给老百姓造成负担。另外,市场传闻上海房产税将在本周启动,上海政府发言人称发令枪在中央政府,只等中央令下。

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 3. 内地银根紧 内银传加贷息
明报 2011-01-27 经济, B02

【明报专讯】内地资金市场持续紧张,除了陆续有内地银行暂停房贷,或取消房贷八五折优惠外,昨日内地更盛传, 部分内银甚至上调贷款利率,按基准利率上浮10%至45%。尽管人民银行先后于本月20 日及24 日启动逆回购操作,分别向市场注入规模为500 亿元及3000 亿元(人民币.下同)的资金,惟内地资金紧绌情况未见纾缓,上海银行同业隔夜及7 日拆息仍居高不下。

沪银行同业拆息再升

《中国证券报》昨日引述消息指出,内地银行年初信贷井喷式增长,导致银行信贷资源空前紧张,一些银行贷款利率出现普遍上浮,上调幅度在10%至45%不等。

报道并引述某国有大型银行资产负债部人士称,银行本月信贷额度已全部投放完毕,总行已下令,本月各分支行放贷不得超出当月信贷额度。而为保信贷投放额度不超标,总行已要求各分支行提高贷款利率水平,并给予指引,退出性行业的贷款利率,为基准利率上浮45%,至于一般准入性行业的贷款利率,则在基准利率基础上上浮30%左右,而总行级优质客户贷款利率下浮比例最多只能为5%。

有内地银行业分析员向本报表示,在内地资金成本上涨下,银行上调贷款利率是很正常的行为。他续指出,内银贷款定价能力于去年第4 季已见改善,在内地资金持续紧张的情况下,内银净息差进一步拓阔是很可能的结果。

人行本周一再启动逆回购操作,两周内已向市场合共注入3500 亿元,惟内地资金面紧张局势仍未解决。彭博数据显示,昨日上海银行同业隔夜及7 日拆息较上日进一步攀升,分别报7.7608%及8.05%。有分析预期,为配合当局通胀管理,内地资金流动性于第1 季仍会趋紧。

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中国日报香港版
 1. HKMA to diversify Exchange Fund
中国日报香港版 2011-01-27 HK Business, H02

Income drops to HK$79b in 2010 compared with HK$107.7b in 2009

By Oswald Chenchina daily

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) said Wednesday that it plans to diversify the investment portfolio of the Exchange Fund as it seeks to boost its returns.

The fund managing Hong Kong’s foreign exchange reserves will diversify into the stocks and bonds of emerging markets, private equity funds and overseas property. The announcement comes as the fund’s investment income in 2010 slumped 26.65 percent to HK$79 billion compared with HK$107.7 billion in 2009 – its lowest level in three years.

Meanwhile, although the HKMA said the fund’s performance achieved a “better than expected” return in 2010, its rate of return was lower. It rose just 3.6 percent in 2010 after gaining 5.9 percent the year before.

“The investment market in 2011 will still be volatile and uncertain, so the HKMA will remain cautious and prudent,” said HKMA Chief Executive Norman Chan. He added that diversification would be a gradual and orderly process.

Spending on assets including emerging-market securities, private equity funds and overseas real-estate has already started, Chan said.

“Yuan investment on the mainland will be another diversification strategy for the HKMA to pursue and the HKMA has been approved by the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) to invest 15 billion yuan in the mainland inter-bank bond market,” Chan said, adding that its investment was on a long-term basis.

The PBoC gave its approval to the HKMA to invest in the mainland inter-bank bond market in December 2010. Separately, the China Securities Regulatory Commission also gave a green light for the HKMA to invest in the mainland’s stock and bond markets through the QFII program in October.

The HKMA is still waiting for the State Administration of Foreign Exchange to set the quota for the QFII program, Chan said.

“Today’s comments may be intended to show that the HKMA supports the internationalization of the yuan,” Kevin Lai, an economist at Daiwa Capital Markets in Hong Kong, said Wednesday. “The (Exchange Fund’s) over-reliance on the US dollar is an inevitable reality.”

Foreign equities accounted for HK$27 billion of the latest return total, compared with HK$11.6 billion for Hong Kong equities. The return from bonds was HK$42.1 billion.

Currency movements led to a valuation loss of HK$3.1 billion.

The payment to the government’s fiscal reserves amounted to HK$33.8 billion and the fund’s accumulated surplus was increased by HK$37.9 billion to a total of HK$591.4 billion.

The fund’s total assets have swelled to HK$2.35 trillion in 2010 from HK$2.14 trillion in 2009, registering a hike of 9.81 percent.

“The notably high unemployment rate, very soft housing market, the households’ de-leveraging process and the US federal and municipal governments’ debt problems may affect the sustainability of US economic recovery; while Europe will continue to be affected by sovereign debt problem and fiscal sustainability,” Chan cautioned.

“Moreover, further macroeconomic tightening policies will be envisaged in the emerging markets because of the capital inflows, rising inflation and asset price surges in these regions,” Chan added.

Eddie Yue, HKMA deputy chief executive, added that the HKMA will inject more capital into its subsidiary company – the Eight Finance Investment Company (EFIC) – to pursue more alternative investments in 2011. The EFIC was formed in 2009 as the HKMA’s investment arm in alternative investments.

Hong Kong’s foreign-exchange reserves were $268.7 billion at the end of 2010, ranked after the mainland, Japan, Russia, Taiwan, India, South Korea and Brazil, making the city the owner of the world’s eighth-largest foreign-exchange reserves.

Bloomberg contributed to this story.

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 2. Steel industry plan forged
中国日报香港版 2011-01-27 Business Economics, P14

Restructuring seen as key to improvements in manufacturing

By Zhang QiChina Daily

BEIJING — China’s top 10 steel mills will be able to contribute 60 percent of the country’s total steel output and 40 percent of the nation’s steel production will come from coastal areas in the 12th Five-Year Plan (2011-2015) period, said an official who was involved in working out the blueprint for the nation’s steel industry, which is set to be finalized soon.

A draft of that plan highlighted the priorities of increasing the concentration of the scattered steel industry, upgrading the industry technology, eliminating outdated capacity and encouraging steel companies to move to coastal bases, said an official from China’s steel lobby, China Iron & Steel Association (CISA), who wished to remain anonymous.

For several years, the nation has been encouraging big mills to merge with rivals to create more cohesive steel groups in an effort to address overcapacity, pollution and a disadvantageous position in price negotiations for iron ore.

China, the world’s largest steel producer and iron ore consumer, has less say in annual price talks with the big three global miners — Vale, BHP and Rio Tinto — because of the low concentration of its steel industry.

Media reported earlier this month that BHP has moved to a monthly set pricing after the three miners abandoned a 40-year tradition of annual iron ore negotiations in March and turned to quarterly pricing.

Hu Kai, an analyst from Umetals.com, said Chinese steel companies have to pay an extra $200 million this January for iron ore imported from BHP since it made that shift.

The central government aims to create several steel giants with an annual production capacity of over 50 million tons through mergers and acquisitions to reverse the situation.

Hebei Iron and Steel Group Co Ltd, China’s biggest steelmaker by output, said in January that it agreed to take 10 percent stakes in seven private steel mills to expand its production capacity and increase consolidation in Hebei province.

Hebei province— where 60 percent of the capacity comes from small private steel mills — is drafting a plan to reduce the number of its steel mills from 88 to 10 during the next five years.

The official from CISA said that because of increasing environmental pressure and the need to control logistical costs, the central government plans to gradually move its steel production to coastal areas.

According to the official, the government will accelerate the restructuring of the steel industry that is focused on China’s coast — with Anshan Steel in Liaoning province; Shougang in Caofeidian, Hebei province; Baosteel in Zhanjiang, Guangdong province; and Wuhan Iron and Steel Group in Fangchenggang, in the Guangxi Zhuang autonomous region.

For instance, China’s second-largest steelmaker by output, Baosteel, is expected to acquire Guangdong steel enterprises as part of its Zhanjiang project plan, a steel-production base with a planned annual capacity of 10 million tons along the coast of Guangdong province.

The official also said the 12th Five-Year Plan will highlight the preparation of new coastal bases in Fujian and Jiangsu provinces.

Another target of the plan is to increase the proportion of Chinese steelmakers’ self-supplying of iron ore by expanding domestic ore production and acquiring more overseas resources, he said.

Chinese steelmakers have been looking in recent years for more overseas ore assets to cut their reliance on expensive imports.

Deng Qilin, chairman of China’s third-largest steelmaker, Wuhan Steel, said his company will become self-sufficient in iron ore supplies in the next five years.

China’s domestic iron ore supplies have been rising for the last two years. During the first nine months of 2010, domestic iron ore output jumped 26 percent year-on-year to 780 million tons.

Domestic iron ore output is expected to exceed 1.3 billion tons within three to five years, said Zhou Zhongshu, president of China Minmetals Corp.

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 3. Inflation concerns persist as prices increase
中国日报香港版 2011-01-27 Business Companies, P15

By LI WOKECHINA DAILY

BEIJING — Despite a series of government measures to curb inflation, prices of foods and staple goods have continued to rise, fuelling concerns over future tightening policies. However, experts have ruled out the possibility of sharp economic fluctuations.

The National Bureau of Statistics on Wednesday announced that prices of around 40 staple goods, such as crude oil and iron ore, have increased during the past fortnight.

Meanwhile, the Ministry of Commerce said on its website on Tuesday that wholesale prices for 18 types of vegetables increased 12.6 percent over the past week, as a result of planting and transportation difficulties caused by freezing temperatures in Southern China.

Some experts are worried that the inflation rate will continue to climb this month as demand surges ahead of the Spring Festival, which begins on Feb 3.

Lu Zhengwei, senior economist at Industrial Bank Co, forecast the consumer price index, the main gauge of inflation, will accelerate to 5.3 percent this month, outpacing November’s 28-month high of 5.1 percent.

The government has vowed to keep the inflation rate below 4 percent and has shifted its monetary policy from “moderate” to “prudent” this year because of concerns over credit-driven inflation.

Meanwhile the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), the country’s central bank, has made price control a top priority.

The PBOC has raised the benchmark interest rate twice and increased the reserve ratio requirement rate for banks seven times since January 2010.

China’s banks lent 7.95 trillion yuan ($1.21 trillion) last year, breaching the government’s credit target of 7.5 trillion yuan.

By Jan 24 this year, lending had reached 1.2 trillion yuan, and some banks may have exceeded the monthly quota within the first two weeks of the year, the China Securities Journal said.

Many economists agree that further tightening measures will be rolled out in the first half of the year to mop up excessive liquidity.

“Further increases in interest rates and the reserve requirement ratio are expected in February,” Lu said.

According to the HSBC economist, Sun Junwei, the central bank is likely to raise the reserve requirement ratio at least three times over the course of 2011, coupled with two interest rate hikes.

“The tightened monetary policies will not have a devastating impact on the markets, either domestically or overseas,” said Sun.

“On the one hand, the markets at home and abroad are all rebounding from the economic crisis. On the other, China’s prudent policy will prevent the domestic economy from overheating and will avoid a hard landing.”

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星岛日报
 1. 港股终止跌 交投续淡
星岛日报 2011-01-27 星岛财经, B02

期指结算前炒家转仓,港股好淡争持,高低波幅逾三百点,成交只有六百八十二亿元,分析员表示,由于下周是农历年假,投资者入市意欲不高。证券界人士指出,好友乘内地股市反弹,再推高建行(939),和黄(013)及腾讯(700),令港股在午后回升。恒指收报二三八四三点,升五十四点,结束连续四日的跌势。

中大全球政治经济社会科学硕士课程兼任讲师邓声兴表示,港股止跌回升,但成交亦少,主要是临近期指结算,下周也是农历年假,投资者入市意欲不高。而且市场担心加息,内地拆息抽高,资金紧绌下,市场资金亦被抽掉回内地。他估计后市会在二三六○○点至二四三○○点徘徊。

腾讯创新高

A股造好,沪指高收百分之一点二,重返二千七百点关口,收二七○八,深成指升百分之一点三,报一一六○○。恒生指数期指收报二三八五八点,升七十七点,高水十五点,成交逾十一万张。国企指数升近八十八点,收报一二六四九点。

重磅股方面,滙控(005)跌近百分之一,收报八十六元;中移动(941)跌六角,收报七十六点三元;中国人寿(2628)升五仙,收报三十点九元;工商银行(1398)及港交所(388)无升跌。

招商局(144)与中信泰富(267)是升幅最大的蓝筹,均升约百分之三点一;宣布设立五十亿元人民币产业共赢基金的腾讯控股,创收市新高,收报二百零二点八元,升近百分之一点九。

华耐股东悉数减持

华耐控股(1020)宣布,股东柴希树于本周二以每股一点六元价格,悉数出售在华耐的百分之九持股,配售价较昨日收市价一点七元,折让近百分之六。

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 2. 投资内银债市 去年额度150亿
星岛日报 2011-01-27 星岛财经, B02

人行去年已批准金管局投资内地银行间债市,但额度一直未见透露。金管局总裁陈德霖表示,去年人行批准金管局参与内地多家银行债市的额度为一百五十亿元人民币。他指投资细节仍与人行倾谈中,希望不久将来可投资。陈德霖又表示,现时已开展了几种类别的投资,包括新兴巿场的股票和债券、私募基金以及海外的投资物业等。

多元投资楼股债基金

金管局副总裁余伟文补充指,获批投资内地债市的额度属一次性,将会以港元与人行兑换人民币资金,并指属长线投资非为短期炒卖。

投资在人民币资产市场方面,陈德霖表示已取得很多的进展,去年十月获得中国证监会批准为合资格海外机构投资者(QFII),可以投资内地交易所上市的股票和债券。他指现等待外汇管通知额度等细节,同时强调外汇基金参与人民币业务属起步阶段,会按部就班。余伟文补充指,由于投资具市场敏感性,因此不便透露配置细节安排。

陈德霖说:「在不影响外汇基金有足够流动资金去维持货币和金融稳定下,金管局过去几年都逐步将少量资金投放在更多元化的资产类别,目的是分散风险及在中、长线提高回报率。金管局在资产多元化方面的工作是按部就班地进行。」

余伟文补充,投资私募基金及海外物业以作收租,主要因为有关资产与其他项目相连性不高,有助外汇基金分散风险,同时强调物业与香港无关。

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 3. 安东石油拟拆管材业上市
星岛日报 2011-01-27 星岛财经, B03

把握石油开采行业复甦的趋势,石油服务商安东石油(3337)副总裁皮至峰定下目标,将年增长逾百分之三十的完井、井下作业以及钻井服务三大业务比重?由目前的占营业比重百分之七十五提升至九十以上。年增速逾百分之十的管材业务则计画独立发展,正考虑未来引入投资者或者分拆上市。

皮至峰表示,过去几年已投入五亿元开发完井技术服务业务,今后三年将投入三至四亿元于井下作业以及钻井服务,用作购买设备。他强调新技术研发对油服行业至关重要,每年投入研发开支出达到收入百分之八,同时亦聘用大量技术人员。公司去年更成立油气田开发部,计画展开从设计到钻井的一体化服务,至今已获得一千万合同。随着石油行业需求强劲增长,他相信有关业务会爆发性增长,综合毛利率可保持在百分之四十至四十五。

安东石油目前业务七成以上为天然气新井服务,于国内主要客户为中石油、中石化以及承包油田区块的国外油公司,海外则主要集中于中国投资的项目,皮至峰指未来三年目标海外收入比重可由目前的百分之十四提升至四十。

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 4. 内地房贷二万亿增27%
星岛日报 2011-01-27 星岛财经, B02

人民银行昨公布二○一○年贷款投向分析报告称,去年内地新增房地产贷款二点零二万亿元(人民币,下同),较○九年增长逾二成七,但增长较○九年底回落十点六个百分点。其中地产开发贷款较○九底大幅缩水,上年底贷款增长下滑接近八成。

开发贷款大缩水80%

央行称,去年中长期贷款增长回落,票据融资继续减少;文化产业中长期贷款增长创历史新高;消费贷款增长提高;外汇贷款增长大幅下降,增长较上年底下降逾三成六。

人行最新数据显示,去年新增的二点零二万亿元房地产相关贷款中,地产开发贷款新增一千六百四十七亿元,年末余额按年增长百分之二十四点七,但增长较上年底大幅下降七十九点五个百分点;房产开发贷款新增四千二百六十九亿元,年末余额按年增百分之二十三,比上年底高七点二个百分点;个人购房贷款新增一点四万亿元,年末余额按年劲增百分之二十九点四,比上年底降低十三点七个百分点。

重庆房产税不逾3%

另外,重庆筹备中的房产税方案,逐渐有更多细节曝光。重庆市市长黄奇帆日前表示,重庆打算把房屋划分为十个等级,以征收不同税率的房产税,并暗示重庆的房产税率最高也不会超过百分之三。

黄奇帆早前到台湾实地考察当地房产税的情况,台北的房产税主要针对豪宅,目前税率介乎百分之一至三,他形容台北「比我们收得狠」;换言之,重庆计画中征收的房产税或低于百分之三。市场原本估计,重庆今后对豪宅征收的房产税税率,可能在百分之零点五至百分之二之间。

除了开征房产税外,内地银行进一步收紧房贷,北京部分银行已取消首套房贷优惠,甚至有银行把二套房贷利率,由基准利率的一点一倍上调至一点三至一点五倍。

内银不良贷款续「双降」

另外,银监会公布的最新统计显示,截至去年底中国境内商业银行不良贷款余额和比例继续保持「双降」,其中,不良贷款余额降至四千二百九十三亿元,不良贷款率降至百分之一点一四。而○九年底,该两项指标各为四千九百七十三亿元及百分之一点五八。

统计还显示,去年底商业银行拨备覆盖率达到百分之二百一十八点三,比上一年末上升六十三点三个百分点,较三季度末提高十五点三个百分点。

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文汇报
 1. 外汇基金转多元投资 将投内地债市A股 金管局:稳步调高投资风险 冀增中长线回报
文汇报 2011-01-27 重要新闻, A08

香港文汇报讯 (记者 马子豪) 外汇基金昨日派发2010年成绩表,期内投资收入较09年减少27%,回报率亦仅得3.6%,逊于09年。新一年,金管局将紧贴市场步伐,为其加入大热的人民币资产。首先,金管局已获得人行批准参与内地银行间债市,额度为150亿元人民币;另正等待外管局公布QFII(合格境外机构投资者)资格,准备投资A股。除南水北调外,金管局亦将涉足海外物业及私募基金等,以稳步姿势调高投资风险,冀提高中长线回报。

是次金管局所获之150亿元人民币内地银行间债市的投资额,细节仍在处理中,确实批出日期未定,至于会投向那类型资产,金管局以市场敏感资料为由拒绝回答,只称会坚守长期分散投资此「金科玉律」,善用额度。而额度属一次性,金管局指会在额度耗尽用后,再与内地当局商讨是否加额。

获内银债市投资额度150亿

而金管局早于去年10月已获得的QFII的资格,目前仍在有待国家外管局就额度的通报及细节安排。一旦获批额度后,金管局则可投资内地交易所上市股票和债券。

金管局总裁陈德霖昨在记者会中强调,外汇基金行将涉足的人民币资产,仅属其逾2万亿的资产中一小部分;而金管局未来将透过人行兑换人民币,作为投资资金。

将购海外物业新兴市场股市

除将资产投靠人民币外,外汇基金投资亦将循其他方向走向资产多元化。去年金管局向其新设的附属投资公司注入147亿元,投资新兴市场股票及债券、私募基金,甚至买入海外物业赚取租金。

副总裁余伟文昨在简布会上,多番以市场敏感为由,拒绝透过其多元化投资的资产配置,强调以上投资均为流动性及安全性俱高,并续以追求中长期稳定回报为依归,未来仍会继续向附属投资公司注资。

纵使外汇基金投资走向多元,并由传统上投资于港股及美债,到渐向新兴经济体投资,但展望今年的投资环境,陈德霖指,虽然在短期内美国股巿在QE2、大企业盈利改善、消费情绪好转等利好因素下,可能会得到支持,但美国的经济基础因素仍然未有出现根本上的改善,尤其是美国的高失业率、低迷的地产巿场、美国家庭持续减债,美国联邦政府和地方政府的债务问题,都可能会为美国经济持续复甦带来负面影响。

宏观市场仍不稳 需步步为营

另外,他续指出,现在也不肯定欧洲的债务危机能否获得真正纾缓,抑或是又再次恶化。同时,新兴经济体系,包括中国、印度和巴西都正面对资金流入、高通胀和资产巿场上升过急的压力,亦在不同方式和程度上采取一些调控和紧缩政策和措施。这一系列因素都会为今年的宏观金融环境和投资巿场带来颇大的不稳定性和不确定性。故在两面夹击下,外汇基金投资仍将保持审慎态度,步步为营。

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 2. 金管局投资将趋进取
文汇报 2011-01-27 重要新闻, A08

 香港文汇报讯(记者 马子豪)肩负本港货币及金融稳定的外汇基金,一直往单靠债券及股票型投资,故被讥为投资保守兼回报率低。事实上,自现任总裁陈德霖于08年10月上任后,已透过成立附属投资公司,以及向3大美资对冲基金招手,积极探索较高回报的投资机会。

设附属公司投资较高风险

 去年4月金管局透过年报首度披露,外汇基金成立一家名为Eight Finance Investment Company Limited的附属公司(简称EightFinance),以更好管理部分投资项目风险,投资方向则偏向多元化及较高风险,如新兴市场股票及债券、海外物业等。09年金管局向其贷出28.02亿元,去年则向其注入147亿元,从数额见,金管局数年间已渐走向进取的投资方向。

 从公司注册处名单上显示,EightFinance的三名董事为金管局副总裁余伟文、储备管理助理总裁朱兆荃,及直接投资主管许龙鹤。成立一家投资控股的有限公司目的是,因投资活动或引起不同的合约或法律责任,一旦因涉足较高风险的投资而有所损失,亦不会拖累整个投资组合。

向对冲基金私募基金靠拢

 除了成立自家投资公司,金管局亦向外资对冲基金及私募基金靠拢。去年《金融时报》曾报道,金管局接触了3家美资基金公司,包括对冲基金Bain Capital LL(贝恩资本),以及私募基金Blackstone Group(百仕通)及Kohlberg Kravis Roberts(KKR)。

 金管局发言人当时回应时,未有直接评论该报道真伪,外汇基金的投资组合,会依照审慎管理外汇基金的原则不时进行检讨,以达到外汇基金的法定目的。惟基于市场敏感性的原因,当局不评论外汇基金的投资运作。据悉,有关投资将会集中在亚洲。

 以往,金管局向来视「审慎」为外汇基金投资的金科玉律。现任总裁陈德霖于去年初时曾表示,外汇基金投资策略上会继续「持盈保泰」。前总裁任志刚亦曾指出,外汇基金的运用及管理,对货币及金融的稳定起关键性作用,故策略保守一点较好。

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 3. 传内银大幅上调贷款利率 幅度10%至45%不等 部分项目暂停审批
文汇报 2011-01-27 中国经济, B04

 香港文汇报讯(记者 涂若奔)据《中国证券报》报道,由于1月份前两周内地银行信贷量井喷,令央行规定的信贷资源空前紧张。为确保投放额度不超标,一些银行贷款利率出现普遍上浮的趋势,上调幅度在10%至45%不等,甚至有银行已暂停对部分项目贷款的审批,只对若干涉及民生贷款、总行级重点客户贷款和住房按揭贷款给予支持,不过「准入门槛」亦已有所提高。

 报道引述未具名的国有大型银行资产负债部人士表示,由于1月份的信贷额度全部投放完毕,总行已下「死命令」,要求各分支行放贷不得超出当月信贷额度,并发文要求提高贷款利率水平。对「退出性行业」,贷款利率在基准利率基础上上浮45%;对一般准入性行业则上浮30%左右。同时亦相应上调适度准入性行业贷款利率;唯有对「总行级优质客户」可适当下浮,但比例最多只能为5%。

1月份信贷额已全部投放

 对于外界关心的房地产业贷款业务,有内地银行亦提出「硬性」要求,其中对重点客户尽可能提高贷款利率;总行级别的优质高端客户则不能低于同档期基准利率;分行级重点客户在基准利率基础上上浮10%;一般客户上浮15%。亦有银行已取消对首套房贷的优惠利率,规定首套房贷利率执行同期基准利率,二套房贷利率标准仍维持同期基准利率的1.1倍。

中小企信贷在基准息加40%

 报道又引述某股份制银行人士披露,中小企业贷款利率也在迅速飙升。2011年以来,该行中小企业贷款平均利率在基准利率基础上已上浮40%左右。不过,中小企业信贷需求依然旺盛。

 据了解,人行此前曾有规定,内地各银行1月份信贷额度不能超过各行全年信贷目标的12%,但数据显示各行放贷额度均已突破该比例。有消息称,工商银行、农业银行、中国银行和建设银行1月前两周新增信贷已超过3500亿元人民币;银行业新增信贷总量更已接近万亿元大关。

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 4. 中金提醒留意欧债余波
文汇报 2011-01-27 文汇财经, B01

 香港文汇报讯(记者 卓建安)中金公司首席策略师、研究部联席负责人黄海洲表示,今年欧洲债务问题将继续对全球投资市场的稳定造成影响,投资者应该注意今年4月及7、8月欧债或需要再融资,可能会对投资市场造成震盪。

 黄海洲昨日出席中金公司与香港媒体团拜时表示,今年欧债问题可能会成为全球投资市场波动性的重要变量,若4月及7、8月欧债再融资问题解决得不好,或会引起全球市场的波动。不过,若有关问题解决得好,欧洲股市可能会成为今年表现最好的股市之一。

美国两年内加息机会微

 目前很多专家预测美国最快明年才会加息,黄海洲对此表示,虽然近期美国经济复甦的势头较预期理想,今年美国经济增长有可能达到4%,甚至5%,美国失业率有可能会降至8%,明年底有可能会进一步降至7%,但美国结构失业的问题难以改变,因此预计美国宽松的货币政策将持续,美国提早加息的机会不大,相信在明年底之前美国都不会加息。

 黄海洲指出,美国不会提早加息的原因还包括:一是上世纪90年代日本因加息过急导致经济复甦受阻,而美国联储局主席伯南克是研究经济衰退的专家,料不会重蹈日本覆辙;二是从美国国债角度来看,通胀率高对其有利,因此在通胀升温初期美国不会加息;三是市场流传的一个故事称,美国前总统老布什在被问及其竞选连任总统失败的原因时称,是因为当时美国加息太快所致,相信美国总统奥巴马会吸取有关教训。

 中金首席经济学家彭文生在同一场合表示,1月份中国通胀可能达到5.5%,2月份通胀仍持续高企,而预计通胀可能在第一季度见顶,而之前市场预测通胀要到第二季度才会见顶。他预计,2月份人行加息25点子的可能性较大,其后或会在第二季度再加息一次。

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 5. 中国高铁有望驶进美国
文汇报 2011-01-27 财经新闻, B02

 香港文汇报讯(记者 李理 北京报道)即将调任日本的通用电气(GE)副总裁、大中华区总裁兼首席执行官罗邦民(Mark Norbom)昨日在北京向香港文汇报记者透露,GE引进中国南车(1766)高铁技术并竞标美国加州与佛州高铁项目的胜算机会很大,合作料将很快取得进展。惟他未透露更多项目竞标的细节。

南车GE组合资竞标

 罗邦民在出席中国国际经济交流中心「经济每月谈」活动时向记者表示,上述标书包括项目为美国带来工作数量等具体内容。他说:「GE与中国南车将携手与来自日本、加拿大以及欧洲国家的公司展开竞争。不过,由于项目技术卓越且有助于增加美国就业,因此存在很大胜算,GE与南车的高铁技术合作项目料将很快取得进展。」此外,他亦坦承美国在「高铁技术」领域并没有特别领先的企业。

 GE副董事长约翰赖斯早前曾公开表示,GE与中国南车的合作将为美国大约3,500个高技术制造业就业岗位提供保障和支持。另外,中国南车曾于去年12月与GE签订合作框架协议,双方将在美国建立各持股50%的合资公司,并竞标美国的高速铁路和城市轨道项目。

 罗邦民在同一场合称,GE现时在华的1万4千名员工中有2千人专注研发,今后还将增设更多研发岗位。

中国铁道部GE签备忘

 此外,南车与GE「联姻」亦获得中国铁道部的支持。新华社昨日报道称,中国铁道部已和GE签署高速铁路动车组技术转让备忘录,双方达成一致,支持中国南车与GE在美成立合资公司,把中国的高速铁路技术带到美国。

 公开资料显示,中国南车是中国最大轨道交通制造商,也是全球大型轨道交通装备企业,在研制高、中速动车组和城市轨道交通车辆方面具有丰富经验和先进技术,其研制的「和谐号」CRH380A曾创下时速486.1公里的世界铁路运营最高速度。

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东方日报
 1. 金管获150亿内银债市额度
东方日报 2011-01-27 产经, B02

金融管理局昨正式宣布,已获中国人民银行批准150亿元(人民币?下同)额度,投资内地银行间债市。不过,分析认为,有关投资只占外汇基金很小比例,对推动外汇基金盈利增长作用不大。

余伟文表示,投资内地银行间债券将是长期投资。(苏文杰摄)

金管局在投资人民币资产市场方面进展良好,金管局总裁陈德霖表示,去年十二月获人行批准参与内地银行间债市后,已获150亿元投资额度,很快会展开有关投资。

投资内地银行间债市

金管局副总裁余伟文表示,投资内地银行间债券将是长期投资,额度暂为一次性,用罄后是否需要提高则属「后话」,现时金管局没有人民币资金,将会以港元兑换为人民币后购买人民币资产,细节依然需要与人行商讨。

宝华世纪资本市场首席经济师及财富管理策略顾问陈宝明表示,虽然人民币汇价持续上涨,人债息率会上扬,但因金管局于内地银行间债市的投资额度被限制,所以相信即使开展有关投资,对外汇基金的盈利推动能力有限。

此外,金管局去年十月获中证监批准为合格境外机构投资者(QFII),可投资于内地交易所上市的股票及债券,现时有待国家外汇管理局的额度通报及其他细节安排。

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苹果日报
 1. 调控第三波杀到5年内转售须缴税 中央再压楼市二套房首期60%
苹果日报 2011-01-27 财经要闻, B01

【本报讯】中央调控楼市第三波「杀到」,势压炒风。国务院总理温家宝昨主持常务会议,推严打炒楼的「国八条」,其中个人在5年内转售二套房,需按销售收入全额征收住房营业税,此招与本港于去年11月出招遏楼价措施相同。此外,更将二套房首付金额由50%提高至60%,以及要求地方政府要设定新建房价控制目标。上述「三板斧」被认为将直接冲击楼市,证券界指,内房股股价今日势下跌,宜暂回避。记者:周燕芬

「国八条」中未见房产税的踪影,并非代表中央弃用房产税。据了解,将于3月召开人大会议,若楼价仍压不下,届时大有可能推房产税。中央频密遏楼市,令成效渐失。对于「国八条」,房地产商上实城市开发(563)总裁倪建达认为,招数对已上市的地产公司影响不大。

内房股今恐受压

不过,今次招数是针对炒卖成本,来得实在。上海永庆房屋有限公司总经理陈史翎称,二套房首付提高至60%,一套300万元商品房,原来需自备150万元(人民币.下同),现要多付30万元。

新的个人转让住房营业税政策,以一套08年100万元买入,现在以200万元出售的二手房,按5.5%的营业税计,旧制只需缴纳5.5万元,新例要交纳11万元税款。

单上述两辣招,已可严打炒买活动。「国八条」对地产商影响肯定有。倪建达认为,措施有助冷却投资者冲动行为,他预期,每家发展商将找寻其发展方向,调整其投资节奏和进度,该公司将视乎市场需求表现而作决定。银行方面,一间股份制银行信贷部老总表示,对银行来说,按揭贷款会有所减少,但是影响是比较有限的。

招商证券投资银行董事总经理温天纳则怀疑调高二套房首付比例成效,因为能购买二套房的投资者会有一定财政实力。不过由于面对市场不稳定因素,或多或少会对内房股以至内银股有影响,预期今天(周四)内房股股价或下调2%至3%。

美联物业(1200)中国行政总裁郭应龙则指出, 中央再作出限购措施,但「上有政策下有对策」, 投资者可以借他人名义购房, 以往亦因应政策出现假离婚现象。

对于要求地方政府订出今年房地产价格合理目标,倪建达相信是指与当地生产总值相应的楼价增幅,不可以超越有关幅度。温天纳对此有所质疑,因为城市不同地段「由一环、二环以至六环」均有不同楼价,最终结果可能会引起争拗。

中央最新压抑楼市措施重点

.地方政府需于季内,按当地经济、人均收入及市民买楼能力,定出今年新建住房价格目标

.个人购房不足5年转让,需按销售收入全额征收住房营业税

.对定价明显超过周边房价水平的项目,进行土地增值税清算和稽查

.购买第二套房首期不低于60%,贷款利率不低于基准利率1.1倍

.今年商品房用地供应不低于前2年年均实际供应量

.住房用地若逾两年还未取得施工许可证,将被收回并遭罚款

.对拥有二套房以上当地户籍家庭、拥有一套房非当地户籍家庭,暂停区内再买楼

.制造、散佈虚假有关楼市消息人士,将被追究责任

资料来源:国务院

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 2. 港银快测试流动性标准
苹果日报 2011-01-27 财经要闻, B03

【本报讯】金融海啸过后,巴塞尔委员会要求金融机构有更高的资本水平,为配合巴塞尔协定III要求,金管局昨日向认可金融机构发出通函,其中指出,金管局拟于今年首季进行第二轮定量影响测算(QIS),以评估有关流动性标准对银行的影响。

这轮QIS将主要选取首轮QIS没有包括在内的一些有限制持牌银行进行。

金管局助理总裁简嘉兰在通函中指出,金管局目前意向是将有关新的流动性标准,应用于所有本地认可金融机构,金管局亦期望有关标准应适用于有关金融机构的海外注册分行。

场外产品结算将发指引

要执行巴塞尔协定III要求,金管局指要修改《银行业条例》,若要在2013年1月起执行首阶段要求,便须于2011至12年立法年度内提出有关立法修订,金管局期望今年第三至第四季开始就有关修订作法定谘询。

通函亦有就场外交易产品倡设中央结算所着墨,金管局称,目前正就有关清算及滙报标准向金融机构收集意见,期望今年内向银行发出指引。

金管局重申,不认为银行在执行有关新要求会遇到大问题,就算一些资本须就新规扣除,本港银行资本比率仍能高于新要求。

金管局副总裁阮国恒去年下旬曾表示,本港银行平均股本资本高达10.4%,即使扣除少数股东权益,本港银行的资本充足比率仍高于巴塞尔协定III要求。巴塞尔协定III将核心资本的下限,从现行的2%提高至4.5%,银行同时须准备高至2.5%缓冲资本。

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 3. 信贷紧张 内银加贷息房产商捱打
苹果日报 2011-01-27 财经要闻, B01

内地严控今年信贷投放,适逢农历年关将至,市场资金紧绌问题更见凸显,内地银行贷款利率普遍上浮。内地媒体报道,贷息上浮幅度介乎10%至45%不等。分析员认为,中小企及一些负债水平相对高的企业,料受贷款成本急升打击盈利,内银则受惠贷款议价能力提升,得以扩阔息差,利好业绩表现。

有内地银行主管表示:「贷款利率上调一成至四成着实不足为奇,这是基于供求问题,政府表示今年要收紧贷款,加上存款准备金率屡次上调,面对目前市场资金抽紧,贷款利率自然向上走。每年年初,钱都比较紧,今年是加上中央收紧信贷令情况更厉害。」

内银受惠大国企无碍

一名不愿具名中资分析员解释,自从加息及提高存款准备金率后,市场信贷供应少,借贷利率往往因而上调,内银是其中的得益者,其他负债高的企业及房产企业便料因要借「贵钱」而首当其冲,大国企或政策重点扶持企业则一般影响不大。事实上,一些自知难获优惠贷款利率的企业,已于去年相继透过自行发债集资,避免向银行以高息借贷。

监管机构继续对控制信贷投放口径一致。人行上海总部网站发出通告,副行长马德伦表示要保持信贷总量合理适度地成长、控制好货币借给总量,及继续优化信贷结构。马氏并称,将综合运用多种货币政策工具,管理流动性,实施差别准备金动态调整措施,引导金融机构保持信贷平稳适度成长。

刘明康料GDP增少于10%

无独有偶,中国银监会主席刘明康表示,当局非常关注内地通胀问题,中国今年的国内生产总值(GDP)将告别双位数的快速增长。

《中国证券报》引述内地大型银行消息指,总行发文要求各分行支行提高贷款利率水平,对退出性行业,按贷款利率基准上浮45%;一般准入性行业则上浮约30%,就算优质客户,贷款利率下浮比例最多亦只能为5%。

贷款利率上升的利淡类别

影响不大类别:大型国企、负债比率低企业、政策支持行业,如新能源及高科技企业等

借贷利率预测:预期不变,甚至下浮

利淡类别:房地产开发商、中小企

借贷利率预测:持续上升机会高,上浮幅度可高逾四成

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成报
 1. 渣打料港股下半年趋好
成报 2011-01-27 财经, B03

  【记者张伊曼报道】渣打银行(香港)有限公司财富管理投资策略师梁振辉表示,今年长线宜留意亚洲股票、新兴市场股市及商品,短线方面则宜留意美股、日股及商品的升值潜力。港股在政策不明朗的影响下受阻,预料下半年比上半年好。地产方面,梁氏建议选择较低风险的商业相关物业。梁氏认为在美国经济好转的带动下,台湾及南韩等新兴市场较被看好。美国及日本股市短线存在反弹动力,唯仍需留意有关风险,包括通胀情况恶化、经济数据未如理想及亚洲出现资金流走等情况。

  外币方面,梁氏估计美元先升后跌,下半年料回软,利好外币;欧元亦先升后跌,预期兑美元波幅在1.2至1.4之间。梁氏又预料人民币全年约升6%,唯升幅不会一面倒,走势或会比较反覆,步伐亦较温和。另外,梁氏指出今年整体商品市场明朗,或会比股票市场更理想。金价预料可连升十一年,料全年平均价每安士1400美元,预料全年升幅达2.1%。纽约期油则预料全年平均价为91美元,波幅预计在80至100美元之间。

  梁续称,香港目前经济稳定,就业改善,资金充裕,相信楼市今年将有足够支持,但宜留意通胀情况变化及经济数据未如理想等风险。

  

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南华早报 A
 1. PCCW strikes deal with Telstra to restructure assets in joint venture
南华早报 2011-01-27 BIZ, BIZ2

PCCW, Hong Kong's biggest telecommunications carrier, has forged a deal with Telstra International to restructure the assets in their 50-50 joint venture Reach Global Services, a submarine cable and satellite systems operator.

In a filing with the Hong Kong stock exchange, PCCW said it would benefit from the restructuring in terms of increased operational efficiencies and the recovery of certain assets that were previously invested in Reach.

Reach, which was established in 2001 and mainly serves the customers of its two shareholders, operates a submarine cable network that stretches more than 364,000 kilometres and connects more than 240 markets worldwide.

It runs what it says is Asia's largest commercial teleport, with more than 20 operating satellite antennas, in Hong Kong. A teleport comprises all the dishes, receivers, transmitters and other equipment on the ground, in one location, that are needed to send and receive satellite signals.

The majority of Reach's international assets will be split between PCCW and Telstra International, a Hong Kong-based unit of Australian telecommunications giant Telstra.

Reach, also known by its Chinese trade name Hang Tung or Everlasting Communications in English, will continue to manage certain assets and operations, mostly located in Hong Kong.

Telstra International said it anticipated recognising an accounting gain of US$50 million upon signing and a further US$80 million to US$100 million on completion of the restructuring.

Telstra International, which oversees its parent firm's international carrier assets and network-interface systems as well as all properties in China, said the Reach restructuring formed part of an ongoing review of the company's Asian assets to drive shareholder value.

Parent Telstra last August agreed to sell its 51 per cent stake in SouFun Holdings, operator of the mainland's most popular property website, to two private equity firms and existing shareholders for about US$400 million. Telstra had acquired the Beijing-based company in August 2006 for US$254 million.

PCCW did not provide its estimated gain from the restructuring, but said operational efficiencies at Reach would contribute better operating margin and an enhanced competitive position in the market for international connectivity services.

The restructuring agreement, which is due for completion in the first half of this year, is not expected to impact PCCW's financial results for last year.

Copyright (c) 2011. South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.

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 2. Exchange Fund to invest in mainland for higher returns
南华早报 2011-01-27 BIZ, BIZ1

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority will soon start investing in mainland stocks and bonds to improve the performance of the Exchange Fund.

While Hong Kong's retail investors bet on further yuan appreciation, HKMA chief executive Norman Chan Tak-lam said the plan to invest in yuan products was aimed at diversifying risk and improving returns.

The Exchange Fund, which exists to support the Hong Kong dollar's peg to the US dollar, is managed by the HKMA to invest in bonds, Hong Kong and overseas stocks, and foreign currencies.

The fund made a profit of HK$79 billion last year, 25 per cent below the HK$106 billion it made in 2009, but better than the HK$75 billion loss in 2008 amid the financial crisis. The fund grew 3.6 per cent last year, below the 5.9 per cent in 2009 and below the 5.9 per cent average from 1994 to 2010. In comparison, the Hang Seng Index advanced 5.3 per cent last year.

Chan said he was satisfied with the Exchange Fund's performance, which he said was better than expected in view of the European debt crisis. The fund made HK$42.1 billion from bonds, HK11.6 billion from Hong Kong equities and HK$27 billion from other equities but lost HK$3.1 billion in foreign exchange.

But he admitted the need to seek better investment opportunities. HKMA has started to diversify its investments by way of overseas properties and private equities to improve returns, Chan said. We will also start to invest in mainland stock and bond markets soon.

The HKMA has got the nod from the mainland regulators to become a qualified foreign institutional investor (QFII) and is working with the State Administration of Foreign Exchange on how much it will be allowed to invest in mainland stocks and bonds. Since the mainland is yet to open its capital markets to overseas investors, overseas central banks and investment companies need to obtain QFII certification before they can invest on the mainland.

Chan said the HKMA has also got the green light to invest up to 15 billion yuan (HK$17.7 billion) in the mainland's interbank bond market.

The value of the Exchange Fund grew to HK$2.35 trillion as of the end of last year from HK$2.15 trillion a year earlier.

The fund's performance affects the government's income. Despite the fund's poor performance last year, the government will still receive HK$33.8 billion in fees from the fund - more than the HK$33.5 billion in 2009. The fee is based on the fund's six-year average return up to the year in question.

Looking ahead, Chan said: The markets will continue to be uncertain and volatile. While the high unemployment rate and municipal debt would continue to trouble the US, the emerging markets that were facing mounting inflation would adopt tightening policies, Chan said.

All these will bring significant instability and uncertainty to the macro financial environment and investment markets this year. Against this backdrop, I will take a cautious stance on the outlook of the financial markets this year, he said.

Copyright (c) 2011. South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.

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 3. Will someone please explain what this HK$1.3 trillion is for?
南华早报 2011-01-27 BIZ, BIZ12

Yesterday, Hong Kong Monetary Authority boss, Norman Chan Tak-lam, announced plans to diversify the Exchange Fund's portfolio of investments by buying into emerging market securities, including mainland stocks and bonds. This is worrying on two levels.

On the surface, Chan's diversification plan is troubling because sovereign investment vehicles such as the Exchange Fund are to the financial world what the cover of Time magazine is to trend-spotters. You know the idea: by the time a trend is mainstream enough to make the cover of Time, it is already going out of style.

Sovereign funds are the same. By the time staid and stuffy old sovereign managers finally decide to buy into a new asset class, it is highly likely that the market is reaching a peak and that other more nimble investors are already getting out.

The classic example is the China Investment Corp. In June 2007, the mainland's sovereign fund invested US$3 billion in the initial public offering of United States private equity company Blackstone. Yesterday, the shares were trading at just half their issue price.

Undeterred, in December 2007, CIC pumped a further US$5 billion into Morgan Stanley shares. Just over three years later, the stock is still down 46 per cent.

To be fair, CIC was not alone in buying US financial shares near the top of the market.

Also in December 2007, Temasek Holdings, Singapore's sovereign wealth fund, bought a US$5 billion stake in Merrill Lynch. Over the next year, its investment lost 80 per cent of its value before the brokerage company was rescued by Bank of America.

As you can see, sovereign funds do not exactly have an encouraging record when it comes to diversifying their investments. Now Chan wants to take the Exchange Fund into new territory, by buying into emerging markets.

This isn't the first time the fund has considered branching out. In April last year, the international press reported that the fund's managers were planning to allocate some of their assets to high octane alternative investments such as hedge funds. It probably seemed like a good idea at the time.

Over 2009, the hedge fund sector had yielded investors a respectable 13.4 per cent return, according to Chicago-based Hedge Fund Research. But if the Exchange Fund did go ahead, it would have found the returns less impressive. Last year, hedge funds managed a performance of just 4.7 per cent, less even than Hong Kong's lacklustre Hang Seng Index.

Now Chan wants the Exchange Fund to diversify into emerging-market equities. Traditionally, the fund has taken a cautious investment approach, holding about 75 per cent of its assets in high-grade liquid bonds and keeping almost 90 per cent of its portfolio in US dollar and US dollar-linked currencies. It is a strategy that has served the fund reasonably well over the past 10 years, earning it an average annual return of 5.9 per cent, considerably better than Mandatory Provident Fund investments have managed.

So, given the past track record of sovereign funds, perhaps we ought to take Chan's intention to diversify into emerging markets as a signal that they are likely to underperform in the near future.

That's not as unlikely as it might seem, given the inflation headwinds facing much of the developing world, and the attractive valuations on offer in rich country markets. So far this year, European blue chips are up 9 per cent in Hong Kong dollar terms, while mainland stocks are down 5 per cent and Southeast Asian emerging markets have lost about 7 per cent.

But there is another reason to worry about the Exchange Fund's diversification plan beyond the suspicion that it may be making a poor investment call: no one seems quite sure what the fund is actually for.

Yes, we know that the fund is there to support the Hong Kong dollar peg. But to do that, it only needs a little over HK$1 trillion in assets. At the end of last year, the fund was sitting on HK$1.3 trillion over and above what it needs fully to back the peg, including HK$592 billion in government fiscal reserves and HK$591 billion in the fund's own surplus investment profits.

No one seems able to explain what all this money is for. Perhaps we really ought to work out why we are sitting on it in the first place and what we are going to do with it in the long term before letting Chan decide how he wants to invest it - especially considering the woeful track record of Asia's other sovereign wealth funds.

tom.holland@scmp.com Copyright (c) 2011. South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.

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 4. LK Technology sells stake to FountainVest
南华早报 2011-01-27 BIZ, BIZ3

LK Technology Holdings, a die casting machine supplier to mainland manufacturers, has sold a HK$400 million stake to FountainVest, a China-focused buyout house backed by Singapore's Temasek Holdings.

As the machines make everything from cars to mobile phones, the investment in LK Technology was a bet on the Beijing government's efforts to boost domestic consumption, said Frank Tang, a FountainVest partner.

Valuations of Chinese machinery companies were also expected to rise, Tang said, as the government wanted mainland factories to stop importing technology from the West and buy locally.

Explicit emphasis on upgrading the machinery sector in Beijing's 12th five-year plan to 2015 would benefit LK Technology, he said.

A lot of high-end machinery is imported, but the domestic industry is growing up, he said.

Growth in mainland car sales was another reason FountainVest had put money into LK Technology, as a supplier to BYD, he said.

Other businesses FountainVest has backed since it raised US$1 billion in 2008 were Henan property developer Central China and mainland internet portal Sina.com.

LK Technology relies mainly on exporters for business. The firm posted HK$3.2 million profit last year, against HK$115 million in 2008, as customers cut orders.

Optimism about China's domestic potential has lifted the company's share price, with the stock rising 55 per cent in the past 12 months, closing at HK$2.95 yesterday.

The nation's ageing population means it has a looming labour shortage, making consumer-oriented firms the best investments for mainland-focused funds, Tang said.

Economists questioned that view because one-child families may continue saving as much as possible to support ageing parents. Copyright (c) 2011. South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.

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 5. How the saga unfolded
南华早报 2011-01-27 EDT, EDT3

July 2009 Stanley Ho suffers a fall at home, leading to surgery to remove a blood clot from his brain and a long spell in hospital. Over the next 18 months, family members repeatedly say Ho is recovering, but he makes just two public appearances.

November 9, 2009 Lanceford, the company that represents the bulk of Ho's personal wealth, adds Ho's daughters, Pansy and Daisy, to the board, joining their mother, Ho's second wife, Lucina Laam King-ying, Ho himself and his long-time lieutenant, banker Patrick Huen Wing-ming. The document adding the daughters is signed by Laam.

December 20, 2009 Ho makes his first appearance since his illness, at a ceremony for the 10th anniversary of Macau's handover, where he meets President Hu Jintao .

December 15 Regulatory filings reveal Ho has transferred his entire direct 7 per cent stake in SJM Holdings, worth around HK$4.8 billion, to his fourth wife, Angela Leong On-kei.

December 23 Lanceford changes its corporate secretary and the location of its registered filings - including minutes of board meetings - to the offices of law firm King & Wood.

Late December Ho steps down from SJM Holdings' licensed Macau gaming subsidiary SJM. Angela Leong is appointed managing director.

January 5, 2011 Ho writes to Daisy, saying the allotment of Lanceford shares was done "without my consent or knowledge" and that the move went against his wishes. Ho demands a meeting with Daisy and transfer of the share certificates to be divided equally between his wives' families.

January 7 Daisy replies, stating that the Lanceford share allocation "was done in accordance with your instructions". Ho's signature appears at the bottom of this letter, reaffirming instructions to give the shares to Ho's second and third wives.

January 7 Lawyer Gordon Oldham offers an interview with Ho to the South China Morning Post, but the interview falls through.

January 8 Another interview is scheduled, over dinner at Robuchon in Central, but falls through.

January 21 Ho instructs Oldham, to "vigorously pursue and protect" Ho's interests.

January 24 SJM is suspended from trading pending a "price-sensitive" announcement. The Post reveals the dispute over Lanceford.

Irene Jay Liu

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 6. Arts
南华早报 2011-01-27 Going Out, G10

Exhibition

China Climate Traditional-style Chinese paintings blended with propagandistic images by Hong Kong-born, New Zealand-based artist Josephine Do. Today, 11.30am-7.30pm, Art Beatus Gallery, 50 Peel St, SoHo. Inquiries: 2522 1138. Ends today

Ink Colour Bop

Experimental works integrating traditional ink brushwork with printed materials and contemporary techniques such as rubbing, collage and sculpture by the Ink Notes group (Choi Hoi-ying and his students, including Tse Yuet-na and Lee Kwok-leung). Today, noon-8pm, Artist Commune, Cattle Depot Artist Village, 63 Ma Tau Kok Rd, To Kwa Wan. Inquiries: 2104 3322. Ends Today

The Diary of a Colourful Journey Watercolour paintings by artist Yuzuru Okumura of scenes, people and things he came across on his European travels. Today, 10am-7pm, Wan Fung Art Gallery, G/F, Cityplaza III, Taikoo Shing. Inquiries: 2736 9623. Ends today

Zest to Dunhuang

Sculpture, Wall Object and Painting

Mixed-media works by sculptor-painter Willi Siber that straddle and challenge the conventional lines between sculpture and painting. Mon-Sat, 11am-7pm, Sun, 2pm-6pm, Karin Weber Gallery, G/F, 20 Aberdeen St, Central. Inquiries: 2544 5004. Ends Feb 12

Foreign Exchange: Hong Kong

American composer-artist Betsey Biggs' audio-visual installation interpretation of Hong Kong (that is part of a collaborative project with Samson Young that has the Hongkonger working on a parallel audio-visual installion about Providence, Rhode Island). Opening reception today, 7pm. Tomorrow-Feb 1, Feb 7-16, noon-7pm, Videotage, Unit 13, Cattle Depot Artist Village, 63 Ma Tau Kok Rd, To Kwa Wan. Inquiries: 2573 1869

Quen He

More than 90 works by artists from the mainland, Hong Kong and South Korea. Mon-Sat, 11am-7pm, New Gallery on Old Bailey, 17 Old Bailey St, SoHo. Inquiries: 2234 9889. Ends Feb 19

Playing in Heaven

Sculptures by Qu Guangci lay bare emotions and narratives human beings strive desperately to avoid, such as the loneliness brought on by our longing to live collectively and betrayals made unforgivable after being intimate. Grand opening today, 6pm-9pm. Daily, 10am-7pm, Aura Gallery, Shop MW3, M/F Peninsula Hotel, Salisbury Rd, TST. Inquiries: 2368 1068. Ends Feb 27

Modern Mongolia: From Steppes to Urban Dynamics

Paintings, photographs and installation works by 22 Mongolian artists such as Tsultemin Enkhjin and Shagdarjavin Chimeddorj. Mon-Fri, 10am-6.30pm, Sat, 10am-6pm, Hanart TZ Gallery, 202 Henley Building, 5 Queen's Rd Central; and Mon-Fri, 10am-6.30pm, Sat, 10am-6pm, Hanart Square, 2/F Mai On Industrial Building, 17-21 Kung Yip St, Kwai Chung. Inquiries: 2526 9019. Ends Feb 28

Reincarnation of Matter

Photographer So Hing-keung's series of works exploring the transformation and reincarnation of matter. Tue-Sat, noon-2pm, 3pm-7pm, The Upper Station, 22 Upper Station St, Sheung Wan. Inquiries: 3486 2474. Ends Mar 27

Highlights from Yu Kai's Donation

Costumes, stage props, librettos, photos and other memorabilia donated by Cantonese opera man mou sang (principal male role) performer Yu Kai. Mon, Wed-Sat, 10am-6pm, Sun, 10am-7pm, closed Tue, HK Heritage Museum, 1 Man Lam Rd, Sha Tin, HK$10, free on Wed. Inquiries: 2180 8188. Ends Apr 18 Performing Arts

Lung Tang Yan Opera Troupe

The Cantonese opera troupe performs The Villain, The General and the Heroic Beauty. Jan 27, 7.30pm, Yuen Long Theatre, 9 Yuen Long Tai Yuk Rd, Yuen Long, HK$100-HK$300 Urbtix. Inquiries: 2268 7325

The Empress of China Joanna Chan directs the HK Repertory Theatre's production of her period drama about the encounter of peoples from different backgrounds after the first trading ship to sail from the US to China arrives in 1784. In Cantonese and English with Chinese and English surtitles. Until Jan 29, 7.45pm, also Jan 29-30, 2.45pm, City Hall, 5 Edinburgh Place, Central, HK$130-HK$230 Urbtix. Inquiries: 3103 5900

Age of Aquarius

Perry Chiu Experimental Theatre's musical exploring the dreams and struggles of the post-80s generation using Eason Chan Yik-shun's pop songs. In Cantonese. Jan 27, 8.15pm, Jan 28, 7.30pm, 9.45pm, Sheung Wan Civic Centre, 345 Queen's Rd Central, Sheung Wan, HK$120-HK$195 Urbtix. Inquiries: 6377 7240

China Dance Forward

City Contemporary Dance Company artistic director Willy Tsao curates a modern dance showcase featuring the works of ethnic Chinese dancers and choreographers from the mainland, Taiwan and Hong Kong. Jan 28-29, 8pm, also Jan 29-30, 3pm, Ngau Chi Wan Civic Centre, 3/F Ngau Chi Wan Municipal Services Building, 11 Clear Water Bay Rd, HK$120, HK$180 Urbtix. Inquiries: 2268 7323

Firecracker

The HK Ballet's production transforms The Nutcracker fable into a dance work set in 1960s Hong Kong in which an elderly film studio prop man's faded recollections are brought to life to form a ballet mosaic. Yuri Ng Yue-lit and Yuh Egami choreograph. Jan 28-29, 8pm, also Jan 29-30, 3pm, Cultural Centre, 10 Salisbury Rd, TST, HK$180-HK$500 Urbtix. Inquiries: 2105 9724

The Story of Autistic Genius

Dance Theatre's multimedia production featuring street-dance performances by 10 choreographer-dancers (including Rex Chiu, Ada Ho, Vicky Man and Wilkie Chiu), and video and installation works. Jan 28-29, 8pm, also Jan 29-30, 3pm, Black Box Theatre, Jockey Club Creative Arts Centre, 30 Pak Tin St, Shek Kip Mei, HK$160 Urbtix. Inquiries: 9080 9389

The Drama Queen's Summer Nights

Carlo Rizzi conducts Italian soprano Anna Caterina Antonacci and the HK Philharmonic Orchestra performing Ravel's Alborada del Gracioso, Berlioz's Les Nuits d'尒? and Debussy's Images. Jan 28-29, 8pm, Cultural Centre, 10 Salisbury Rd, TST, HK$120-HK$320 Urbtix. Inquiries: 2721 2030

With Love, William ShakespeareWilliam Yip and Fong Chun-kit direct Theatre Noir's production of Fong Chun-kit's comic musical revealing timeless parallels between Shakespeare's romantic world and modern trials of love. In English with Chinese surtitles. Jan 29-30, 3pm, also Jan 29, 8pm, HKRep Black Box, 8/F Sheung Wan Civic Centre, 345 Queen's Rd Central, Sheung Wan, HK$150 Urbtix. Inquiries: 2904 7818

Alive in the Mortuary

We Draman's drama about two Medecins Sans Frontieres volunteers who come to understand the true meaning of life after they get stuck in a mortuary in war-torn Angola. In Cantonese. Jan 29, 8pm, Jan 30, 3pm, Tsuen Wan Town Hall, 72 Tai Ho Rd, Tsuen Wan, HK$160 Urbtix. Inquiries: 9448 3574

Ars Nova Annual Concert 2011 - Chamber Music Night

Soprano Yuki Ip Po-ching, clarinet player Sunny Tang Wing-chi, pianist Norman Lee and other musicians perform works by Schubert and Mozart. Jan 29, 8pm, City Hall, 5 Edinburgh Place, Central, HK$80, HK$120 Urbtix. Inquiries: 6732 2389

Asia Pacific Harmonica Festival 2010 Celebration Concert

The HK Harmonica Association presents a harmonica concert featuring Chan Chi-kwong performing Gershwin's 3 Preludes, Ho Cheuk-yin performing Gershwin's Rhapsody in Blue and the HKHA Harmonic Orchestra performing works by Paul Chan and Bizet.

Jan 30, 3pm, City Hall, 5 Edinburgh Place, Central, HK$80-HK$120 Urbtix. Inquiries:

8102 6258

An Evening with HKCO Huqin Prinicipals

Gaohu player Hsin Hsiao-ling, erhu player Hsin Hsiao-hung, zhonghu player Liu Yang and gehu player Tung Hiu-lo perform works including Robert Zollitsch's Ran Shao Xi Wang and Chew Hee Chiat's No Rules. Jan 31, 8pm, Cultural Centre, 10 Salisbury Rd, TST, HK$180, HK$250 Urbtix. Inquiries: 3185 1600

Piano Prodigy Shen Wenyu's Music World

Yip Wa-hong, Ho Chi-chung and Gabriel M. Leung conduct pianist Shen and the HK Children's Symphony Orchestra performing works by: Beethoven and Brahms, Jan 31, 3pm; and Mozart and Tchaikovsky, Jan 31, 8pm, Cultural Centre, 10 Salisbury Rd,

TST, HK$160-HK$280 Urbtix. Inquiries:

2317 0681

Mozart+: Clarinet Quintet

John Harding conducts basset clarinet player Andrew Simon, violinist Anders Hui, viola player Andrew Ling, cellist Richard Bamping and other members of the HK Philharmonic Orchestra performing Mozart's Divertimento in F and Clarinet Quintet, and Paert's Symphony No 4, Los Angeles. Feb 1, 8pm, City Hall, 5 Edinburgh Place, Central, HK$100-HK$280 Urbtix. Inquiries: 2721 2030

HK Chamber Wind Philharmonia Annual Concert 2011

Victor Tam conducts trumpet player Lertkiat Chongjirajitra and the ensemble performing works including David Jones' Driven and Ralph Hultren's Masada. Feb 5, 3pm, City Hall, 5 Edinburgh Place, Central, HK$100-HK$160 Urbtix. Inquiries: 2468 4597

The Magic Horn with Jeff Nelsen

Choi Ho-man conducts the Canadian French horn player and the Pro Arte Orchestra of HK performing works by composers including Mendelssohn, Weber and Rimsky-Korsakov. Feb 6, 8pm, City Hall, 5 Edinburgh Place, Central, HK$100-HK$250 Urbtix. Inquiries: 2143 3671

Doctor Brown: Because

HK Microfest presents visual and surreal comedy absurdist Doctor Brown's comic mime show. With some English dialogue. Feb 9-12, 8pm, Fringe Club, 2 Lower Albert Rd, Central, HK$180 (HK$160 for members) HK Ticketing. Inquiries: 2521 7251

Table for Two

Trinity Theatre and Kearen Pang present a drama that charts a romantic relationship over a five-course meal. In Cantonese. Feb 10-14, 17-20, 8pm, also Feb 13, 20, 3pm, HK Arts Centre, 2 Harbour Rd, Wan Chai, HK$180, HK$240 Urbtix. Inquiries: 2574 4968

Behind 3.0

Wayson Poon choreographs and performs in SMX Studio's dance theatre adaptation of screenwriter Mei Feng's Legend (aka Spring Fever) about heterosexual and homosexual love in the city. Shu Xie directs. Feb 11-12, 8pm, Black Box Theatre, Jockey Club Creative Arts Centre, 30 Pak Tin St, Shek Kip Mei, HK$160 Urbtix. Inquiries: 2268 7323

Fortepiano Dedication Concert

Johnny M. Poon conducts Dutch fortepianist Bart van Oort and Collegium Musicum HK performing works by Haydn and Mozart. Feb 11, 8pm, City Hall, 5 Edinburgh Place, Central, HK$100 Urbtix. Inquiries: 3411 7866

I Love Steam Dumplings

Raymond To Kwok-wai directs Spring-Time Chinese Opera and Hon Fung Creative Chinese Opera's musical comedy about a maid who becomes famous for her delicious steamed dumplings. In Cantonese. Feb 11-12, 8pm, Tuen Mun Town Hall, 3 Tuen Hi Rd, Tuen Mun, HK$100-HK$190 Urbtix. Inquiries: 2793 1123

It's Oh So Queer

Green Splash Productions' drama about the obstacles homosexuals face in their daily lives and pursuit of love. In Cantonese. Feb 11-13, 8pm, also Feb 12-13, 3pm, Multimedia Theatre, HKICC Lee Shau Kee School of Creativity, 135 Junction Rd, Kowloon, HK$150, HK$190 Urbtix. Inquiries: 9832 6816

Johnny Fong Clarinet Recital

The clarinetist, pianist Jacqueline Li and mezzo-soprano Melody Sze Siu-wan perform works by composers including Brahms, Kupferman and Bassi. Feb 11, 8pm, City Hall, 5 Edinburgh Place, Central, HK$180 Urbtix. Inquiries: 9137 2214

Trpceski plays Rach 2

Edo de Waart conducts pianist Simon Trpeeski and the HK Philharmonic Orchestra performing Rachmaninov's Scherzo in D Minor, Piano Concerto No 2, Vocalise and Symphonic Dances. Feb 11-12, 8pm, Cultural Centre, 10 Salisbury Rd, TST, HK$120-HK$380 Urbtix. Inquiries: 2721 2030

Piano Trio Concert

Pianist Mary Wu Mei-loc, violinist Hong Ying-ho and cellist Wolfgang Nuesslein play works by Beethoven, Piazzolla and Villa-Lobos. Feb 12, 6pm, Li Hall, St. John's Cathedral, 4-8 Garden Rd, Central, HK$150. Inquiries: mhwtrioconcert.squarespace.com

Gig Me 5 Percussion Concert

The Gig percussion Ensemble and guest Yeung Kwan-ching perform works including J.S. Bach's Toccata and Fugue in D Minor, Chris Corcockarell's Smash Getaway and Jared Spears' Blues and Chaser. Feb 12, 8pm, Sha Tin Town Hall, 1 Yuen Wo Rd, Sha Tin, HK$80 Urbtix. Inquiries: 9335 4235

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 7. Event
南华早报 2011-01-27 BIZ, BIZ2

Today: British Chamber of Commerce breakfast: "Latest trends in the China property market - Implications for Hong Kong". Hong Kong Club.

American Chamber of Commerce lunch: "Air pollution of buses and road transport: Potential solutions". Bank of America Tower.

French Chamber of Commerce event: "The China luxury forecast". On Hing Building, Central.

Friday, January 28: American Chamber of Commerce breakfast: "Managing risks within the supply chain: It's all about transparency". American Club.

American Chamber of Commerce: "Successful strategies for world of mouth marketing online". Bank of America Tower.

Tuesday, February 8: British Chamber of Commerce lunch: "Communicating across barriers". British Consulate-General.

British Chamber of Commerce event: "Electric vehicles - Driving too fast? Long-term strategy and short-term actions". British Consulate-General.

Wednesday, February 9: British Chamber of Commerce breakfast: "Hong Kong office market". Hong Kong Club.

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 8. TV appearance adds to Ho mystery
南华早报 2011-01-27 EDT, EDT1,EDT2

Everything is back in order, I won't be suing, casino king tells viewersShaw sells TVB stake in estimated HK$5.2b deal

Making his first public appearance in the back-and-forth saga of his contested gambling empire, Stanley Ho Hung-sun said in a television interview yesterday that everything was back in order and that he would not sue his family members after all. Appearing on TVB (SEHK: 0511) at noon, the magnate appeared to be reading from a script on a large white board held up in front of him.

"I thank [lawyer] Gordon [Oldham] for intervening. Now I do not need Gordon any more," Ho read from the board, breathing laboriously.

But a few hours later, Oldham appeared in the High Court and contradicted what had been shown at noon. He said he had arrived directly from a meeting with Ho, who he was still representing. Oldham hinted that a big move was coming. "I think you will be surprised," he said.

The saga unfolded after it was revealed this week that the tycoon's control of his sprawling empire was diluted almost to nothing.

Last night, there was yet another twist when Angela Ho Chiu-yin, daughter of Ho's deceased first wife Clementina De Mello Leitao, issued a statement.

She said in it she could not believe her father would leave nothing to her mother's family, as he had "always prided himself on being a fair, just and honest person".

"Her [her mother's ]connections in Portugal and standing in Macau society was a big factor for my father winning the gambling monopoly in 1961. Daddy never forgot her importance in the creation of the empire he presides [over] today. My father speaks to me often and has stated publicly about how he intends to divide his estate evenly amongst his children and I therefore find statements and actions made and taken by his mistresses and their children, which do not conform to this wish, highly disconcerting and hurtful."

She also said she had tried to contact Ina Chan Un Chan (Ho's third wife) Pansy and Daisy (daughters of his second wife) many times about these issues but they had ignored her.

Oldham, senior partner at Oldham, Li and Nie, said in the afternoon that he had recorded video of Ho's Tuesday morning affirmation saying he was fighting to regain control of Lanceford, the key holding company in his corporate empire.

An announcement by listed holding company SJM on Tuesday afternoon appeared to support this, saying the casino company's board of directors "has also been informed that the Lanceford [transfer of control] is disputed by Dr Ho and that Dr Ho is seeking a means by which such matters can be resolved."

Shares of SJM immediately plunged 9 per cent when they resumed trading yesterday morning after a suspension on Tuesday to respond to a story in this newspaper. The shares later climbed back and closed down 4.93 per cent at HK$13.12.

During the noon TV appearance, Ho was flanked by third wife Chan, on his left, and their daughter, Florinda Ho Chiu-wan, holding a microphone. On his right, daughters of his second wife, Lucina Laam King-ying - Pansy, Daisy and Maisy - stood about three metres away. It is unclear who wrote the words on the board he read from.

The wheelchair-bound Ho left the living room immediately after delivering the statement. He did not take any questions.

The tycoon made the statement in Chan's house at 5 Black's Link, which saw people coming in and out throughout the day, creating a frenzy for the throng of reporters waiting outside the gate.

The family apparently had a meeting at about 3pm, when children of the four wives were seen entering the house.

Ho left the house at 3.35pm in the company of his fourth wife, Angela Leong On-kei, and their daughter Sabrina. They went back to his home at 1 Repulse Bay Road.

Oldham was seen entering the house at 4.30pm, and came out 15 minutes later with a cheque in his hand. He went to the High Court afterwards.

Privately-held Lanceford, the holding company for the bulk of the billionaire's wealth, owns Ho's controlling 31.655 per cent stake in 50-year-old conglomerate Sociedade de Turismo e Diversoes de Macau (STDM). STDM in turn owns 55.7 per cent of SJM, which indirectly operates 20 of Macau's 33 casinos.

The issue of new shares in Lanceford that shifted ultimate control of STDM took place on December 27. The issue reduced Stanley Ho's stake in Lanceford from 100 per cent to 0.02 per cent, and boosted the combined interest of Laam's five children and Chan to 99.98 per cent from zero.

This was done "without Ho's consent and knowledge", according to a letter from Ho to Daisy dated January 5. In that letter, the tycoon said he had intended for his main assets to be distributed equally among each of his four families.

That was contradicted by a subsequent reply from Daisy to her father on January 7.

Moreover, another statement that was signed by Ho and was read out by Chan on Tuesday night said the whole matter was a misunderstanding that involved no cheating among family members, and that the matter did not require lawyers or the courts to settle.

This prompted the following response from lawyer Oldham yesterday morning: "We don't pay too much attention to a press release issued at midnight by a third mistress who has a billion-dollar interest in the outcome of this."

"It is business as usual. We have our instructions from Stanley Ho and are carrying on," he said.

Leong, who is also director of SJM and managing director of its Macau operating unit, said yesterday after leaving Chan's house she would not comment on "gossip".

Asked to comment on Chan's emergence as one of the biggest indirect shareholders of SJM, Leong said: "We have many shareholders. No matter big or small, they are all concerned with the development of the company. We will be accountable to them." She did not comment on whether Ho was conscious of his actions.

Contacted yesterday, none of STDM's other major shareholders would comment on recent developments within the Ho family empire. The family of Cheng Yu-tung, the Henry Fok Ying Tung Foundation and Ho's estranged sister, Winnie Ho Yuen-ki, all declined to comment.

Additional reporting by Neil Gough

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 9. Advertising
南华早报 2011-01-27 BIZ, BIZ2

Ad campaigns grow 19pc to HK$31b

Total advertising spending in Hong Kong last year reached HK$30.98 billion, boosted by a much-improved economy, according to media-monitoring firm admanGo. That was a 19 per cent rise from HK$26.11 billion in 2009 as all media categories saw advertising campaigns grow, led by television channels and newspapers. HSBC became the city's top advertiser last year with campaigns totalling HK$280.28 million. The banking and investment services group led all sectors, with advertising spending of HK$3.2 billion. Bien Perez

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10. How the elderly tycoon found out he was poor, and what he did about it
南华早报 2011-01-27 EDT, EDT1,EDT3

What Ho did when he found out he was poor

When the phone rang in the South China Morning Post's Causeway Bay newsroom on the morning of January 7, the caller made an offer that no journalist could refuse: would you like an exclusive interview with Stanley Ho Hung-sun?

That morning, the 89-year-old billionaire had opened this newspaper to read an article titled, "The rich just got richer," which listed Ho as Hong Kong's 13th wealthiest man as ranked by Forbes and estimated his fortune at US$3.1 billion. "When he saw that he went ballistic," said Gordon Oldham, a lawyer whom Ho would later instruct to defend his interests. "That was the last straw."

In fact, Ho had discovered only days earlier that he had effectively lost the bulk of his fortune.

The irony was inescapable.

"He was mad because he sees in the paper he's worth billions, and somebody tells him that actually, now, he is worth about six hundred dollars," Oldham said.

As a result of the December 27 share issuance, Ho's third wife, Ina Chan Un Chan, became Lanceford's single largest shareholder with 50.5 per cent. The remaining 49.5 per cent went to Ranillo Investments, which is owned 20 per cent each by the five children of second wife Lucina Laam King-ying: Pansy, Daisy, Maisy, Lawrence and Josie.

Privately held and locally incorporated, Lanceford noted the change in a filing to Hong Kong's Companies Registry dated December 30.

On January 5, Ho wrote to Daisy saying the deal had been done "without my consent and knowledge".

Ho's letter included a "command" to Daisy to report to his house with all of his STDM share certificates: "In order to transfer all my shares of STDM to equal amounts divided amongst: Clementina Ho's descendents, represented by my daughter Angela Ho; Lucina Laam; Ina Chan; Angela Leung [On-kei]. This has always been my intention and wish," the letter said.

By the morning of January 7, Ho was apparently motivated to talk to the press - thus the phone call to the Post, which came from Oldham.

It was early afternoon by the time the metal gate in the driveway of Ho's hilltop mansion at No1 Repulse Bay Road rolled open to admit a car full of journalists from this newspaper.

The reporters were stopped by security and were informed by a family member that Ho was enjoying a post-lunch nap. More problematically, members of second wife Laam's family, the new owners of Lanceford, were on the way to pick up Ho for their allotted visit with him.

The reporters left without their interview. But a tentative meeting was set for January 8 over dinner at the Michelin-starred Robuchon in Central's Landmark building.

Meanwhile, on January 7, Daisy wrote a response to her father's letter. The circumstances it outlined were in sharp contrast to those described in Ho's initial correspondence. Daisy's letter recounted how she, sister Pansy and Ho's third wife, Chan, met Stanley Ho on the evening of January 5 and as a result "any misunderstanding there might have been has been cleared up".

At the bottom of Daisy's letter was an endorsement signed by Stanley Ho which said: "This is to acknowledge that I re-affirm my instructions in relation to my gift of the STDM shares to Lucina and Ina."

Ho's acknowledgement and endorsement of Daisy's letter appears to be dated January 8 - the proposed date of Ho's dinner with the Post reporters. But that meeting, too, was called off, no explanation given.

Last Friday, in a videotaped meeting at his residence on Repulse Bay Road, Ho instructed Oldham to act on his behalf and "take vigorous action" against the family members involved in the change in control of Lanceford, according to Oldham.

Ho described the loss of control of the corporate empire he built over the previous five decades as "robbery", according to Oldham, who cited the video taken on Friday.

At 9.41am on Monday, shares in SJM Holdings were suspended from trading pending an announcement of "price sensitive information".

One hour later, a reporter from this newspaper received a call from Oldham. A noon meeting was arranged at the offices of his firm, Oldham, Li and Nie, where he laid out the details of Ho's allegations. Later that day SJM announced Stanley Ho "no longer has an attributable interest".

On Tuesday, the Post quoted Oldham as saying: "Stanley Ho is of the opinion that this was fraudulently misappropriated by members of his family and we have been instructed to vigorously pursue and protect his interests."

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11. Gigs
南华早报 2011-01-27 Going Out, G11

Highlights

Cabaret 2011

Whole Theatre's cabaret show featuring a range of music, including pop and electro. In Cantonese. Jan 27-30, 8pm, Jan 29-30, 3.30pm, Ngau Chi Wan Civic Centre, 11 Clear Water Bay Rd, Kowloon, HK$200, includes drinks and snacks. Inquiries: 8201 2989

Once Upon A Time in QueensSinger Heidi Mak's cabaret show about a woman dealing with love, life and the challenges of being an outsider. A City Festival programme. In English. Jan 27-29, 8pm, Fringe Club, 2 Lower Albert Rd, Central, HK$200 (HK$160 for members). Inquiries: 2521 7251

Tenggeer and his Blue Wolf in Concert

The Inner Mongolian singer-songwriter and his band serve up a mix of rock 'n' roll and Mongolian folk songs. Jan 27, 8pm, Kwai Tsing Theatre, 12 Hing Ning Rd, Kwai Chung, HK$120-HK$300 Urbtix. Inquiries: 2268 7321

Justin 'Around The World' Tour 2011

Canto-pop singer-songwriter Justin Lo Ting-wai in concert. Jan 27-28, 8.15pm, HK Coliseum, 9 Cheong Wan Rd, Hung Hom, HK$180-HK$480 Urbtix. Inquiries: 2996 3988

Halo 4th Anniversary

DJ Gie, singer Jeza and trumpet player Michael Garcia perform. Jan 27, 10pm, Halo, 10-12 Stanley St, Central, free (but RSVP required). Inquiries: 2810 1460

Marsha N da Boyz

Vocalist Marsha Yuan, pianist Ted Lo, guitarist Eugene Pao, bassist Peter Scherr and drummer Jack Greminger serve up jazz. A City Festival programme. Jan 27-28, 10pm, Fringe Club, 2 Lower Albert Rd, Central, HK$180 (HK$150 for members). Inquiries: 2521 7251

Pre-CNY Bash 2011

DJ Yeodie spins mash up, house and electro while DJ Bravo mixes hip hop and top 40 tunes. Jan 27, 11pm, Hyde, 2-3/F Lyndhurst Tower, 1 Lyndhurst Terrace, Central, HK$100, includes one drink. Free for women. Inquiries: 2522 2608

David Rovics in Concert

The US folk singer-songwriter performs. A City Festival programme. Jan 28, 8pm, Fringe Club, 2 Lower Albert Rd, Central, HK$150 (HK$120 for members). Inquiries: 2521 7251

Newbie Agenda #1

Nu-metal band Ghost Word, post rockers More Reverb and two other bands perform. Jan 28, 8.30pm, Hidden Agenda, 6/F Ko Leung Industrial Building, 25 Tai Yip St,

Kwun Tong, HK$40. Inquiries: 6335 6366

SickIndividuals

The Dutch duo spin house music. Jan 28, 9pm, Drop, B/F On Lok Mansion, 39-43 Hollywood Rd, Central, HK$100 (before 2am), HK$200 (after 2am). Inquiries: 2543 8856

DJ Spenny

The DJ mixes hip hop and electro. Jan 28, 10pm, Beijing Club, 2/F, 3/F & 5/F, Wellington Place, 2-8 Wellington St, Central, HK$350 (men). Free for women. Inquiries: 2526 8298

Fata Friday

DJs Jeez, N1D, Enso and Redman spin dubstep and drum 'n' bass. Jan 28, 10pm, Otto Lounge, 4/F Grand Progress Building, 14-15 Lan Kwai Fong, Central, HK$50. Inquiries: 9495 5421

Sound In the Park: Concert 4 - Afternoon Tunes on the Lawn

Oldies music group Candy Darling, blues/folk/rock singer-songwriter Wong Hin-yan and indie pop-rockers Sway Dog perform. Jan 29, 2.30pm, Scented Garden, Tuen Mun Park, Tuen Mun Heung Sze Wui Rd, Tuen Mun, free. Inquiries: 6717 8723

Tomohisa Yamashita World Tour - HK

The J-pop singer-songwriter in concert. Jan 29-30, 3pm, also 8pm, Kitec, 1 Trademart Drive, Kowloon Bay, HK$580, HK$880 HK Ticketing. Inquiries: 8100 0138

Hidden Shop Opening

Extreme pop band No One Remains Virgin and electronica band Error: Wrong perform; DJs Ameet, Pandalyn, VOnE and DJ Dust spin twisted psychedelic tunes. Jan 29, 4pm, Hidden Shop, 6/F Ko Leung Industrial Building, 25 Tai Yip St, Kwun Tong, free. Inquiries: 6335 6366

Raymond Lam Come 2 Me Concert

Canto-pop singer-actor Raymond Lam Fung performs. Jan 29, 8pm, Cotai Arena, The Venetian Macao, Cotai Strip, Macau, HK$280-HK$680 HK Ticketing. Inquiries: (853) 2882 8818

SoulSinger Ama Huen-ning performs. A City Festival programme. Jan 29, 8pm, Fringe Club, 2 Lower Albert Rd, Central, HK$150 (members HK$120). Inquiries: 2521 7251

Saturday Night Jazz Orchestra

Tony Lee & Sunny Day Project

The two bands play rock and pop. Jan 29, 9.30pm, Ippei-an, 4/F Circle Plaza, 499 Hennessy Rd, Causeway Bay, free. Inquiries: 3741 1166

I Love ... House Music

DJs Asim Fiction, Paul The Scot and Faidox Project spin house tunes. Jan 29, 10pm, Bassment, 13 Lyndhurst Terrace, Central, HK$200, includes open bar. Inquiries: 2815 0868

Underground Heavy #5

Post hardcore band the Priceless Boat, aggro rockers This is Ammunition, metalcore group the InnerCore, Cantocore band Wu So Lui, nu-alternative metal band Trash21 and rap metal funkcore group Intellectual Morons perform. Jan 29, 10pm, Backstage Live, 1/F, Somptueux Central, 52-54 Wellington St, Central, HK$100, includes one drink. Inquiries: 9486 4648

Namito

The German DJ plays techno; Basil Tam and Ocean Lam support. Jan 29, 10pm, Yumla, L/B, 79 Wyndham St, Central, HK$150, includes one drink. Inquiries: 2147 2383 or contact@yumla.com

Le Palais Cannes

French DJ Sacha Muki plays house. Jan 29, 11.30pm, Dragon-i, UG/F The Centrium, 60 Wyndham St, Central, HK$300. Inquiries: 3110 1222

Kary On Live 2011

Canto-pop-rock singer Kary Ng Yu-fei performs. Jan 30, 8.15pm, HK Coliseum, 9 Cheong Wan Rd, Hung Hom, HK$180-HK$480 Urbtix. Inquiries: 2996 3988

FiVe Live in HK

The J-pop band in concert. Jan 31, 8pm, Kitec, 1 Trademart Drive, Kowloon Bay, HK$350 HK Ticketing. Inquiries: 8100 0138

Celebrate CNY Eve with DJ Outkast

The Dutch DJ spins hip hop, dancehall and more. Feb 2, 10pm, Hyde, 2/F Lyndhurst Tower, 1 Lyndhurst Terrace, Central, free. Inquiries: 2850 6283

Wynners 38 Live in HK

Barefoot Art

Indie-folk/alternative band 9 Maps, alternative folk group Sun Eskimos and freak-folk band Milkteeth perform. Feb 5, 9.30pm, Culture Club, 15 Elgin Street, SoHo, free. Inquiries: 2127 7936

Ricky Stone

The British DJ spins dance music; DJs Email, Mic, Onz and Gordon support. Feb 5, 10pm, Club Lotus Macau, Shop 3002, L5 The Grand Canal Shoppes, The Venetian Macao, Cotai Strip, Macau, 250 patacas (advance), 280 patacas (door). Inquiries: (853) 2882 8011

DJ Remus Live 2011 Birthday Party

Local DJ Remus Choy Yat-kit spins progressive music. Feb 5, 10.30pm, Club Shake Shake, 2/F On Hing building, 1 On Hing Terrace, Central, HK$320. Inquiries: 3119 3333 or info@shakeshake.hk

Regular Gigs

Blue Bar

Colombian pianist-composer Gabriel Guerrero plays jazz tunes, Jan 28-29, 8pm. Four Seasons Hotel, 8 Finance St, Central, free. Inquiries: 3196 8888

Captain's Bar

The Vanessa Falabella Trio Band perform jazz, Jan 27, Jan 31-Feb 3, 9pm-12.45am, Jan 28-29, Feb 4-5, 9pm-1.45am. Mandarin Oriental Hotel, 5 Connaught Rd, Central, free. Inquiries: 2825 4006

Fly

DJs Frankie Lam, Lukas, AKW and others spin house and techno, Jan 27, 9pm. G/F, 24-30 Ice House St, Central, free. Inquiries: 2851 9298

Hemingway's by the Bay

Joyce is Not Here

Vocalist Ginger Kwan and pianist-vocalist Jesreal Lucero serve up jazz, pop and R&B classics, Jan 28, 9.30pm. Guitarist Dan Lavelle and violinist Yanice Tsang play a mix of classical, jazz, Bossanova, and pop music, Jan 29, 9.30pm. 38-44 Peel St, SoHo, free. Inquiries: 2851 2999

Linq

Ovin plays 80s jazz, pop and beach house, Jan 27. On Jan 28, Ovin plays 80s and 90s music. On Jan 29, Ovin plays funk, electro and commercial. 10pm, G/F, 35 Pottinger St, Central, free. Inquiries: 2971 0680

Lobby Lounge

American vocalist Tess Lyons sings jazz, R&B, soul and pop, Jan 27-30, 9pm-12.45am, Intercontinental HK, 18 Salisbury Rd, TST, free. Inquiries: 2721 1211

Manchester United Restaurant Bar

Shandy Gan and the Platters serve up jazz and pop, Jan 28, 10pm. 32-34 Lock Rd, TST, free. Inquiries: 2366 4880

Peel Fresco Music Lounge

Jordie Guzman, Rafael Alcantara, Victor Geronimo, Ceito and others play Latin tunes, Jan 27, 9.30pm. The Shoichi Chinda Quartet play Bebop jazz, Jan 28, 9.30pm. On Jan 29, guitarist Eugene Pao and the Auzzie trio play jazz, 10pm. Jan 30 and Feb 6 are Chill Out jam nights, 9.30pm. Blues rockers Diving for Air perform, Jan 31, Feb 7, 9.30pm. Feb 1 and 8 are Fresco's Open Mic Nights, 9.30pm. Pianist-organist Bob Mocarsky hosts jazz breaks, Feb 2, 9, 9.30pm. Jordie Guzman, Rafael Alcantara, Ceito, Chris Polanco and others play Latin music, Feb 3, 9.30pm. On Feb 4, the Jim Schneider Assembly play jazz, 9.30pm. Hat Trick, drummer Baba Tunji Heath, guitarist-vocalist Dave Coloquhoun and musician Tony Lee serve up classic rock and pop, Feb 5, 10pm. 49 Peel St, SoHo, free. Inquiries: 2540 2046

TakeOut Comedy Club

English-language stand-up comedy with: Mahesh Mansigani, James Morley, Big Ben and others, Jan 27, 9pm, HK$120; Connor Savage, Chris Musni, Nick Milnes and others, Jan 29, 9pm, HK$150; Lisa Hanahan, Earl Young, Nadim Rai and others, Feb 3, 9pm, HK$120; The People's Liberation Improv, Feb 4, 9pm, HK$150; Jami Gong and others, Feb 8, 8pm, HK$200 (all proceeds go to Clean Air Network); and Ryan Hynek, Dennis Wronka, Mahesh Mansigani and others, Feb 5, 9pm, HK$150. Cantonese-language stand-up comedy with Christopher M, Matina Leung, Kenneth Kwan, Daniel Chong, Fab, Kevin Zou, A Kai, Kingdom Kwok, Joe Wong and Jack Si, Jan 28, 9pm, HK$100. B/F, 34 Elgin St, SoHo. Inquiries: 6220 4436

The Wanch

Dave Colquhoun plays acoustic tunes, Jan 27, 5.30pm; rockers the Vegetables follow, 8pm; then acoustic-folk band Agatha & Tjoe, freak-folk band Milkteeth and rock band the Time Traveller perform, 9.30pm. On Jan 28, Bambie Capito serves up acoustic tunes, 6pm; B-Sample serve up rock 'n' roll, 9pm; and then Motown music band Hinabeya play, 10.30pm. On Jan 29, Bambie Capito hosts a jam session, 6pm; the Culprits play rock 'n' roll, 8.30pm; the Catfish Kings play the blues, 10pm; then Sweet Revenge follow, midnight. On Jan 30, Armie and friends play folk rock, 4pm; then classic rockers Underdogs perform, 7pm. Bambie Capito hosts a jam night, Jan 31, 8.30pm. On Feb 1, Joven Goce plays acoustic tunes, 6pm; then Andrew Crawford and Evan Rhys and his band play original music, 9pm. Fast Frank plays acoustic tunes, Feb 2, 6pm. Dave Colquhoun plays acoustic tunes, Feb 3, 6pm. On Feb 4, Bambie Capito serves up acoustic tunes, 6pm, classic rockers Retrobates follow, 9pm; then Burning Wheel play hard rock, 11.30pm. On Feb 5, Dave Colquhoun hosts an acoustic jam, 6pm; Kathmandu Mayhem serve up modern rock, 9pm; then rockers Don't Panic perform, 11.30pm. On Feb 6, Armie and friends play folk rock, 4pm; then Lito and friends play top 40 rock, 7pm. Bambie Capito hosts a jam night, Feb 7, 8pm. On Feb 8, Joven Goce serves up acoustic tunes, 8pm; Andrew Crawford perform original music, 9pm; then Evan

Rhys and his band play, 10.45pm.

Fast Frank plays acoustic tunes, Feb 9, 6pm.

4 Jaffe Rd, Wan Chai, free. Inquiries:

2861 1621

Compiled by Vanessa Yung

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12. In Brief
南华早报 2011-01-27 BIZ, BIZ3

Hongkong Electric to change name to Power Asset Holdings

The minority shareholders of Li Ka-shing's power supply flagship, Hongkong Electric Holdings, yesterday approved the proposed change of name to Power Asset Holdings. Ditching the name it has used since its listing in 1976, the group said the new name would take effect in the middle of February pending official approval, and would reflect its diversification into overseas markets. Denise Tsang

Climax International boss to

face four charges of fraud

A former chief executive of Hong Kong-listed Climax International, has been charged by the Independent Commission Against Corruption for his alleged role in defrauding the company of HK$9 million and misappropriating additional funds of more than HK$3.8 million. The ICAC said Chan Hoi-lam, 48, a former shareholder of Climax, will appear at Eastern Magistracy tomorrow. Toh Han Shih

OOCL enjoys bumper year as cargo volumes rebound

Orient Overseas (International) Limited, the Tung family controlled container shipping company, reported a 42 per cent increase in sales in the fourth quarter from a year earlier as freight rates and cargo volume increased. The shipping company carried a total volume of 1.3 million 20-foot equivalent units in the fourth quarter, a rise of 19 per cent year-on-year. Revenue rose 42 per cent to US$1.5 billion and sales increased 46 per cent year-on-year to US$5.6 billion. Charlotte So

China Mobile to take on world

with homegrown 4G technology

China Mobile, the world's biggest phone carrier by market value, may buy a 4G fast-data wireless licence in Belgium, chairman Wang Jianzhou said at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, yesterday. China Mobile is developing TD-LTE, a fourth-generation wireless technology from China, and aims to expand globally in the next 10 years to compete with companies such as Deutsche Telekom and TeliaSonera. Bloomberg

Euro's survival vital for China

China has a "very strong vested interest" in ensuring the euro survives, Simon Derrick, chief currency strategist at Bank of New York Mellon Corp said yesterday. "It needs a credible alternative to the dollar" because of its huge foreign currency reserves, he said. Bloomberg

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13. Aliens on their mind Two advocates of extraterrestrial encounters tell Hong Kong audience their stories, but scientists are sceptical, writes Adrian Wan
SCMP-young post 2011-01-27 Young Post, Y6

Are we alone in the universe? Many people believe not. Jim Sparks is one of them.

The American celebrity UFO-tale spinner will tell you about the close encounters he's had with aliens - and let you pay him for the privilege.

Sparks recently filled a hall in Kowloon Bay with 700 people who spent up to HK$300 per ticket to hear about his three-decade career as an "abductee".

Sparks used to be a property developer. "I had a good business and a good life," he said. "But one night, I was pulled from my bed to a [space]craft."

Extraterrestrials had abducted him hundreds of times since then, he said. They forced him to learn their languages and occasionally asked him to do "embarrassing" things, such as give them samples of body fluids.

Some in the hall left midway through his talk, perhaps finding his claims hollow. But many more listened until the end and queued up for the 56-year-old market researcher's book and autograph.

Sparks was invited to speak in Hong Kong by Neil Gould, who says he, too, has been abducted by aliens. Gould heads the local branch of the Hawaii-based Exopolitics Institute, which studies extraterrestrial activities and has more than 70 members worldwide.

Gould, 56, is an electronics-parts trader who lives with his family on a luxurious boat moored off Aberdeen. He claims he has been in contact with aliens for 45 years.

"The first time was when I was nine," he said. "But it wasn't until a few years later that I had the courage to grab one, and accompanied them to places."

His most recent experience was eight months ago, on his boat. "A lady came into my room, looking completely human but was extraterrestrial. Blond hair, petite and her eyes were completely black. We had some dialogue. Afterwards, they gave my son electric shocks and when he got up he had a white triangle mark on his arm.

"I was very depressed after that," he said. "I like to meet them but I'd like it to be more two-way because the way I meet them is not always pleasant. Now it's all whenever they want."

He said an experience in 2000 was a turning point: "I was with 20 Chinese unloading cargo on Kowloon side, and four crafts about a kilometre wide flew over the IFC. They came over and circled the beam [from the top of the IFC tower], going round ... they literally vanished in front of our eyes after about seven seconds."

He said he has had "an incredible acceleration of mental abilities" since that time. He now understands complex physics without ever learning it. "Way, way beyond normal human. Way, way, way beyond," he said.

His family thought there was something wrong with him. Then, in 2007, while the Goulds were on a balcony in their then-Pok Fu Lam home, "a huge craft flew in front of us and they all saw it. They were saying, 'My God. This is what he's been on about.' So now they know".

Mental health professionals say people who claim to have interacted with aliens have a vivid imagination. They create false memories or experience sleep issues such as lucid dreams.

"People experience or see what they believe and what the cultures they are brought up in have them [see]," said Professor Lee Sing, a specialist in social psychiatry at Chinese University. That was why some abductees' accounts resembled science fiction stories, he said.

"To an extent, you may say aliens can be interpreted as one modern-day form of ghosts," Lee said. In both cases, people are haunted by strange life forms.

Most scientists, on the other hand, do not even give these "experiencers" the benefit of the doubt. Leo Blitz, an astronomy professor at the University of California, Berkeley, says extraterrestrial life almost certainly exists. But such alien abductions "cannot be true".

"It simply takes too much energy and too much time to get from another star to within the solar system," he said. "And after a journey of perhaps 10,000 years, why would they not go to the centre of government rather than picking some ordinary people off the earth? Why aren't there any unambiguous artefacts from an alien civilisation?"

Gould says aliens do not have to travel a long way to reach the earth because they have incredible technology. "They take shortcuts through space and time," he said. Unfortunately for those seeking evidence, "they're not going to let you take photographs". He believes crop circles are left behind by aliens.

Almost all claims of UFO sightings can be explained, said Alex Filippenko, astronomy professor at the University of California, Berkeley. The few that were not easily explained might still have a conventional explanation that we had not yet figured out, he added.

"The point is that, as [famed astronomer] Carl Sagan said, 'Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence'," he said.

All stories are edited versions of articles that appeared in the Sunday Morning Post on January 23, 2011

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14. Eviction rules are but a first step
南华早报 2011-01-27 EDT, EDT13

Finally, after four years of preparation and hearing over 100,000 public opinions, the government has set rules to put an end to the forced demolition of homes by government officials. The new regulation on the requisition of buildings on state-owned land, which took effect last Friday, brings hope to the millions of residents in mainland cities who are at the mercy of rapid urbanisation and industrialisation.

The rules signal the awakening of civil rights awareness in mainland China, and reflect progress towards a society with sound governance and rule of law. They offer an institutional solution to the seemingly intractable problem of forced demolitions. In particular, two provisions are commendable.

First, the regulation outlaws the forced demolition of homes by government, and allows people who object to the requisition to seek legal redress through the People's Court. This is an unprecedented move that puts homeowners on an equal legal footing with local governments, and gives residents the opportunity to protect their rights in a relocation.

Second, the regulation states for the first time that the compensation for a requisitioned property must not be less than the market value of similar properties. It also allows the affected homeowner to hire the valuation agency of his choice. This effectively bans the practice of sending homeowners packing with only nominal compensation.

However, the regulation's implementation will be challenging. For it to be effective, for demolitions to be carried out legally and the compensation to be fair, and for lawmakers to strike a balance between public interests and homeowners' rights, the judiciary must work independently and in compliance with the law. At this stage of China's reforms, this is its most difficult task and biggest challenge.

Under the regulation, the government may not evict a household by force, but it may apply to the court to take such action. Inevitably, questions will arise: in this scenario, can negotiations between the government and residents be truly fair, and will the judiciary be truly independent of the government? In the past, we've seen local government officials who, with court orders in hand, tried to turn people out of their home without fair compensation. When residents put up a fight, this sparked confrontations that in some cases ended in death.

In fact, there have been too many examples of government intervention in the exercise of judicial powers. We've seen cases in which local governments did not acquire a property according to law, even though they were authorised to do so; and we've seen many relocation agreements reached through negotiations that were neither rational nor just.

The worry is that, not only will the latest regulation not rein in government excess, it may provide a cover for more such behaviour. After all, government officials may now justify forced evictions by saying they were only acting on the court's order, according to regulation. If this happened, it would sorely disappoint the people, who had hoped to bring forced evictions under the purview of the law.

Therefore, even as we welcome the new rules, it is important that we also establish mechanisms to ensure the effective legal protection of civil rights, and to provide legal channels for residents to seek redress if needed.

The new regulation has another major flaw - it is silent on the requisition of housing on collective land in rural areas. The State Council's Legislative Affairs Office explained that it was because the regulation comes under the law governing urban properties, while the requisition of collective land in rural areas is covered by the law on land administration. This means that two different laws govern the two types of requisition, though they share the same principles.

This is a poor reason for the regulatory gap. The two laws are separate because, for technical purposes, rural and urban issues are administered separately, though this distinction should have been changed long ago.

Due to rapid urbanisation, demolition and relocation is a common scene in rural and urban areas. Every year, some 80 per cent of new land for development comes from the requisition of rural land, which sometimes involved the demolition of whole villages. With accelerating urbanisation, the size of the villages facing demolition and the number of people affected have far exceeded those in urban areas. Clearly, the problems associated with the requisition of rural land are more widespread and critical.

But, no laws regulate the demolition of rural housing. There aren't even standardised rules at the provincial government level. The eviction is often carried out based on county government documents and, in some cases, the meeting minutes of a county government. The fate of a village and its thousands of residents is in most cases decided by several county officials. This regulatory lapse is worrying; it is the direct cause of many violent clashes between villagers and local government officials.

These problems must no longer be ignored. Perhaps recognising the need for change, a State Council executive meeting last week urged that the land administration law be amended, to regulate the requisition of rural land and its compensation, and for a relevant bill to be presented soon to the National People's Congress Standing Committee for consideration. This is a positive development.

To fully tackle the problem of forced evictions, the government must integrate its administration of rural and urban land, refrain from interfering in the land market, and strictly carry out its plans for land use and urban planning.

As China urbanises, the forced evictions by local governments must be brought under the rule of law - this is inevitable as society develops, and it is what the people expect.

The new rules for land requisition are a milestone, but whether they are effective remains to be seen.

This article is provided by Caixin Media, and the Chinese version of it was first published in Century Weekly magazine. www.caing.com Copyright (c) 2011. South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.

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15. Lai See
南华早报 2011-01-27 BIZ, BIZ12

Why Ronnie Chan isn't

worried about succession

Ronnie Chan Chi-chung, the chairman of the Hang Lung Group, is, as we all know, a deep thinker and a mine of information and advice. Yesterday's press conference to announce his company's interim results provided a platform to further advance our knowledge. With tycoon Stanley Ho Hung-sun's plans for his estate in apparent disarray, reporters were interested to know how the wily Chan would avoid Ho's apparent pitfalls. "It's very simple," said Chan, who has two grown-up sons. "Don't leave anything to your children - this will avoid disagreements." This might be true, but it might lead to disappointment. Chan says he was never left anything by his father. His situation is somewhat simpler than Ho's in that he only has one wife to deal with, whereas Ho has had to deal with four wives and their offspring. The price of exuberance.

Lai see for Hang Lung staff

In addition to handy information on how to deal with succession problems, there was good news from Hang Lung on salaries. Employees in Hong Kong will receive a 4.5 per cent salary increase together with a one-month bonus. Employees on the mainland will get a double-digit raise in pay in view of their lower wage base and the higher inflation across the border.

Much ado over drink-driving

The police have carried out another of what they like to call "territory-wide" anti-drink-driving operation over the last five days. During the course of operation "QuickChaser", as it was known, police breathalysed 2,354 drivers. The outcome of this territory-wide crackdown is that a grand total of 11 drivers are to be charged with drink-driving, a hit rate of 0.47 per cent.

The police further say that since random breathalysing was introduced at the beginning of 2009 they have breath-tested 156,397 drivers and charged 698 or 0.45 per cent. No doubt the police will say it is their vigilance which is keeping the number of drink-drivers down. But there is another possibility and that is it was never a serious problem in Hong Kong and a sledgehammer is being used to crack a very small nut.

Eager beginners

With Hong Kong becoming the wine auction capital of the world in 2010 ahead of New York and London, it has already set a blistering pace in January, and industry experts expect it to maintain this position. During the past week a total of 2,611 lots were sold by Sotheby's and Acker Merrall & Condit, bringing in US$25.5 million. Another 1,007 lots totalling US$9.2 million were sold by Zachys in Hong Kong in early January, making a total of US$34.7 million. In contrast, in January last year a total of 1,800 lots achieved US$14.4 million in Hong Kong. Last year, according to the Wine Spectator, Hong Kong's sales reached US$165 million, an increase of 157 per cent over the previous year. It notes that while more wine is sold in the United States, Hong Kong brings in more per lot. The magazine believes the fundamental difference between the two markets is that Hong Kong buyers are not particularly price sensitive, so auction directors funnel high-profile lots here. "Many Asian buyers are in the initial stages of collecting and when they start out, they buy practically everything for whatever it takes because their cellars are basically empty," said Charles Curtis, head of wine for Christie's Asia.

When genius stumbles

The thing about hedge fund managers is that when they are winning they are geniuses but when they lose it's presented as somehow being unavoidable like an act of god. Take Atradis Fund Management, which was once Singapore's biggest hedge fund manager with US$4.5 billion. After two years of losing money, co-founder Stephen Diggle on Tuesday announced the fund was closing. In 2008 its funds posted the best returns among Asian funds by betting on volatility, and Atradis took the view that market swings would help them outperform again in 2009. Alas, this was not to be and the funds made double-digit losses over the next two years. "The fact that we had a specific long volatility mandate was why the firm grew so large. But in the last two years, it has been an Achilles' heel," Diggle lamented to Bloomberg. Let's hope he finds his genius again.

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16. Anton eyes 350m yuan drilling services boost
南华早报 2011-01-27 BIZ, BIZ2

Anton Oilfield Services Group, which helps oil and gas producers boost output for technically challenging drilling projects, plans to spend 350 million yuan (HK$413.75 million) in the next three years to boost its  service capacity.

The Beijing-based privately owned firm needs the capacity to tap opportunities in the fast-growing domestic natural gas market as well as overseas, where mainland state-owned energy producers have aggressively sought acquisitions.

Vice-president Peter Pi Zhifeng says the central government plans to double the nation's annual gas production in 2015 to 170 billion cubic metres (bcm) from 83 bcm last year.

In this cake, 80 per cent of the projects are easy, 20 per cent are difficult and risky, he said. PetroChina and Sinopec, with over one million staff responsible for oil and gas field services, big and conservative as they are, lack the incentive system to encourage innovation and risk-taking.

Anton plans to provide the surgeries for difficult drilling projects, leaving the flu and colds to be handled by the services arms of the two state-owned giants.

The gas industry's growth will also be driven by unconventional gas sources, such as methane gas trapped between coal seams, or gas in compressed rocks.

Advanced technology and expertise are required to extract these hard-to-reach resources. One of its specialties is expensive horizontal drilling that involves boring multiple wells laterally through gas-bearing rock at angles from a vertical well bore to reach more gas reservoirs.

Anton derives 70 per cent of its revenues from gas projects and 30 per cent from oil projects.

Pi says the industry is projected to spend 600 billion yuan over the next decade on all forms of natural gas development, up from 89 billion yuan in the previous decade.

Copyright (c) 2011. South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.

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17. Somewhere
南华早报 2011-01-27 Going Out, G07

Starring: Stephen Dorff, Elle FanningDirector: Sofia CoppolaCategory: IIB (English and Italian)

Somewhere is about someone going nowhere, stuck in the torpor of a celebrity treadmill that he doesn't know how to, or won't, step off.

This is hardly new terrain for Coppola, and Somewhere isn't her best attempt at representing how one navigates such ennui. Lost in Translation, her 2003 film about a middle-aged actor and a star photographer's wife rediscovering their lost bearings in Tokyo, does a better job of it. What makes Somewhere a somewhat beguiling piece, however, is Coppola's rediscovery of her own aesthetic bearings. She delivers a chamber piece that draws the viewer in with its details, its genteel humour and a slowly altering relationship that makes a dent but never really threatens to explode into full-scale histrionics and closure.

At the centre of Somewhere is actor Johnny (Stephen Dorff), a resident at a celebrity-filled Los Angeles hotel. He does his job by enduring mundane questions at press conferences and humiliating experiences doing publicity events, such as a tension-driven photo session with a co-star he might have had a fling with. Johnny indulges in excesses with minimal enthusiasm, to the point of falling asleep while watching a private pole-dancing performance in his room.

He is shown as a pawn at the mercy of others. He's endlessly questioned and instructed by disembodied voices - his agent, his chauffeur, journalists, party-goers. Johnny's life changes with the appearance of his daughter, Cleo (Elle Fanning, above with Dorff), a composed and compliant child. Coppola never plays her as Johnny's antithesis or antagonist - rather than challenging his lethargy, Cleo follows his cue, playing his video games and following him on a foreign sojourn. She even quietly tolerates her father's sexual frolics and the appearance of interlopers in their erstwhile, tight father-daughter relationship.

Somewhere has its charms, but its closeness to Coppola's own life - she has acknowledged in interviews that her own experiences, as the daughter of Francis Ford Coppola, fed into parts of the story - might have dulled the film's edge.

By not challenging her characters' nuances and narcissism, Coppola condemns Somewhere to an eerie weightlessness: Johnny's lethargy is never really addressed. When tempers finally fray, engagement is already off the cards. Melancholy has its limits, possibly, and such meandering doesn't really work in a two-hander like Somewhere.

Clarence Tsui

Somewhere opens today

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18. Bars
南华早报 2011-01-27 Going Out, G06

208 Duecento Otto

G/F, 208 Hollywood Road, Sheung Wan. Tel: 2549 0208. One of the most talked-about new additions to the Hollywood Road nightlife scene is a former meat storage warehouse transformed into a slice of New York cool by a team who were named the best young designers of 2004 by Wallpaper. Recommended: the extensive wine and cocktail list.

Aqua Spirit

29-30/F, 1 Peking Road, Tsim Sha Tsui. Tel: 3427 2288. Too many turn their noses up at Kowloon, but there's one thing you need to come here for: an unmatched view of Hong Kong. Aqua does this better than all other bars, hands down. Recommended: its signature "Aquatini" is the icing on the cake while enjoying the famous view.

4 Baby Buddha

18 Wo On Lane, Central. Tel: 2167 7244. Its tucked-away alley location and cool, minimalist d嶰or make this the perfect spot for a quiet drink before hitting SoHo or Lan Kwai Fong. Recommended: the Around the World cocktail, a lethal combination of gin, Scotch, brandy, rum and vodka masked under fresh fruity flavours of orange, lemon and pineapple.

4 The Blck Brd

Captain's Bar

Mandarin Oriental, 5 Connaught Rd, Central. Tel: 2825 4006. Despite its location next to the lobby of the Mandarin Oriental, Captain's Bar has a relaxed atmosphere, with comfy brown leather chairs and plenty of room around the bar. Recommended: the signature Royal Blush (HK$168) is a smooth combination of vodka, lime, mint and cherry pur嶪, topped with champagne.

The Chapel

27 Yik Yam Street, Happy Valley. Tel: 2834 6565. Whether for a pre-race warm up or post-win celebration, The Chapel's broad range of beers will satisfy anyone in Happy Valley. Recommended: its curries are well-known in Hong Kong, and a great way to soak up the booze after the races.

4 Dada Bar and Lounge

2/F The Luxe Manor, 39 Kimberly Road, Tsim Sha Tsui. Tel: 3763 8778. Bold leather couches and dim lighting make for a swanky and impressive destination in Tsim Sha Tsui. Recommended: the eponymous Dada cocktail includes pomegranate, light rum and lime, with a touch of spearmint.

Dragon-I

UG/F The Centrium, 60 Wyndham Street, Central. Tel: 3110 1222. Dragon-i has the strongest reputation for late-night clubbing and as a place to see and be seen. Book ahead and sample the high life. Recommended: any of its cocktails or enjoy a bottle of 10-year-old Chinese rice wine, to see if it's any better than the rest.

Hush

G/F, 2 Gleanealy, Central. Tel: 2537 2281. This chill-out bar away from the hubbub of nearby Lan Kwai Fong and Wyndham Street offers a casual place to unwind, particularly on the outdoor rattan lounges. Recommended: the impressive molecular cocktails such as the Mr Grey (HK$110), a refreshing martini made of crushed cucumber, apple juice, Earl Grey tea, gin and elderflower syrup.

Hyde

2-3/F Lyndhurst Tower, 1 Lyndhurst Terrace, Central. Tel: 2522 2608. Spread over two floors, this New York loft-style venue incorporates a lounge, club and terraces in 12,000 sq ft. Classy but unpretentious. Recommended: the selection of premium whiskys including vintage Macallan.

Lily

6/F LKF Tower, 33 Wyndham St, Central. Tel: 2810 6166. Modelled after the salons and supper clubs that flourished at the turn of the century, this slice of old-school cool comes courtesy of the people who brought us Volar and Halo. Recommended: the Elderflower Paloma, combining tequila, lime, grapefruit and soda water infused with elderflower.

The Pawn

62 Johnston Road, Wan Chai. Tel: 2866 3444. Relax in the beautifully restored historic building with natural light, low leather couches and a beautifully calm atmosphere. Recommended: Leffe Brune, a beer not often available elsewhere and a good one at that.

Psychic Jack

1/F, 30-32 Wyndham Street, Central. Tel: 2868 6102. This deliciously decadent addition to the Wyndham Street sceneis all comfortable, relaxing hues, while the Central nightlife bursts into life around you. Recommended: the lemon drops (HK$76) and the Long Beach iced tea (HK$102).

Salon de Ning

Sevva

25/F Prince's Building, 10 Chater Road, Central. Tel: 2537 1388. Indoor and (spacious) outdoor seating gives Sevva a nice edge. Particularly given the incredible skyscraper views. Recommended: at Sevva it's the desserts that will steal your heart.

The Globe

Garley Building, 45-53 Graham Street, Central. Tel: 2543 1941. The Globe is a smart English pub, with one of the widest and best selections of beers in Hong Kong, as well as excellent pub fare. Recommended: Typhoon T8, which is brewed on Lantau Island.

4 The Living Room

6/F W Hotel, Kowloon Station. Tel: 3717 2222. It's easy to kick back and feel right at home in this sprawling, beautifully designed bar complete with board games and bookcases - just help yourself. Recommended: the awesome lychee martinis and the HK$198 deal for all the New World wine you can possibly drink.

Woolloomooloo

31/F The Hennessy, 256 Hennessy Road, Wan Chai. Tel: 2893 6960. With amazing views over the city through the floor-to-ceiling windows, and from the breathtaking rooftop bar, Woolloomooloo is bringing a new kind of cool to Wan Chai. Recommended: everything tastes pretty good when you're already on top of the world.

Zuma

Level 5-6, The Landmark, 15 Queen's Road Central. Tel: 3657 6388. The local counterpart to the trendy London restaurant, Zuma is as popular for its innovative cocktails as it is for its divine Japanese cuisine. The well-placed terrace offers a smog-free, chic view of busy Queen's Road Central. Recommended: summer cocktails blending classic Western liquors with Japanese drinks such as sake and shochu.

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19. Bunny business
南华早报 2011-01-27 Going Out, G03

There's nothing straightforward about the Year of the Rabbit, say fung shui experts

As the Tiger wanders off back into the wilderness and the Rabbit hops into view, you might think we'll be in for tamer times. Think again. The year of the bunny heralds 12 months of backstabbing and celebrity sex scandals. Oh, and be careful to prevent misfortune if you were born in the years of the Rat or the Rooster. That's the view of fung shui experts in Hong Kong, including master Raymond Lo.

In general, the year will be more peaceful on the outside [but] with back-stabbing and secret attacks, says Lo, a professional fung shui expert and destiny consultant who has appeared on global television stations BBC and CNN and spoken at the World Economic Forum. It will still be a time of tension and secret conflict.

Why is the cuddly bunny such a divisive figure? Well, it's a little more complicated than that. The Rabbit, the fourth of the 12 animals in the Chinese zodiac, is a wood sign, like the Tiger. But in the full zodiac cycle of 60 years - represented by the five basic influential elements of metal, water, wood, fire and earth - it is also a metal year. That's read by diviners as metal chopping wood, which Lo explains is a time of conflict and environmental disaster.

Since the more feminine yin, rather than masculine yang, is pervasive this year, the conflict will likely be hidden. Lo says the year is best symbolised by a dagger. It's like a small knife stabbing people in the back, he says. Wars will go underground and there will be terrorist acts. There will still be problems for the environment.

Closer to home, Hong Kong is in a supercycle period of good fortune until 2024, but that doesn't mean there won't be woes. And while the Rabbit may be the flower of romance, Lo says, under such problematic influences that signals a year of gossip, sex scandals and information leaks.

As the Tiger's fire cools in the Rabbit year, investors will find most luck in the stock market in July before a downturn later in the year, says fung shui expert Yeung Tin-ming. Yeung warns people to be careful of lung problems and respiratory diseases, which suggests Hong Kong's pollution problem won't be clearing any time soon.

Horses may enjoy the best year, and the Rabbit year is a good time to get married or have a baby, according to Yeung. Goats have power in ascendance so will do well in their careers, gaining a promotion, a pay rise - or perhaps both. Snakes and Tigers can also look forward to a good year.

According to Lo, people born in the years of the Dog, Pig or Goat can expect more luck as they're in harmony with the Rabbit. Roosters should avoid driving to steer clear of potential accidents, says geomancer Peter So Man-fung. Single Rats will likely find a partner, and those already dating may well end up getting hitched, he says. Horses will also find it easy to form new social groups and romantic relationships.

The economy will take turn for the worse in winter after a good summer and autumn,  but residents don't have to worry about new outbreaks of Sars, or flu of the bird or swine variety.

Overall, Hong Kong can expect few major dramas, So says. Overall, it won't be a particularly good or bad year.

Ringing in the Rabbit

Lunar New Year offers a feast of festivities, from fireworks over the harbour to the annual parade, local lion dances and throwing your wishes on a tree in Lam Tsuen. But how best to ring in the new year? Unlike Western traditions that revolve around alcohol and bars, the lunar festival is all about getting outside to gather under the moonlight. Revellers can always mix the two. Here's five ways to ring in the Year of the Rabbit.

1. Eat a bowl of poon choi
The traditional dish of the Lunar New Year's Eve family gathering is a big pot of Chinese gourmet delicacies, likely to include abalone, mushrooms, seaweed, shrimps, chicken and dried scallops. The dish has evolved into a diverse and often luxurious affair since its simple Hakka roots, and nowadays poon choi can be bought ready-made from restaurants or eaten in. Among the most popular places to tuck in is the Super Star Group chain, which has branches in Central, Tsim Sha Tsui and Causeway Bay.

2. Join the flower power movement
If you don't mind crowds, join the throng at Victoria Park at the biggest of 14 markets set up across Hong Kong for the festive season. Whether it's a tangerine plant to bring family blessings or cherry blossoms to signify romance, markets offer flowers but much more, from inflatable toys to good luck charms. Food stalls sell yummy skewers of curried fish balls and siu mai to warm the crowds. The market is open from noon to midnight.

3. Light a firecracker
For true tradition, you're best to get out of the city and into the rural villages of the New Territories and Outlying Islands, where celebrations are explosive - with firecrackers, lion dancers and people banging drums. Popular partying areas such as Yung Shue Wan on Lamma and Shek O beach offer perfect vantage points for those who want to drink-in the new year. Just be careful when you step into the street not to get too near the firecrackers dangled from windows just above your head.

4. Shake a stick
Feeling really brave? Then join the crush at a temple to burn incense sticks to give thanks for the Year of the Tiger's blessings and seek good fortune in the coming 12 months. There are scores of temples across the city, but the busiest is Kowloon's Sik Sik Yuen Wong Tai Sin Temple, open all night from 9pm, where jostling for position is almost a blood sport. Its new Tai Shui Yuen Chen hall, which charges HK$100 to get in, with no incense burning allowed, is a more sedate option.

5. Have a night on the tiles
If you don't fancy the crowds, you can do what most people do. Gather with relatives or friends for a feast, crack open a bottle of cognac - and set up the mahjong table. Gambling is Hong Kong's top hobby, so what better way to try your New Year's luck than a few rounds of mahjong? If you don't have the equipment or know the rules, you can always try bridge or poker instead.

Copyright (c) 2011. South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.

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20. Mainland rents to eclipse those from HK for Hang Lung
南华早报 2011-01-27 BIZ, BIZ2

Hang Lung Properties, which reported a 77 per cent plunge in underlying interim profit, expects rental income from the mainland will surpass Hong Kong next year.

Excluding the gain on revaluation of investment properties, the developer's core earnings dropped to HK$1.27 billion for the six months to December, from HK$5.5 billion a year earlier. Hang Lung said the decline was mainly due to a lack of earnings from property sales.

Operating profit from property sales dropped to HK$2 million, with contribution coming mainly from the sale of car parking spaces in Ho Man Tin. That compared with HK$5.33 billion in the same period in 2009.

Rental income recorded 13 per cent growth to HK$2.07 billion.

Turnover totalled HK$2.52 billion, down 74 per cent from the same period in 2009. Directors declared an interim dividend of 17 HK cents per share, the same as a year ago.

"We are looking forward to a harvest following our 10-year effort on the mainland. The next several decades will be our golden era," chairman Ronnie Chan Chi-chung said.

Rental income derived from the mainland - largely from Hang Lung's Plaza 66 and The Grand Gateway in Shanghai - rose 15 per cent to HK$929 million in the first half of the year. Palace 66 at Shenyang, which opened in June last year, was fully let.

Its mainland investment portfolio accounted for 44.83 per cent of the HK$2.07 billion in total rental income, while the remainder was contributed from its Hong Kong.

"Rental income in the mainland will be boosted as new commercial projects in the mainland started to open in coming years," he said.

Managing director Philip Chen Nan-lok said that more than 80 per cent of the 171,000 square metre Parc 66 in Jinan, due to be opened in August, had been pre-leased.

"More than half of the tenants are international brand names and will open their flagship stores in Jinan," he said.

Chan said Hang Lung planned to spend HK$11 billion, raised through a share placement in November last year, to finance the construction of its commercial projects in the mainland this year and next.

The developer planned to invest HK$40 billion to build six commercial developments in Jinan, Wuxi, Dalian, Tianjin and two in Shenyang.

He said the developer might increase its investment in the mainland through expanding the existing projects or acquiring more development sites.

In Hong Kong, Chan said the firm held 1,400 units, with an estimated value of HK$20 billion, at Harbourside at Kowloon Station and The Long Beach at Tai Kok Tsui.

Without giving the timetable, he said the firm would consider selling them only during a market boom.

Meanwhile, Hang Lung Group reported underlying interim profit fell 74 per cent to HK$790 million.

It declared an interim dividend of 19 HK cents, same as a year ago. Shares in Hang Lung Properties rose 0.28 per cent to HK$34.9 yesterday while Hang Lung Group was up 0.99 per cent to HK$50.75.

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21. Down payment raised as Beijing imposes more property curbs
南华早报 2011-01-27 EDT, EDT6

China has raised the minimum down payment for buying a second home to 60 per cent from 50 per cent in a move to further limit the risk of an asset bubble.

The State Council yesterday unveiled eight measures to curb property prices, including requiring local governments to set price controls, but made no mention of a widely expected property tax.

"China will continue to effectively curb investment and speculative purchases of houses to consolidate and expand on previous measures," said a statement on the State Council's website.

The country's leaders, acutely aware of public anger over unaffordable housing prices, have said they will not tolerate property inflation and speculation. Annual property inflation fell to 6.4 per cent last month from November's 7.7 per cent, although sequential momentum has remained strong, with prices rising 0.3 per cent on a monthly basis.

Municipal governments have a vested interest in the booming property sector, which provides much of their tax revenue.

According to the statement, city governments must set property price control targets in line with local income levels for this year and need to make the targets public by March 31.

"Local governments must shoulder responsibility for the stable and healthy development of the property market," it said.

The State Council reaffirmed a pledge to build more affordable homes to meet demand from low and middle-income groups.

While the statement did not mention the long-discussed property tax, the government will step up tax collection in the property sector.

An individual who sells his property within five years after purchase will have the revenue taxed under the new policy. Previously, only the price difference is taxed in most cases.

Lenders will continue to charge "differentiated" interest rates on mortgages. For second-home buyers, the rates should be at least 110 per cent of the benchmark rates. Local residents are barred from buying if they own more than two houses.

Analysts said the measures might achieve their intended goal.

"These are the unprecedentedly harsh policies, and will definitely weigh down [property] prices," said Hua Zhongwei, an analyst with Huachuang Securities in Beijing.

"The new measures are very strict. If property sales plunge, some developers will definitely run out of cash," said Shen Aiqing, an analyst with GF Securities in Guangzhou.

Despite the measures rolled out to control the property sector, prices have stayed stubbornly high.

Soho China's chief executive Zhang Xin said in Davos, Switzerland, the harsh measures were having a limited impact on prices and developers were still enjoying stellar sales. "You would expect the market to completely collapse, but just look at all the listed developers. Nearly everybody reported a record year."

Additional reporting by Reuters, Bloomberg , Associated Press

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22. Huawei gets US court to restrain Motorola
南华早报 2011-01-27 BIZ, BIZ2

Huawei Technologies, the mainland's largest telecommunications equipment manufacturer, won a court order in the United States that prevented Motorola from disclosing any of its confidential information to rival Nokia Siemens Networks (NSN).

The Shenzhen-based Huawei has co-operated with Motorola in the radio access network and core network businesses since 2000.

It filed a lawsuit on Monday for a preliminary injunction to bar the transfer of trade secrets to NSN, which wants to complete a deal made in July to buy Motorola's wireless network business for US$1.2 billion.

The US District Court in Illinois granted Huawei a temporary restraining order against Motorola, independent public companies Motorola Mobility and Motorola Solutions, and NSN, according to court filings obtained yesterday.

The presiding judge, Sharon Coleman, also ordered the defendants to notify the court and the plaintiff within 24 hours of any action taken by China's Ministry of Commerce on the pending purchase.

Regulators in the US and European Union have approved the NSN acquisition, which was expected to close in the first quarter of the year.

Huawei, Motorola and NSN have declined to comment on the case.

Motorola bought Huawei's GSM, 3G and other wireless infrastructure products and sold these to customers under its own brand. The US company also received confidential information on Huawei's product specifications, designs, software and hardware implementations, pricing and other commercial data.

Huawei says it has tried to ensure NSN will not get that data, but Motorola has not responded with assurances that it will prevent disclosure of that information to NSN. It said the illegal transfer of its proprietary commercial property would result in irreparable commercial damage.

Copyright (c) 2011. South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.

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23. Skewed kind of parenthood
南华早报 2011-01-27 EDT, EDT12

There has been an uproar over the book Battle Hymn of the Tiger Mother, by Amy Chua. Mothers like Ms Chua can be found all over the world.

Their parenting style has some common features, such as not letting their children relax and enjoy social activities and making them focus only on their homework.

I understand that mothers want their children to be successful, but they are going too far by demanding absolute obedience.

These young people could grow up lacking creativity and independence and not knowing anything about the world.

They can learn important social skills from sleepovers, parties and extra-curricular activities. The tiger mothers overlook this and forbid their children from taking part in such activities.

Youngsters need to be able to learn these interpersonal skills so they can integrate into society. We are fed up with self-centered superhuman individuals who have high IQs, but nothing else.

Parents must give their children freedom to explore the world.

Iris Chung Ka-wing, Ngau Chi Wan

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24. Shaw sells TVB stake in estimated HK$5.2b deal
南华早报 2011-01-27 EDT, EDT1,EDT2

Shaw Brothers (Hong Kong), owned by 102-year-old media mogul Sir Run Run Shaw, has agreed to sell its entire shareholding in Television Broadcasts (TVB) to an investor group led by local dealmaker Charles Chan Kwok-keung and Taiwanese entrepreneur Wang Cher.

The operator of Hong Kong's biggest free-to-air TV network said the deal was signed yesterday and would be completed on or before March 31.

In a filing with the Hong Kong stock exchange last night, TVB said Shaw Brothers would sell its entire 26 per cent in the company. This represents 113,888,628 shares.

Terms of the transaction were not disclosed and it was not clear last night exactly how much Chan, Wang and Providence Equity Partners - the other member of the investor group - offered for the Shaw Brothers shares.

However, TVB's shares closed at HK$45.90 last night and that means the deal could be worth about HK$5.2 billion.

The deal is not a surprise as it was widely speculated that Shaw wanted to sell his TV empire.

"It is easy to understand the reason for Sir Shaw to sell his media empire. He is old and it's not very pragmatic for him to continue taking care of business. The day of handing over was always going to come sooner or later," said Wang Ran, chief executive of boutique investment bank China eCapital Corp.

"For him, he can keep this legendary media giant to himself, or he can cash it in and use the money to do things in which he is interested, charity and so on. When there is a proper pricing, he sells it."

TVB last night said Chan, Wang and Providence chief executive Jonathan Nelson would be nominated to join the TVB board on completion of the deal.

Chan, the chairman of ITC Corp, is a well-known dealmaker who has dabbled in the media industry before. In 2000, he was behind a takeover of Sing Pao, one of Hong Kong's oldest news publications. Chan sold his shares in that company within two years. He is also known for his good relationship with Li Ka-shing.

Wang is the daughter of Taiwanese tycoon Wang Yung-ching, one of the island's richest tycoons with an estimated net worth of US$5.5 billion. She founded smartphone maker HTC Corp and chipmaker VIA Technologies.

Providence Equity Partners is a United States-based private equity firm with more than US$22 billion of capital under management.

The Shaw Foundation Hong Kong, which currently has 27,286,200 shares or a 6.23 per cent in the issued share capital of TVB, will dispose of a portion of its shareholding to certain independent third parties on or before the completion of Shaw Brothers' divestment in March.

Mona Fong Yat-wah, deputy chairwoman and the wife of Shaw, currently holds 1,146,000 shares, or a 0.26 per cent stake, in TVB.

The announcement ends months of speculation over who would seize control of TVB, which Shaw founded in 1967. Shaw gave up his executive duties in 2009 to become the non-executive chairman. He is the biggest shareholder in TVB with a 32.5 per cent stake, comprising shares held personally and the 26 per cent holding owned by Shaw Brothers (Hong Kong).

Last year, the reported front runners to buying the Shaw family's TVB stake included Henderson Land Development vice-chairman Peter Lee Ka-kit and Shanghai Media Group, the mainland's second-largest media company.

Besides dominating the Hong Kong market, TVB is a major Chinese television programming distributor worldwide. Its programmes mainly cover Southeast Asia, including Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia. It also owns a pay-television channel in Taiwan, TVBS.

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英文虎报 A
 1. Huge slice for property
英文虎报 2011-01-27 Business, P14

The People's Bank of China said domestic lenders gave 2.02 trillion yuan (HK$2.4 trillion) in new loans to the property sector in 2010, making up a quarter of all new loans. Total loans to developers hit 591.6 billion yuan from 576.4 billion yuan in 2009.

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 2. Kazakh miner hopes to scoop US$600 from flotation
英文虎报 2011-01-27 Business, P14

London-listed copper miner Kazakhmys wants to raise up to US$600 million (HK$4.68 billion) through a secondary listing in Hong Kong in the first half, sources said yesterday, following other producers of raw material.

The miner - set to be the first Kazakh firm to list in Hong Kong - has an annual production capacity of 350,000 tonnes of copper, according to a report from Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

China accounted for 28 percent of Kazakhmys' revenue in 2009. The was when declining commodity prices cut net profit to US$554 million, down 39.05 percent on 2008.

Australia-listed lithium producer Galaxy Resources also seeks a secondary listing in the SAR to raise US$300 million. The deal should be launched in February by joint bookrunners BNP Paribas and Morgan Stanley.

Six non-Chinese raw metal and mining firms listed in Hong Kong last year. They included the world's largest aluminum producer, UC Rusal (0486), which was also the first Russian firm to list in Hong Kong.

China Hongqiao opens its retail books today to raise up to HK$17.2 billion, selling 1.74 billion shares at HK$7.10-9.90 apiece.

Telefield International (1143) rose 2.5 percent in the gray market to HK$1.23 from an offer price of HK$1.20, according to Phillip Securities. Shareholders posted a paper gain of HK$60 per board lot of 2,000. MANDY LO AND AGENCIES

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 3. Sofa so good
英文虎报 2011-01-27 Home, P23

Buying a new sofa - one of the largest and most-used pieces of furniture in your home, the scene of much reading, TV watching, snoozing and everything else- ing - is not a task to take on lightly. You want comfort, style, durability, fabric that will withstand a spill and color that'll hide pet hair.

And you don't want to pay too much. But what's too much?

Prices can vary depending on the store and the manufacturer. Some of those differences are cosmetic, but most of what separates the high-end from the low-end is under the hood.

Pricier sofas generally have goose- down cushions for ultimate softness and are made with the most durable materials, including kiln-dried hardwood to prevent warping, doweled joints for maximum stability, and eight- way hand-tied springs to prevent sagging. At high-end stores, you're also paying for the design quality, the knowledge of the sales staff and the ability to customize just about anything.

Ultimately, said Peter Howlett, director of operations at high-end furniture maker George Smith, where sofas run between US$10,000 (HK$78,000) and US$20,000, you're paying for longevity. "It's going to last four generations because of the materials we use and the way it's crafted," said Howlett. That's not a knock on cheaper sofas, he said: "All have a relevance in their market."

Five keys to smart sofa shopping

No matter your budget, a sofa is a big investment. Here are five tips for shopping wisely, courtesy of furniture maker Mitchell Gold.

Measure. There's nothing worse than buying a dream sofa you can't get into your home. Go shopping armed with precise measurements of your stairwell, elevator, doors, hallways, garden gates and any other space your new sofa might have to squeeze through.

While in the store, sink into the sofa the way you would at home. So lie down and put your feet up if that's how you plan to use it, and test its comfort. Make sure the armrests are well-padded: you don't want to feel wood poking through.

The sturdiest sofa frame will be made of kiln-dried hardwood like maple, poplar, beech or oak, or engineered hardwood. Avoid air-dried wood or soft woods, such as pine. Joints secured with corner blocking, dowels and screws will last longer than just glue and staples, and it's best to have a ticking between the foam cushion and fabric cover. Check stitches to make sure they're even and not bunched.

Consider the cushions. The softest, most luxurious cushions are filled with goose down, but they take a lot of regular fluffing to keep their shape. Less expensive cushions made of high- resiliency foam compress during use and then spring back to shape. A happy medium: an inner foam core wrapped with a down cover.

Notice design details. Check out the arms: A roll arm is more traditional, while a square or straight arm looks more modern. If you want to put the sofa in the middle of the room rather than against a wall, ensure the back is presentable.

Pick a fabric, any fabric

Just because you can get a sofa in just about any fabric doesn't mean you should. Interior designer Nick Olsen offers some advice.

Microsuede or ultrasuede are unbeatable for stain resistance. Another resilient option is cotton velvet. Don't forget to try Belgian linen or cotton canvas in summer. Beware gorgeous fabrics like silk velvet: one water stain, and it's there forever. Trends are moving away from loopy boucle fabrics and nubby wool blends. Classic, crisp and tailored is in.

Unless you're very daring, get a sofa in a neutral color and add color with throw pillows or blankets. "Resist the urge to buy a red or blue sofa," Olsen said. "It could be the giant smurf in the room." On the flip side, don't do a beige sofa with beige pillows. Dark colors are best at hiding stains and imperfections, but beware muddy colors, which can look dreary.

If ordering online, always request to have a fabric swatch sent to you. What looks beige online could look yellow or tan in your living room.

Get a tight-fitting slipcover instead of reupholstering so that you can change colors.

CHICAGO TRIBUNE (MCT)

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 4. Volatile markets slash Exchange Fund returns
英文虎报 2011-01-27 Top News, P08

The Exchange Fund's investment income last year plunged 26 percent to HK$79 billion because of volatile global markets.

Hong Kong Monetary Authority chief executive Norman Chan Tak-lam expects the market situation to remain the same this year.

The investment return last year was 3.6 percent, down 2.3 percentage points from the previous year, and also below the average investment return of 5.9 percent from 1994 to the present.

Despite the drop, Chan said it was better than expected given the weak investor sentiment caused by the European sovereign debt crisis in the first half of last year.

Foreign exchange turned from a profit of HK$9.8 billion in 2009 to a loss of HK$3.1 billion, while income from Hong Kong equities and foreign equities fell to HK$11.6 billion and HK$27 billion, respectively, down 76.3 percent and 44.7 percent .

But the fund's performance was within expectations since the global investment environment was very tough last year, said Eddy Wong Chin-wai, research manager of iFAST Financial (Hong Kong).

Chan remains cautious on financial markets this year as the US and emerging market economies are facing a number of challenges. He added that the authority's investment team will diversify its portfolio to hedge against instability and uncertainty.

The team has started to invest in several new types of assets, including equities and bonds in emerging markets, private funds and overseas real estate, he said.

``Yuan-denominated bonds and equities will also be considered,'' Chan said. ``But the asset ratio of yuan products will be limited.''

He said the People's Bank of China has given the authority the green light to invest up to 15 billion yuan (HK$17.74 billion) on bonds issued in the mainland.

Of last year's return, HK$33.8 billion has been paid as fiscal reserves to the government, while the Exchange Fund's accumulated surplus rose by HK$37.9 billion to HK$594.1 billion. ellen.wang@singtaonewscorp.com

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 5. Big Apple - ripe for the picking
英文虎报 2011-01-27 Property, P18

I am really excited about New York this year and it's been a long time coming.

Most people think that the recession in the United States started in August 2008, when Lehman Brothers collapsed. However, it began much earlier, especially in the property market, which was under water a year before the collapse. In terms of real estate, we have always said that New York would recover more quickly than any other place in the United States, and also that the market would face a lower recessionary trough - and we have been correct.

Over the past 18 months we have been waiting for the right opportunity and to see momentum in the US market, which is what we are starting to see now.

New York is the largest city in the United States with a population of 8.3 million and it houses the headquarters of eight of the world's top 10 financial security firms.

While people are understandably concerned about the banking crisis, people forget that New York is a major global financial hub: 790,000 companies operate in New York, and you can see this by how quickly the city's economy has rebounded.

In 2010, property prices increased by 10.2 percent. We are now seeing green shoots of recovery and finding fantastic opportunities.

Nouriel Roubini and John R Taylor (both better known as "Dr Dooms" of finance), and John Paulson, the hedge fund manager who made massively successful bets on when the housing bubble would burst, are some of Wall Street's heavyweights who have recently purchased residential property in New York. This is perhaps the most positive sign for Manhattan's property market since the financial crisis.

We are continually searching for prime residential real estate. When there is blood on the streets, you buy property, and not just any property but the best you can find.

I would advise investors to strongly consider the New York market, which has several distressed opportunities now available at substantial discounts, and that are located in the center of Manhattan.

For example, a 3,000-square-foot luxury apartment in London would be priced at about US$7.5 million (HK$58.5 million), while in Hong Kong it could be US$5.1 million. By comparison, a New York apartment of that size would set you back US$4.5 million.

There are opportunities appealing to every investor - from those seeking to gain a foothold in a market which they could previously not afford to seasoned investors seeking to invest in prime residential properties at a highly discounted price point.

My outlook for the New York market is very positive. This view is shared by New York's elite, including Paulson, who earned US$15 billion for his company in one year by successfully predicting when the housing bubble would burst.

He said: "If you already own one, now's the time to buy another one. If you already own two, it's time to help your children buy a home."

Supply of property in New York is exceptionally tight and there is a lot of money still floating around the market. I believe it will outperform Hong Kong, Singapore, London, Beijing and Shanghai, making it my top market for 2011.

Tim Murphy is the founder and chief executive officer of IP Global, a property investment company specializing in emerging and recovering markets. To date, it has invested over US$900 million on behalf of its clients in 19 markets across the globe.

www.ipglobal-ltd.com.

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 6. Daughter enters fray as Ho `resolves' issue
英文虎报 2011-01-27 Top News, P06

Casino billionaire Stanley Ho Hung-sun finally spoke openly about the family strife over his fortune - saying the problem has been ``resolved'' and he does not need any lawyer to represent him.

But late night, in another twist, Angela Ho Chiu-yin - the low-profile daughter of Ho's late first wife Clementina Leitao - released a statement saying she could not believe her family had been ``left with nothing at all.''

Earlier, the tycoon - just 13 hours after releasing a written statement - invited East Week, The Standard's sister magazine, together with Ta Kung Pao and TVB to a noon press briefing at the luxury Peak home of his third wife Ina Chan Un- chan.

The 89-year-old wheelchair-bound tycoon was accompanied by Chan and her daughter Florinda Ho Chiu-wan. Ho slowly uttered the words of a written statement that was placed in front of him next to the television camera. He smiled while reading.

``Media friends, I'm fine. I am upset about the recent saga. I have loved my family members in the past 10 years,'' Ho said. ``We have never sued each other. I reaffirm the statement which I gave last night. The problem has been resolved. I thank [lawyer] Gordon [Oldham] for his involvement but I don't need him now.

``Everything has been settled, I don't want to make any further change. Thank you for your concern.'' He did not take any questions.

Two hours later, fourth wife Angela Leong On- kei and his daughters Daisy Ho Chiu-fung and Maisy Ho Chiu-ha - from second wife Lucina Laam King-ying - also went to Chan's home. Leong stayed for only 20 minutes as the tycoon was sleeping and left with her daughter Sabrina Ho Chiu- ying. However, Leong returned half an hour later.

Angela Ho visited with her husband, saying she was invited by Chan for a family meeting. Leong then left with Stanley Ho and together they went back to Ho's home in Repulse Bay.

Oldham visited Ho and stayed for 15 minutes.

In a statement last night, Angela Ho said: ``I cannot believe that my father would leave my mother's family with nothing at all.

``Her connections in Portugal and standing in Macau society was a big factor for my father winning the gambling monopoly.

``My father speaks to me often and has stated publicly about how he intends to divide his estate evenly amongst his children.''

Meanwhile, after visiting the tycoon, Oldham went to the High Court. When asked if he would file a case, the lawyer replied: ``I think you will be surprised.''

He issued a statement in the evening saying he is still acting on behalf of Stanley Ho and represents his interests in his companies Sociedade de Turismo e Diverses de Macau, (parent company of SJM), SJM, and Lanceford, to which Ho transferred his stake in STDM.

Before SJM (0880) announced Ho's transfer of shares to second wife Laam's siblings and third wife Chan on Monday, a source said Oldham sent letters to Laam, Pansy Ho Chiu-king and her siblings Daisy Ho and Lawrence Ho Yau-lung, and Chan on Sunday. The letters stated that if the transfer of stakes were to proceed, then the matter would be brought to court today or to police.

Leong, as managing director of SJM, reiterated that she could not comment on the saga.

SJM, which was suspended from trading on Tuesday, plunged as much as 8.84 percent yesterday morning to HK$12.58 and closed at HK$13.12, down 4.93 percent.

bonnie.chen@singtaonewscorp.com

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 7. Tencent to link up with Japan gaming firm
英文虎报 2011-01-27 Business, P15

Japanese mobile social gaming firm Gree said yesterday it will link up with China's Tencent Holdings (0700), giving it access to a market where 120 million people already play mobile games.

Gree said it will share a common development platform with China's largest internet firm by market value, allowing developers of games and other applications to offer their services to customers of both companies.

With more than 20 million subscribers, Gree makes about four-fifths of its revenue by selling virtual clothing and accessories that users buy for on-screen representations of themselves. In August, it became Japan's largest online social network.

But with growth likely to slow at home as the pool of untapped customers shrinks, the company needs to find new markets to keep profits rising.

Gree brings experience in social gaming on mobile phones, a platform that in Japan is already larger than PC-based networking, to Tencent, which controls about one-third of China's online gaming market as well as the largest online messaging platform.

China's mobile games market was worth an estimated 2.6 billion yuan in 2010.*Note start required* REUTERS

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 8. Robert Kissel set for divorce, says witness
英文虎报 2011-01-27 Local, P13

Banker Robert Kissel was preparing for a possible divorce and promotion to a new job in Tokyo when he was killed in 2003, his former colleague David Noh told the Court of First Instance yesterday.

Kissel's wife, Nancy, is being retried for allegedly murdering him.

``Rob was very close to finding out he was taking a role in Japan,'' Noh said.

Nancy Kissel, 46, has pleaded guilty to manslaughter and not guilty to murder. Her 2005 murder conviction was ruled unfair by the Court of Final Appeal last February and a retrial ordered.

It is alleged Kissel killed her husband, 40, with a lead ornament after drugging him with a laced milkshake.

The Merrill Lynch banker planned to live in Hong Kong and commute to Tokyo for work on weekdays, Noh said in response to questions from prosecutor David Perry. That would have allowed him to see his three children on weekends following a possible divorce from his wife, according to Noh.

``Kissel also said he would be comfortable if his wife's boyfriend moved to Hong Kong,'' said Noh, referring to Michael del Priore, a US-based technician with whom Nancy Kissel was allegedly having an affair. Noh, Kissel's deputy at Merrill, said earlier the banker was prepared to give up half of his assets to see his children regularly.

The trial continues. BLOOMBERG

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香港经济日报 A
 1. 中建材转强 吼Call(24228)
香港经济日报 2011-01-27 投资理财, 018

  春节临近,内地建筑项目陆续停工,水泥需求进入淡季。商务部昨日表示,内地水泥价格连续第二周轻微回落,预料春节期间各地水泥消费量将继续下降,但目前企业库存处于较低水平,料水泥价格后期走势趋稳。

  瑞信上周发表报告指,尽管预期未来一至两个月,水泥价格会进一步回落,但水泥生产商的利润仍有上升空间,尤其是拥有较佳议价能力的地区,如长三角地区和中国南部,因此较看好中建材(03323)。

水泥需求料维持增长

  在西部大开发及中央大幅增加保障性住房建设背景下,内地水泥需求可望维持稳定的增长。多只水泥股目前处于高位整固阶段,中建材于去年10月创52周高位21.85元后,出现回吐,踏入1月后走势才见回勇,今个月月中更曾挑战21元,其后调整至50天线(18.33元)见支持。

  中建材昨日在成交配合下,抽升2.5%,收报19.46元,升穿10天线(19.14元)及20天线(19.28元),短期走势明显转强,轮友可于现水平买Call,先上望前高位21元,跌穿50天线止蚀。

  可以考虑中建材Call(24228),6月17日到期,行使价18.88元,溢价9.2%,实际槓桿4.8倍,引伸波幅44.1%。昨日成交金额(24228)有307.7万元,收报0.238元,组合不作买入部署,只建议于0.23元吸纳,目标上望0.3元,跌穿0.205元止蚀。

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 2. 中移动︰与fb商合作
香港经济日报 2011-01-27 金融要闻, A10

  【本报讯】在三网融合概念下,内地电讯科技业龙头如中移动(00941)、腾讯(00700)、联想(00992)等,纷纷与海外同业寻求合作机会,当中中移动更表示会跟facebook合作。

  中移动董事长王建宙出席达沃斯论坛时称,上月曾跟到访中国的facebook创办人朱克伯格(Mark Zuckerberg)会面,寻求合作机会,但却没有透露详情。

腾讯及日社交网组联盟

  成立于2004年的facebook已累积逾5亿活跃用户,本月刚完成新一轮的集资15亿美元,而其公司估值亦达500亿美元。中移动则为全球最多客户的电讯商,至去年底客户人数已达5.8亿户。

  至于另一家用户数逾5亿的腾讯,继日前宣布成立50亿元互联网投资基金后,昨日亦跟日本最大社交网站Gree合作。后者宣布与腾讯组成联盟,让其开发的手机游戏有望打入内地市场,惟正研究对Gree的盈利影响。

传联想伙NEC进军日本

  此外,内地媒体搜狐引述《日经新闻》称,联想和NEC将组成合资公司,经营NEC全部个人电脑的业务。联想将持有合资公司51%,并最快于周四公布协议。报道指,NEC个人电脑的市占率虽然于环球较少,只有1%,但于日本市场却有12%的市占率,有助联想开拓日本业务。

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 3. 政府青睐有加 中航科工看俏
香港经济日报 2011-01-27 投资理财, 012

  中国经济增长迅速,对飞机需求数量相当殷切。目前,中国政府锐意将中航科工(02357)打造成为中国飞机工业旗舰,发展前景相当俏丽。

基金增持者众

  现在,HAMON及DREYFUS两大基金均持有中航科工,而过去五日摩根大通、花旗集团、法国兴业及德意志都出现明显的净买入现象,预计其中长线的投资潜力可人,可博取五成至一倍的回报,而跌破3.5元止蚀。

  中航科工自2008年初开始全力转型至飞机制造及相关业务,打头炮便是向旗下A股上市公司之洪都航空增加资本。其后,公司先后向母公司收购旗下A股公司之中航光电的43.34%权益,成都凯天电子及兰州飞行控制全部权益等,各项业务都是加强其航空主业发展。

  踏入2011年度,母公司已经急不及待地向其展开注资行动,率先以7.68亿元人民币作价将旗下的天津航空全部权益注入中航科工,其中25%的代价将以现金形式支付,其余75%则以每股3.734港元作价,发行约1.82亿股新股支付。根据资料,天津航空主要从事于航空二次配电控制及防火装置等产品的科研、生产及销售。截至去年12月底止,其税后利润1.06亿元人民币,按年增34.18%。

业务垄断市场

  按目前业务计,中航科工是全中国航空制造业务的垄断者,主要航空产品包括各种类型的直升机、支线飞机、教练机、通用飞机、飞机零部件和航空机电产品。另外,公司与欧洲直升机公司、意大利阿古斯特公司、美国西科斯基公司及Embraer等,展开广泛的业务合作,加强公司航空发展能力。

  根据中航集团副总经理吴献东接受传媒采访时明确表示,母公司已定立明确目标,希望到2011年将1,500亿元(人民币.下同)资产注入旗下上市公司内,而到2013年将完成2,400亿元注资规模,而中航科工作为母公司飞机工业的重点棋子,料注资消息会陆续有来,可为股价带来刺激作用。

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 4. 发改委轰家乐福价格欺诈 年关违规重罚 剑指外资超市巨头
香港经济日报 2011-01-27 中国要闻, A18

  年关将至,中央紧盯物价、严打价格欺诈之际,在华外资超市却被揭发涉嫌价格欺诈,结果遭当局棒喝。国家发改委昨天点名批评外资零售巨头家乐福和沃尔玛等,存在虚构价格等欺诈行为。当局已责令整顿,对违规企业重罚,并警告若屡教不改将吊销执照。

加价后打折 平价招徕贵算帐

  已在华经营15年的法资零售巨企家乐福,近期遭内地传媒曝光涉嫌价格欺诈。昨天国家发改委在网站公布,经查证,确有一些城市的家乐福等超市存在虚构原价、低价招徕高价结算、不履行价格承诺、误导性价格标示等4种欺诈行为(见表)。

  发改委点名批评长春、上海、长沙、哈尔滨、昆明等多地家乐福虚构价格、恶意欺诈。如长春家乐福新民店,原价169元(人民币,下同)的「七匹狼男士时尚内衣」促销价50.7元,经调查,实际原价应为119元,涉故意抬价后打折扣欺诈行为。

手套标价6.9元 结帐实收21.9

  此外,由于一般民众在超市购物没有核对发票习惯,因此部分超市就在价钱牌标低价,但却在结帐时收高价。如长沙家乐福韶山路店销售一副男士手套,标价6.9元,实售21.9元,高出近3倍之多。

  还有超市则在促销广告上耍花样,或者在结帐时不以广告宣称的优惠价结算,甚至玩视觉游戏,将「138.0」元以大字体标示「13」,小字标示「8.0」,造成「13.80」元的错觉。同时,沈阳及重庆等地的沃尔玛分店,也遭曝光虚构价格行为。

揭沃尔玛部分分店 虚构价格

  对于有关外资超市的欺诈行为,发改委称,已经责成相关地方价格主管部门依法予以严肃处理,责令改正,没收违法所得,并处违法所得5倍罚款;如无法计算违法所得的,最高处以50万元的罚款。对性质严重、影响恶劣的,除经济处罚外,要依照相关法律,责令停业整顿,甚至吊销营业执照。

  内地通货膨胀不断恶化,民众怨声载道,春节前物价更成敏感话题,因此当局不敢怠慢。在以家乐福「祭旗」后,国家发改委又要求全国所有超市、百货等零售业者,要立即组织开展自查,认真核对所售商品是否存在标价和结算价格不一致、促销标示原价不真实、明码标价不规范问题。

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 5. 国产飞机立项 中航科工受惠
香港经济日报 2011-01-27 投资理财, 012

  国产大飞机被列入重大科技项目,在战略性新兴产业中,中央攻关决心强烈。港股受惠股份中航科工(02357)一枝独秀,母公司不断注资,力图将其打造成中国航空的旗舰。

  早在2006年,中央已将国产大飞机项目列入中长期攻关的重大科技项目,并设定国产大飞机2014年首飞,2016年交付航线使用的时间表。在去年将其划入战略性新兴产业,文中明确指出要在「十二五」期间:「重点发展以干支线飞机和通用飞机为主的航空设备,做大做强航空产业。」

航空产业要做大做强

  目前只有美国、俄罗斯和欧洲四国有能力制造大飞机,而国际市场被波音和空中客车两大寡头占领。中国国产大飞机项目于2007年立项,首个型号已正式命名为C919。大飞机制造涉及许多高端设备和高端技术,一架大飞机由300万至500万个零部件构成,产业链条长,牵涉广泛,对电子信息、材料、精密机械等行业拉动效应非常显著,被誉为「工业之花」。

国产飞机料按时出台

  整个「十一五」期间,单是民用航空工业产品产值已达467亿元,是「十五」期间的3.7倍。但截至去年10月的统计数据,国产飞机在中国所有民用航空飞机中占比不足1.1%,中央非常重视此项目,调动全国专家,现已完成大型客机的总体技术方案,料未来可按时间表顺利交付。

  论造价,大飞机系统设备占总造价的50%以上,其中发动机系统最为昂贵,占整体造价的25%或以上。大飞机研制难度高、周期长,现时国产大飞机在发动机技术和复合材料技术还无法实现100%「中国制造」,需向国外采购。

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最新国策:

  中国二套房首付由50%提高至60%,进一步调控地产市道,相信短期热钱仍对内房股抱观望态度。

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 6. 摩通增持5536万股工行
香港经济日报 2011-01-27 投资理财, 013

  摩根大通于1月21日增持工商银行(01398)5,536万股或0.07%,每股最高作价为5.98元,平均价为5.91元,总值3.27亿元,最新持股量增至5.01%。

  摩通对上两次买卖工行纪录为:于1月17日,以每股作价6元,减持1.25亿股;于1月13日,以每股作价6.05元,增持8,276万股。摩通是次以较低价翻兜工行,更令持股量再度增逾5%法定披露水平。

  工行早前公布,斥资1.4亿美元收购东亚银行(00023)的美国分行80%权益,将打入美国市场,有助其业务国际化,策略性意义较大。

  瑞信于月初维持工行「跑赢大市」评级,目标价由7.82元,上调至8.06元。工行昨收5.86元,无升跌。

 启示指数︰★★★

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T.Rowe Price减持0.16%中建材

  基金管理公司T.Rowe Price于1月21日减持中国建材(03323)223万股或0.16%,每股最高作价为18.911元,而平均价则为18.841元,总值4,202万元,最新持股量降至6.89%。

  翻查港交所纪录,是次减持中国建材为T.Rowe Price由去年至今,首次减持中国建材纪录。早前股权变动资料则显示,摩根大通曾于1月19日,以每股作价19.31元,增持中国建材354万股或0.25%,而最新持股量增至20.01%。

  瑞信近日报告料水泥价格于未来两月续回软,首选华润水泥(01313)及中国建材,指中国建材利润仍有上升的空间,因拥有较佳议价能力之地区。

  瑞信于月初曾给予中国建材「跑赢大市」评级,目标价为23.5元。中国建材昨收19.46元,升2.5%。

 启示指数︰★★

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德银减持霸王至6.82%

  德意志银行于1月19日减持霸王集团(01338)549万股或0.19%,每股平均作价为2.643元,涉及资金约1,451万元,最新持股量跌至6.82%。

  德银曾于去年11月8日,以每股作价3.668元,减持1,027万股霸王,是次以较低价再度减持。

  大摩日前将霸王目标价下调至2.1元,维持「减持」评级;美银美林更指霸王最差情况未过,目标价下调至1.15元,评级「跑输大市」。

  霸王昨收2.29元,跌2.5%。

 启示指数︰★

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 7. 国策A股升 H股料跟上
香港经济日报 2011-01-27 投资理财, 004,005

A股昨日反弹1%,上证升31点或1.2%,收2708点(表1);沪深300指数升39点或1.4%,收2978点。沪市成交673亿元人民币,深市成交463亿元人民币,成交较前日略为缩减。A股上升令港股回稳,恒指昨日升54点或0.2%,收23843点。

值得留意的,是不少同时发行H股的A股,如广船(00317,沪600685)、昆机(00300,沪600806)等均显著上升(表2),其中广船A股升10%,昆机A股升6.1%。

资金紧张略见纾缓

昨日A股回升,主要是内地传媒指出,央行过去两周多管齐下,紧急向市场净投放近7,000亿元资金。受到央行连续大规模投放资金的影响,昨天银行间紧张的资金情况略见缓解,1个月上海银行同业拆息由前日8.13厘,略为回落至昨日的8.1258厘。

内地传媒指,从今日起至春节前,公开市场还有1,240亿资金投放。随着流动性逐步注入,资金利率有望步入下行通道。

内地拆息有望回落

花旗认为,农历新年即将到来,导致流动性不足,加上首次公开招股(IPO)频发,抽高拆息。不过,春节效应短暂,加上IPO发行会减慢,故拆息料可回落。

综观昨日升幅较大的AH股,以国策股,尤其是高端设备行业为主。由于A股有望回稳,率先回升的国策A股,其相关H股有望成为投资焦点。

事实上,部分A股股价带着H股走,A股升,意味H股可能跟升,相关H股可留意。

策略而言,可留意有国策支持、A股破顶或走势佳、H股超卖、估值吸引的H股。

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4只H股趁机追入

A股昨日回升,部分有国策支持的A股升幅显著,相关H股可留意,股份包括广船、东气、中铁及铁建。以下是个别股份分析︰

广船受惠经济复甦

广船A股昨日显著上升,升至10%的涨停板水平,收报29.06元人民币;H股午后亦升3.5%,收17元。

股价走势上,A股昨日率先创52周新高,成交异动,升至2,803万股。翻查纪录,广船A股股价走在H股之前,例如A股去年11月5日见顶,H股要待11月9日才见顶。广船A股率先破顶,H股亦有望跟随。

另A股其他船舶股亦大升,如中船股份(沪600072)升9%,中国船舶(沪600150)升6.2%,反映内地资金追捧船舶股。

基本因素而言,广船受惠经济周期复甦,定单上升。广船早前表示,中海发展(01138)向其订购8艘油轮,每艘载重4.8万吨,作价19亿元人民币;该批油轮预期在2012年陆续交付。中银国际看好广船,给予目标价22元。

东气手头定单充裕

东方电气H股走势亦有跟随A股的情况,以近半年的走势比较,A股由去年8月初已开始缓缓上升,H股到8月底才见底回升。其后,A股及H股一起反覆上升;但之后A股早于10月底见顶,而H股于11月初才见顶回落。之后,H股跌势较A股急,可见A股相对较强势,所以,相信A股一旦转强,可带领H股回升。东方电气A股昨天大幅反弹并突破阻力,估计H股亦可回升。

东方电气基本因素不俗,料可支持股价回升。交银国际表示,东方电气手头定单足够未来两至三年消化,可保证未来盈利增长。另外,2010年核电业务收入约40亿元人民币,占总营业收入约10%;现时手头定单达1,400亿元人民币,其中核电比重占28%,未来两年核电设备有望维持倍增速度,是利润增长重要亮点。核电设备比重增,也可提升整体毛利率,有望由2010年21%升至2011年25%,从而带动盈利增长。交银国际维持东方电气「买入」评级及目标价48元。

中铁铁建PE偏低

至于两只基建股中铁及铁建,A股都有领先H股的走势,如两股的A股都于去年10月初见顶,H股则于10月底才见顶。之后,A股于11月底见底,H股数天后才见底回升。至今A股及H股的浪底都持续提升,形成上升轨,而近日A股更是明显转强,于上周一触及上升轨便明显反弹,昨天升势持续,但H股近日才接近或触及上升轨,估计跟随A股反弹的机会很大。

中铁及铁建亦有基本因素的支持,另外两股都有大行看好。摩根士丹利表示,内地铁路基建投资在2010年增加18%,至7,090亿元,较官方去年初定下的7,000亿元高出1.3%。当局为2011年定下的基建投资目标仍是7,000亿元,大摩相信,实质数字将再次较高,并预期未来数年内地很可能提升基建投资目标。

大摩表示,中铁及铁建现价相等于2011年预测市盈率10倍,较历史平均及环球同业为低;而且,因目前手头累积很多合约,预期2011至12年经常性收入复合年增长率分别为20%及24%;重申两股「增持」评级。

摩根大通表示,对内地基建行业持正面看法,料「十二五」铁路基建开支会上升,以及铁道部中长期铁路长远营运目标会提升。于基建股之中,摩通最看好中铁及铁建,两股评级同为「增持」;中铁目标价由6.4元,升至8.5元;铁建目标价则由12.2元,升至14.5元。

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话你知︰AH股差价何处寻

一间公司于中港两地上市,股份价值相同,但股价却有可能不同。

要查找AH股股价差异,可参阅本刊的「H股与A股股价比较」(今日刊P.22)。

若要查找更详细的资料,或要按差价、股价变幅或股票编号排序,可参阅经济通网页。网址:www.etnet.com.hk/www/tc/stocks/ah.php

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贴市新料

˙内地A股昨日回稳,并上升1%,部分同时发行H股的A股昨日显著上扬。

˙受惠国策的A股率先上升,相关H股可望跟随。

˙精选股份,可留意广船(00317)、东气(01072)、中铁(00390)及铁建(01186)。

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 8. 煤炭进口去年增长31%
香港经济日报 2011-01-27 投资理财, 011

  国家发改委公布,去年全年煤炭进口1.65亿吨,同比增长30.99%;出口1,903万吨,同比下降15.03%;净进口1.46亿吨,同比增加4,237万吨。

  解读︰煤炭为内地重要能源,约占内地能源消耗总量之7成。可是,由于内地煤炭产量不足以应付其庞大需求,故需进口大量煤炭以满足需求。不过,记录显示,过去一年国际煤价却持续上涨。

  展望今年,可从供求两方面预示煤炭市场的走势。

  供应方面,去年年底澳洲因暴雨而引发水灾,并导致煤炭供应受到影响,国际煤价亦因而攀升。短期而言,由于当地仍需要时间清理灾后情况,料国际煤价仍将在高位徘徊,亦因此对内地煤价形成一定支持。

  需求方面,煤炭主要应用在火电、水泥、钢铁和化工方面。

  火电方面,有分析相信,内地今年上半年之通胀情况将比下半年为高。在此基础下推论,由于内地电价受政策所限,故在通胀情况未有明显改善之情形下,电价难以上调。因此,电企将持续缺乏增加发电量的诱因,火电用煤的需求将难有太大改善。

  水泥方面,内地计划今年建设1,000万套保障性住房,按年增长72%,这将对煤炭需求产生拉动作用。

  钢铁方面,内地有报道引述权威人士称,钢铁行业「十二五」规划初稿中,鼓励兼併重组和优化产业布局的主线仍将延续,而淘汰落后产能和节能减排标准将有所提高。「十二五」期间,国内排名前10位钢铁企业的产能占全国产能的比例达到60%。淘汰落后产能,正好给予大型钢企难得的整合机会。

兗州煤业可留意

  由于整合将使钢铁企业的市场份额增加,其在合约煤方面的议价能力必定提高,而这对煤企而言绝非好事。因此,煤炭股方面,不妨注意一些现货销售比例较高的煤企。当中,以2009年计算,兗州煤业(01171)之现货煤销售比达77%,故较能规避在议价下合约煤毛利率被挤压的影响。

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 9. 华尔街酬金胜往年 半数满意
香港经济日报 2011-01-27 国际金融, A19

  据英国金融就业网站eFinancialCareers.com调查,华尔街过半金融从业员的去年酬金高于09年,半数员工对奖金感满意。调查亦显示,19%受访者奖金减少,25%受访者奖金持平,另有部分受访者称没有奖金。

  高盛、大摩及摩通共有124,556名员工,2010年3家投行员工拿到薪金、奖金及福利平均为330,212美元(约257万港元),较09年少2.7%。

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10. 买入落后蓝筹Call
香港经济日报 2011-01-27 投资理财, 019

  蓝筹股表现可谓强弱分明。截至周三止一个月计,强势股如腾讯控股(00700)、和记黄埔(00013)及长江实业(00001),股价均升逾一成,其中腾讯升幅更达两成。

  若预期新年前大市望反弹,现应留意落后的重磅蓝筹股。截至周三止一个月计,落后蓝筹股如建设银行(00939)仅升0.4%,而中国移动(00941)及中国人寿(02628)更分别下跌1.2%及2.7%。不少资金率先留意上述落后蓝筹认购证。如中移动Call在过去十个交易日累计有逾2亿元资金流入,而同期国寿Call及建行Call,亦分别录得逾6,200万元及5,100万元资金流入。

  若目前考虑入市追落后,应留意街货量较低的认购证,以免当相关资产价格出现变动时,导致轮价未必能跟随理论变幅。

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11. 港股反弹 蓝筹美午市稳
香港经济日报 2011-01-27 要闻, A06

  期指明日结算前,转仓昨主导大市。借助内地股市反弹,期指一度升上24000点水平,恒生指数收报23843点,升54点或0.23%。外资交易员指市场整体乐观。

  大市成交减弱被视为利淡因素,如申银万国便指,A股市场昨日参与度不高,料超跌反弹的高度只是有限。不过,滙丰量计研究部统计发现,自1991年起,恒指一般而言在农历新年前两个交易日开始上升,升势持续至新春假后第17个交易日,相信今年亦然。

美银美林:可趁气氛过淡低吸

  美银美林为所谓「一月效应」给予新注释,中国式「一月效应」正形成,像2008年和2010年,今年开始亦适逢北京矢言勒紧信贷供应,银行与监管机构博弈,令市场变得情绪化。

  不过,美银美林安抚投资者,无论信贷如何收紧,以今年贷款增长目标15%计,仍可支撑增长,每次市场气氛过于悲观,都是低吸机会。

  美资经纪行BGC证券衍生产品交易部主管李敦成表示,恒指连续两日上试24000点高位无力而还,短期后市仍未摆脱弱势,不排除农历年假后会再回落,下试23000点以至22600点支持。

  1月及2月期指分别录得约11.4万及5.6万份合约成交。期指昨大部分时间相对恒指维持高水,1月期指收报23858,高水14点,2月期指高水22点。

  重磅股滙丰(00005)、中移动(00941)受压,内地银行传加贷款息,内银股表现参差。

  渣打银行财富管理策略师梁振辉昨称,因内地政策风险、及部分资金借美国经济及企业数据复甦而流回成熟市场,港股第一季风险仍高于回报,表现势受压。他估计,人民银行上半年会加息三次,投资者可考虑于首两次加息后,负面消息淡化始入市,而港股有望于第二季企业开始公布业绩后展升浪。

  本港时间今晨3时30分,滙丰在美国挂牌的预托证券(ADR)折算报86.5港元,较本港收市价86元高0.05元;中移动ADR折算报76.75港元,较本港收市价76.3元高0.45元;中国人寿(02628)ADR折算报30.85港元,较本港收市价30.9元低0.05元。

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宏桥今招股 铝股全面分析

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12. 控通胀 先遏政府投资热情
香港经济日报 2011-01-27 国是港事, A32

  2011年,是内地全面抗通胀的时代,遏制通胀成为内地今年的首要任务。

  尽管2010年全年居民消费价格指数(CPI)比09年上涨3.3%,但是,通胀率呈逐季加速上升,在各项行政措施下,去年第四季的CPI仍从第三季度的3.5%攀升至4.7%。不少机构预期,受春节和冰雪恶劣天气的影响,2011年一季度CPI可能攀升至5%以上,2011年的通胀形势存在着巨大压力。

  2011年的第一个月,受南冻北旱恶劣天气影响,蔬菜价格大幅上涨,小麦期货价格节节攀升,物价上升压力增大。

松财政紧货币 存矛盾

  值得注意的是,此轮通胀,已不仅仅是由食品价格上涨推动,非食品价格也在成本上涨的推动下上涨,在劳动力工资上涨和进口资源材料价格上涨带动下,物价上涨将从上游产品,向下游产品传导。

  这意味着,2011年将进入「高增长、高通胀」的时代,因此,央行必须尽早收紧货币,防止经济增长过热和防止通胀失控。

  紧缩货币是遏制通胀的重要手段。目前,新兴市场经济体都采取加息等手段,来抑制通胀和资产泡沫。内地在过去一年,已6次上调存款准备金率,并两次加息。然而,在「宽松」(积极)的财政政策下,央行的货币政策无法收紧,遏制通胀的操作难度增大。

上海拆息抽升 央行欲遏放贷

  在宽松的财政政策下,政府投资项目中,三分之一的资金来自银行贷款。而在银行与地方政府合作的「银政合作」模式下,商业银行为了争夺业务而宽松放贷,支持地方基建和经济增长。在这种背景下,尽管央行在收紧流动性,但央行的货币发行不太可能回归正常的水平,楼价和通胀也难以回落。

  目前,地方融资平台规模可能已超过8万亿元(人民币,下同),如果不放贷,地方政府不少在建的项目可能出现「烂尾」,最终会变成银行的坏帐。

  2010年,内地的人民币新增贷款7.95万亿元,比年初的目标超出4,000亿元,这种放贷冲动延续到2011年。尽管央行已经收紧货币政策,上调存款准备金率和加息,但在今年1月份的前20天,就传出银行新增信贷超过一万亿元,这迫使货币政策当局「急煞车」,在本月剩下的10天不准放贷。

  在商业银行这种疯狂的信贷投放下,大量资金流入资产和商品市场,助推楼价和物价上涨。

  近日,上海银行间同业拆借利率飈涨,1月26日,上海银行间同业拆借隔日和一星期的利率高达7.76%和7.87%,2个星期的拆借利率更升至8.229%,反映银行体系短期资金异常紧张。

  央行日前再次进行逆回购释放资金,给出的16日和21日两个期限,利率分别高达7.30%和7.67%,表明央行希望通过价格手段,对元旦过后就像脱韁野马一样疯狂的放贷银行,作出惩罚,同时不希望商业银行将逆回购资金用于商业运营有关的业务,以免进一步推高楼市泡沫和商品价格上涨。

GDP只需8至9% 通胀始能回落

  然而,在宽松的财政政策、热情高涨的地方政府投资、资本市场和信托融资的影响下,央行货币政策的操作空间愈来愈小,难度愈来愈大了。

  中国人民银行在今年的年度工作会议上提出,保持合理的社会融资规模。这显示银根收紧已不足以控制流动性,也难以遏制通胀,因此,需要在社会整个层面来调控融资的规模。

  宽松的财政政策与稳健的货币政策出现了矛盾,造成货币当局要继续超发货币,以支持政府项目的投资和信贷。

  内地要控制通胀,就必须控制政府的投资,以及遏制地方政府的投资热情,让GDP增长稳定在8至9%左右的水平。过高的GDP增长率,货币供应将无法回归正常,通胀率难以回落。

十二五遇换届 地方野心难遏

  今年是内地「十二五」规划(2011至2015年)开局之年,加上今年到明年,各级政府又要换届,各个省都准备在这个五年里大干一场,有些省份更提出了未来5年GDP翻一番的目标,这些都可能导致内地经济过热。

  过去两年,如果内地的GDP增长能保持在8至9%的水平,而非去年10.3%,内地就不需要投放那么多的货币和信贷,楼价也就不会失控疯涨,物价也不会攀升那么快了。

  今年,内地将进入全面抗通胀的时代,在宽松的财政政策、地方政府的投资热情和GDP崇拜症下,货币难以紧缩,通胀前景不容乐观。内地要遏制通胀,就必须适度减少政府项目投资,以及适度降低经济增长率,以防止过快过热和遏制。

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13. 外企被指傲慢 当局杀鸡儆猴
香港经济日报 2011-01-27 中国要闻, A18

  当局今次高调严打家乐福,令人感意外,因为这些曾享受「超国民待遇」的外资企业,已习惯被当作「上宾」,以至傲慢成性。而发改委一改往日温柔,实际意在杀鸡儆猴,警示外资,营造更加公平的商业环境。

改革开放30年 外企多特权

  改革开放初期,为吸引外资推动发展,国家在税收、经营、管理等多个环节对外企发放特权,外企变成「被宠坏的孩子」。随着近年产业转型需求,当局对零售业更大开方便之门,甚至被指近乎「殖民化」的地步。

  08年9月12日,商务部发布文件,外资零售店审批权将下放到省一级商务部门。这使地方政府纷向外商抛出橄榄枝,大力吸引外资项目落户,以此给当地带来引资政绩和税收,令外资超商急速扩张。这不仅挤占本土零售商发展空间,更不断爆出外资以特权盘剥供货商及工人的蛮横霸行。

扶持本土企业 促外资收敛

  然而,随着内地经济不断发展,社会对公平的诉求不断增加,当局正在试图扭转这一失衡局面,以营造更和谐的经营环境,并帮助本土企业做大做强,从而向外扩张。因此,当本已状况不断的家乐福再次出现不良纪录,当局便不再掩护或淡化,而是高调狠批,目的就是警告其他外企收敛行为,因为他们在华的特权时代已开始落幕。

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发改委轰家乐福价格欺诈 年关违规重罚 剑指外资超市巨头

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14. 马钢Call(27438)现价吸纳
香港经济日报 2011-01-27 投资理财, 017

  商务部昨日发布预报表示,受贸易商采购增加及建筑企业工程备货影响,市场交易量上升,钢材价格连续第三周走高。另外中钢协表示,钢价在春节假期后仍有望上升,因保障房和铁路建设将导致钢材需求增加,今年城市地铁、可再生能源和水利设施建设也将迎来建设高峰。

马钢料先挑战4.65元

  由于铁矿石价格上涨,现货钢价今年将持续上升,现已触及每吨4,847元人民币,是自08年9月26日以来最高水平。钢铁股板块昨日逆市造好,其中马钢(00323)升5.5%最为亮丽,升势似有余未尽,可跟进相关Call。

  瑞信表示,去年下半年钢铁价格及股价表现落后,配合基调持续改善及今年上半年盈利利好势头,以及火车轮业务不断改善,可支持马钢盈利,将其目标价由5元调高至6元,评级由「中性」升至「跑赢大市」。

  马钢昨日一举升穿10天、20天及50天线,收报4.41元,料先挑战月中高位4.65元,突破可上试去年11月高位4.95元。

  看好马钢可留意较贴价的Call(27438),行使价4.68元,6月13日到期,现价引伸波幅约51%,溢价16%,实际槓桿5倍,街货量2%。(27438)昨市收报0.425元,现价吸纳,上望0.54元,下一目标是0.7元,跌穿0.37元止蚀。

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15. 摩通:澳博最坏情况 仍值11元
香港经济日报 2011-01-27 要闻, A03

  澳博控股(00880)大股东澳娱出现股权变动,公司股价3天内累跌8.8%。证券商继续力撑澳博,摩根大通指,即使在最坏情况,澳博股价在11元具强力支持。

复牌曾挫8.8% 收报13.12元

  澳博昨复牌后曾急挫8.8%,低见12.58元,赌王何鸿燊现身发表声明,令澳博跌幅修窄,收市报13.12元,跌4.9%。新濠国际(00200)跌2.5%,收报5.52元,信德集团(00242)则微升0.6%,收报4.98元。

  自何鸿燊家族周一爆发纠纷至今,3间公司市值合共蒸发75.8亿元。

  摩通指,由现有管理层继续独立地营运澳博,对澳娱股东亦是最好利益。该行将澳博资产净值分为三部分估值,首先是现金净值每股为2元,第二是为由第三者营运赌场每股值5元,第三是自家营运赌场,每股值7元。后者估值当中,来自中场及贵宾业务分别占每股4.2元及2.8元。

贵宾业务 风险大不明朗

  摩通相信,一旦澳博管理层有变动,最大风险及不明朗因素是贵宾业务,因为这是关系主导的生意。该行保守地估计,即使将自营贵宾业务的资产净值降至零,其他核心业务仍值11元。

  摩通又指,濠赌股现价约相等13倍预测市盈率(以现金经营盈利,EBITDA计),以澳博过去股价较同行折让一半计,每股价值6.5倍市盈率,亦相等于每股11元。

  该行相信澳博于此水平有强力支持。花旗亦维持对澳博「买入」投资评级,目标价16.5元,建议投资者可趁低吸纳。

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不同版本涌现 谁具法律效力

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16. 英响滞胀警号 顽疾手尾长
香港经济日报 2011-01-27 国际金融, A19

  英国周三公布的第四季经济出乎意料地按季倒退0.5%,令市场大为错愕,事关只要今季再现倒退,已可初步断定英国重新陷入衰退;更令人担心的,是英国通胀已远超央行目标,高通胀而低增长(见下图),正是滞胀的征象,属最难救的经济顽疾。

  虽然政府归咎经济转差,是百年一遇的严寒天气所致,但除了建筑业之外,很多行业如商业及金融服务,其实较少受天气影响,况且去年12月同时也是1963年以来最乾爽的一月,可抵销不少冷冻天气的负面影响。

  数据公布后,英镑迅即回落,显示市场并不认为,这是天气的特殊性因素使然;再者,官方亦承认,即使不计天气因素,经济亦不会出现正增长。

经济乏增长 加息声音大

  照计经济仍然疲弱,政府理应筹谋刺激经济,延迟加息或紧缩开支,甚至加推量化宽松。不过,昨日披露的1月货币政策委员会会议纪录中显示,9名委员中有两名要求本月立即加息,显示英伦银行内的鹰派势力抬头。

  他们无视经济活力欠奉仍要求加息,是因为英国的通胀即将突破4%,为央行目标2%的1倍。通胀这样高,一来因为英镑弱,也因为商品价格节节上升;另一项因素,则是英国政府月初开始将销售税由17.5%加至20%,势将反映在2011年的物价上,刺激通胀进一步上升。

失业高企 政府进退维谷

  在正常情况下,英伦银行早已经要加息,但当失业率仍高达8%,250万失业大军仍然等饭开,加上政府正落实大削开支,公务员更要面对两年冻薪,应可纾缓通胀压力,拖延加息步伐。不过,政府在低增长下仍削开支,又可能令经济疲不能兴。

  在滞胀环境下,政府就是这样进退维谷,像要同时救两个火头却只得一条水喉。英国是否身陷滞胀而不能自拔,仍要观察多1、2个月,但市场对行将宣布经济增长数据的美国,乐观口吻也不其然审慎起来。

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17. 加息预期增 英镑有反弹
香港经济日报 2011-01-27 投资理财, 038

  前日英国公布去年第四季GDP按季收缩,令市场大失所望,触发英镑惨遭狂沽后。昨日英镑又因加息预期重燃而显著反弹,惟未能收复前日失地。

  英伦银行昨日公布的会议纪录显示,其中两位成员认为通胀升温的势头将会持续,对通胀预期构成重大风险,认为需要立即加息。议息纪录公布后,英镑兑美元反覆回升至1.5891。除了英国外,亚洲地区亦有加息压力。继印度央行前日加息25点子后,昨日泰国央行亦表示,该行曾在1月12日的会议上讨论加息50点子的可能。

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欧元1.375建淡仓

  亨达集团助理总经理罗明立指出,欧元走势继续反覆靠稳,周二虽然一度回落至1.3560附近,但主要是受英镑急跌所拖累。欧洲金融稳定机制拍卖50亿债券,反应相当热烈,继续有助增加投资者信心。

  执笔时,欧元已升至1.37以上,相信短线反覆向好的情况将持续,但于1.3750以上开始尝试部署造淡。

  今晨美国联储局将公布议息结果,相信利率将维持不变,关键是局方如何评估经济及通胀前景,这将影响美元的短期表现。建议短线于1.3750沽欧元,止蚀1.3850,目标1.3520。

---------------------------------

英镑候1.582沽空

  福汇亚洲高级客户经理林伟俊表示,周三英国只有12月BBA房屋抵押贷款许可数据公布,估计短期任何数据均会成为沽出英镑的一个借口。主因是英国去年第四季度GDP实在未如人意,估计英镑短线沽压未止。目前稍为正面的消息是,奥巴马的国情咨文中明言要冻结部分支出,以削减赤字4,000亿美元。

  然而,美国减赤的金额实未能为庞大的赤字带来曙光,相信美国似做戏以满足国会而非真的打算减赤,故成效仍有待观察。技术上,英镑于20天线稍见支持,但相信不太可能守稳,故有机会可待英镑反弹至高位1.5820沽出,目标1.5500,止蚀1.5850。

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澳元窄幅上落

  中信银行国际财资部外滙交易主管梁志华表示,周二澳元整体维持在0.988至1算附近上落。受欧元上扬及美国企业业绩带动,澳元最高升至0.9993美元,其后逐步回软至0.9950水平收市。

  周三亚洲市,澳元走势维持窄幅上落,最高曾见过1.0001水平。美国联储局将于周三晚公布议息结果,市场估计会维持利率不变。

  但市场焦点放在会后声明上,关注联储局会否提早结束6,000亿美元的量化宽松政策。建议投资者继续观望,未宜高追,待澳元回落再考虑入市。

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纽元0.773阻力强大

  海通国际外滙及金业董事施沧海表示,欧洲债务危机纾缓,使市场风险情绪稍为减退,欧元回升带动非美货币走升。纽元兑美元至截稿前,亦升至0.77水平。

  周四凌晨美国联邦储备局及新西兰央行将公布议息结果,而声明措词将成为后市走势关键。现时预料新西兰央行仍将对加息保持观望态度。

  日线图上,纽元由上年11月、12月及今年1月连成的趋势线,将成短期纽元阻力。估计0.7730为较强大的阻力。

  建议投资者可候该位沽出纽元,并以0.7560为目标,惟升破0.78宜先行止蚀。

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加元淡仓续持有

  BMI邦盟汇骏基金管理高级副总裁陈健豪指出,加拿大国家统计局公布12月CPI年率上升2.4%,除低于预期外,亦处于央行订下的3%目标范围,反映短期加拿大未有需要迫切加息。此外,近期商品如黄金价格及油价下跌,亦对加元构成一定压力,预期美元兑加元最终仍将反覆回升至1.02水平左右。

  即使这样,本栏中线看好加元的观点未改。因为美国经济若出现复甦,亦有利加拿大经济及出口。同时,加国央行加息时间表,亦比美联储局为早。此外,加拿大财政稳健及商品资源丰富,相信仍将比欧洲及英国等受财政问题困扰的国家更具吸引力。  技术上,美元支持位仍在0.9850,短线将要留意美联储局会后声明,尤其是有4位投票委员进行轮替,令声明更添变数。不过,维持原先建议,已持有加元淡仓者可续持有,跌破0.9840先行止蚀,目标1.02。

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18. 哈萨克铜商 拟港筹逾40亿
香港经济日报 2011-01-27 金融要闻, A10

  愈来愈多外资企业,挑选香港作为筹集资金的地方。外电报道,已于英国上市、全球十大铜生产商的哈萨克斯坦Kazakhmys,正计划于香港作第二上市,集资约5亿至6亿美元(39亿至46.8亿港元)。消息指,公司仍未向港交所(00388)递交上市申请。

宏桥毛利率38.3% 急升6倍

  此外,宏桥集团(新上市编号:01378)顺延一日后,今日正式招股,招股价7.1至9.9元,市盈率9.89至13.8倍,入场费约4,999元。

  因成本控制得宜及价格回升,去年头9个月,该公司的毛利率由2009年同期的5.6%升至38.3%。行政总裁张波称,有把握今年仍可维持该毛利率。

  至于Kazakhmys,该公司的网页指其拥有15个铜矿,并足以作20年开发之用。除了铜业为其核心业务外,Kazakhmys亦拥有石油、黄金及电力等业务。根据其公布的2010年上半年业绩显示,盈利为6.96亿美元,较2009年同期大升逾1倍半。花旗和中金为保荐人。

商品巨头嘉能可 拟港英上市

  另外,消息指持有俄铝(00486)8.65%股权的商品贸易巨头嘉能可(Glencore),亦已递交上市申请。预料最快4至5月于本港及伦敦同时上市,全球集资额达到100亿美元,而香港则最少占25亿美元。保荐人为摩根士丹利及花旗,帐簿管理人则为瑞信。

  消息指,瑞士资金的嘉能可为欧洲市场熟悉,同时其业务很大部分也由亚洲市场推动。选择于香港上市是因为想贴近客户,同时相信亚洲的基金公司也会对此投资十分有兴趣。虽然消息指,嘉能可仍未落实任何基础投资者,但据彭博报道,该公司于2009年底发行了总额达22亿美元的可换股债券,并可兑换一旦公司上市后的股票,投资者包括新加坡GIC、贝莱德和紫金矿业(02899)。

  另外,今日上市的中慧国际(新上市编号:01143),昨录得暗盘成交1.23元,较招股价1.2元微升2.5%。

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19. 新春催谷消费 旺旺短线看涨
香港经济日报 2011-01-27 投资理财, 010

  A股反弹推动中资股造好,国企指数扭转连跌四日走势。但农历新年将至,将会催谷内地消费市场,料对中国旺旺(00151)等消费股有利,加上旺旺盈利料可保持双位数增长下,未来一个月或有炒作空间。

  内地股市结束两日跌市后,昨日回升超过1%,支撑中资股反弹,国企指数昨日尾市虽回落,但全日升87点或0.7%,收12649点,成交额133亿元,超过六成主板H股随大市回升,升势全面。而红筹指数则升15点或0.4%,收4211点,成交额约51亿元,可惜中国移动(00941)逆市下跌,否则反弹幅度可以更大。

  国指能否扭转近期弱势,仍要睇指数能否重越滙聚中的10天、20天和50天线,即要升越12810点(50天线所在),最好是升破及企稳13000点,后市才能好转。另一乐观走势是指数守12000点,在12000点至13000点横行并消化沽压,再等利好消息才向上突破。笔者最不想见到是国指跌穿12000点,届时便要下试11000点。

内房股短线受困

  至于国务院昨晚要求进一步调控房地产市场,要求地方政府要确定价格控制目标并向社会公布,二套房房贷首期也提升至六成。尽管市场早预期中央会推出调控措施,但短线仍会困扰内房股一段时间。惟内房股确实已调整颇长时间,笔者反而希望包括房产税等其他调控施措尽快推出,届时便可消除内房股不明朗因素。

  其实,新春黄金周往往可以刺激房地产销情,也会带动消费市场畅旺,消费股可炒作一番。但消费股踏入今年,表现麻麻,希望农历年可以为消费股冲喜一番,如康师傅(00322)、统一中国(00220)和笔者爱股旺旺。

旺旺今年盈利可升27%

  美林和苏皇早前不约而同发表报告,前者调低旺旺2010年至2012年盈利预测2%至5%不等,至3.7亿、4.7亿和5.8亿美元,后者则调低2010年和2011年盈利7%和4%至3.6亿和4.7亿美元,但调高2012年盈利1%至5.97亿美元。预测数字显示,外资行对旺旺的盈利预测颇为接近,而去年盈利料可增长15%至18%,今年盈利则可升27%,反映旺旺盈利持续增长势头不变。

  当然,大行调低旺旺盈利预测,是因为去年成本显著上升,如糖价升超过六成,米价升超过20%。但管理层对证券商表示,有信心去年三大主要业务米果、乳品及饮料、休閒食品等增长可分别达30%、30%和18%。笔者相信旺旺去年底完成销售渠道重组后,可以加快今年销售增长,加上奶粉和糖价去年11月和12月开始回落,以及旺旺部分产品又在去年下半年加价,相关利好因素可望在2011年业绩中释放出来。除了有中线投资价值外,旺旺在3月8日业绩公布前,或有短线炒作空间。

  作者电邮:yeesiuman@hket.com

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20. 通胀挥之不去 吼资产折让股
香港经济日报 2011-01-27 投资理财, 008

  港滙强番两日,暂纾港股沽压,但市场缺乏催化剂,暂时窄幅争持为主,恒指23000至23400左右为关键支持,支持应不俗。恒指昨收报23843,升54点,大市成交额682亿元。

  美股周二晚先跌后反弹,开始在相对高位反覆。

  知名投资人麦嘉华(Marc Faber)刚预测,全球股市即将进行修正,美股跌幅会小于新兴市场,标准普尔500指数将下跌10%,麦嘉华之前时有对美股作预测,时准时不准,只宜作参考参考。不过,美股过去几个月已累计一定升幅,高位升势放缓的机会也很大,奥巴马刚发表的国情咨文报告对美股推升力料有限。

内地高铁有望打入美国

  奥巴马今次国情咨文重点聚焦国内经济发展,关注就业问题,增加美国竞争力。这是奥巴马上台后第二次发表国情咨文。以去年相比,美国经济复甦仍缺乏方向感,失业率偏高,因此奥巴马在经济方面加大着墨。有分析指出,奥巴马把「就业机会」放在首要位置,目标是直指2012年的总统大选,因为「就业」将毫无疑问地成为2012大选年民主、共和两党的中心辩题。国情咨文重点提到高速铁路、高速无线网络,并指韩国的互联网建设已经超过美国。俄罗斯等欧洲国家对公路和铁路的建设投入已经超过美国,中国也正在发展更快的火车和更新机场,可见将来这两方面是日后重点作为改善美国失业率问题的药引。加上,中国最近准备竞标美国加利福尼亚州的高铁建设项目,对打开内地高铁设备公司的出口业相信有大启示性,将会是机遇,具想像空间。南车时代(03898)及中国南车(01766)若有急回,都可以留意吓低吸机会。

SHIBOR短期涨势属技术性

  讲开中资股,昨日A股反弹但有多少弹力好睇短期之拆息表现。为控制银行放贷冲动,调控通胀预期,央行年初紧缩力度明显加大。加上,农历年将至,银行体系流动性压力特别紧张,令短期上海同业拆息(SHIBOR)劲抽升,1个月拆息逾8厘。人行春节前后可能加息,春节后亦有可能上调存款准备金率,都可能是引发SHIBOR向上急抽原因。息率高涨,A股难以大反弹。花旗就指,SHIBOR不会在高位「站」很久,因为春节效应短暂,但短期SHIBOR料会继续波动。

  按商务部发布资料显示,上周(1月17日至23日)商务部重点监测的食用农产品和生产资料价格继续上扬,农产品价格已连续五周保持涨势,更有认为价格的上涨已开始向非食品领域传递,来自多家券商的预测,今年首季度CPI仍将高位运行,1月份CPI可能将重新超过5%。调控通胀,内地加息理所当然,事实上,印度今周又公布加息,为近10个月以来第7次,扑通胀之火压力仍大。

嘉国资产净值折让达63%

  全球大势均面对通胀压力,物业资产的保值力较强,故去年第四季始,已见投资者积极向资产折让大的二、三线股份埋手,先有金朝阳(00878)批货与基金,股价其后抽升,后有香港兴业(00480)被野村唱好再令市场留意这被遗忘很久的股份,嘉华国际(00173)也蠢蠢欲动。除非资金流出新兴市场,引致资产泡沫爆破,不然,这类二、三线资产丰厚股有可能在兔年被市场垂青。当中,要密切留意新世界发展(00017),一般大炒到新世界系,多少预示地产发展股就到顶。现在来看,暂未见有此现象。

  回说嘉华国际,有花旗出报告上调其目标价(由4.76元升至6.07元),指其资产净值折让达63%,目标升幅达93%,属小型股的首选。引述花旗指出,目前嘉国的市值仅80亿元左右,被市场严重低估,因其在香港及上海物业项目总价值已达240亿元人民币,兼且具质素的投资性物业达35亿元,同时持有银河娱乐(00027)约4.13%股权,相信随着推售物业,将可体现其应有的价值。以花旗估计,嘉国于2010年至2012年每股盈利预测各为0.1、0.45及1.56元,按年跌74%、升3.75倍、升2.44倍,盈利高增长,现价相当预测2011年PE 7倍,加上,资产值丰厚,确然抵买。花旗报告一出,嘉国即飞升6.9%,收报3.41元,一度高见3.51元。参照花旗意见,笔者上望目标的3.6元可能保守点,建议可升近目标套利一半,再等挑战密集阻力高位约4.5元。未有货的,建议等农历年后或内地加息明朗化才进场。

效狡「兔」 宜灵活应变

  总括而言,将近脱「虎」海,踏入「兔」年,寄语大家每当入市要预两手准备,不要以为一定赚,就算所谓「基金股」,班大孖沙都可以齐缩沙不玩,长揸有痛苦。且见东岳(00189)股价碌到无影,昨进一步下跌7.7%,收报4.19元。综观去年底,大行唱好的多,唱淡的少,恒指很大机会在兔年被对冲大户舞上舞落。以往一般被一面倒看好的股份,或一面倒被看淡,都容易出现逆市发展,究竟恒指向上冲高先,还是先插到晕后才试顶,又甚至不到顶,有待日后细心跟踪。现况,恒指守稳23000的话,暂无大跌之虞。

  电邮︰idalam@hket.com

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21. 拆息料微软 港股炒反弹
香港经济日报 2011-01-27 投资理财, 003

  人行经过连日努力,终于令到内地拆息稳定下来,虽然这并不代表当局收水的力度有所放松,但却释出不再进一步收紧的意思。内地股市昨日有所反弹,惟仍受制于下跌通道。港股昨日亦回升,等候昨晚联储局议息后声明。今日是期指转仓高峰日,预料恒指波幅将会扩大。

  1个月上海银行同业拆息(图1)连升7个交易日后,终于略为回软,昨日收报8.1258厘,较周二微跌0.0042厘。回软的幅度虽然轻微,但意义却重大。至少,市场相信,当1个月拆息急升至8厘以上后,央行不会再加码从紧。在此形势下,内地股市,以至本港内银股,有机会出现技术性反弹。

  上综指(图2)昨日回升31点至2708,能够企回2700关以上,总算露出了反弹的曙光,但要真正回升,必须突破现时约位于2800区下跌通道顶部,方能令人感到安心。在此之前,估计转向横行,等新年过后,才定方向。

  港元滙价(图3)周二及周三均有所回升,可喜可贺,但说到底,下周将放长假,长假前资金是否肯持续流入香港,仍然有待观察。不才认为,美元兑港元要跌至7.7700以下,才能确认资金回流香港。

  恒指(图4)昨午一度反弹约200点,高见23976,大有试闯24000点心理关口的气势,可惜3时半过后,短线获利盘令升幅收窄至只有54点,收报23843,成交仍然偏低,只有682亿余元。值得高兴,并可对港股后市倾向乐观看好的一个因素,是1个月期香港银行同业拆息,昨日跌至0.12464厘,较周二跌了0.01607厘,是自去年5月初以来最低水平,反映香港银行体系水头充足。

  美滙指数(图5)自跌破多头颈线后,持续缓跌,昨日一度低见77.75.美滙短期去向,虽然会受到昨晚公布的议息声明影响,不过,向跌的趋势料可持续。虽然联储局中反对零息及QE的声音有所增加,但仍不足以扭转由伯南克为首的鸽派。由于美国仍在炒复甦,道指(图6)大张小回的格局,暂时不会改变。

  真正影响到美国零息及QE政策的最主要因素,是通胀预期升温。目前美国通胀仍然偏低,联储局仍有颇大的空间进行刺激;相反,英国通胀升温但GDP回软,央行可能要加息遏通胀,其副作用则是经济将会受到更大的打击。

  论短炒,今日应有一博的价值,可惜临近长期,投资者未必有胆持重仓放长假。对冲大鳄会否借机在长假前,推高大市,然后在长假后获利回吐?如果港股今年上半年只能牛皮横行的话,则相信大鳄会把握任何一次炒波幅的机会。

  电邮︰oscarlee@hket.com

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22. 宏桥今招股 铝股全面分析
香港经济日报 2011-01-27 投资理财, 014,015

有机会成为今年首季集资额最大的新股──中国宏桥(01378)今天招股。该公司从事生产液态铝的业务,处于产业链的中游位置,业务与大众熟悉的中国铝业(02600)截然不同。投资者拣选铝业股前,必先了解该企业从事的是上、中或下游业务,以判断其投资前景及风险。

铝业股分上中下游

铝产品制造商可分为上中下游,它们的主要产品分别是氧化铝、液态铝合金和铝型材(见图1)。

氧化铝作为原材料,在熔炼炉中经过电解还原作用后,制成液态电解铝,后者与铁和铜等多种化学元素结合,形成液态铝合金。

液态铝合金是整个铝业的中间产品,在付运过程中须储存于特制容器内,温度需维持于摄氏750至900度。液态铝合金送到下游客户后,可以直接注入模具,生产下游的铝型材产品,如门窗、地铁车身等。

同时,液态铝合金亦可冷却加工成铝合金锭,让自备重新加热产能的下游客户使用。

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中游︰宏桥致力控制成本

根据金属行业研究机构安泰科(Antaike),按铝材设计年总产能计算,宏桥(01378)是中国第5大铝生产商,在私营生产商中则排行第2。宏桥主要生产液态铝合金和铝合金锭,两者在09年的销售额,分别占公司总收入的61.5%和37.5%。

液态铝合金和铝合金锭是透过电解氧化铝加工制成,因此氧化铝和电力是宏桥的主要生产成本。

在降低氧化铝成本方面,宏桥与其独家氧化铝供应商「高新铝电」签订一项有效期至2013年的氧化铝供应协议,若宏桥自行提货、年采购量超过100万吨,以及维持存放按金4亿元人民币,便可享采购折扣。

在去年首9个月,宏桥的氧化铝平均采购价格为每吨1,590元(人民币.下同),比中国氧化铝平均现货价每吨2,326元,便宜逾30%。

在降低电力成本方面,宏桥拥有自己的发电厂,由于其生产电力的单位成本远低于采购电价,加上发电厂生产电力比例的上升,使宏桥去年首9个月的能源平均成本,由从前的逾5,000元减至3,178元。

透过控制氧化铝及电力成本,加上液态铝合金和铝合金锭的平均售价上升(见表1),宏桥持续经营业务的毛利率由09年的约10.4%提升至去年首9个月的38.3%。

上市改善负债比率

宏桥毛利率有显著改善,惟公司09年的负债比率(总负债÷总资产×100%)达72%,属偏高水平。假设宏桥以招股价上限9.9港元上市,可集资172亿港元,则可令负债比率大幅改善至32%。

宏桥估计,公司2011年每股盈利约为0.72港元,2011年预测市盈率介乎9.89倍和13.79倍之间。

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上游︰中铝受惠铝价回升

内地最大的氧化铝和电解铝的龙头生产商中国铝业(02600)上周发盈喜,预期去年度综合净利润将扭亏为盈,主要原因是产品的市场价格回升、产销量增加,以及有效降低成本。

有利集团再度加价

作为上游企业,中铝去年曾数次公布,主要产品之一的氧化铝成功加价,为业绩扭亏为盈的主因。展望未来,麦格理看好铝价走势,认为内地铝市场目前的供求状况虽然正由短缺迈向平衡,但供求平衡至少要到第二季才出现,铝价可望升至2,650美元至2,700美元,有利集团再度加价,提高盈利。

由于中铝盈利对铝价走势十分敏感,如铝价轻微变动1%,其盈利可变动7%至8%,故铝价微升绝对利好中铝的盈利增长。

不过,中铝仍面对不少风险,如集团另一主要产品电解铝存在产能过剩的问题,如汽车销售亦有所下降,将限制了铝材的需求增长。

滙丰表示,透过原材料整合(电煤及铝土矿)及进军铁矿石业务,有利提升中铝的毛利率。麦格理则预期,2010年及2011年中铝盈利估计分别达17亿及91亿元人民币。

据彭博综合分析员预测,2011年预测PE为22.8倍。滙丰建议增持中铝,指股价整固后,估值见吸引力,目标价维持8.5元。

俄铝生产成本最低

另外,摩根士丹利指出,另一间从事上游业务的铝业股──俄铝(00486),集团的2010至14年产量复合增长率达7.3%,为全球铝生产商之冠,且是成本最低的铝生产商,也可受惠铝价攀升。

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下游︰麦达斯具高铁概念

麦达斯(01021)及中国忠旺(01333)均从事铝业产业鍊的下游行业,主要制造铝型材,而铝型材亦可分为工业用及建筑用,工业用铝型材多用于运输、机械及设备等,而建筑用铝型材则多用于门窗、栏桿、桥樑等。由于高铁及地铁车身的材料均是铝型材,随着高铁大力发展,工业用铝型材需求亦会增加,故前景获看好。

高铁制造商为主要客户

麦达斯的主要客户来自于中国高铁列车制造商──中国南车(01766)及中国北车。在2009年,来自两车的收益共占整体收益的47.9%,而在生产高铁及地下铁车身的铝型材市场中,集团在内地的市占率达66%。在2010年第三季业绩公布中显示,来自铁路业务的收益更达80.7%,故摩通认为「十二五」规划的高铁投资额,将成股价推动力。

另外,野村亦指出,麦达斯目前未完成的合约有15亿元人民币,自参观麦达斯位于吉林的厂房后,该行对集团生产铝型材的前景感到乐观,建议买入及维持目标价在6.4元不变。

忠旺受累美拟征反补贴关税

至于同处于下游行业的忠旺,前景则不甚乐观。于本月21日,该集团发出盈警,主要原因是去年8月美国做出反补贴初裁,拟对集团出口美国的部分铝型材产品处以反补贴关税(税率为137.65%),令其出口大受打击(占去年6月底整体业务的41.3%)。同时,反倾销初裁亦于去年10月出台,对集团部分产品处以税率为59.31%的反倾销关税。忠旺去年上半年毛利约为31亿元人民币,但去年7月至9月的毛利仅得约8亿。

滙丰指出,忠旺出口业务的边际利润较高,但受到美国实施反补贴关税影响,令出口美国的业务萎缩,该行将忠旺2010年及2011年的盈利预测,分别大幅下调至29.93亿元及25.01亿元人民币。

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总结:上游股份较吸引

在铝业的产业链中,信达国际研究部董事彭伟新较看好上游行业。他表示,上游行业有提价能力,例如中铝便分别于去年8月中及11月中,两次调升氧化铝的现货价,加幅分别为3.8%及5.5%,加上氧化铝的需求有上升空间,增加上游行业的提价能力。

相反,上游行业加价,令处于中下游行业的原材料成本增加,企业盈利受压。以处于中游行业的宏桥为例,原材料及电力占总成本约9成,电力供应紧张或原材料成本增加,均会导致企业盈利受损。

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23. 长江生命 蓄势待发
香港经济日报 2011-01-27 投资理财, 012

  长江生命科技(00775)本周一突然出现强烈异动讯号,股价一度跳升至60仙水平,当日的总成交股数较之前一日激增10.93倍,上升动力强劲。昨日,收市微升至59仙,主动扫货买盘占全日总成交量高达80.1%,全日平均交易成本为每股58仙,醒目资金暗手扫货的手影明显,背后意味着股价蓄势展开上升攻势,向上目标为78仙(注:按其2元上市价,其后以每股65仙进行2供1,平均持货成本每股1.55元,然后打个五折计),跌破53仙止蚀。

美林密密扫货

  追踪盘路发现,美林是长江生命科技昨日的主力买家,其以头牌经纪买入了8次,其间并没有出现沽货记录。若结合主动扫货买盘、经纪介入买卖次数、过去成交量分析,相信此股具颇高投机价值。现在其每股资产净值51仙,市帐率是健康护理行业之中最吸引的。

  公司主营保健护理用品,当中包括在加拿大、美国及澳洲的三家保健产品公司,以及在澳洲的两家环境业务公司。上半年,公司营业额为13.26亿元,盈利为4,864万元,当中保健业务的营业额为9.27亿元,环境业务占3.96亿元。下半年度,其出售瑞年(02010)股份占2.03亿元,全年盈利料近3亿,比上年度增长60%以上。

  最近长江生命科技以2.6亿元收购澳上市公司,旗下于澳洲及新西兰拥有20个葡萄园(包括两间酿酒厂)。

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24. 外滙基金扩另类投资 谷回报
香港经济日报 2011-01-27 金融要闻, A10

  尽管外滙基金规模按年增长9.1%,至2010年年底的23,457亿元,但投资收益则下降26.6%至790亿元(见表)。为了提升外滙基金的回报,金管局总裁陈德霖表示,基金已进行投资多元化,现时已开展了几种类别的投资,包括新兴巿场的股票和债券、私募基金及海外的投资物业。

获QFII资格 投资内地股债

  与此同时,金管局亦计划投资人民币资产。他表示,人民银行已批准了金管局参与内地银行间债券巿场的资格及额度,为150亿元人民币,亦会以合格境外机构投资者(QFII),投资内地交易所上市的股票和债券。

赚790亿跌27% 债券占逾半

  外滙基金在2010年录得790亿元的投资收益,按年减少26.6%。其中债券的收益为421亿元,港股组合的收益为116亿元,外国股票组合的收益为270亿元,其他投资项目的收益为14亿元,以上的投资收益足以抵销在外滙投资方面所录得的31亿元亏损。

  外滙基金在2008年底成立投资控股公司——Eight Finance Investment Company Limited(以下简称EFIC),注入28.02亿元资金。

  虽然金管局未肯透露EFIC的投资回报,不过,金管局副总裁余伟文表示,投资的主要是私募基金及海外投资物业。而金管局旗下的海外基金投资控股附属公司资产的价值,亦由2009年的28亿元,增加至目前的147亿元。他表示,金管局未来仍会增加上述两项投资,对EFIC所注入的资金亦会增加。

确认买私募基金海外商厦

  在资产多元化方面,陈德霖表示,金管局在资产多元化方面的工作是按部就班地进行。至于2009年年报中所披露的股票占75%、债券占25%的投资组合基准,会否因为多元化而作出改变,余伟文表示,若是投资在新兴市场的股票及债券,仍会计入上述的比例组合中,至于私募基金及海外投资物业,则会独立划分出来,相信这个基准暂时不会有大变动。

  对于今年外滙基金的表现,陈德霖相信会和去年「差不多」,仍需要步步为营,小心翼翼的进行,欧美经济仍未恢复及新兴经济体系采取的一些调控和紧缩政策和措施,都会为今年的宏观金融环境和投资巿场带来颇大的不稳定性和不确定性。

相关文章:

资金涌港 迫购低回报美债

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25. 资金流入恒指牛证
香港经济日报 2011-01-27 投资理财, 019

  恒指穿梭于20天线,后市料在23800点附近徘徊。

  观察过去一周资金流向,约1.11亿元资金净流入恒指牛证;熊证则录得约7,800万元净流出金额,反映大市失守24000点后,较多资金流入牛证博反弹。

  股份窝轮资金流则转静,投资者趁正股表现偏强时减持获利,其中滙丰(0005)、和黄(00013)及港交所(00388)等相关认购证,分别录得约5,900万元、1,070万元和2,270万元资金净流出。近期走势偏弱的中移动(00941)和国寿(02628)则有追捧。成交较活跃的中移动认购证,行使价介乎82至86元之间,多于年中到期,实际槓桿逾10倍。至于国寿认购证,成交额集中在行使价约32至34元的中长期价外轮,实际槓桿约7至9倍。

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26. 国寿值博率高 Call(27690)可追入
香港经济日报 2011-01-27 投资理财, 016

  期指临近结算,昨日大市走势颇为反覆,恒指一度低见23662点,跌至前浪升幅2041点(由22393升至24434)的0.382倍水平(约23650点)获支持,在期指带动下曾倒升近200点。不过24000关前受阻,尾市升幅大为收窄,险守20天线之上收市。

  昨日升市靠长和系及腾讯(00700)的拉动。另外中资金融股回稳亦为大市带来支持,其中较重磅的内银股建行(00939)表现最佳,回升1.6%,重上7元收市。

  内险股也有喘稳迹象,收市近乎全线上升,其中国寿(02628)在大市破底下并未跌穿上日低位30.55元,收市报30.9元,微升5仙。国寿日前被国家审计署指其母公司存在若干违规问题,需要加以纠正和改进。股价跌近30元关口,现水平渐见吸引,低位见买盘积极,估计再跌空间有限,而去年8月低位29.35元应不会再见,现价博反弹值博率高。

  Call可留意略价外的(27690),行使价32.88元,6月初到期,换股比率10兑1,现价引伸波幅约30%,溢价10%,实际槓桿达11倍,街货量7%。(27690)周二跌至上市低位0.103元,昨日没有再跌穿该位,收市报0.109元,现价可考虑吸纳,目标先看0.14元,升穿再上望0.19元,跌穿9仙止蚀。

牛证(66801)亦可考虑

  避免时间值耗损可考虑收回价28.8元的牛证(66801),6月20日到期,现时槓桿亦有10倍,没有溢价,街货量约12%,昨收报0.31元,可尝试于0.3元左右吸纳,上望正股32元至33元,跌穿30.5元先行止蚀。

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市况直击︰滙丰和黄中移轮活跃

  美股周二先跌后反弹,道指收市收复大部分失地,纳指及标普500指数更轻微上升。但港股早段反弹乏力,或受期指结算因素影响,恒指一度再跌127点至23662点,即月期指跌至23653点。中午过后突然发力上升,低位回升超过200点,早市收市倒升105点。

  午后升势持续,期指一度突破24000点,但恒指只高见23976点,尾市升幅收窄,收报23843点,上升54点,结束连续4日跌市。期指大部分已转仓,下月期指成交近5.6万张,即月期指成交高达11.4万张,收市高水15点。国企指数收报12649点,上升87点。大市成交682亿元,较上日增加55亿元。

  权证成交占大市比重由28.6%,仍属较高水平。窝轮及牛熊证成交分别为135.8亿及59.4亿元,恒指窝轮及牛熊证分别占19.8%及98.3%,Call/Put及牛/熊比例分别为45︰55及59︰41。近期滙丰、和黄及中移动相关窝轮每日成交均十分活跃,就连相关牛熊证成交也见日渐增多,开始受散户注意。

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27. 梁爱诗:俄企来港 先了解法规
香港经济日报 2011-01-27 金融要闻, A10

  港交所(00388)迎来首间俄罗斯企业俄铝(00486)上市,今日正式踏入1周年。俄铝独立非执董梁爱诗接受专访时表示,计划在港上市的俄企应尽量了解和配合本港的市场法规,并融入本港文化,以加强投资者对企业的认识。

俄铝上市风雨 「好的考验」

  俄铝去年上市时面对的风风雨雨,包括证监会要求定下较高的入场费、只准向专业投资者配售,以及须以逾千页的招股章程,相信不少投资者仍记忆犹新。梁爱诗忆述时表示:「这是一个很好的考验,如果我们过不到证监会和交易所,也自然过不到投资者了。」

  被问到本港监管是否过于严苛,影响俄企来港上市的意慾时,她表示:「初时是有些要求,但看到我们成绩好,有表现时,监管机构也愿意放宽,让我们拆细(每手股数)。交易所条件公开,规则清楚,只要跟足就不会出事。不像一些市场,上市简单,但上市后可能动辄犯规。」

  梁爱诗透露,为加强对本港法规的认识,以及与本港投资者有更多沟通,俄铝在过去一年作出了不少努力,除了规定每年股东大会必须在港举行之外,亦聘请了本港的法律顾问,又准备在港成立常设办公室。

公司有要求 独董职务不轻松

  担任俄铝独立非执董近1年,梁爱诗笑言,由于公司「希望样样都做得仔细点」,她的工作不如想像中轻松:「其他上市公司可能每年只开4次会,但俄铝每年开足10次会,当中5次是面对面,我也飞了3次塞浦路斯开会,每次都由朝开到晚;其他则是做电话会议,还有很多书面议决,很多文件要看。」

  事实上,虽然俄铝曾一度跌穿招股价,但在完成集资并重组债务后,股价亦拾级而上(见图),梁爱诗认为,这足以反映投资者对公司业务前景的看法。

  中国与俄罗斯无论在地理还是经贸上都关系密切,梁爱诗认为,双方合作发展的势头良好,而本港市场自由而且国际化,无外滙管制之余,监管制度十分稳定,将可发挥其长处,吸引更多俄企进驻。

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28. 美续复甦 QE2如期年中完结 储局︰家庭开支虽升 仍受高失业困扰
香港经济日报 2011-01-27 要闻, A06

  美国联邦储备局本港时间今晨3时15分结束今年首次议息会议,宣布维持联邦基金利率在0至0.25厘区间不变,一如市场预期,低息率政策仍会维持一段长时间,而6,000亿美元购买政府债券计划将如期在今年6月底结束。

  储局指,虽然经济复甦仍然持续,但幅度不足(insufficient)以令劳工市场情况出现重大改善。声明又指,去年年底家庭开支上升,不过仍受高失业率、个人收入温和上升、楼价下跌及信贷紧缩困扰。虽然商品价格上升,料长期通胀预期仍然维持稳定,而潜在通胀持续下滑。

  一向被外界视为鹰派的达拉斯联储银行总裁费希尔(Richard Fisher)及费城联储银行总裁普罗索(Charles Plosser)在今次会议未有投反对票。

新屋销售劲 道指曾升破万二

  市场料欧元区加息快于美国,令欧元升兑1.3722美元两月高位,美滙指数跌至77.748的10周低位,商品价格反弹,连同美国新屋销售升至8个月高位,令午市美元反弹,道指早段两年半来首次重越12000点关口。

  道指继上日微跌3点后,早段曾升39点、至12017点,08年6月以来首次重上12000点水平之上,本港今晨3时30分(收市前1小时30分),升14点,报11991点;债券价格下跌,10年美债孳息从3.32厘升上3.43厘。

估欧央行年内加息 遏通胀

  上月新屋销售升17.5%、至年率32.9万间,胜预期29.9万间,主因受西部销售大升近72%带动;新屋中间价按年升8.5%、至24.15万美元的08年4月以来高位,尽管按年销售仍跌7.6%,令全年销售历来最差,较09年跌14.2%、至约32.1万间,但投资者憧憬楼市开始露出复甦信息,加上若干巨企业绩佳,与美国总统奥巴马发表国情咨文,建议降低企业税,均利好股市。

  储局今晨宣布维持利率及吸纳6,000亿美元国债计划不变,以确保经济踏上稳健复甦台阶,反观欧洲央行发出忧虑通胀升温的警告,令市场谈论央行或于今年稍后加息。

  交易商指欧元在1.374美元有技术阻力,但较大阻力为去年11月22日所造的1.3786美元高位。瑞银(UBS)货币策略师Manuel Oliveri表示,欧元大部分升势似由投机者推动,并无重大结构性资金流入欧元区,意味欧元可随时受不利消息影响,大幅回落。

  美元兑其他货币先跌后稳,低兑81.98日圆。上日受末季经济意外收缩打击的英镑,亦升见1.5906美元,升0.6%;商品价格回升,惠及澳元高兑99.98美仙,美元回落至低见0.9937加元。

  纽约期油反弹至高见87.6美元,现货金午市倒升0.3%至1,335美元;农产品持续强势,美国小麦升1.1%、至每浦式耳8.48美元29月高位,巴黎小麦升1.2%、至每吨265.75欧元新高。

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29. 频传卖盘 「港台美组合」终跑出
香港经济日报 2011-01-27 要闻, A02

  随着「六叔」邵逸夫年逾百岁高龄,加上无线吸引力甚大,故近年不时传出邵氏有意放盘,每年亦传出新买家,当中包括本地富豪李泽楷、李家杰、而内地名人富豪如杨国强、郭广昌、马云的名字亦曾被扯上,但最终跑出却包括台湾富豪,可谓「爆冷」。

  由于无线电视占据本港免费电视市场多年,影响力不小,加上公司营运有稳定现金流,更有潜力开拓内地市场,故对不少有意成为传媒大亨的富豪而言,接手邵氏的投资机会自然不容忽视。

  事实上,德银上周亦看好无线的广告收入,在调升广告费的推动下,可录得高单位数的增长,并将目标价调高至48.84元,维持买入评级。

碧桂园杨国强 入主几近成事

  早于06年就有传盈科(00008)主席李泽楷有意入主无线,到08年亦传出不同私募基金如凯雷、贝恩等皆有意投资。但要数近年最接近成事的,却为碧桂园(02007)主席杨国强。08年6月,市场消息指,杨国强曾提出以125亿元收购邵氏,更有恒地(00012)主席李兆基愿意提供借贷让其成事之说;但其后10月,由于杨未能筹措资金,六叔卖盘亦未能成事。当时,电视广播的股价亦于期内大上大落,幅度达21%。

  虽然买家愈传愈多,但邵氏卖盘一事未有着落,有指邵逸夫及方逸华的叫价高企不下,令洽谈一直未能谈拢。

李家杰去年曾洽购股份

  至09年邵氏获大股东私有化成功,卖盘传闻稍歇,但至去年9月,电视广播就公告称,邵氏股权获洽购。恒地其后证实,公司副主席李家杰以个人身份洽购,跟恒地无关。当时,亦有传出郭广昌、上海文广集团及阿里巴巴创办人马云,有意组团竞投。

  而无线对手亚视,近年股权亦多有变动。07年,查懋声入主亚视后不久,到09年引入旺旺(00151)蔡衍明,但去年初却就另一内地投资者王征加盟频生摩擦。去年9月,昌兴(00803)主席黄炳均却突成为亚视最大股东。

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壳王再染指传媒 长实称不涉收购

王永庆千金王雪红 创HTC撼iPhone

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30. 机构投资者看好后市
香港经济日报 2011-01-27 投资理财, 011

  内地股市连跌多日,踏入农历年前最后一周交易日的春节行情,有一个好开始,沪深两市回升超过1%,但成交额却降至1,100多亿元人民币。不过,内地部分银行上调贷款利率,加上央票持续停发,更为农历年后加息升温。

  沪深300指数昨日升39点或1.4%,收2978点;上证综合指数升31点或1.2%,收2708点,沪市成交额只有670亿元人民币。而深证成分指数升153点或1.3%,收11599点,深市成交额只有460亿元人民币。

  不过,内地盛传1月新增贷款可达1.2万亿元人民币,一些银行已暂停放贷,因为传言人民银行要求各银行1月贷款不能超过全年目标的12%水平,故部分银行要大幅上调贷款利率,冀控制过度放贷。

  至于央行接连停发央票,中金公司认为近日进行的300亿元国库债券招标利率也较上期升50个百分点,反映市场对资金的需求仍殷切,也预示着新春前后作为下一个加息的重要时间窗口的机会进一步加大,或会令短期市场流动性趋于悲观。

银行股或跑输大市

  不管如何,A股昨日反弹,除非能升越50天线(沪深300在3132点、上证在2822点、深成指在12344点),否则调整仍未结束。而中国基金公司公布2010年四季度资产管理规模数据,股票型基金和混合型基金中可投资资产中的股票仓位,分别从三季度末的83%和73%,上升至86%和75%,接近2006年以来的高位,似乎反映机构投资者对后市相对有信心。但基金却进一步减持银行股,小心银行股今年上半年表现或跑输大市。

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31. 陈国强为首财团入主TVB 伙台湾女首富等 传作价近百亿
香港经济日报 2011-01-27 要闻, A02

扰攘多年,无线电视创办人「六叔」邵逸夫所持的电视广播(00511,TVB)控股权终于易手。该公司晚上宣布,董事局获主要股东邵氏兄弟通知,昨日收市后,邵氏兄弟(下称邵氏)的股东与由「壳王」陈国强为首、「台湾女首富」王雪红及私募基金Providence Equity Partners(下称PEP)组成之财团签订协议,把邵氏卖盘,当中包括电视广播26%权益或1.14亿股,预计出售将于今年3月31前完成。

向邵氏购电视广播26%股权

通告并无披露交易作价,而电视广播亦不用停牌,预料今天股价势必波动。以昨日电视广播收市价45.9元计,26%的电视广播股权市值约50.7亿元。但由于邵氏兄弟除电视广播股权外,仍有其他如清水湾地皮资产,有传收购价约96亿元。

至于现时拥有电视广播6.23%(2,729万股)的邵氏基金(香港),将于售股完成或之前,出售部分股权予独立第三者。

上述两项交易后,邵氏基金(香港)、电视广播副主席及董事总经理方逸华(持股115万股或约0.26%权益)、投资财团、陈国强、王雪红及PEP,将直接及间接合共持有电视广播不多于30%权益。

电视广播昨表示,王雪红、陈国强及PEP的行政总裁,都会被推选入电视广播董事局,而邵逸夫仍会保持主席职位。

值得留意是,虽然邵氏正式卖盘,但由于未有单一投资者持有多于30%的全面收购触发点,故新买家并不需要向其他小股东提全购。

据悉,今次无线股权变动,事先并无与中方打招呼;而王雪红与方逸华相熟,而王雪红的父亲台塑企业董事长王永庆,与邵家也有交情。

邵氏09年私有化除牌后,摩根士丹利去年就指其主要资产,除了电视广播的26%股权,还包括清水湾地皮。邵氏08年年报指,就指其一幅清水湾用地拟重建,换地申请亦已获地区地政会议批准。

该地皮的估值一向未有公开。摩根士丹利指,假设电视广播占邵氏价值的四分之三,及卖盘价为90亿港元,则意味电视广播价值约250亿元(较昨日市值溢价约28%),市盈率为21倍,跟亚洲其他电视台的估值界乎20至25倍接近。

广管局未收股权变动申请

不过,广管局表示,至今未收到所述有关电视广播的股权变动的申请。广管局称,作为本地免费电视节目服务持牌机构,电视广播有责任遵守《广播条例》和牌照条款的要求,若有任何股权结构变动,须根据牌照条款向广管局作出申请。

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32. 美股首季佳 台股长线俏
香港经济日报 2011-01-27 投资理财, 040

  ˙美国近日公布的经济数据,显示经济增长胜预期。有专家认为,美国股市将于第一季表现向好,但升势未必能持续至下半年。

  ˙现时亚洲股市进入整固周期,但专家认为亚洲股市长远仍可看好,当中北亚地区将胜东南亚,而台湾则最被看好。

  美国近日公布数据,显示经济增长胜预期,亦推动美股上升。同时,去年表现较佳之亚洲股市却进入整固期。有专家认为,美股会于今年首季造好,但长线来说,仍以亚洲股市上升空间较大,并预期北亚地区将跑赢南亚。

市场低估美经济状况

  美国总统奥巴马日前发表《国情咨文》,建议冻结国内5年预算,预期可令未来10年赤字减少约4,000亿美元;此外,建议透过投资于教育、科技及基础建设,并减低现时高于9%的失业率,刺激美国经济增长。

  渣打财富管理投资策略师梁振辉认为,美国总统奥巴马为了争取竞选连任,将会推出利好经济之措施,而根据历史经验,美股一般会于总统的第3年任期中表现较佳。加上现时市场仍然低估美国经济状况,例如失业率虽然仍处于高位,但相信已在改善中。另一方面,美国企业近期公布业绩,相信有关消息会继续刺激美股上升。

  然而,梁振辉认为,今年首季过后,美股未必能继续维持稳健升势。他解释,当市场对美国经济增长预期已成习惯后,其后有关经济的利好消息对美股推动作用不大。同时,当亚洲股市已完成整固,而美国经济增长又不及亚洲新兴市场升势凌厉,美股便会缺乏动力。

  美股被看好的同时,于去年表现突出的亚洲新兴市场却正进入整固期。苏格兰皇家顾资银行环球投资服务亚洲投资策略主管韦立民指出,现时印尼、泰国、菲律宾等南亚地区股市之估值,已高于历史平均水平,加上通胀率高企,将会令亚洲地区经济增长放缓,故预期上述地区股市之升幅不如去年大。

亚洲股市短期整固

  梁振辉亦指出,东南亚股市已于去年大幅上升,故此未来3个月亚洲股市将踏入整固阶段。印尼、菲律宾、泰国等东南亚股市,在过去3星期一度下跌约8至10%。

  虽然如此,梁振辉指出,亚洲股市于短期整固后,将重拾动力回复升势,故仍看好未来12个月亚洲股市之表现,并认为北亚地区将跑赢东南亚地区。

台股受惠中美经济增长

  亚洲地区当中,韦立民指出,北亚地区股市仍低于历史平均水平,未来1年亚洲股市的增长,将由去年的南亚转移向北亚地区如南韩、台湾及中国。

  在北亚地区中,梁振辉最看好台湾股市。他指出,台湾股市于去年已经跑出,股市升幅约1成,如将台币升值幅度计算在内,总回报更达2成。

  他认为于未来1年,台湾市场将同时受惠于中国及美国之经济增长。两岸经济合作框架协议(ECFA),以及发展中的内地旅客台湾自由行,将令台湾受惠于中国经济发展。同时,美国经济复甦,亦会令台湾科技企业受惠。他亦预期台币于来年之升值幅度比人民币大,到年底时,美元兑台币料达28.1水平。

  巴克莱财富亦看好鸿海(2317TW)、华硕(2357TW)以及宏达电(2498TW)等台湾科技股。

  另外,面对发展潜力大但估值过高的亚洲市场,巴克莱财富董事总经理及首席投资总裁兼研究、经济及策略部主管Aaron Gurwitz建议在这情况下,投资者可投资在已发展国家上市,同时受惠于亚洲经济增长的企业股份。如半导体、太阳能、机械、金属、矿业以及洁净科技等行业。此策略可让投资者以较低价买入受惠于亚洲发展之股票。

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33. 黄金避险退潮 认沽证增4倍 交易员看淡后市 恐触发「大冲洗」
香港经济日报 2011-01-27 国际金融, A19

  环球经济复甦趋于稳健,令黄金避险作用减退,黄金投资需求明显下降;另行使价1,250美元的黄金,认沽期权合约张数较12月初增近4倍,反映交易员看淡后市,恐来个「大冲洗」。

  据彭博社数据,黄金相关交易所买卖产品(ETP)持有实金量在周二单日减少1.5%,至2,043吨,减幅为逾两年之最。若与去年12月20日最高纪录2,114吨相比,则减3.4%。去年欧债危机爆发,加上美国推出第二轮量化宽松政策(QE2),令黄金投资需求激增,10种黄金相关交易所买卖产品所持实金量大增17%。

金价本月跌7% 昨低见1330

  黄金延续长达10年大牛市,去年12月初升至纪录新高每盎斯1,431美元。但随着美国经济靠稳及欧债危机缓和,黄金表现失色,今年以来已累跌7%,周二更低见3个月低位1,322美元,昨报约1,330美元。

  白银亦受金价拖累,今年初高见每盎斯31.25美元后,周二低见两个月低位26.57美元,昨报约27美元。

  渣打在每周报告预期,黄金、白银料会进一步疲弱,因为经济数据强劲,已改善环球经济前景,令投资者毋须增持金、银以对冲信贷风险、事件风险及货币弱势。

  彭博社在1月20至24日期间访问该社千位用户,逾半数用户认为金市出现泡沫。有受访基金经理认为,黄金欠缺基本价值,不能产生现金流,而股神巴菲特(Warren Buffett)去年也有此看法。

麦嘉华:长期低息 贵金属仍俏

  不过,末日博士麦嘉华(Marc Faber)认为,多国负利率政策令黄金成为最具价值货币,故仍看好黄金等贵金属价值。Seabreeze Partners总裁Doug Kass则持相反意见,认为美国的量化宽松政策或快将完结,而全球其他央行则已加息并限制信贷,将有利纾缓通胀,故预测黄金是表现最差资产类别之一。

  高盛(Goldman Sachs)近日发表报告,旗下分析员Jeffrey Currie写道,鑑于美国经济复甦已转趋稳健,黄金在商品的领导地位已失,将由石油取而代之,为09年中以来首次。

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34. 中区警署石牆树 马会倡移除
香港经济日报 2011-01-27 港闻, A22

  中区警署建筑群保育活化方案尘埃落定,但警署近奥卑利街一棵20年石牆细叶榕,捱得过08年台风吹袭仍豎立不倒,却避不过被斩的命运,马会建议移除该树。

专家:特色之一 应保留

  树木专家和区议员均认为石牆树与建筑物混为一体,是警署的特色之一,质疑政府和马会是否有心保育。

  负责中区警署建筑群活化计划的马会,向环保署提交环评报告。项目范围内共有11棵树,当中4棵25至70年的大树,在08年年6月台风「风神」吹袭香港挂8号风球期间,被吹毁死亡。其余7棵树,仅6棵建议保留,一棵位处奥卑利街石牆之间生长的20岁石牆细叶榕,则基于现场和技术限制,不建议原址保留和移植。

  环评报告指该石牆树健康状况良好,且是无人为辅助下自然沿石牆隙生长,树高6米,有多枝树干枝撑着茂密的树冠。

健康仍斩 环评无列原因

  该树完全没生长在地上,但由于树根抓紧石隙后面的泥土,吸取水泥和养份,虽然表面看该树似很易塌下,但其实树根系统很稳固,亦不易受人为破坏。

  报告未有清楚列明原因,只指石牆树的生长速度有赖树根发展,碍于石隙的生长空间有限,增长受压,难有很大增长。

  全港约有500幅旧式护土牆,主要坐落于湾仔、中环和西区半山,合计有1,200棵树垂直式依牆生长,大部分都是细叶榕。报告指,中区警署的石牆树相对细小,同品种的石牆树高度可达20米高,树冠比中区警署的石牆树大数倍。

  长春社总监苏国贤强调,树木保育政策下,没有树木不必要被移除的。中西区区议员陈淑庄亦认为,石牆树是罕有的特色,且有顽强生命力,应该保育。

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35. 奥巴马知错 创就业保连任
香港经济日报 2011-01-27 要闻, A04

  美国总统奥巴马昨发表国情咨文,激励美国人面对转型,积极工作。奥巴马深知两年来他忽视就业,令国民不满,却巧借华丽词藻把就业挑战包装成国民机遇,避免直接承认本身失误,但能否落实改善就业,才是争取连任的关键。

演说激励民众 展领导者风范

  自挟高民望上任后,奥巴马声势不断下滑,直至近期才出现回勇。他支持度下跌,因两年来花费太多精力在金融改革和医疗改革上,忽略迫在眉睫的就业问题,结果经济复甦乏力,社会怨气不断累积,令他去年底输掉国会中期选举,失去众议院控制权。

  奥巴马最新的国情咨文却反映其政策出现转向,以制造就业、提升美国竞争力为施政首务。在演辞中,奥巴马并无明言施政转向,却以看家本领的激昂演说,借全球化、中印崛起来激发国民斗心,掩饰本身施政不足。

  他提出「卫星时刻」(Sputnik moment)的口号,谓美国人要拿出五、六十年代与苏联太空竞赛的斗心,不断进步,保持实力,才能改善就业,继续保持全球第一。这是借激发国民创新的潜质、不服输的精神,淡化他创造就业不足的失责。

  奥巴马另一重要的转变,是着手改善华府与商界关系。他最近先后委任了摩根大通高层戴利为白宫幕僚长,和通用电气行政总裁伊梅尔特为总统就业和竞争力委员会主席,表明他希望修补和商界的关系,争取中间选民支持。

  奥巴马最成功之处是懂得在关键时刻,发表关键说话来激励人心、提振士气,以鼓励国民团结一起为未来打拼,而非严词斥责,甚至扩大矛盾。这对所有领导人来说,包括竞逐未来香港行政长官的,都应该学习。

  毫无疑问奥巴马的演说技巧超卓,但要落实宏图,他须跨越至少两重障碍。

  其一,是否真的赢得商界信心,让商界愿意增加投资,带动就业。其二,能否赢得国会支持,通过他的创造就业措施,例如减税,因共和党必会拖其后腿,以阻其连任,重夺总统宝座。

联商界创职位 考验执行能力

  奥巴马一向长于演说,却拙于落实能推动经济增长的政策,现在痛定思痛,以创造就业为大方向,是走对了路,亦是为了连任选举所必要交出的成绩。奥巴马能否成功连任,就要看除打动人心的演说外,他是否有推动职位创造的魄力及能力了。

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36. 日拟派自卫队 鹿儿岛杀鸡 禽流重创家禽业 千万鸡命危
香港经济日报 2011-01-27 国际动态, A19

  日本禽流感疫情有扩散迹象,继九州宫崎县后,邻近的「养鸡王国」鹿儿岛县,亦发现鸡只死于高致病性H5禽流感,当局随即销毁8,600只鸡。本州爱知县亦出现疑似感染个案。首相菅直人表示,自卫队将准备出动到鹿儿岛县协助扑杀。

  日本政府担心疫情扩大,最终可能要销毁1,000万只鸡,严重打击家禽产品业。迄今当局已销毁45.2万只鸡,相当于全国总数0.05%。

  昨晨菅直人召集相关阁员开会,下令全力防止疫情蔓延。他说:「(情况)令人深感遗憾。正因为当地是养鸡场集中区域,必须采取措施使禽流感(疫情)不再进一步扩大。」政府就鹿儿岛县可能求助,要求自卫队做好准备。

「养鸡王国」年产量日本第一

  环境大臣松本龙表示,会密切监控情况,并指野生禽鸟感染「尚无加速蔓延迹象,状况相对稳定。」农林水产大臣鹿野道彦称,确认发现疫症的农场,饲养约8,600只鸡,已全部扑杀及掩埋。

  农林水产省表示,县内发生疫情的蛋鸡饲养场,已确认于上周四(20日)至前日(25日)期间有164只鸡死亡,当中的9只鸡,有8只验出H5禽流感病毒。

  鹿儿岛县是「养鸡王国」,根据农林水产省统计,2009年鹿儿岛县鸡肉及鸡蛋销售,分别排行该国第一及第三位。同年该县出产蛋鸡及鸡肉,占全国整体消耗达15.1%。

  县政府宣布,要求该养鸡场半径10公里内160个饲养场自律,不要运输区内525万鸡只。有关部门在得到检验结果后,再决定移动限制区域。

  政府已派员为主要交通干线、来往车辆及行人消毒。日本禽流感已呈蔓延之势,或是2007年初以来最严重的一次。

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37. 单车穿町巷 探「地元」京都
香港经济日报 2011-01-27 旅途中, C01

  潮流兴骑单车,不少铁骑族都在找适合单车旅游的地点。

  满布千年古迹的日本古都京都,市中心旅游精华都集中于 4 x 5 公里的面积内,极适合单车旅游。

  这次,我就跟随当地「单车达人」逛逛他们喜欢的地方,钻入小巷寻得地元(地道)美味。

地痞店 吃道地寿司

  身为主人家,森田先生很乐意带我们到他喜欢的地道食肆吃午饭。我们就骑着 KCTP 旅游公司自行设计的「梦想之车」Ginrin V4 出游,这辆外形极像女士车的单车,已发展至第 4 代,就算穿裙子的女士也可以骑乘;把手附置物篮,变速档及制动都内置于轮轴,外带轮动发电车头灯,是辆舒适的全天候单车。经过东本愿寺,转入町巷内,就如你家附近的茶餐厅,此处食肆只闻名于街坊,「希味」就是森田先生常去吃饭的地方。

  这寿司店就如寻常京都平房,只是间家庭式食肆,房子的小天井点缀成小庭院。午饭时段,只售 1,000 日圆(HK$94)的寿司定食很受欢迎,包括鲷鱼、鱿鱼、鲔鱼、鳗鱼、甜虾、泡菜、蛋卷作成的寿司,又有猪肉及冬粉锅物、蒸蛋、绿茶雪糕甜品。其中两款寿司是京都特产,鲑鱼球寿司造得特别小巧,乃昔日为艺伎特制;又有渍鲭鱼箱寿司,因京都位处内陆,昔日运输到此的鱼类都需经过盐渍,放于箱子里的米饭上,压成方块后就切开来吃。

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希味˙室町店Info

 地址:京都市下京区室町高辻下ル高辻町 587

 电话:(81)75-351-4211

 时间:11:30am-3pm、5-11pm

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平房中 寻最新鲜馒头

  由市场向北驶就是旧皇宫「京都御所」,这里自公元 794 年起就成为日本权力象征凡 1,100 年。现在皇宫已变成公园,风光不再,但从其建筑仍可看出京城之庄严。

  离开御所,跨过纵贯京都的鸭川,两岸是宁静的步道,我认为是最佳单车径。川旁有在明治维新时开凿的人工河「琵琶湖疏水道」,是当时京都府知事北垣国道为支援城市发展而开凿的,河后有隧道,从琵琶湖输水进鸭川,并在河上建设水力发电站。

  几条街外有京都最平凡、又不平凡的平房区,有些沿溪兴建的寮屋,虽歪歪斜斜,风格却强烈,可见京都有建屋的自由。在陌巷中,Julie 找到了她最喜爱的「祇园馒头」工场。本来,祇园馒头门市位于繁盛的四条通,但识途的京都人却爱到平房区内的工场买新鲜制好的馒头。工场颇似香港食肆的厨房,地上湿漉漉,但他们的出品却真材实料,又无和菓子太甜的弊病,鲜糯米皮极有咬口,红豆粒粒带劲。

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祇园馒头工场Info

 地址: 京都市东山区三条通白川桥西入

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锦市场 典型市井风情

  午饭后,森田先生离队见客,Julie 就全程带路。她自小生活在京都,深爱古都风情融会古今,说这里的人际关系亦较单纯。她跨过繁华的四条通,东驱京都最大的市场 —— 锦市场,看京都市井。

  据她说,古人在这里设市场,因这里拥有全市最好的泉水,除可养靓鱼虾,又可制作优质豆品、冲泡好茶等,都是商贩梦寐以求的。在市场可看到名扬日本的豆制品,除了豆腐,又有巧制成各式花款的腐皮;我远远嗅得炒茶香,鲜炒现卖的宇治茶、锦番茶等都受欢迎;众专门店中,当以厨具专门店最得我心,琳琅满目的传统日式厨具如博物馆般展示,目不暇给之余又可感受日本人敬业的热诚。

祇园 骑车过艺伎街

  平房区与著名的祇园很接近,信步即达。祇园是京都艺伎集中地,又称为「花街」,保留日本传统文化的重要分支。花街仍保留昔日京都街巷的风情,狭窄的巷弄仍可供单车穿梭。据 Julie 说,原来女孩子在 12 岁已可当舞伎,就是学徒,经 4、5 年歌舞、谈吐训练便可晋升为艺伎。艺伎生涯艰苦,收入不算丰厚,入行者已甚少。不过,要欣赏艺伎表演却花费不菲,估计每位消费最低约 5 万日圆;如要平价看表演,还是要等祇园祭等节日。

  一般游客如我,还是行行企企,逛逛花街,感受祇园气氛也够了,车骑到这里,已日暮黄昏,离单车店不远了。

...................

Kyoto Cycling Tour Project Info

 地址:京都市下京区油小路下ル东油小路町 552-13

 电话:(81) 75-354-3636

 时间:每天 9am-7pm

 单车:租单车每天 1,000 日圆(HK$94)起;单车导赏团每位 3,800 日圆(HK$357)起,包导游;某些团队费用包括午餐及景点门票。

 网址:www.kctp.net

---------------------------------

单车达人 吉山朱里

  Julie 本来是 Omron 公司(日本工业自动系统、医疗器械制造商)营业员,由于想找寻理想生活,遂进修语文后成为合资格的兼职英语及普通话传绎、单车导游。她认为身为单车导游可接触不同的游客,工作较自由,又可享受骑单车的乐趣,是她心目中的好工作。

单车达人 森田英一

  森田英一本是酒店从业员,因拥有推广旅游业的触觉,受到「日本首家单车旅游公司」—— Kyoto Cycling Tour Project(KCTP)总裁的邀请,成为这公司的市场及销售总裁。经过 10 年努力,他们接待了 30 万名游客到京都作单车旅游。他寓娱乐于工作,每天都踩着自己的 BD-1 折车上班,极推崇从京都到市郊琵琶湖的旅程,只须带着单车从市中心乘几分钟电车,更可作绕湖旅程。

---------------------------------

京都好骑车

  为何京都适合单车游?这都与这个小城市的历史有关。建立于 1,300 年前平安时代的京都,是依照大唐京城长安为蓝本而建,道路依东西、南北分布,把城市规划成棋盘状。现在,日本政府为推广环保的单车,也在行人道上划出单车线。

  单车在京都非常盛行,环保之余又可节省交通费,又可当作运动,几乎一人一车。

  京都没有东京的压迫感,节奏较轻松,街上汽车亦较少,故此是日本较适合单车旅游的地方。

﹏﹏﹏﹏﹏﹏﹏﹏﹏﹏﹏﹏﹏﹏﹏﹏

旅游 Info

 签证:BNO 或特区护照入境日本毋须签证,可逗留最多 90 天。查询:2522 1184 日本总领事馆。

 机票:国泰航空来往香港、大阪机票 HK$3,900 起,燃油附加费约 HK$630。查询:2747 1888 / www.cathaypacific.com。

 套票:国泰假期京都优惠套票,入住 Hyatt Regency Kyoto(两晚及两位起),包括机票、旅游保险、早餐,每位 HK$4,899 起,续住每位 HK$1,030。适用日期:即日起至 3 月 24 日(不适用于 1 月 29 日及 3 月 19、20 日)。如选择停留大阪可选购 3 日 2 夜套票,HK$4,099 起兼享多一晚住宿,以两晚价钱入住三晚,酒店均邻近铁路,包括 Chisun Inn Osaka Hommachi、Best Western Hotel Fino Osaka Shinsaibashi(新开幕)及 Hotel Sunroute Umeda(新装修),出发日期:即日至 4 月 30 日。亦有 3 日 2 夜大阪+京都优惠套票由 HK$4,539 起。更可在其网页下载「日本环球影城」优惠券。此外,3 月起出发之大阪或京都头等或商务客位套票,均可赠《米芝莲指南˙京都大阪神户 2011》乙本,先到先得。查询:2747 4388 / www.cxholidays.com 国泰假期。

 当地交通:在大阪关西空港 JR 车站,可乘搭特急はるか(Haruka)列车直到京都。网址:www.japanrailpass.net 日本 JR。

 滙率︰100日圆约兑换9.4港元

 天气︰1月京都市气温约-1至7度

 游网︰www.welcome2japan.hk日本国家旅游局、www.kyoto.travel京都旅游网

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38. 不同版本涌现 谁具法律效力
香港经济日报 2011-01-27 要闻, A03

  何鸿燊分产安排短短两日出现多个不同解释版本,究竟哪一方说法才是最后真正具法律效力。有律师表示现阶段仍是未知之数,只有当事人最清楚,只可说由何鸿燊于神志清醒时所作的最后决定才是有效。

倘有人质疑 须提医疗证据

  若有人质疑何鸿燊作出决定时的精神行为能力的话,须提出医疗证据,最终可能要交由法庭决定。

  连日来何鸿燊家族就分配股份事宜均有不同说法,并向传媒披露不少附有何鸿燊签署的信件,三太陈婉珍代表何鸿燊发表声明及解雇律师高国峻(Gordon Oldham),但高国峻却坚持自己仍然是受何鸿燊指示办事,令外界猜不透箇中因由。

  律师马华润表示,现时很难评估最后具法律效力的说法,他指当事人这一刻的决定,下一刻亦可以变卦,最重要是当事人有精神行为能力作出指示,明白自己所说的话及所签文件的内容,若最后有人质疑其精神行为能力,必须交出医疗报告作证,争议或须由法庭评定。

神志清醒下决定 便属有效

  律师蔡克刚认为,只要是何鸿燊在神志清醒作出的最后决定便属有效。至于解雇代表律师的说法,蔡解释可能何鸿燊口头多次提及解雇,但代表律师一日未收到书面通知,一日仍然是按指示办事。

  不过,蔡克刚指有些情况下当事人若曾签订持久授权书,授权他人代为处理财产或法律等事务,该受权人便可持授权书代替当事人作出指示。因此,在这情况下,高国峻便须按授权人指示办事。

  根据《持久授权书条例》,授权人在精神上有能力行事时签立持久授权书(Enduring Powers of Attorney),会将法律上的权限授予另一人(即受权人),代表授权人处理财产及其他法律事务等事宜,当授权人变得精神上无能力行事后,该持久授权书仍然生效,惟授权人签订持久授权书时必须有一名律师及一名医生在场。

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摩通:澳博最坏情况 仍值11元

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本文章之版权由有关出版商拥有。除非获得明确授权,否则严禁复制、改编、分发或发布本文章。版权持有人保留一切权利。本文件经慧科的电子服务提供。

39. 本月信贷爆额 银行加息赶客
香港经济日报 2011-01-27 要闻, A04

  消息指,内地1月份新增贷款将达1.2万亿元(人民币.下同),达到监管部门容忍极限,各银行总行已向分支行下令本月信贷不得超标,多家银行纷纷大幅上调贷款利率,变相加息赶客。内地资金紧张情况未有改善,隔夜息再升55点子(100点子为1厘)。

1.2万亿达极限 隔夜息续升

  《第一财经日报》报道,截至1月24日内地银行新增贷款已达1.2万亿元,达监管部门容忍极限。业内人士称,下两个月信贷控制将会更严格。

  《中国证券报》报道,因年初信贷投放井喷,导致银行信贷资源紧张,一些银行贷款利率出现上调,幅度在10%至45%不等。以5年期贷款为例,上调45%后,利率就由6.4厘大幅升至9.28厘。

  有大型银行资产负责人称,现在银行当月信贷额度已全部投放完毕,总行已下命令,本月各分支行放贷不得超出当月信贷额度。为保证信贷投放额度不超标,银行只好大幅提高贷款利率水平,变相赶客。

  内地银行资金紧张,民间贷款利率亦水涨船高。据了解,深圳民间贷款利率已由平日的12至13厘,急升至17至18厘。

  此外,由于存款准备金率连续7次上调,加上银行资金紧张减少拆出资金,自上周起内地市场利率连续攀升,昨日上海银行同业隔夜拆息(Shibor)为例,昨再升55点子,达到7.76厘,再创逾3年新高。

  另外,银监会主席刘明康称,非常关注通胀问题,又预料中国今年经济增长将告别双位数快速增长。对于1月新增货款逼近1.2万亿元,他指通常1月信贷规模都高于平时。

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40. 奥巴马增科研 誓领先全球
香港经济日报 2011-01-27 要闻, A06

  美国总统奥巴马(Barack Obama)发表上任后第二份《国情咨文》(State of the Union Address),以「赢取未来」(win the future)为主调。他指现今是面临重大挑战的卫星时刻(Sputnik moment),呼吁全国面对全球竞争,政府将加大教育及基建等开支;他更罕有地定下多个硬指标,包括10年减少逾4,000亿美元赤字。 

  环顾现时美国正面对来自以中国为首新兴国家的竞争,令国内职位及工业活动减少,失业率持续高企,「现时的危机是新职位及工业能否在国家植根,抑或在其他地方植根」,故奥巴马以当年美苏太空竞赛为例子,鼓励国家应该抓紧眼前的重要时刻,以投资科研令美国重新领先全球。

盼创新工业 制造更多职位

  奥巴马指,半世纪前苏联首先发射人造卫星「Sputnik 1」上太空,在太空竞赛领先美国,但经过政府投资于优质研究及教育项目后,美国不只在太空竞赛超越苏联,更激起一股革新热潮,创造新工业及数以百万份工作。

  他说:「现在是我们这一代的卫星时刻,我们将会投资于生物医学研究、资讯科技,尤其是洁净能源科技方面,这些投资将增强国家安全、保护地球及为美国人制造无数新职位。」

  他续说:「现在轮到我们了,我们知道需要甚么才能在职位及工业方面竞争,我们需要比世界其他地方有更多革新、更多教育及更多建设,这就是我们赢取未来的方法。」

  虽然奥巴马承诺大力投资基建、教育及研发新技术,但面对严重国家财赤,政府将在不增加财赤及不开征新税窒碍国家经济复甦的情况下,投放资源。

精简政府架构 10年削赤3万亿

  在开源削赤方面,他主张重组政府及删除政府重复的部门,以及5年内冻结政府的非必要开支,冀在未来10年减少逾4,000亿美元(约3.12万亿港元)财赤。

  奥巴马亦建议削减最高企业税率及改革企业税制,令企业不能再走「法律罅」避税,以及能够在25年来首次削减企业税。「我要求民主共和两党简化企业税制及堵塞漏洞,因很多企业说客透过操纵税例令企业得益。」

  回应去年中期选举民主党惨败的教训,奥巴马呼吁两党合作,摒弃党见。「现在是时候放低意见分歧的斗争,是时候作为一个国家向前迈进。」

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41. 何鸿燊开腔 盼「一趟解决」纷争 各房现身三太大宅 四太接走赌王
香港经济日报 2011-01-27 要闻, A03

  赌王何鸿燊分家风波爆发第3日,何鸿燊首度开腔,确认落实由三太陈婉珍周二晚发表「指事件属一场误会」的声明,惟未平息四房之间纷争。四太梁安琪昨出手还击,从三太寓所接走何鸿燊后,与律师会面,料何鸿燊代表律师或将有行动,为分家风波升温。

  何鸿燊四房人昨先后到达三太山顶寓所,先是何鸿燊昨午召开记者会,事前仅邀请一间报馆及一本杂志的记者出席,之后又于邀请一间在门外守候的电视台加入。

二房女儿 视察父接受访问

  何鸿燊在三太及女儿何超云陪同下,一边瞄住摄影机旁的「大字报」,一边读出简短声明,说「两晚前的声明,可以落实」,并希望可以「一趟过解决」近日家庭纷争。

  据了解,二房女儿何超琼、何超凤及何超蕸都在现场视察父亲接受访问,在场传媒未获准发问,在赌王读完声明后便离开三太住宅。

  不过事件并未因赌王现身而一锤定音,午后四太到三太住宅,逗留约半小时离开。及后长房女儿何超贤及家人现身,并进入三太住宅。四太随即折返,何鸿燊然后与梁氏及女儿何超盈离开三太住宅,返回其浅水湾住宅。四太于傍晚时分离开,表示今次事件是家庭纠纷,将交予律师处理。

  身为事件核心的何鸿燊,过去两日发表的声明,出现多处矛盾,予人身不由己的感觉。最明显莫过于他委任律师高国峻(Gordon Oldham),不论是三太周二晚朗读声明,或何氏昨午亲口都表示已解雇高国峻。但高国峻所属的高李严律师行昨发表声明,指仍继续受何鸿燊委任,代表他于澳门博彩、澳门旅游娱乐及Lanceford的权益。

高国峻现身法院 称曾见何

  高国峻昨离开何鸿燊浅水湾寓所后,与数名同事现身高等法院入禀办事处,由于已过了办公时间,他在办事处附近徘徊一会后便离开,估计他到法院与入禀事宜有关。被问及是否与何鸿燊的分股事件有关时,高国峻回应不作评论,并指昨日未有向法院作任何申请。

  高国峻强调仍依照何鸿燊指示办事,并与他面对面谈话。至于何鸿燊会否采取法律行动时,他只回应「no comment,wait and see,I think you would be surprised(不予置评,拭目以待,但我想你将会吃一惊)」,逗留约10分钟后,由长房女儿何超贤丈夫克彼德拥有的座驾接载离开。

  何鸿燊长房在家族纠纷第三日首次公开现身,有说长房与四太连成一线,对抗二房及三房阵营。外电报道何超贤昨晚透过助手发电邮,指父亲曾多次向她,以及在公开场合提及,自己属意将身家平均分予自己的儿女。这种说法与高国峻周二发表的言论一致。

﹏﹏﹏﹏﹏﹏﹏﹏﹏﹏﹏﹏﹏﹏﹏﹏

何鸿燊开腔发声明

  我都好好,我的确为了最近这次风波,弄到自己亦不开心,屋企人亦不开心,因为我这十年来,好锡我屋企人,未试过采取「你告我,我就告你」。前两晚我作出一个声明,可以落实,希望一趟过解决。多谢Gordon介入,我现在已不需要他,因为大问题已解决

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42. 两个2万请务必达标
香港经济日报 2011-01-27 地产要闻, D01

  两天的文章提到两个2万,第一个2万是即将来到的新财政年度,包括勾地表、主动卖地、港铁及市建局招标等等,能够达到2万私人住宅;而这2万单位一定是在未来两、三年能销售楼花,四、五年后入伙。

  换言之,这些新供应土地不是摆出来,而是确保能「售出」,未来投入私人住宅市场出售,当预知达标机会低时,甚至要港铁及市建局负起自行兴建的角色。为甚么?香港市民过去数年面对供应短缺的困局,市民心理预期是「供应有限」,演变下来就是「有买趁手」,加上内地甚至海外资金加入争夺,有限的新供应面对额外的需求更形紧绌。

保2万伙供应 调控买家预期

  而本地需求及本港以外的需求,在可见未来数年不似有减退迹象,所以「力保」2万,才能调控准买家的预期,大家愿不愿意等,取决于港府下一个财政年度的供应蓝图,让市民能够重新拥有「今年不买明年还有!」的置业自由度。

  第一个2万,是确保第二个2万能达到目标,让未来每年有2万个单位落成入伙,借此满足该年即时居住的需求,不管是自住还是租住。唐荣日前执笔之时,中原地产亦发表了未来两年落成量预测。虽然中原认为2万目标并非刚性指标,但唐荣认为,在此疯涨之时,只能以「强硬」、「刚性」指标才能赢得市民对未来供应充裕、稳定的信心,换取更多时间调控。

新屋供应摆脱谷底 稳步增

  中原地产前日的报告指出,预计2011年及2012年私人住宅落成量分别有10,600个及11,800个。由2010年到2012年的3年内,预计平均每年落成量有11,933个,而早前3年(2007年到2009年)的平均每年落成量只有8,801个。每3年的平均落成量前后增加3,132个,跃升36%。显示私人住宅新屋供应成功摆脱早前3年的谷底,并且平稳地增加。每年建屋二万个并非刚性指标,最终要看楼市的发展和社会的需要。

  选取46个可能在2011年落成的私人住宅项目统计,合共提供10,601个单位。2011年数字较2010年减少2,800个,下跌21%。落成量下跌,因为有大型项目延后落成。

  新界区有17个项目,合共6,890个单位,占全年落成量的65%;其中,沙田/马鞍山有4个项目,合共2,634个单位。九龙区有12个项目,共2,552个单位,占24%;其中,将军澳2个项目,2,444个单位;旺角2个项目,1,027个单位;黄大仙3个项目,1,014个单位;港岛区17个项目,共1,159个,占11%。

  本来要说的第三个2万,留待周五分解。

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43. 创科进军零配件 闯中南美东欧
香港经济日报 2011-01-27 金融, A11

  【本报讯】一直以电钻、除草机、吸尘器等电动工具为主打产品的创科实业(00669),开始进军零配件领域,该公司财务董事陈志聪表示,未来2至3年的拓展重点将集中在毛利率较高的零配件业务。尽管中国市场潜力巨大,但他认为,中南美洲以及东欧市场的发展空间更大。

电动工具客稳定 零配件毛利高

  「零配件业务的毛利率,较普通的工具生产要高出10至20个百分点」,加上过去多年对电动工具的销售,令用家数量足以构成稳定的客户基础,陈志聪认为,已到了拓展零配件业务的适当时机,预计3年内销售占比可达双位数。

  该公司更通过统一的电池规格,方便用家灵活地在不同产品之间换用电池,借以提高顾客对品牌的忠诚度。另该公司近几年均可完成「新产品销售占每年总收入不少于三分一」目标。

新市场潜力大 料2年销售倍增

  创科在2010年进行重组,其中上半年就已耗资约1.4亿元,主要是将部分位于欧洲的生产基地迁至中国。不过陈志聪就表示,该公司扩大中国销售的速度并不会太过进取,主要因去年才刚刚进入的中南美洲及东欧市场的发展潜力更大,并预计2年内可将现在的5,000万美元的销售额增加一倍,另内地销售的毛利率不高亦是考量之一。

  由今年3月1日起,广东省东莞市的最低工资将提高19.6%至1,100元人民币,陈志聪承认,人工上涨确实是个「挑战」,但相信影响不大。

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44. 商务部︰华成贸易摩擦重灾区
香港经济日报 2011-01-27 中国要闻, A18

  【本报讯】商务部副部长锺山昨天在「2011年全国贸促工作会议」上指,中国去年遭遇贸易摩擦64宗,涉案金额约70亿美元(约546亿港元),并形容「中国仍是贸易保护的重灾区(即受保护主义严重打击地区)」。

去年64宗 涉546亿

  锺山说,去年中国遭遇的贸易摩擦不仅来自美欧等发达经济体,也来自巴西、阿根廷以及印度等发展中国家,其中既有针对中国传统优势产业的,也有针对高新技术产业的。

  锺山表示,对外贸易作为国民经济增长的三大动力之一,为中国经济社会的发展作出巨大贡献,但目前面对着对资源、能源、土地和劳动力依赖程度高,对管理与创新依赖程度低等问题,这影响中国外贸发展。

产业升级势在必行

  中国贸促会会长万季飞在同一场合表示,中国企业去年面对的贸易摩擦,多围绕滙率、贸易不平衡及美国对华清洁能源产业发起「301调查」等领域。他认为,促进进口和产业升级,不仅是应对当前贸易摩擦、人民币升值压力的权宜之计,更是中国经济健康持续发展的必然需求。

  根据商务部的规划,中国外贸发展的近中期目标是2011年至2020年,巩固贸易大国地位,推动贸易强国进程,中远期目标是2021年至2030年,中国要初步实现贸易强国。

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45. 腾讯倘破位追Call(26105)
香港经济日报 2011-01-27 投资理财, 018

  港股昨日终见反弹,升54点(约0.23%),收报23843点。

  恒指昨高开14点,已见沽压,特别在有关当局公布上海同业拆息再升后(SHIBOR),跌势转急,恒指曾低见23662点,跌126点,直至12时左右,大市才见反弹,估计内地股市造好是推动大市的主要动力,但恒指升幅明显与内地股市升幅有距离,最高只见23976点。国指则升87点(约0.7%),收报12477点。

  沪深300指数及上证综指分别升1.35%及1.17%,收报2978点和2708点。内地开征房产税已如箭在弦,部分地方政府亦已实施限购令,成效如何则有待观察。

  昨日大市交投并不算十分畅旺,但个别股份仍有利好消息支持,如腾讯(00700)公布成立50亿人民币的产业投资基金,同时亦宣布与日本社交网站Gree组成企业联盟,共同发展手机游戏业务。

腾讯成立50亿元产业基金

  腾讯未来股价有机会呈两个方向发展,第一是突破205元高位再上,第二是未能突破双顶而回落,量度跌幅为178元附近。

  轮友可留意腾讯Call(26105),行使价208元,7月18日到期,引伸波幅38.8%,实际槓桿比率5.5倍,溢价12.09%,街货量6.88%。

  腾讯Call(26105)昨收0.191元,轮友可待腾讯突破高位,并于0.2元买入,目标价0.23元,跌穿0.191元止蚀。

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信报财经新闻 A
 1. 中移动4G传获苹果力撑
信报财经新闻 2011-01-27 股市, P08

据媒体引述中国移动(941)董事长王建宙表示,苹果公司将全力支持中国移动下一代TD-LTE技术(即中移动的4G 网路制式),双方正在洽谈iPhone 与中国移动可能合作事宜。

中国移动数年来持续与苹果进行谈判,希望开发在TD-SCDMA 网路运行的iPhon e。中国移动所采用的TD-SCDMA 是本土标准的3G 网路。中国移动是全球拥有用户最多的电信运营商。

盼新网络可支援iPhone 「既然苹果能够开发在CDMA 网路(运行的iPhone),我们希望当他们开发下一代机型时,也可以考虑开发TD-SCDMA 版的机器。」新浪科技援引中国移动董事长王建宙的话报道说。

王建宙在瑞士达沃斯亦透露, 「这两年来我们在讨论相关事宜,目前的形势是正在向前迈进,苹果明确表示将支持TD-LTE 技术。」目前,苹果iPhone 仅在中国联通(762)入网销售,联通是中国第二大移动运营商,采用的是全球3G 标准。

截至去年12 月份,中国移动拥有5.84 亿手机用户,联通则吸引了1.674 亿名用户。中移动昨天股价收报76.3 元,下跌0.78%。

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 2. 钢铁业十二五续推进兼併重组
信报财经新闻 2011-01-27 中国经济, P14

钢铁行业「十二五」规划初稿基本完成。据《经济参考报》引述权威人士透露,在规划的初稿中,鼓励兼併重组和优化产业布局的主线仍将延续,而淘汰落后产能和节能减排标准将有所提高。

上述人士称,还有一些指标有待讨论,目前并未有最终定论。规划初稿中,要求淘汰400 立方米及以下高炉和30 吨及以下转炉;在节能减排标准方面,重点大中型企业吨钢综合能耗不得超过580 千克标准煤。

初稿中又提出,十二五期间,钢铁行业将继续推进联合重组,形成若干个具有较强自主创新能力和国际竞争力的特大型企业,国内排名前10 位钢铁企业的产能占全国产能比例达到60%以上。联合重组方面,十二五期间将形成5000 万吨至6000 万吨级以上的特大型钢铁企业, 以及若干家1000 万吨至3000 万吨级以上大型钢铁企业,其中重点企业包括宝钢、鞍钢、武钢、河北钢铁集团、首钢等大型钢铁集团。

产业布局方面,将推进钢铁工业向沿海沿江转移,沿海沿江钢铁企业产能占全国产能的比例要达到40%以上。初稿中还提到,在十二五期间,一方面要加快湛江、防城港、曹妃甸、山东沿海大型钢铁项目的建设,另一方面要完成福建、江苏沿海的钢铁专案前期准备工作。

至于在铁矿石等资源方面,规划初稿中提到,要鼓励国内钢铁企业从下游生产商向上游材料商延伸,要求企业加快国际合作,积极进行海外布局,争取「十二五」期间权益矿达到40%。

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 3. 中海油发展大计今有分晓
信报财经新闻 2011-01-27 中环解密, P10

各位如果去年年初买入中海油(883),且持货至今,过年的心情肯定很靓。中海油去年股价飙升逾五成,成为表现最佳蓝筹。公司市值大增至1060亿美元,在2010 全球能源企业市值50 强名单中,打进前十名。

依照惯例,中海油今天会公布今年的发展大计,并见分析员。最重要的资本开支,以及原油产量目标等会有分晓,希望新旧管理层完成交班后,今年又为投资者带来惊喜。

中国三大油企巨头手握雄厚资金,一直牛气十足。想当年中石油(857)在A股挂牌时股价飙升,总市值成为全球第一;不过这个第一的凳还没坐热,A 股股价一路下滑。

据PFC Energy 最新的调查显示,美国埃克森美孚公司去年已取代中石油的一哥地位,中石油屈居亚军。

中石化(386)去年的遭遇就更加悲情,市值大幅缩水41%,仅得1016 亿美元,十强不入,好彩股价近来升番,小股东至冇咁伤。

凌通zero@hkej.com

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 4. 家乐福沃尔玛价格欺诈 发改委没收所得罚款五倍
信报财经新闻 2011-01-27 两岸消息, P15

国家发展和改革委员会昨天宣布,家乐福、沃尔玛等超市连锁店存在虚构原价、低价招徕顾客高价结算、不履行价格承诺、误导性价格标示等欺诈行为,发改委已责令这些超市改正,没收违法所得,并处违法所得五倍罚款。

发改委表示,对于那些存在欺诈行为,但没有违法所得,或无法计算违法所得的企业,将最高处以50 万元的罚款。对有屡查屡犯等情形的,各地要从重处理;对性质严重、影响恶劣的,除给予必要的经济处罚外,要责令停业整顿,提请有关部门吊销营业执照。

发改委公布了检查发现的部分价格欺诈典型案件。除家乐福长春、上海、哈尔滨、昆明、长沙、武汉门店外,也涉及沃尔玛的沈阳、南宁、重庆门店。

在披露的近十宗虚构原价行为中,长春市家乐福新民店销售「七匹狼男士全棉横条时尚内衣套」,价签标示原价每套169 元、促销价每套50.70 元,原价应为每套119 元。

沈阳市沃尔玛销售五公斤装的

「香雪高级饺子粉

」,标示原价每袋30.9 元、现价每袋21.5 元,经查实原价应为每袋23.9 元。南宁市沃尔玛销售「雀巢咖啡」,标示原价每盒43.9 元,经查实原价应为每盒37.3 元。

在低价招徕顾客高价结算案件中,上海市家乐福南翔店销售弓箭球形茶壶,价签标示每个36.8 元,实际结算价每个49 元。武汉市汉福超市洪山广场店销售意邦多功能清洁巾,标价每件16.9 元,实际结算价格为每件18.8 元。家乐福韶山路店销售男士手套,标示每双6.9 元,实际结算价为每双21.9 元。

在查处的不履行价格承诺案件中,昆明市家乐福白云店销售老树普洱茶,宣传海报标价为每盒60 元,实际结算价为每盒120。哈尔滨市家乐福会展店销售内衣,广告宣传「全场三折起」,经查实际销售中没有一个品种以三折价格进行销售。

在查处的误导性的价格标示案件中,昆明市家乐福世纪城店销售特色鱿鱼丝,销售价格为每袋138 元,价签标示时用大号字体标示「13」,用小号字体标示「8.

0」,诱导消费者误认为销售价格为每袋13.80 元。

发改委指出,上述行为构成价格欺诈的违法行为。

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 5. IPO持续潮涌的新注解
信报财经新闻 2011-01-27 中国投资, P28

沪深两市周三缩量反弹,个股和板块几近普遍高收。沪指收于2708.81 点(涨1.17%)、深成指收于11599.67 点(涨1.34%);惟成交分别只有周二的88% 和89%;巨潮装备(2.88%)、航太军工(2.84%)和工业(2.79%)等板块领涨大市;分离债等微跌。

回收巨额「流动性」

本栏昨天专门分析过,因为信贷额度紧张,部分银行主动大幅上调贷款利率,最高者加50%,与时下流动性「依然宽松」形成典型悖论;央行副行长易纲称,货币政策工具发挥作用的空间愈来愈窄;证监会放行QFII投资股指期货,不过只能从事套期保值交易。

美国金融危机前后,A 股除了明显受到拖累之外,其IPO 也受到严重影响,停止发行约一年多时间,其后在2009 年6 月恢复。新股的融资规模,在比过往平均融资水平有了持续的大幅提升之后,自然就会引发市场的高度关注。

此次恢复新股发行主要有二大特点,一是新股的发行市盈率畸高,且屡屡创出新高纪录;二是新股发行的规模、节奏和总融资额既大又多。从那时至今,有形成持续潮涌之势。外界对此的解读是,实体经济的融资需求太过殷切。

但是笔者后来通过一位在国家级官媒工作过的朋友处得知,这其实是监管当局有意通过IPO 的这几招,持续大量回收社会上的巨额「流动性」。后来的事实也符合这位朋友的嘱告,尽管官方是只做而不说。央行近期开始祭出新的调控目标,其中之一就是「新增社会融资总额」。其含义包括新增贷款、股市融资额、债市融资额、保险用于投资实体经济的资金等融资总和。大背景当然是顺应货币政策由适度宽松转向稳健;现实的考量则是,当局试图通过此举来降低银行信贷和间接融资在整个社会融资体系当中的比重。

统计显示,去年新增社会融资总额在12 万亿至13 万亿元(人民币.下同)之间,包括7.94 万亿元的新增贷款、1.59 万亿元的信用债发行总量、9550 亿元的股市融资规模,再加上将近2 万亿元的银信合作规模。去年A 股新发、增发和配股份别为4793.20 亿元、2588.66 亿元和1452.92 亿元,加上可转债717亿元,总计约9551.78 亿元;而2009 年的数据为6084 亿元,增幅高达57%。

提高直接融资占比

宏观经济显然已经被宽松货币政策严重「套牢」。信贷规模稍有收缩,实体经济就有放缓之虞。当局可能急迫需要一味缓药,来治理当前宏观经济之疾。即通过融资的结构性变化和调整,来降低实体经济对于银行信贷的严重依赖。社会融资总额就将成为央行调控的一个新指标,该项新政策或将希望通过空间转换,即提高资本市场、债市的融资比例,使得市场对于2011 年信贷规模的担忧和揣测会有所弱化。

由此,A 股IPO 的持续潮涌又有了新的诠释:1、回收巨额流动性;2、降低、分担及分流社会对银行信贷的依赖度,并提高直接融资的规模与占比。如此看来,今年A 股IPO 的规模,不仅不会减少,反而还会增加。

钟林

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 6. 港股微弹大市偏淡
信报财经新闻 2011-01-27 股市, P08

港股经过四连跌后,昨天轻微反弹,恒生指数收报23843 点,上升54 点;主板成交金额维持682 亿元的水平。不过,两只权重最大的成分股滙丰控股(005)和中移动(941)双双逆市下跌。

恒指昨天高开14 点,之后曾一度倒跌超过100 点,上午交易时段收市前又回升105 点,午后升幅收窄,成分股当中升幅最大的招商局国际(144)和中信泰富(267)均上升超过3%。

嘉华获花旗唱好股价升

距离农历新年不足一周,市场普遍预期中央于假期内将再收紧银根,导致近日大市气氛偏淡。有证券界人士认为,恒指波幅收窄,反映投资者采取观望的态度。

参考反映市场趋势的「信报强弱指数」,其中强势股指数持续下跌,而弱势股指数则持续上升,意味大市转弱的情况愈见明显。

恒指地产分类指数的表现最好,昨天上升90 点。

摩根士丹利发表行业报告预期,本港住宅物业的价格仍未见顶,原因是大量资金流入,加上实际需求上升,估计今、明两年的年增长将由过去24 个月累积上升达60%,收窄至15%至20%。

嘉华国际(173) 获花旗唱好, 股价单日上升6.9%,收报3.41 元。该行大幅上调嘉华的目标价至6.25 元,认为目前的估值相当吸引,是小型地产商的投资首选。荣丰国际(063)昨天复牌后亦录得2.94%的升幅。

中海油(883)公布2011 年的发展计划的前夕,瑞银确认「中性」的投资评级,集团股价逆市下跌0.21%。国泰航空(293)是表现最差的蓝筹股,单日下跌2.36 %。集团昨天宣布,已经就欧洲委员会去年11 月指公司在2004 至2006 年间违反欧洲竞争法,并判处5710 万欧罗(约6 亿港元)罚款,向欧盟普通法院提出上诉。

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 7. 毋须眼镜 画质优越 全息影像可取代3D电影旧技术
信报财经新闻 2011-01-27 科技创意, P39

话说清朝一汪姓官员乘马车赶路,忽遇倾盆大雨,雷电交加,遂躲到一旁避雨。雨过天晴,汪官赫见车窗鬼影幢幢,掀帘察看,车内又空无一人。审视一番,原来鬼影系刻于玻璃窗上。汪官见状,大感神异,回家后直把玻璃卸下供奉。

一供便是二十多载。及至玻璃辗转传到博学者姚元之手中,他便把此异闻载于所撰之书《竹叶亭杂记》,解释鬼影实为仙影,其时雷雨肆虐,仙人与童子避劫于玻璃,离开后灵气聚合,故成影像,历久不散。

此一典故并非无中生有。事实上,当时的玻璃仙影,几乎每个现代人的钱包都会有几个。只要有入息证明,谁都可以申请,还豁免首年年费哩。

3D 电影成近年潮流,然明眼人早知这戴眼镜看立体的把戏,实为「旧货」,早于五十年前已经出现。「粗略分类的话,属于第一代3D 技术。」香港城市大学电子工程学系副教授曾伟明说。

「当然,现在无论摄影机、镜头抑或眼镜等硬件都比以前优化了,但它的基本概念依然无变。」

仙影实为全息图

曾教授说,第二代3D 技术亦不复杂。坊间随处可买到一些小儿玩意硬卡板,上有凹凸纹,从不同角度看可见到不同图案,这就是第二代3D 技术的原形。

「第二代好处在于不必戴眼镜亦可观看3D 影像,这种模式称为『裸视』(Len s free)。」曾教授解释。今日萤光幕已可利用此技术做出立体视觉效果,市面上的3D 电视即属此类。「不过画面会比较朦胧。这种技术还需要时间成熟。」至于第三代,便是那清代的「仙影」、Visa 卡上的立体鹰和Master 卡上的立体世界地图。涉及的技术名为「全息术」(Holography)。

全息术亦非崭新科技,早于1948 年已由匈牙利/英国借科学家Dennis Gabor 发明。不过由于当时光束强度及纯度仍未能达到此技术需求,故全息术一直未得普及应用。

至1960 年,激光的出现推动了全息术的发展。科学家成功制造出能够再现3D 物体的全息图,从实践上证明了全息术潜力无限,终令Dennis Gabor于1971 年赢得诺贝尔物理学奖。

全息图(Hologram)一词源于希腊语中两个单词:Holos 和Gramme。前者是整个或完整的意思;后者则解作讯息、书信。「全息术」之意便是把物体的全部讯息记录下来并再现的技术。

高清电视超低清

简单而言,全息术的原理是发射一束激光,以镜把它分成两束,一束(称为物体记录光束)照射到拍摄物上,另一束(参考记录光束)则直接射到全息菲林。

前一束会经物体

反射到菲林,与后一束相会,透过干涉效应(interference)产生独特条纹,记录于菲林上。接下来只要把全息菲林像普通菲林般作显影、定影、乾燥、密封的处理, 「照片」便能冲晒出来。这张「照片」就是全息图了。

「现在什么都讲求数码化,我从事的研究正是关于全息影像的数码显示与制作。」曾教授说。「倘研究成功,不仅能够以数码相机拍摄全息图,用家更可用图像软件(如小画家)随心绘制,并于电脑萤光幕上裸视,完全无须配佩眼镜。」要达至上述目标,曾教授面对的一大难题是高解像度要求。为测试数码全息术,他在一块数厘米的玻璃片上以此技术刻上「城市大学」四个字, 「这里已要用到4000X40 00 点(Pixel)解像度!市面上所谓的高清电视,42 吋大小才只有不足2000 点。

与之相比,我这种才是真高清,它是超低清!」「超低清」电视已价值不菲, 「真高清」无疑更昂贵,上述一小方玻璃片造价已逾2000 元。「然而,最大挑战是电脑运算速度。太多点了,电脑不够快,用传统方法计算,可能要数十小时才能产生一幅全息图。」「今日所有从事这方面研究的人也在想如何设计一套新算法(algorithm,即计算步骤),以减少计算时间。我的研究目标就是一秒产生约三十幅全息图。」「其实现在的电脑萤光幕已勉强可以做到全息图的效果。不过要显示得像电视一样细致漂亮,大概还需要很长时间罢。」「长时间即是多久呢?

」我问。

「其实也只是十年八载。你不觉得现今科技就好似烧爆竹一样,进步得快,价

钱也跌得快么?」杨天帅

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 8. 「上下」「下上」难度增宜调整
信报财经新闻 2011-01-27 港股分析, P25

港股踏入2011 年初段炒高后,近两周以调整为主导,与内地正为调控通胀及增长过速,加上炒美国经济复苏吸引部分资金回流;港股在早前受资金回流内地应付较紧张的信贷情况,一下子令热炒的股份纷纷回吐。

投资者在过去不足一个月内,无论接收的内地资讯及海外经济展望均见不断的变更,亦是构成大市与个别股份上落波幅大,昨天恒指在23800 点水平反覆,个别近期调整较大者有反弹,但重磅如滙控(005)与中移动(941)依然成为大户在期指结算前左右市况的工具,大市成交维持在682 亿元较淡静水平,静市最利大户短线上下其手,笔者亦建议投资者多持现金,减低受短期市况波动的困扰。对喜欢在上落市作低吸高沽的灵活走位者,不妨选定一些具炒上落条件的板块进行部署,不失为目前资金缺乏出路下的另类选择。

选股难度提升调整未休

近期本栏强调港股已进入一段摸着石头过河的上落市,在不太悲观的大前提下,却不如一些大好友看牛市上望30000 点或以上,主要是环顾目前左右港股的宏观政经因素,透过由上而下(top down)分析不同产业及资金流向作选股,或是由下而上(bottom up)寻找有盈利增长及值博率的股份,均面对太多不明朗因素,宏观因素须面对包括内地应付通胀及个别产业过热可能进行的退市措施,来自美国QE 2 成效带来的复苏效果,均要待一段日子才能有较明朗化的局面,内地传出以加速工资上调抵消物价上涨,原材料价格的上升正削减企业边际利润,今年推出刺激措施均属中长性优化政策,无助企业盈利新年度的改善,连同近期美股偏好,吸引去年留在亚太区及新兴市场的资金部分回流,对港股带来的影响属中性偏淡。

至于在选产业板块及个别企业的盈利及增长潜力上,在经过一段太多热钱追捧发掘下,找出理想投资目标变得愈来愈困难,最快亦要从未来两个月上市公司的业绩带来新资讯,以至管理层对新年度业务发展部署及展望,才有望确认一些有依据的投资选择;因此,未来一段日子将是赚辛苦钱日子,深信未来应有更理想的入货时机。当然,一批强势股与偏好的板块将获资金追捧及跑赢大市,但整体而言,目前力陈炒上落市不变是有根有据,至于在选股难度提升下,甚至去年力言炒股不炒市亦变得知易行难,建议投资者入市前不妨多等等,或许投资其他市场难度将较港股为低。

人行市场调控多变

恒隆系揭开蓝筹股业绩期序幕,恒隆地产(101)中期盈利34.18 亿元,跌81 %,每股盈利80 仙,扣除物业重估等因素下,基本纯利12.57 亿元;恒隆集团(010)纯利19亿元,跌81%,集团从事中港地产发展业务,亦增加收租物业比重,每年租金收入50 亿元,这间过去一段日子利用本地高楼价套现及发股集资作内地发展,目前已在内地有土地储备2000 万方呎,作未来10 至15 年发展,明年内地收益将超越本港,投资者不妨评估一批中港两地为主的地产股作比较,了解依赖内地收益增加可能带来的波动性较本港为多,令其投资风险较高,回报亦相对较佳。

面对内地银行截至1 月24 日新增贷款达1.2 万亿元,对在商言商争取较高回报的银行活动是可理解,却令未来一段日子人行有需要令市场感到信贷紧缩,这才是令A 股与H 股近期调整消化信贷收紧引发增长放缓的预期,虽然从早前因人行多番调升存款准备金率,引致银行信贷资源空前紧张,即使人行已酌量对市场放水,但春节前资金紧张情况持续,这亦令近期不少涉及内地资金炒作的股份沽压未减,特别是月初累积升幅较大者,这批股份稍后能否回升还要看春节后内地信贷紧张能否消减。

由于一批本地业务为主股份的投资者以海外基金与本地投资者为主,形成抛售套现压力较细,短期有避风塘对象,至于未来会否再出现沽本地股购中资股的「换马」潮,还要留待春节后才有启示。

建材水泥板块伺机低吸高沽建材与水泥板块去年年中获本栏看好,预期内地基建与楼房兴建投资持续,由开拓大西北以至增扩福利房,未来要作数万亿元的水利工程,由于去年第四季受限电影响生产下令水泥价格一度急升,近期已从高位回落,不过,在内地进行汰弱留强下,令个别水泥股所占的市场比重上升,产能亦增加足以弥补水泥价格的调整;对喜欢炒业绩者,可预期稍后公布的建材水泥股,它们业绩应不俗,特别在地区上有议价能力的企业;亦可多留意具併购财力与空间的企业,以目前内地十大水泥企业市场占有率只25%,离政府订下2015年占35%的目标,尚有不低併购增长空间,属可攻可守的产业。当然,经历去年下半年累积可观升幅,中央对物价有调控措施,未来半年应处于炒上落通道运行,投资者可利用上落平台进行低吸高沽,特别是稍后公布的2010 年度业绩被看好的一群。

踏入3 月份,不少内地大型工程将全面动工下,可望带来一段不俗反弹空间,以中材(1893)在6.2 至7.7 元波动、中国建材(3323) 在17.2 至21 元、华润水泥(1313)在5.5 至6.5 元、安徽海螺水泥(914)在32 至42 元、山水水泥(691)在5.2 至6.6 元等上落通道上运行,是一个炒上落市不俗的板块。

煤炭股利炒上落

同样地,煤炭股板块亦有望在首季处于较明显的上落通道上运行,虽然过去一年三间主要煤炭股盈利表现均显示中型煤炭股跑出,例如兗州煤业(1171)去年有三成多升幅,但亦要留意这类股份亦要承受表现反覆较大的风险,如2009 年表现佳成为煤炭明星股的福山能源(639),在2010 年跌幅相对较大,其余中国神华(1088)与中煤能源(1898)亦在期内有近两成跌幅。这板块亦是处于国策鼓励併合及加强环保安全措施,对有併购能力者优先考虑,当然,业务分布情况更异,有关好淡因素有所反映下,投资者亦可以炒上落,首季订下的上落波幅以中国神华在28 至38 元、中煤能源在10 至14 元、兗州煤业在20 至27 元及福山能源在5 至6.5 元炒上落机会较大,配合笔者预期,港股炒上落为主导下,投资者亦可利用上述波动市下的技术指标作为低吸高沽部署,亦可考虑选定一些以炒上落为主的板块,制订买卖策略部署,无谓受短期市场情绪起伏影响,变成高追低沽构成损失。

陆文

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 9. 花旗宾卡疑似ICON业主
信报财经新闻 2011-01-27 中环解密, P10

「THE ICON」这个楼盘名副其实成为香港的「THE ICON」,事件发展高潮迭起。

凌通听闻,已故米业大王之子林世豪之前大手笔买两单位,原来是打算给两位公子「一人一间」,不过因为其中一个单位成为了回购对象,看来林世豪要再部署买多间屋畀个仔先得。

THE ICON 的名人买家其实又何止林世豪一个,有中环「宾架」也是THE ICON 疑似业主,究竟是谁?花旗香港环球个人银行服务行政总裁及总经理卢韦柏【图】是也。

在小业主行列中,有一个与卢韦柏中文名字相同,又系叫Weber 的人,以1038 万元购入17B 单位, 恰巧这个单位又「帮衬」花旗银行做按揭。不过,卢韦柏也不用担心,受影响的只是A 及D 座,佢个单位应该可以入伙大吉。

凌通zero@hkej.com

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10. 频传卖盘李家杰洽购无下文
信报财经新闻 2011-01-27 要闻社评, P02

随着六叔、六婶年纪渐大,无线电视近年卖盘的传闻此起彼落【表】,一度叫人雾里看花。早在2006 年,有消息指其士国际(025)主席周亦卿洽购TVB ,不过因邵逸夫开价百亿元而作罢,周亦卿其后也作出了否认。

2008 年5 月, 曾传出凯雷资本(Carlyle)及黑石(Blackstone)两大私募基金有意收购无线,后被竞争对手碧桂园(2007)主席杨国强击退。后杨国强获李兆基30 亿元支持,但因金融海啸得不到银行贷款而最后放弃收购。

2010 年1 月,内地第二大传媒集团──上海文广新闻传媒旗下的华人产业基金有意入股TVB,

但洽购之后并无下文

。去年9 月,恒基(012)主席李兆基长子李家杰盛传已洽购邵氏兄弟,以取得无线控制权,恒基其后指洽购属李家杰私人交易,与四叔及恒基系公司无关。这是四年来无线卖盘传闻首次得到证实,不过其后也不了了之。

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11. 新兴市场降温实验
信报财经新闻 2011-01-27 国际脉象, P36

新兴市场的央行首脑实在值得同情。尽管他们国家的经济前景一片光明,但货币决策者却要收拾基本上并非由他们造成的烂摊子。

问题来自新兴及发达市场天壤之别的增长步伐,富裕国家的极端经济刺激政策加上寻求回报的环球投资者,令情势火上加油。来自发达经济体的过盛资金推高环球商品价格、助长资产泡沫,同时刺激通胀;根据摩根士丹利的数据,目前面对通胀问题的国家,占新兴市场总体国内生产总值(GDP)77%。

如何化解这股趋势带来的影响,正是央行首脑的难题。教科书的解决办法是加息,从而减慢需求并纾缓价格压力。自12 月至今,中国、巴西、智利、波兰和匈牙利的央行分别加息。然而,这个针对国内的解决方法,难以左右环球商品价格。

再者,高息吸引外资流入,推高国内其他价格。息口一旦太高,或会扼杀增长,甚至触发国内银行危机。难怪央行都审慎行事,只有巴西把政策利率(10.75 厘)调至远高于通胀率(5.5%)的水平。

另类货币疗法是有的。土耳其的减息策略,目前为止能成功遏抑热钱;与此同时,该国的银行储备限制也提高(这是中国的主要策略)。巴西及南韩则推出多项资本管制措施。

这些方法或奏效,但却可能带来有害的副作用。基础增长动力鼓励资金流向新兴世界,而且,若有其他较简单的解决方法,任何脑筋正常的央行舵手都不愿拿货币政策大肆做实验。新兴市场不管增长有多快,它们还没有制订环球货币政策议程的能力,如何应对也未有共识。

译自THE LEX COLUMN版权所有﹕FINANCIAL TIMESTHE LEX

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12. 南韩上季GDP增0.5%略胜预期
信报财经新闻 2011-01-27 国际金融, P19

南韩央行昨天公布,去年第四季国内生产总值(GDP)增长0.5%,低于第三季的0.7%,但略高于分析员预期的0.4%。上季GDP 按年增长4.8%。

全年计算,南韩去年增长6.1%,是2002 年以来最大升幅。经济增长放慢主要是因为投资减少,数据将增加央行暂停透过加息来压抑通胀的可能。

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13. 投资内地人债150亿额度获批
信报财经新闻 2011-01-27 金融, P06

由于全球金融环境不稳定,金管局总裁陈德霖表示,外滙基金将透过多元化投资,以分散风险及在中、长线提高回报率。该局除已获人民银行批出150 亿元人民币额度,以投资内地银行间债券市场外,亦开展多种类别的投资,包括做「收租佬」,投资海外物业。

外滙基金昨天的业绩亦披露为另类投资如私募基金等而成立的投资控股附属公司的全年表现,有关公司年内投资收入估值为14 亿元,至去年底资产147 亿元,占外滙基金其他资产38.85%。

陈德霖表示,外滙基金已展开几种类别的投资,包括投资新兴市场的上市股票及债券、私募基金及海外投资物业。该局去年10 月获中国证监会批准为合格海外机构投资(QFII),可投资内地上市股票及债券,现正等待外管局就额度的通报。

该局去年底亦获人行批准投资内地银行间债券市场,额度为150 亿元人民币,希望不久将可以进行投资,至于投资内地市场会否有助提升外滙基金回报,他表示,有关投资相对外滙基金2 万亿元资产,比重不大,但多元化的投资将按部就班发展。

该局副总裁余伟文表示,投资内地债市是属长期投资,并非炒卖,该局正与人行洽商,以港元兑换人民币作投资。

余伟文表示,新兴市场的股票及债券投资是外滙基金投资组合的一部分,而该局成立的投资控股附属公司的投资包括私募基金及海外物业投资,随着投资需要,该局将继续注资入该公司。

虽然外滙基金投资海外物业收租,希望带来中长期的平稳回报,而且有关投资与外滙基金资产的关连性甚低。

他未有详细披露物业投资的地点,据了解,所投资的物业并非在内地,主要是投资于成熟而市场有深度、有长期收租回报记录的国际大都会。

有市场人士指出,去年本港上市公司香港兴业(480)亦有投资日本的收租物业,而最近华人置业(127)亦以相等于34.5 亿元,收购高盛英国伦敦总部;加上美国金融风暴后,资产价格大跌,不排除金管局有机会在有关地方买楼收租。

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14. 买卖Decumulator 宜先辨清障碍期权
信报财经新闻 2011-01-27 专家之言, P27

期权是一种常见的金融衍生工具,它的持有者有权利在指定的某一日期(欧式期权),或者在此日期之前(美式期权)按照事先约定的价格买卖标的资产(underlying asset),有权买入则称为认购权(call option),有权卖出则称为认沽权( put option),事先约定的价格称为执行价(strike price),指定的日期叫到期日(maturity date)。标的资产可以是股票、外滙等金融商品,也可以是石油、黄金等实物商品。

根据标的资产的现货价格,期权又可分为价内、平价和价外三类。假如立刻执行期权可获利润,则期权称为价内期权;如果现货价接近执行价格称为平价;若执行期权无利可图,则称为价外期权。

合约设有特定障碍价

期权的基本交易形态分为买入认购权、买入认沽权、卖出认购权,以及卖出认沽权四种。因期权的买入方拥有执行期权的权利(right),而卖出方要承担履行相对行为的义务,所以期权的买方需要支付给卖方一定的费用,这费用称为期权金(option premium)。

在金融数学领域有一专门学科称为期权定价,便是研究如何计算合理的期权金额。著名的Black-Sholes 公式解决了简单型期权(Vanilla option)定价的问题,但随着金融衍生产品的发展,市场上出现了许多变化型的新奇期权(exoticopti on):例如障碍期权(Barrier options) 、亚式期权(Asian options) 、回望期权(Look-backoptions) 等等。

这些新奇期权的定价公式也渐渐受重视。

在香港,有很多投资银行都会推出很多非常复杂多

变的结构性金融产

品,它们通常可等价于多个不同的期权的组合,例如在前文(见1 月20 日专栏)所介绍的累积沽出合约(Deccumulator),买方要在某个时期(例如是一个月)内的每个交易天,都要以指定的执行价(例如是每股103 元)买进1000 股的股票(该股现价为100 元)。

假设一个月内共有21 个股票交易日, 那么买入这个decumulator 就相当于买入了21 个欧式认沽权和卖出了21 个欧式认购权,这些期权都是基于同一只股票并拥有相同的执行价(等如103 元),不同的是它们的到期日,一个月内的每一个交易天都分别有一个买权和一个卖权到期,如果当日的股票价格低于执行价,则买家可以行使当日的卖权以高出市价的价格沽货(因为他买入了认沽权)从中获利。但如果当日的股价高于执行价,则买家依然有义务要以执行价出货(因为他卖出了认购权)。

但要注意的是,decumulator 合约通常还会设置一个障碍价(例如是99 元),当股价跌破此障碍位时,合约便自动终止。这种型式的期权是障碍期权的一种,全名为下限型的触及失效期权(down-and-out barrier option)。有关这种期权的合理订价公式,可参考(1991, M. Rubinstein and E. Reiner,Breaking Down the Barriers, Journal of Risk),或可电邮笔者索取。

合理定价助评估风险

这些新奇期权的定价公式,跟著名的Black-Sholes(BS)公式很类似。合理价可表为K(执行价),H(障碍价),S(起始现货价),q(股票的分红年利),r(无风险利率),波动率(σ)及T(剩余到期时间)的函数。我们假设S=100 元,K=103 元,H=99 元,q=1%,r=1%及σ=18%,利用这个函数,就可计算出21 个认沽权及21 个认购权的合理期权金。【见左表】由于买家要付期权金才能取得认沽权, 故共要付出5.7406 元,但由于他同时也卖出认购权,所以应收回5.7030元。

总的来说, 买家应付出0.0376 元( 等如5.7406 元减5.7030 元)。但在签订dec umulator 合约时,他只付出0 元,所以这只decumulator 的定价是便宜的,由于牵涉的股份是1000 股而不是1 股,所以买家的买价比起合理价格共便宜了37.6 元。

知道了decumulator 的合理定价,一方面可知道这宗买卖是否合理,同时,又可以利用来把投资风险量化。可惜的是,作为卖家的大户,对这些计算优而为之,而作为买家的小户,却是似懂非懂,小户要买入decumulator时,应该三思而后行。邹小敏博士为理工大学专业进修学院高级讲师林建教授为香港浸会大学终身教授及国信证券(香港)资产管理有限公司顾问邹小敏、林建

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15. 跌至支持位 A指恒指双翼齐飞
信报财经新闻 2011-01-27 专家之言, P27

周二美股先跌后稳。道指早段曾上升5 点,再创三年新高11985 点,出现回吐,下跌82 点,消费者信心指数好,道指反弹,全日收报11977 点,微跌3点。

美国上市企业进入第四季业绩公布期,大企业如美国铝业及摩根大通均业绩理想,摩根士丹利更增长高达60%,重型机械制造商Caterpillar 业绩靓及苹果电脑大赚78%。上周五,通用电气增长33%,在业绩支持下,道指升穿去年高位11625 点,本周二升至最高11985 点,高出11625 点共360 点或3%才现争持。

以道指每年阴阳烛分析,2009 年以「曙光初现」及阳烛升至第四季,2010 年全年再以阳烛升至第四季,均表示牛市一连两年上升中,由于全年最高点出现于第四季,表示今年牛市持续及一定升穿去年高位11625 点。果然如此,今年年线阴阳烛,1 月又以阳烛上升中,由1 月10 日最低11573点,上升至本周二最高11985 点,一个月内已上升412 点或3.6%,十分强劲。去年全年由9835 点上升至11625 点,共升1790 点,平均每月上升149 点而已。

道指由2009 年至今,年线图正以第三枝阳烛向上寻找牛市浪顶中,详情参看周三图文。

上证A 股指数昨天急升1.17% , 最高曾见2838 点,升34 点争持,全日收报2836 点,升32点。

上证A 指去年7 月,最低见2431 点,MACD牛背驰,反映牛市二期长期②浪整固见底,以「头肩底」升穿颈线2832 点,牛三③浪的中期(1)浪,以5 个小浪大幅上升至3338 点,累升907 点或37%,月来以(2)浪a、b、c 浪进入整固,由33 38 点回落到本周二的2786 点【图1】,下跌552 点,约调整(1)浪总升幅的0.61 8 稍多,合乎(2)浪整固法则,循环周期或已见底,重现新升浪。

A 指须升穿反弹b 浪顶3078 点,才确认整固完成,(3)浪大幅上望3710点或以上。每周走势图动力指标「牛背驰」,反映支持渐现,预料2 月大有转机,(3)浪具备30%的巨大上升潜力,大大有利港股2 月向好。

港股昨天先跌后升,恒指最低曾见23662 点,跌127 点回升,最高23976 点,升187点回吐,全日收报23843 点,升54 点,成交增至682 亿元。如守昨天低位,则新升浪已展开了。心水股港交所(388)。东亚(023)收报35.75 元,升至3 年新高,先上试44 元。

恒指由去年12 月20 日最低22392 点,填完9月至10 月的上升裂口,完成中期(2)浪整固,(3)-1 浪升至24434 点,共升2042 点,出现后抽,昨天最低2366 2 点,守通道顶之上【图2】,且2 浪刚好调整0.382,大市掉头急升;如见底,3浪上望25700 点至26484 点。揸2 月25200 点及25000 点认购期权,昨天收报56 点及80 点,以15%止蚀。建行(939)昨天收报7 元,今年先上望8.67 元。昨文指出,港股整固已届尾声。

作者为证监会持牌人,原名梁炳耀简卓峰

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16. 渣打:中港股市今年追落后
信报财经新闻 2011-01-27 股市, P08

去年中港股市表现较区内其他市场逊色,渣打银行财富管理投资策略师梁振辉表示,今年中港股市有望追落后,预料待政策因素逐步明朗,下半年港股表现会较好。

上半年不明朗料下半年转好梁振辉于投资展望会上表示,当前港股于26000 点阻力大,但22700 点附近有较强支持,预料上半年风险大于回报,主要因内地政策尚未明朗,待内地加息1 至2 次、不明朗因素消除后,港股下半年有望回稳上升,表现将胜上半年。同时, 3 月起上市公司业绩公布或成为催化剂,业绩优胜者或于第二季起好转。行业方面,看好与科技及商品相关的板块表现。

他指出,大中华区内较看好南韩股市和台股,预期在受惠内地经济联系以及在美国科技股表现优异的双重带动下,台股将呈上升趋势,而去年强势的东南亚股市,则可能有回吐压力。

楼市方面,他预期,今年香港房地产市场会平稳发展,因低息、热钱流入及就业情况改善等基本因素不变。投资而言,则较看好商业地产,住宅类地产股面临政策调控风险。

外币方面,梁振辉指出,近期美国经济数据改善、企业业绩理想,或令资金流向美国,对美元起支持作用,短期内(3 个月)亦较看好美国股市。不过,美国全年加息机会不大,预料美元于下半年走势转弱,而人民币全年升值料为6%。

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17. 腾讯与日本社交网站Gree Inc 结盟
信报财经新闻 2011-01-27 股市, P05

新晋「双红底股」腾讯(700)近日动作频频,继周二宣布设立50亿元(人民币.下同)的产业基金后, 昨天又与日本最大的社交网站Gree Inc 达成战略合作协议,将借助后者的网络,登陆日本的手机游戏市场。

Gree Inc 被誉为日本的Facebook,供用户透过网络和手机建立个人档案、聊天及玩游戏,拥有逾2000 万注册用户,在东京证交所上市, 市值约2300 亿日圆, 折合218 亿元。Gree I nc 昨天在东交所发出公告,表示已经与腾讯结为合作伙伴。

根据协议,腾讯将可透过GreeInc 的网络,向后者的用户提供手机线上游戏。

与此同时,双方亦将在内地建立新的平台,让Gree Inc 接触腾讯的逾4 亿QQ 用户。另外,Gree Inc 会向腾讯分享相关的网络技术和市场知识。

腾讯以即时通讯软件QQ 起家,但网游业务后来居上,现已占公司逾半收入,亦成为内地的网游龙头,拥近三成份额。2004 年成立的GreeInc 近年亦主打网游,现时近八成收入来自售卖虚拟服饰和道具。腾讯昨天股价重上200 元,升1.9%,收报202.8 元,最高205 元。

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18. 企业管治与公司绩效的两道谜
信报财经新闻 2011-01-27 经管智慧, P35

资本市场具有引导储蓄、促进资源有效配置、裨益经济发展与创造股东财富的功能。然而,讯息不对称却使投资人权益未必获得最大保证。为了避免企业经营者置个人利益于股东权益之上、脱离信托责任原则, 国内外的各种企业管治(CorporateGovernance)立法,都在强化对管理层的监督和对投资人的保障。其中的两个关键机制就是董事独立性与董监事及高阶经理人责任保险(Directors an d Officers Liability Insurance,以下简称「董责险」)。

例如,香港交易所最近建议修订《上市规则》,规定独立非执行董事应占董事会人数至少三分之一。另外,台湾金融监督管理委员会也在四年前推动强制设立独立董事制度,规定金融机构及上市柜公司资本额在500 亿元以上者,必须董事会中有若干比例的独立外部董事。规定至今,1300 多家上市公司中已有近四成设立独立董事。

由于去年5 月台湾立法院财委会决议强制所有上市公司必须设置「薪酬委员会」,由独立董事担任该委员会主席,监督上市企业高层管理人员薪酬,避免企业高管坐拥高薪的肥猫现象。为此,金管会正积极研究扩大强制设立独立董事的适用范围。

问题一:提高独立董事比例,真的有益于公司绩效、创造股东价值吗?

独立董事受邀参与企业董事会,除了领取报酬履行监督职责外,也让自己暴露于投资者诉讼的风险之中。一旦公司因专业疏失导致经营不善、股价下滑,就可能面临法律诉讼后的潜在巨额赔偿。因此,独立董事几乎都会要求对此项责任风险提供保障。从企业管治和保障投资者的角度出发,一些国家更将企业投保「董责险」列为上市公开发行的条件之一。在加拿大和台湾金融监理单位,更强制上市企业披露是否购买董责险的资料。

购买董责险体现良好管治

虽然内地和本港都没有强制购买董责险和披露的要求,不过,有些企业则视之为企业管治良好的象征。例如,甫于去年底获得香港会计师工会、上海证交所等多项企业管治卓越奖大奖的中国工商银行,在2006 年于上市时,就曾高调披露股东大会通过《关于董事、监事及高级管理人员责任险投保方案的议案》,工行将为此支付约148.6 万美元的保费,购买5000 万美元保额的董事责任保险。

问题二:购买董事责任保险,真的有益于公司绩效、创造股东价值吗?

早期的企业管治文献认为,提供董责险的保险公司为了避免投资者诉讼导致巨额赔偿,因此在承保前后会发挥企业监督的角色,确保受保企业的经营与讯息披露符合法律的要求。

然而,这两项企业管治机制真的有助于公司绩效和股价表现吗?财务、保险顶级学术期刊里,有不少相关的实证研究,结果却莫衷一是。有研究发现独立董事比例愈高的企业表现愈佳,却也有相反的研究结果;有研究发现购买董监事责任险保额愈高的企业表现愈佳,但一样也有相反的研究结果。就连台湾金管会也曾就独立董事有无发挥功能进行委外研究,结果也相当分歧。

上个月中,在高雄中山大学举办的「第18 届证券暨金融市场理论与实务研讨会」上,笔者与张世忠教授的论文「资讯透明度:董事独立性与董监事保险」(Sh ow Me the Information: Board Independence and D&OInsurance)侥倖荣获吴家禄最佳论文奖殊荣,研究目的就在解开企业管治制度的这两道谜:为何一些实证研究发现认为独立董事制度和董事责任保险有助于公司绩效,另一些研究却得出相反结论?

关键在于,独立董事的监督是否发挥效果,必须考量其诱因和监督成本。

而董责险的存在可能因法律风险降低,而弱化董事的监督诱因;但也可协助外部董事取得资讯,降低监督成本。董事的监督成本除了与自身监督的努力水平有关,也取决于公司的资讯透明度(或广义而言,如公司文化、领导特质等深层企业管治的因素)。

透过理论推导,该论文证明了存在一个资讯透明度参数的临界值。在该临界值以下的企业,例如资讯透明度几近为零的企业,投保董监事保险无益于降低董事监督成本,只降低了其法律责任风险,因此,董事监督的努力程度会降低,从而降低企业价值与股东权益。对此等企业而言,要求再高比例的独立董事,也无益于企业价值的提升。

资讯透明度高降监督成本

相反地,资讯透明度高的企业,投保责任保险有利于董事会监督经营者,降低监督成本,因此提高监督的努力程度,从而提高企业价值与股东权益。对这些企业而言,投保责任险与提高董事会独立性,都有益于企业价值的提升。

该篇论文不但在学术上回答了财务、保险实证文献里的谜团,也对企业管治监管政策有重要启示。政府行政、立法部门和金融监管单位在就企业管治委外研究时,不应只专注企业管治的表面指标,而忽略了企业管治的深层因素。

因为,表面性质的企业管治规范,例如独立董事的比例、责任险投保要求等,容易流于肤浅的表面功夫。既忽略两种治理机制的互动关系,也忽略资讯透明、开放沟通等企业文化的深层因素,才是企业管治风险与成败的关键!

香港中文大学财务系副教授叶家兴

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19. 美金融危机政府监管机构有责
信报财经新闻 2011-01-27 国际金融, P19

美国金融危机调查委员会的报告草稿表示,金融危机是可以避免的,并批评政府和大型金融机构都有份导致危机爆发。委员会把金融危机归咎于监管机构、政客、金融企业和信贷评级机构,指出监管机构未能充分监管金融市场和金融企业的风险管理,企业管治手法差劲,政府则未能准备好应付过度借贷变成坏账所造成的余波。这份报告由美国金融危机调查委员会中6 名民主党委员撰写,4 名共和党委员因不同意报告内容,将另行发表2 份报告。

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20. 黑天鹅事件「炁住抢」
信报财经新闻 2011-01-27 专家之言, P27

近年国际金融市场流行一句术语── 「黑天鹅事件」,意指那些百年难得一遇的罕见事件。正因「黑天鹅事件」可能出现,投资股票必须留有一手,亦即本栏常说的「不过度投资」,常留现金在手。

股票是一个不公平的市场,谁人说公平,只是睁着眼睛说瞎话,例如超级大户有钱有货,随时可以买起或踢散一只股份;公司的主事人掌握有关公司的资讯,比街外人快一步,要在股票市场先行一步,易如反掌,并非任何世间的「内幕买卖条例」可以杜绝。

自从上世纪八十年代开始,衍生工具大量发展,任何东西也可拿来一赌,而且电脑的科技日新月异,于是聪明脑袋便设计出种种新的投资产品,推出市场。

此类产品复杂到「爆煲」之后,发行者毋须负责,买入者输钱后,无从追究。

如此这般,设计及发售者岂非等同设下骗局,请投资者入甕?近年引起轩然大波的某种债券,是否属于此类产品?

作为投资者最好守住一个戒条,不明白的产品就不买,无论是谁人推出也不可轻信。此外,有了程式买卖后,大户可利用电脑操控指数升跌,附以大量衍生产品,彼辈借着某些重大政经事件,经精心策划后可「踩散」股市,如果监管机构不立刻介入,彼辈所能获得的利润分分钟数以百亿美元计。

1987 年10 月的美国股灾,是此类「大屠杀」事件的首次出现。去年某天,美国道指在个多小时内暴泻近千点,犹幸监管当局立刻介入,才不致酿成第二次股灾。

非常事件的出现,本人觉得绝非偶然,亦非人为错误(按错掣),而是有力可通神的人士拟食「大茶饭」,要取走若干百亿美元,甚至若干千亿美元。

市场上的监管机构应该知道潜伏危机,否则美国政府不会一再修改金融法例。

但作为散户,最紧要懂得自卫,投资股票是与鳄共舞,非常凶险,因而必须谨守一些投资守则。

(散户投资之道.四十五)张公道

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21. 各指标未确认恒指回升
信报财经新闻 2011-01-27 信研Dashboard, P22

● 市场宽度:股价高于50 天线比例跌至46%,3 天线高于18 天线比例跌至32.9%,超买比例跌至18.9%。各市宽继续下跌,大市未能确认恒指回升,短线市宽接近超卖支持区。【图1】

● 行业表现:恒指反弹54 点,25 个板块却只有11 个回升,升跌股份比例为0.73,显示下跌股份数目占多数,未能确认恒指上升。弱势汽车板块升幅明显,长城(2333)升6.2%,东风集团(489)及广汽(2238)均升逾4%。【图2】

● 百大市值表:51 只股价高于50 天线,47 只股价下跌,3只升穿及4 只跌穿50 天线。综合企业股表现较佳,和黄(013)升2.1%,九仓(00 4)升1.5%,太古A(019)升1.2%,中信泰富(267)升3.1%,华润创业(291)升1%。

● 异动股:20 只异动股有11 只上升。何鸿燊家族股权争议令澳博(880)股价大成交下跌4.9%收市。目前澳博于50 天线获得初步支持,虽未跌穿去年9 月向上伸延的上升趋势,但技术走势有隐忧。

● 技术分析:本栏1 月15 日提及的嘉华国际(173)出现异动,去年底跌至上升及下降趋势线交汇支持位反弹回升,昨日以大成交于20 天线上裂口上升,料后市重拾升轨。【图3】

● 麦嘉华分析,今年1 月大部分股市无法超越去年11 月及12 月高位,而美股目前水平已十分超买,中国股市尤其疲弱更令人感到不对劲,相信未来3 个月新兴市场有机会下跌20 至30%,标普也有10%调整。麦嘉华建议将资金转投国库债券和美元。

● GMO 指出,自从1964 年以来,股市在总统任期第三年都会显著上升,一般升幅比通胀高23%,例如标普500 指数截至今年1 月12 日较去年10 月已上升13%,细价股罗素2000 升幅更达19%。粗略计算,只要利率在下届总统选战前仍处于低水平,未来8 个月标普应不难再升9%。【图4】

● GMO 补充,要小心牛市是在「借来的时间」,GMO 数据分析标普500 实质只值900 点,部分板块更特别超买。

● 中国主要小麦生产省份山东遭受40 年来最严重的旱灾,华北及华东亦面对不寻常旱情,影响食品价格急升。

● 中国联通(762)透露,联通iPhone 3GS 8GB 已完成一级备货,春节前及春节期间,用户可在全国联通营业厅及联通合作商购机或办理合约计划优惠购机。

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22. 美国工业露曙光
信报财经新闻 2011-01-27 国际脉象, P36

美国工业股的前景虽然还未至于大放光明,但看来却远比两年前乐观。

杜邦(Dupont)、3M 及通用电气(General Electric),还有铝材制造商美国铝业(Alcoa)及美国钢铁(US Steel),2010 年无论收入及盈利都见增长。下周公布业绩的陶氏化学(Dow Chemical)预料将延续这股势头;就连两年前裁掉超过2万员工的推土机制造商Caterpillar 也承认,以往的决定太草率,随着订单改善,公司正增聘人手。

经济专家肯定非常高兴。生产实物的企业──与主要在二级市场营运的金融机构不同──录得增长,显示实体经济正按轨道推展。部分企业甚至开始改变经营策略,不再像过去两年般只顾着生存。杜邦以58 亿美元收购丹麦食品成分公司Danis co,虽然或会令明年盈利减少一成,但却标志着公司再次订立长远大计,实在令人欣慰。

虽然如此,投资者必须冷静,不要因为最新的业绩表现而得意忘形。投入成本特别是能源开支上涨,有可能扼杀行业日后的增长。能源是工业企业成本基础中的重要部分,约三分一的制铝成本及五分一的炼钢成本直接与能源扯上关系。事实上,过去12 个月,大部分金属以及石油、电力和聚丙烯(polypropylene,不少塑胶的主要材料)的成本已经上升;与此同时,天然气价格已从2009 年的低位拾级而上。

若经济增长步伐加快,进一步推高能源及投入材料的价格,工业公司把更高成本转嫁给客户的能力将受到考验。环球经济走下坡时,这些客户二话不说就减少需求,企业舵手实在不愿在如此短时间内再次考验它们。

THE LEX

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23. 头脑清醒跌市不惊
信报财经新闻 2011-01-27 投资者日记, P23

投资真的是一场心理战,很多人认为敌人是市场,但其实最大的敌人就是自己。面对这样的市况,如何做到跌不惊,升不喜的最高境界,确实不容易;然而,这种反覆市况,也是最磨灭人心,股价跌下来,往往教人心慌,股价上升时,亦令人有追买的冲动。

要做到跌也不惊,除了清楚知道自己买入每只股票的原因之外,还要衡量可以承受的风险。相信我,如果你是高价追买,或者盲目地听股评家推介便买入;当你遇到买入后股价一跌,你就会很惊慌,因害怕继续持有股价会一跌再跌,卖了后又怕股价即升。

昨日恒指上升54 点,成交金额只有682.13 亿元,但财Q 一直强调,指数是一回事,大市底蕴可能是另一回事。长话短说,机会与风险, 「信号」都有提示。

首先,成交虽低,但上升股份都有成交配合,昨日提及过的腾讯(700)、中信泰富(267),以至联通(762)都是配合成交上升的成分股。即使是国企指数成分股中,即日成交比率较高的股份,大部分股价都录得升幅, 例如中国建材(332 3) 、中石化(386)。

再按即日成交比率来看,成交增加的大型股、中型股当中,升跌参半;相反,在小型股身上,成交增加的股份,大部分都录得升幅。然而,要在这些小型股身上赚钱,也不是容易的事,特别是「信号」并非太明显。

其次,汽车股上升。除了长城汽车(2333)属异数外,汽车股都是弱股中的弱股,弱势一直未改。然而,我想特别指出吉利(175)、东风(489)作为例子,两者长线短线「信号」都属弱势;但大家可以留意技术走势,两者股价早前分别测试250 天平均线水平,亦逐步在此水平找到支持。当然,目前两只股票的走势仍然属于弱势,但经过这两日回升后,股价能否继续企稳,而出现转势?目前仍是未知之数,但不失是一个留意对象,毕竟汽车股也是今年盈利前景获看好的六个板块之一。

最后, 组合持股中航科工(2357) 股价上升4.12%,收市价刚好升穿50 天平均线。市场有些资金在追落后,甚至给予一些落后股重新评价,至于中航科工能否扭转弱势,拭目以待。

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24. 下月起新股可免派招股书
信报财经新闻 2011-01-27 上市公司, P09

今年2 月1 日起,上市发行人只要符合有关条件,在派发认购申请表时,可以毋须一併附上招股书( 「混合媒介要约」)。新措施并非强制性,港交所(388)致函保荐人,表示基于环保的原则,鼓励他们考虑采用。

证监会和港交所于去年11 月已公布新措施,港交所上市科主管狄勤思(Mark Dickens)日前致函各保荐人,采用混合媒介要约方式进行公开发售活动并非强制规定,但选用的发行人可因此减少大量印刷招股章程而浪费纸张。

根据《公司条例》,除非与招股章程一起派发,否则禁止发出任何申请表格。

下月1 日开始,只要发行人符合相关条件,例如招股前发出公告交待会采用新措施、在哪里可取得电子版的招股章程等,派发申请表时,便毋须一併附上招股章程。

宏桥不能选择新措施

据了解,不少保荐人感到新措施仍有模糊的地方,为免影响上市计划,会建议发行人沿用同时派发申请表和招股章程的做法。有市场人士举例说,监管机构要求,发行人仍须在收款银行指定分行、中央结算的存管处服务柜枱等,准备印刷本的招股章程,让公众免费领取,惟没有说明放置有关文件的数量。

新股中国宏桥(1378)的招股时间横跨新、旧制度的实施时间,然而不能选择新措施。

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25. 电视广播易手「旧」媒体渐式微
信报财经新闻 2011-01-27 要闻社评, P02

一直在市场找寻买家的电视广播有限公司昨天终于易手,以商人陈国强为首的财团购入了电视广播主席邵逸夫拥有的百分之二十六股权,财团成员还包括台资商人王雪红,以及一家美资私募基金;交易完成之后,新的财团控制电视广播不多于三成股权,这家有四十多年历史的传媒王国正式易主。

电视广播放盘求售的消息早在两年前开始,期间内地房地产企业碧桂园主席杨国强曾经愿意斥一百亿元收购,最终无功而还,原因一说是国内开始打压房地产,内房企业资金开始紧绌,应付不了要支付一百亿元现金收购的要求;另一说是杨国强背景为内地商人,即使符合电视条例「合资格人士」的规限,但始终跟香港的渊源不深,最后交易告吹。到了去年九月,恒基地产主席李兆基的儿子李家杰出价九十亿元洽购,后来也无法达成协议,据「市场消息」透露,电视广播副主席方逸华坚持卖价为一百亿元,且要现金交易,九十亿元因未「到价」,故此未能成功。除此之外,传出有意洽购电视广播的人士还包括内地企业阿里巴巴主席马云,及复星国际主席郭广昌。

电视广播有限公司是在六七年十一月成立,是本地首家商营免费无线电视台,创立初期,由于香港仍然是一个广播媒体少,娱乐事业仍然单调的地方,电视广播很快就成为普罗市民的主要资讯和娱乐节目来源,无线电视的节目和艺员、歌星均深入民心,企业的盈利丰厚。电视广播在八四年一月上市,八五年成为恒生指数成分股。

在本地免费电视市场,电视广播长期以来都处于一台独大的「实际垄断」地位,对手亚洲电视虽然经过多次改革,但仍然无法动摇电视广播遥遥领先的位置;到了八十年代至九十年代,香港经济起飞,媒体趋向更多元化发展,政府批出有线收费牌照,令电视广播开始面对实力较强的竞争对手,而一九九一年政府决定禁止电视台播放烟草广告,削弱了免费电视一个重要收入来源,无线一台独大以及盈利丰厚的现状一去不返。翻看电视广播过去几年的业绩,清楚显示其盈利高峰期已过、业绩增长缓慢的困局︱︱以股东应占溢利计,○五年电视广播盈利上升百之六十四点一,表面上看增幅强劲,但实际上利润是由上一年度的七百一十九万,上升至一千一百八十万元,属于「低位反弹」;○六年度盈利上升幅度大大放缓,升幅仅得百分之一;其后几年,业绩仍然未见明显改善,○七年度盈利升幅为百分之七,○八年更减少百分之十七,○九年减少百分之十五。从业绩表现来看,电视广播已是疲态毕露、盈利不前的一家媒体企业,这也许是年事已高的邵逸夫爵士无心恋战的原因。

以电视广播来说,要扭转劣势,不外乎两大途径,一是把业务多元化,一是把经营地域扩大;可是,受制于电视牌照的规限,以及禁止跨媒体经营的限制,电视广播可以多元化的方式都已做尽,而与此同时,政府决定在今年再发出两张免费电视牌照;按政府的计划,日后不会限制免费电视牌照的数目,即过去以「大气电波为宝贵资源故此免费电视牌不会多发」的政策宣告结束,意味着电视广播未来会遭遇更多竞争对手。竞争大,而电视进入数码年代又需要庞大投资,高清制作开支比过去平均要高出百分之十,对电视台经营构成额外负担。地域方面,电视广播的香港业务仍然占整体业务六成二,要进军内地市场困阻重重,加上其他新媒体在年青一代中急速成为主流,「旧式」的免费广播已成明日黄花。

电视广播易手,是本地媒体业一个时代的终结;旧去新来,随着新媒体冒起,如果政府解除过时的跨媒体限制,香港的媒体业将会发展得更多姿多采A

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26. 商品跌至支持位有望反弹
信报财经新闻 2011-01-27 滙金商品, P29

自上星期中国公布经济及通胀数据后,投资市场便一直担心人民银行将收紧银根,成为商品市场开始调整的触发点,而最新数据显示英国经济录得负增长,再加上印度为了压抑通胀而加息,大大加重商品市场出现回吐的压力,多只周期性商品价格更下挫至跌穿重要的技术性支持位,顿时导致商品市场一片风声鹤唳。

现在距离春节刚好还有一星期,究竟人民银行会否于这段时间加息,相信很快便会揭晓,但笔者的大胆预测,便是不会加息。近日人民币的拆息明显抽升,反映资金流通性紧张,于这个时间进一步调高息率收紧银根,恐怕将导致拆息市场大幅波动,对实体经济构成较大影响。

内地或春节后才加息

此外,春节始终是国内其中一个消费旺季,于这段时间加息也有可能抑压零售销售,与经济转型的国策背道而驰。况且,中国12 月通胀率回落,笔者认为是一个正面讯号,反映收紧银根及行政干预正在发挥作用,虽然1 月份通胀将因农历年因素而再度回升,但相信人民银行不会因应季节性变化,而迫切落重药加息。

由于现时物价上升主要由商品及食品价格上升推动,加息所能发挥的作用有限,反而继续以出售库存及增加进口等行政手段,或透过人民币升值降低进口成本,可能更加直接有效。当然,加息肯定是控制通胀上升的手段之一,但即使加息,较大机会是春节假期过后才会实行。

至于印度加息,更加只是淡友反击的借口。印度央行于过去10 个月已经7 度调升息率,根本不是新鲜的事件,为什么成为触发投资及商品市场下跌的原因呢?

众所周知,印度通胀高企,印度央行正采取积极措施应对,而以最新12 月通胀率为8.43%,以及加息后的回购息率为6.5 厘计算,印度仍然出现负实质息率情况,加息根本是预期之内。

事实上,在一连串的加息后,印度通胀率也由去年4 月的11%显著回落,反映收紧货币政策正发挥一定作用,再加上选举临近及工业生产有放慢迹象,笔者颇为质疑印度央行仍会像去年般积极地收紧货币政策及流通性,若通胀率最终一如印度央行预期为7%,那么加息空间似乎又不是很大,对投资市场的冲击也会有限。

英国数据欠佳,的确对预期西方经济稳步复苏的投资者带来当头棒喝,是周期性商品价格出现回吐的较合理解释。现时好友的寄望,便是欧美两地的货币政策不会有重大变动,在货币及财政政策上,继续支持商品价格上升。

欧美经济仍理想从近日公布的经济数据观察,笔者认为欧美两地的经济状况仍然理想,而周五公布的美国第四季经济增长数据,也颇大机会较预期优胜,应可改善投资市场的气氛。

众多商品价格于近日调整过后,已处于技术性的关键水平,当中伦敦期铜9300 美元是一个重要关口,失守将下试9000 关口,而守稳则会形成横行区形态,可能再挑战9750 美元附近。纽约期油87 美元是重要关口,因技术上形态出现疑似双顶,短期内未能收复有可能下试83 美元水平。黄金价格跌至1320 美元横行区底部反弹,相信好友将于这个区域全力防守,因一旦跌穿将触发金价下试1200 美元。

亚达盟环球期货副总裁潘志伟

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27. 澳博连跌两日 市值蒸发70亿
信报财经新闻 2011-01-27 要闻, P04

赌王何鸿燊家族争产风波,对旗下赌业旗舰澳博(880)股价构成压力。澳博股价昨天再挫4.9%,收报13.12 元。自澳博控股公司澳娱股权转让消息曝光后,澳博的股价连跌两日,累积跌幅8.93%,澳博的市值因此蒸发近70 亿元。

以昨天收市计,澳博市值约717 亿元。

两日累跌8.93%

虽然澳博前晚发出通告表示,母公司澳娱股东,即何鸿燊家庭成员间之变动,对于澳博的整体拥有权并无重大影响,而公司管理或策略性方向亦将没有重大变动。不过,澳博昨天复牌后,仍然未能止跌,股价一度急跌近9%,至12.58元,收市跌幅收窄至4.9%,成交金额增加至15.35 亿元。

多家证券商相继发表报告评论澳娱股权之争对澳博的影响。花旗银行发表报告指出,股权之争一向为澳博股价的阴影,但是何鸿燊昨天现身确认澳娱的股权转让给三房陈婉珍及二房五子女的决定,与澳博1 月24 日通告中的内容一致,花旗希望目前关于股权谁属的问题可以釐清。花旗维持对澳博买入的投资评级,目标价维持16.5 元,并建议投资者趁今次股价调整吸纳澳博。

券商意见不一

摩通则表示,何氏家族在澳娱股权的纠纷虽然对澳博营运影响有限,但澳娱最终控制权及对管理潜在影响,以及中介人的连续性,为短期股价不明朗因素。

摩通表示,在最坏情况,若管理层变动,估计澳博核心资产值为每股11.3 元。该行维持对澳博增持评级,目标价17.8 元。

高盛指出,虽然何鸿燊持有的澳娱股权安排有争议,但认为事件无论最终结果如何,相信最终控股权仍会落在何氏家族的手上,相信事件对澳博的影响较低,并重申对其「买入」评级及维持目标15 元。

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28. 宏桥盈利突急升赢龙头中铝 首只兔年百亿新股 今招股入场费5000 元
信报财经新闻 2011-01-27 股市, P08

首只在兔年挂牌的新股宏桥集团(1378)今天起招股,招股价介乎7.1 元至9.9 元,每手入场费约4999.9 元,最多集资172 亿元,亦是今年首只集资过百亿的新股【表】。宏桥是中国第五大铝产品制造商,业务与国企中铝(2600)相似,但过往经营数据远较中铝为佳。

受氧化铝和原铝价格急挫以及电价成本上升,09 年中铝业绩见红,而去年业绩也仅能做到转亏为盈。相比之下,宏桥从单一供应商高新铝电采购氧化铝和电力,有分析员表示,宏桥去年首三季经营数据却好得出奇。

分析员对盈利数据表质疑

宏桥持续经营业务07 年至09 年的净利润分别为9.04亿元(人民币.下同)、2.84 亿元及5.8 亿元;毛利率分别为30.8%、6.1%及10.4%。惟公司2010 年首三季盈利突飞猛进,毛利率急升至38.3%,净利润达29.65 亿元;中铝母公司中铝集团去年全年盈利也仅27 亿元。有部分分析员对此感到质疑。宏桥行政总裁兼执行董事张波昨天表示,未来有信心维持近40%的毛利率水平。

不过,值得注意的是,07 年至09 年创业集团是宏桥唯一的氧化铝供应商,而宏桥大股东张士平持有创业约33.72%股权。其后,由山东皱平工会委员会间接持股的高新铝电向创业收购氧化铝生产设施,并由2010 年起向宏桥供应氧化铝及电力。在氧化铝价逐渐攀升的去年首三季,宏桥的氧化铝采购价仅为每吨1590 元,较市场价2326 元便宜逾三成。

被问及创业集团为何将资产转让、停止向公司提供氧化铝,张波解释说,创业集团是魏桥纺织(2698)的大股东,希望专注于纺织服装行业,故向高新铝电出售氧化铝生产设备。

张波又强调,虽然高新铝电未来仍是公司唯一的氧化铝及电力供应商,但公司已与大型氧化铝公司签订备忘录,有备用原材料选择。

此外,公司逾八成收入来自销售液态铝合金产品,受限于特殊运输要求,该产品的下游用户全集中在山东省皱平县。张波表示,公司液态铝合金的运输距离介乎500 米至10 公里,未来可能增加该产品的销售比重。

哈国铜矿韩厨具拟上市

另据外电引述消息指出,已在英国上市的哈萨克斯坦铜矿公司Kazakhmys PLC 计划上半年来港进行第二上市,集资介乎5 亿至6 亿美元;花旗和中金负责安排上市事宜。若一切顺利的话,Kazakhmys 将成为首家在港上市的哈萨克斯坦公司。此外,耳熟能详的韩国塑料厨具生产商乐扣乐扣(Lock & Lock)也有望来港挂牌。

据路透引述消息指出,去年初在韩国上市的乐扣乐扣计划分拆中国业务在港上市,最多集资5 亿美元,法巴和高盛担任保荐人。今天挂牌的中慧国际(1143)暗盘价造好,昨天开市报1.3 元,较招股价1.2 元升8.3%;其后升幅收窄,收盘报1.23 元,升幅达2.5%,每手(2000 股)赚60 元。

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29. 滙控的管治折让
信报财经新闻 2011-01-27 国际脉象, P36

滙控(005)行政总裁欧智华(Stuart Gulliver)继续交税给英国的决定,应该只有英国皇家税务和海关总署才会关心。对于滙控股东而言,不管他要留在伦敦还是搬到香港,最重要的是他拿定主意,不要举旗不定。滙控过去一年半来来回回,百般折腾,从好的方面说是令人丢脸,从坏的方面说则具破坏性。

当欧智华的前任纪勤(Michael Geoghegan)宣布,将于2009 年9 月连同集团策略部十多名高层一同搬到香港时,滙控大肆渲染「世界经济重心的转移」。

内地分行扩展缓慢

世界经济重心的确有所转移,然而,尽管处处表现心系神州, 「大笨象」过去几年内地分行网络的扩张速度,却跟花旗集团(Citigroup)相差无几。外国银行去年占内地市场银行资产的总体份额相信少于2%,兼且持续萎缩。滙控在上海挂牌的大计更一直未能实现。

滙控搬迁行政总裁办公室的行动未能打开中国这座城堡,反而令管理层之间出现分歧。经过去年秋天的高层变动「大龙凤」后,19 人董事会其中5 名成员以及9名业务主管,如今均要掌管不熟悉的工作。对于一家以新兴市场为重点的银行来说,如今应该是业务腾飞的时候,但人事变动却令它处于不利位置。

估值落后于其他大银行

即使是糟透了的美国消费信贷业务(去年首9 个月亏损19 亿美元,平均总资产840 亿美元),信贷损失拨备的下跌速度也比净利息收入快。不过,尽管证券行同声同气,试图把滙控的股价推高──建议「吸纳」的券商数目是「沽售」的13 倍;然而,以市账率而论,以市值计全球二十大银行中超过一半的估值仍比滙控高。这除了因为种种不同原因外,也是管治问题造成的「管治折让」。欧智华的当务之急,是消除这种折让。

THE LEX

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30. 四太反败为胜 赌王重召御用律师再提「抢劫」
信报财经新闻 2011-01-27 独眼新闻, P12

赌王何鸿燊千亿身家引爆的家产争夺战,三房人由周一起,在七十二小时内合演一幕「何爸身家何家分」,直至昨早,赌王于三太陈婉珍家中开腔宣读声明,似要为自己的财产分配一锤定音,并要为一场争产家丑画上句号。

这场争产战,由二房与三房联手揭开序幕,成功从赌王手中获得其赌业王国心脏澳娱的股权,而未获「分饼」的四太梁安琪,则一直盘算如何力挽狂澜。正当外界以为二房及三房已成了大赢家之际,老纪就收到风,事件的最新发展,绝对离奇过「巴黎铁塔反转再反转」。

据悉,昨午跟四太一同离开三太寓所的赌王,在昨晚已拍下另一录影短片,当中声明未有解雇律师高国峻(Gordon Oldham)外,更再次「反口」指两房所为是「抢劫(this is robbery)」,令他的财产分配势继续有排拗,以至赌王想安心踏入兔年,势成泡影。

一哥指女性车厢有助遏非礼

灰天传寒意赤子迎春节

农历新年,已是悄悄走过来了。在有二千七百年历史的山西北部平遥名城外,一片灰白得予人寒意的天空,一座黑沉得有点模糊的城楼,令这位小女孩的一身橙红,更是夺目。

昨天,是农历十二月二十三日,平遥民间俗称的「小年」,小女孩就要像香港长洲太平清醮一样,亲身演绎当地超过四百年的「背棍」表演传统:精心古式装扮,由大人顶着巡游四周。

传说,背棍源于每逢元宵,平遥乡郊的大人,为让孩子看清城中各式花灯,纷纷将他们顶在肩上,好让他们看得更远更清;结果历史就要跟这小女孩开玩笑,如今得成为他人小年节庆欣赏的对象。

可就在不知的远处,小女孩已是看得出神,他人的目光,也再不在意了。(新

华图片)

何鸿燊忽指从未解雇高国峻何鸿燊过去两日风尘仆仆,先是前晚在二房女儿超凤及超蕸的陪同下,前往三太陈婉珍的寓所召开家庭会议,最后由三太出面宣读声明,表明何家近日风波「是时候要停」,又指「屋企的事,闩埋门一家人自己解决」,最后决定撤消对律师高国峻及其律师行的委任,三太并透露,赌王会在该处留宿。

正当外界相信事件可暂告一段落之际,被免职的高国峻昨早却继续声称,自己仍代表赌王,指自己被解除委任的消息由第三者宣布,对方又涉及其中利益,质疑其可靠性,又指将会在跟何生见面后,如常进行有关的法律程序。此外,英国《金融时报》更引述高国峻指,持有赌王要求代追回财产录影片段。

眼见未能叫停律师收口,赌王于是亲自开腔,三太就在昨早安排了一家电视台、一间本地杂志及一间报馆进入其寓所, 「直击」赌王宣读声明,从片段所见,赌王在三太及低胸上阵的超云左右相伴下,在镜头前宣读一段预先写在一张大纸板上的文字: 「最近的风波弄得自己不开心,屋企人亦不开心,因为我这十年来,我好锡我屋企人,未试过采取你告我我告你……」赌王同时再次确认早前的股权分配安排,又感激高国峻的协助,同时重申撤消对高的委任安排。

除三太及超云外,当时陪同赌王的,其中尚有来自二房的三名女儿超琼、超凤及超蕸,三人虽然未有在片段中一同露面,但镜头仍清楚拍到三人当时一样身在现场。

事实上,当赌王就如何分配身家开腔后,争产战似已再无悬念,及至昨午近二时,四太梁安琪带同女儿超盈驱车直驶入三太大宅欲会见赌王,却在屋外呆等近半小时,最后因不果而离开,外界更以为四太在争产战中已成为最后输家,然而,四太于半小时后折返三太寓所时,事情却又再起峰回路转的变化。

声称约了赌王午膳的四太,在首次求见赌王不果后接受传媒电话访问,表示由于赌王昨日较攰故要睡觉休息,因此才先行离开,惟当四太于三时左右重回大宅时,最后不单成功与赌王见面,更与他一同乘坐七人车离开。从照片所见,戴上厚厚冷帽的赌王看来心情不俗,一度咧嘴而笑,至于在赌王身边的四太,就同样喜上眉梢,似对自己能在败中求胜颇具把握。消息人士就向老纪透露,赌王在离开三太家后,返回自己位于浅水湾道一号的家,更在晚上拍下另一段录像,当中主要提及从未解雇律师高国峻(I never fire you),同时再次「反口」,指二房及三房提出有关澳娱的股权分配是「抢劫(this is robbery)」,实行以真人示范如何「今日的赌王打倒昨日的赌王,然后晚上的赌王打倒早上的赌王」,更令这一场「宫廷内斗」,令人对谁是谁非完全摸不着头脑。

安排各房股权妙到毫巅

事实上,三房争产战单看表面已够多姿多采,但如有留意暂时所公布的利益分配,就更显得当中安排实甚具心思。须知道,何鸿燊的赌业王国幅员甚广,但就以澳门旅游娱乐股份有限公司(澳娱)为核心旗舰,另外包括有信德集团(242)、掌管澳门赌场业务及在港上市的澳博(880),以及同样经营休閒、博彩及娱乐业务的新濠国际(200)等,其中新濠早交由二房的何猷龙负责打理,而信德集团亦早交予超琼、超凤及超蕸三姊妹营运。

至于澳博方面,由于早前四太梁安琪已获赌王把其中7.03%股权转让,本月初,澳博更宣布,由于主席何鸿燊仍在康复中,故何鸿燊建议提名四太出任公司常务董事之职位,外界因此早已视四太为澳博这个市值逾700 亿王国的未来「揸fit人」。

然而,澳博虽好,但说到底,始终澳娱才是澳博的控股公司,故能掌控澳娱即变相可主宰澳博,故澳娱之股权自然成了必争之产业。至于现时的安排,赌王把其拥有的31.655%澳娱股权(以Lanceford 拥有)一分为二,分别给与二房及三房(又以三房占逾半而有话事权),其实连同信德所拥有的澳娱股份,二房实拥有澳娱最多的股权,但要取得决策权,却必要与三房共同合作。

其实,赌王二房的子女早已陆续接班其王国的业务,现时此举,遂令三房人在澳娱及澳博间形成微妙的关系,既可避免令二房进一步坐大,同时又可让其继续发展赌业王国,而于赌场营运部分,就交由四太掌控的澳博负责,二房及三房又在澳娱内成了一个互相「平衡」的局面,安排可谓「情理兼备」。

至于赌王长房至今分毫未分,消息指长房已跟四房连为一线,赌王长房女儿何超贤晚上就发表声明,指父亲是一位公平、正义、诚实的人,不相信父亲不留下任何东西予母亲一家,父亲曾说过及曾公开表示想将财产平分予四房人,故认为其他太太的行动及她们发表的声明,并不符合父亲意愿,亦令人非常难堪及伤感情。

霍震霆扮演「澳娱黄雀」

何家各房提早爆发争产风波,令人不得不更佩服北京为保澳门大局稳定,所作关键人事部署的高瞻远瞩。霍震霆去年八月突高调回朝澳娱董事局,出任澳博执董,代表霍英东基金会重新积极「监察」何鸿燊赌业王国业务,就是要在尊重何家掌控澳娱业务的同时,发挥微妙平衡的角色,确保何家内斗,也不能搞乱澳门社会经济。

老纪此前已讲过,以霍氏家族跟中央建立逾六十年的千丝万缕关系,澳门赌业收入对霍氏家族又九牛一毛,霍震霆回朝澳娱,根本是北京要为「后何鸿燊时代」的澳门局势做准备:何家内部万一内乱,至触动澳门社会经济动盪的地步时,可透过霍震霆及时介入,将影响尽快减到最低。在内地也有不少生意的澳娱另一股东郑裕彤,「功能」亦可作如是观。

现时霍英东基金会与郑裕彤,合共持澳娱约百分之三十六点五七股权;若依澳博周一宣布的何鸿燊让出澳娱股权版本,何家二房及三太分别持澳娱百分之二十七点四五五与百分之十六点二三七股权。若二房及三太和和气气,又顾全北京要确保澳门稳定的大局,两者合共持有百分之四十三点六九二股权,便好继续当澳娱最大股东。

万一二房与三太其中一方,以至双方联手有任何动作忤逆﹁上﹂意,中央一声令下要霍英东基金会与郑裕彤联合行动,只须招揽跟何鸿燊素有不和的十姑娘何婉琪以其百分之七点三股权支持,合共即已有百分之四十三点八七,再配合中央或澳门特区政府动用影响力,动员其他约四十个小股东归边,至少已足强势跟对方周旋;更不用说随局势演变,共同支持二房或三太其中「听话」的一方,压制「不听话」的另一方。

1句到尾上任未足一个月的警务处处长曾伟雄,昨

天先后到立法

会和召开记者会,简介去年本港治安情况。保育人士和清拆菜园村的港铁职员冲突时在场警员袖手旁观,与中联办示威警力安排,都成为议员和记者的发问焦点。

曾伟雄早上在立法会就菜园村冲突发言时表示,警方处理游行及示威时,未必每一宗都尽善尽美,令人以为他对警员未有阻止冲突表歉意。不过,他下

午在记者会上

解释,当天菜园村内没有示威区,示威人士活动范围太大,甚至不在警方视线范围内,故日后会检讨安排,好好控制人群,果断执法。警方的示威区,以往常被批不但范围小,而且离抗议对象太远,新一哥看来无意改变做法,保育人士和警方冲突,看来日后还是没完没了。

金针集 陈国强凭乜冧掂六婶﹖江泽民金句「闷声发大财」,可谓在静静地入主TVB 的「壳王」陈国强身上再一次应验。简单讲,正是: 「李家杰明修栈道,陈国强暗渡陈仓!」(当然还可以加上「国强」始终胜于「家杰」)。

叫得做「壳王」,陈国强的强项自是收购空壳公司,执靓盘数之后,以较高价出售给买家。套用于TVB,基本手法其实不变,只是若要成事,首先要接受「妹仔大过主人婆」(即是地皮贵过广播)这个盘口,同时要找到乐意接走「妹仔」的财主,然后才有望执靓电视业务这个「主人婆」,终而做到善价而沽。

市传没有一百二、三十亿元,六叔六婶绝对不会出售邵氏兄弟所拥有的26%TVB 股权,但以TVB 市值201 亿元计算,26%不过值52 亿元,另外的七、八十亿元显然就是六叔六婶心目中,清水湾电视城的地皮价值(虽然市传只值30 亿元)。

而所谓的「妹仔大过主人婆」,就是地皮的叫价(七、八十亿元)比电视业务的现值(52 亿元)还要高。由此路进,对「妹仔」有兴趣而又财雄势大者,环顾香港,就只有几大地产发展商,而恒基大少李家杰之所以打退堂鼓,有理由相信他认为「清水湾妹仔」不值那个价钱(另外一个原因则是六婶坚持要留在管理层打骰)。如此类推,陈国强倾得成,意味他很大机会已经找到超劲发展商乐意一掷七、八十亿元,一意要把「清水湾妹仔」打造成「清水湾淑女」。

安顿好「清水湾妹仔」,即是可以把地皮和电视业务一分为二(甚或卖出地皮),余下的问题就是执靓「将军澳主人婆」。

这个问题其实不大。须知道,TVB 的电视业务在六婶的传统经营手法炮制下,每年大约都有10 亿元的利润,日后引入现代管理模式,业绩及市值相信都只会有增无减。更何况,还有htc「亲中台湾女首富」王雪红助阵呢(当然,王雪红入股,其中一个原因,肯定是为其大陆生意买「政治保险」)!

总之,未来一两年,TVB 盘数好大机会可以执到好靓,各位有閒钱就不妨买多几手511。

补遗:昨天笔者指「黄毓民根本没有在78 万元捐款那份新文件上签署作实,法律上毋须承担任何责任,要说有问题,都是黄毓民助手及选举事务处的问题」,陆羽大状则认为,黄毓民只要曾在选举开支文件的第一页签署,原则上已等于签署了整份文件,是以未必毋须承担任何责任也。

灰天传寒意赤子迎春节

农历新年,已是悄悄走过来了。在有二千七百年历史的山西北部平遥名城外,一片灰白得予人寒意的天空,一座黑沉得有点模糊的城楼,令这位小女孩的一身橙红,更是夺目。

昨天,是农历十二月二十三日,平遥民间俗称的「小年」,小女孩就要像香港长洲太平清醮一样,亲身演绎当地超过四百年的「背棍」表演传统:精心古式装扮,由大人顶着巡游四周。

传说,背棍源于每逢元宵,平遥乡郊的大人,为让孩子看清城中各式花灯,纷纷将他们顶在肩上,好让他们看得更远更清;结果历史就要跟这小女孩开玩笑,如今得成为他人小年节庆欣赏的对象。

可就在不知的远处,小女孩已是看得出神,他人的目光,也再不在意了。(新

华图片)

一哥指女性车厢有助遏非礼香港,可能已成「风化之都」!去年全港共发生1448 宗非礼案,较09 年1318 宗上升130 宗,升幅达9.9%;其中,发生在港铁的非礼案升幅相当惊人,达148 宗,较09 年的112 宗增加32.1%。警务处处长曾伟雄指,港铁内非礼案增加,主要是由于女士提高警觉,加强举报所致。

老纪心想,若然举报多便令案件数目上升,那同属风化案的强奸案应该也一併上升,然而强奸案的数目却由09 年的136 宗下降至去年的112 宗,跌17.6%,看来「举报论」不足反映实情。老纪细心分析数据,发现不但公共交通工具的非礼案上升,涉及亲属和同学之间的非礼案亦有增加。

2010 年涉及亲戚的非礼案有98 宗,较09 年的65 宗急升50.8%;而涉及同学间非礼案件由09年的82 宗,升至去年的113 宗, 升幅亦有37.8%。非礼案亦呈年轻化,09 年因非礼而被捕的10-15 岁少年有137 人,到去年被捕少年已有168 人,升幅为22.6%;遭非礼人士中,15 岁以下的受害者由09 年的389 人,增至去年509 人,升幅达30.8%。从数据推演,老纪深觉不论家中、乘搭公共交通工具,甚至在学校内,未成年女孩被非礼的危机大矣。

执业性治疗师李伟仪分析,非礼既涉及性满足,亦有权力满足;而数据上升反映性依然是香港社会禁忌,以致男性不惜犯禁取得性满足,另外本港男性的自我形象低落,少数人动歪念以非礼满足权力慾。

面对来势汹汹的非礼狂潮,一哥表示会动员更多便衣探员巡逻,又承认设立女性车厢,让女士有独立乘车空间,对减少非礼罪有必然帮助,老纪看来港铁即使不听市民意见,都应考虑一哥专业判断。

iPhone或有新猷单挑八达通大家在日本可能都见过,有些人会拿着自己的手机,在收银机前拍一拍就可以付款。这类手机其实多是在外壳加装跟八达通相类的RFID 晶片,而最关你事的是, 相关装置稍后可能会在你的iPhone 或iPad 上出现。

据传,iPhone 5 及iPad 2,都会跟随Android的步伐, 内置简称NFC 的Near FieldCommunications 技术。有了这项技术,iPhone 或iPad 便可与任何四吋范围内支援NFC 的设备通讯。如此,用家即可在商店拿起iPhone,输入密码, 利用iTu nes 户口或Paypal 程式付款, 较

现时仍然要带信用卡出

街的VISA Paywave,更安全好用。

此外,巴士若能支援NFC,商户可借此向用iPhone 的乘客发出优惠券。乘客用起NFC 时,更会较蓝芽方便,不怕浪费电力或遭附近蓝芽黑客入侵。

可想而知,iPhone 5 及iPad 2 若落实上述功能,便可为苹果开拓新财源,既令苹果流动现金再增加,又能赚取可观交易费与代发电子优惠券服务等收入。Goog le 早前就是为开拓网上与流动广告等财源,积极在Android 手机引进NFC。看来,往后仍坚持使用其他手机的用家,只能看着不少着数白白溜走。

连环快拍

警破案率微跌2.8 百分点警务处昨天公布2010 年全年罪案数字,共有75965 宗,较09 年的77630 宗下跌2.1%;警方总体罪案破案率由09 年的45.6%微跌至42.8%。警务处处长曾伟雄表示,烦琐罪案数目较多,令刑侦人员难以破案,指毋须太迷信破案率。

警今年度招920 人

警务处副处长(管理)李家超表示,警队每年流失率约3%,计及退休及各种离职原因而离开的警员约有700 至800 人。而在10╱11 年度, 警方须招聘920 人,包括170 名见习督察及750 名警员,估计见习督察为每40 至50 名申请者选一,而警员申请者为15 至18 人选一。

虐老案件升14%

警方发现,去年虐老案件上升44 宗,至359 宗,升幅约为14%;警务处副处长(行动)邓甘满指,逾五成的案件,即204 宗属身体虐待案件,99 宗为诈骗财产,另有56宗精神虐待案件。逾七成的案件即268 宗,犯案者为长者的家人或前配偶。

跨部门处理精神病暴力案

基于去年发生多宗精神病患者干犯严重暴力,甚至凶杀案件,警方将联同劳工及福利局、医管局、社会福利署及房屋署,组成跨部门会议,建立机制处理精神有问题的病人,会议由食物及卫生局主持。

惩教署三月起招400 人惩教署去年共提供1247 个职业训练学额予在囚人士,可供约41%合资格成人犯供读。另预计在2011 至12 年度,该署有70 个惩教主任空缺和330 个二级惩教助理空缺。

猪流感夺27 岁女子性命一名因流感征状入住将军澳医院的二十七岁女病人,日前不治,其病毒测试结果确诊人类猪流感。她并非长期病患者。有关个案已转交死因裁判官跟进。另外一名十六岁青年亦确诊为猪流感个案,情况严重,现时在伊利沙伯医院儿科深切治疗部留医,须要用仪器帮助呼吸。

警破假卡党拘三东欧人

警方商业罪案调查科捣破一跨国伪造及行使礼品购物卡的集团,拘捕3 名二十二至三十岁罗马尼亚籍男子,检获总值逾200 万港元的欧罗及港元现金。警方是根据线报,在湾仔一酒店采取行动,相信仍有人在逃。

假卡党用时差犯案

警方分析指,假卡集团先在外国套取银行客户资料,印在假卡上,再到香港犯案,利用香港与欧洲之间的时差,在深夜时在本港银行柜员机,用礼品购物卡提款,每次大约1000 至2000 元,令事主不易察觉。

纪晓风keyman@hkej.com

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31. 和黄以商业信托分拆大解构
信报财经新闻 2011-01-27 经管智慧, P35

上周和黄宣布分拆旗下在中港的港口业务,以商业信托形式到星洲上市。全城哄动,有论香港没有让商业信托上市,是落后于人。

可能大家不明商业信托奥妙之处;商业信托非一独立法人或公司,其运作是全交给一信托经理人,但就无董事会制衡;要把不称职的信托经理人踢走,就非要有最少75%的信托单位持有人同意不可。换句话说,和黄原本在上市公司条例下,要拥有超过50%股权才可保证他对港口业务的控制权,现在远走星洲,改用商业信托形式上市套现,用一间全资附属公司自任信托经理,这就哪怕减持至25%,也能保我江山!但对小投资者的保障,就同时减低了。以此看,香港绝非落后,而是对投资者更有保障。

大幅减持套现仍保控制权

为何世上有这么多上市形式?这又是公司财务和管治课题。如按诺贝尔奖得主Modigliani 的Modigliani Miller Theorem,一间公司的价值或股价,只会受他的基本因素所影响。融资、上市形式和派息如何不是因素,除非当中有税项、交易费用等要考虑。近代理论就更把交易费用引伸至资讯不均的代理人难题,如大小股东的利益冲突。

不同上市方式,应是用来减低监察大股东滥权的成本,费用省了,监察容易,大股东不会乱来,公司业绩和市价自会提高。

打个比喻,我爱到诚哥的酒窖买酒,有日诚哥派息,回赠我万箱烈级法国红酒,我可一次过提走,也可选择每月拿一箱。如交通费用、储存地方等都不是问题,两者对我毫无分别。但如我每周都会饮一箱,当然是选前者;如家里地方浅窄,当然会选用寄存服务。

但还有一个问题,放在酒窖安全吗?诚哥不赖,但他下面的职员会是尽责的代理人吗?会否偷龙转凤,以水酒骗了我的好酒?会否不是自己的珍藏,就为求省电调高酒窖冷库温度?防盗措施又如何?那我就要每天监察,走到酒窖巡视一番了。

董事会组成小股东无权过问上市公司董事为大小股东的代理人,如他们表现不妥,集齐超过50%股权,就可将其轰之下台,管他是大股东还是老爷,大少定二少,但在星洲的商业信托法例,对不起,要75%。

和黄需要减债,需要新资金搞4G 和其他业务。港口业务是最赚钱的,分拆套现是为首选,但这也是会生金蛋的鸡,要保住控制权!在香港最多只可卖49.99%,去到星洲就算卖75%也不怕了。

你或会问,信托经理是公司,没有董事会吗?作为信托单位的持有人,我有权投选他们吗?对不起,不能,你只是商业信托的其中一个拥有者,不是那个信托经理的股东。那么,新加坡是个资本牛仔市场、大鳄乐园吗?也不是,那边的上市条例一样与香港差不多,对与大股东或董事等的关连交易、重大交易有限制,也要求信托经理公司的董事会内大多数的董事要独立于大股东。但当小投资者无权过问董事会的组成或踢走他们,而他们又是由和黄委任,情况就如我们前朝的委任议员和现在的功能组别议员一样,有冲突时,你猜他们会站在哪一边?

商业信托不同REIT

你又会问,为何有此商业信托形式上市?跟本港的地产信托(REIT)又有何不同?其实信托上市跟基金投资有相同之处,就是小投资者全信赖一个基金经理。

当然基金风险高得多,上市信托就像股票和基金的混合体,就如基金一样是投资在一些指定项目,免除营运一间公司的其他风险,令业绩直接反映在单位价上,不受其他因素左右。如和黄的3G 业务拖低股价,就不能全面反映港口业务的优势。

另一方面,对经理的运作也如上市公司在各关连交易、重大交易等有一样的监管,更直接反映股价是信托上市的第一个成立理念。

REIT 有规定每年派息不少于盈利的90%,借贷也不能大于总资产的45%,买卖物业也有限制。这就对小投资者有保障,也对喜欢收息者有利。但这设计就是适用于有强劲现金流,而又是成熟即低风险的项目,不用保留盈利作维修或再投资者。

也可说是公司管理层已找不到新的投资机会,或行业已再无增长空间,不如派高息让小投资者自己再找更好机会,更有效运用收入和资金,股价自会提高,这是第二个理念。

但商业信托如何?一、派息多少没有规定,虽然折旧成本等的非现金支出可不计入成本,即有亏损但有净现金流,也可派息。但派多少由经理全权决定,这就失去了当初派高息的意义;二、借贷多少也无限制,小投资者保障少了。没有借贷限制,就是不断需要资金、还在发展的项目或公司,也可以用商业信托来上市集资,跟REIT 的原意也相违背,既要冒上投资新项目风险,但在监察大股东和经理人方面,就被人废了武功!

为何不用回公司发股形式呢?还有,REIT 的经理人不能兼任信托人,即登记的资产拥有人,要另聘专业信托公司来多一层监察和保障。但商业信托就没有此要求!故就称为信托经理人。

最后我翻查资料,星洲的Cityspring 商业信托在07 年夏天,未经单位持有人同意,经理人就用了超过11 亿澳元买了澳洲的一条电缆Basslink,原来是大股东淡马锡投资全力推动,再经新加坡交易所有条件特许。事成后,在08 年才交给各小投资者在大会追认!真是匪夷所思,也只有在政府全力支持的商业信托下才可以如此!

迷宗

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32. A股反弹逾1%成交续减短期处弱势
信报财经新闻 2011-01-27 中国经济, P14

连续调整两日的沪深股市昨天迎来温和反弹,沪综指上涨1.17%或31 点,报2708 点,不过两市成交量进一步缩减至1155 亿元人民币,市场观望气氛浓厚。

分析认为,近期股市仍处弱势,后市料难大幅上攻。

新加坡市值最大的经纪商大华继显表示,与其他新兴市场及历史本益比水平相比,内地股市被严重低估。不过,由于通胀压力和政策收紧,近期股市可能不会上涨,下半年随着通胀触顶、收紧气氛得以缓和之后,可能出现全面上涨。

该行还表示,投资者可选择受益美国经济加速成长的企业股票,如航运股、航空股和出口导向的制造业股。

昨天金融、房地产等权重板块走势低迷。国务院常务会议昨天强调,进一步做好房地产调控工作,地产板块或再受压;交运设备、普通机械、建筑业等板块整体涨幅靠前,受三部门联合发布水利建设基金筹集和管理办法的消息影响,水利股涨幅居前。

内地传媒报道,财政部、发改委和水利部日前联合出台《水利建设基金筹集和使用管理办法》,明确中央和地方水利建设基金的来源及使用方向,分析人士称,困扰农村水利建设的资金困境有望纾解,水利行业或迎来黄金十年。

国金证券表示,当日两市为超跌反弹,后市反弹力度仍要看成交量和热点板块的持续性,但整体上市场仍处于弱势,不具备大幅上攻的动能。

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33. 外滙基金去年回报仅3.6% 上季投资收入55亿 较第3季跌九成
信报财经新闻 2011-01-27 金融, P06

外滙基金去年投资收入790 亿元,投资回报率3.6% , 全年计投资收入较2009 年减少26.65%。金管局总裁陈德霖表示,去年市场波动,投资表现已较预期理想。他对今年金融市场保持审慎态度,外滙基金在投资上将继续小心翼翼、步步为营。

今年投资续步步为营

虽然去年债券投资收入421 亿元,仍为外滙基金主要投资收入来源,但第4 季债券投资录得186 亿元亏损,令第4 季投资收入仅得55 亿元,较第3 季大跌92.62 %。

陈德霖表示,他对市场的忧虑去年先后出现,外滙基金上半年录得亏损,第3季及第4 季市场续有波动,美国11 月推出第二轮量化宽松措施后,美国10 年国库券孳息上扬,对债价不利;但期内股市收益不错,外滙基金下半年转亏为盈,表现较预期理想。

尽管第4 季港股投资收入较上一季减少71.33%,仅43 亿,全年仍有116 亿元投资收入贡献,连同外国股票全年279 亿元收入,股票总投资收入386 亿元。外滙投资则转盈为亏,录得31 亿元亏损,主要是年内欧元兑美元下跌6.5%。反映外滙基金盈亏状况的累计盈余去年增加379 亿元,至5914 亿元。

对于今年投资前景,陈德霖表示,尽管短期内美国股市在量化宽松政策、大企业盈利改善、消费情绪好转等利好因素下,可能会获得支持。

但美国的经济基础因素仍未出现根本的改善,如失业率高企、低迷的地产市场、美国家庭持续减债、美国联邦政府及地方政府的债务问题,都可能会为美国经济持续复苏带来负面影响。

同时,不肯定欧债危机是否纾缓抑或再次恶化,新兴经济体系如中国、印度及巴西正面对资金流入、高通胀和资产市场上升过急的压力,要采取一些调控及紧缩政策,有关因素均会对今年金融环境及投资市场带来颇大的不稳定性。

跑输恒指5.3%升幅

浸会大学财务及决策学系教授麦萃才认为,外滙基金投资回报率仅3.6%,并不算太高,但了解到外滙基金为维持联滙在投资上有所局限,故亦可接受。去年本港强积金平均回报率7.15%,恒生指数年内则录得5.3%的升幅。

外滙基金去年投资回报率3.6% ,若不计2008 年出现亏损,回报率为2004 年以来最低。

陈德霖解释,主要是过去2 年,资金持续流入香港,货币基础增加6000 多亿元至接近1 万亿元,影响支持货币基础的「支持组合」的表现,因为「支持组合」只可投资于流通性高的短期美债,无可避免只能提供很低,甚至近乎零的回报,但撇除「支持组合」,外滙基金的投资组合去年回报为6%。

金管局副总裁余伟文表示,自94 年至今,外滙基金每年平均回报5.9%,跑赢同期通胀1.6%。麦萃才预期市场波动,外滙基金今年要维持去年般的投资表现会有难度,他认为,股票市场特别是美股仍将录得升幅,由于利率低无可低,利率一旦掉头回升,对债价将有较大影响,债券投资甚具挑战。

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34. 英央行两官员支持加息
信报财经新闻 2011-01-27 国际金融, P19

根据英伦银行昨天公布的议息记录,在本月议息会议上支持加息的官员增至两人,显示英伦银行愈来愈担心通胀。

议息记录表示,货币政策委员会(MPC)本月曾明确考虑加息。令人意外的是,加入委员桑坦斯(AndrewSentance)一同投票支持加息0.25 厘行列的,是原被视为鸽派的威尔(Martin Weale)。

消息刺激英镑反弹,兑美元曾升至1.5891 美元,其后回落至1.5870 美元。

其他七名成员立场不变,当中六人支持维持现有货币政策不变,波森(Adam P osen)继续要求额外增加500亿英镑的量宽措施,尽管他意识到,商品价格持续走高,或英镑疲弱,可能抵消国内物价下跌的压力。记录指出,大部分成员认为,通胀在中期可能上升。

天达(Investec)的肖恩(Philip Shaw)表示,会议记录显示MPC 逐步倾向收紧货币政策,但他亦提醒,央行官员议息时尚未知道昨天才公布的上季经济意外收缩0.5%这消息,而且认为行长金格(Mervyn King)周二的发言显示,金格不希望短期内加息。

金格周二表示,英国通胀未来数月可能升至5%,但任何加息决定将取决于长期目标,强调过去一年都没有加息的决定是正确的。

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35. 杨箕村记忆
信报财经新闻 2011-01-27 文化评论, P41

杨箕的地块终于拍出了。紧靠广州大道的村口,每天坐在红色塑胶凳上抗议的村民已不复现;也再没有洒水车向拆毁后的瓦砾喷射消毒水。是的,连那些老鼠,都不再需要消灭,已经消失了。

2011 年,越秀区政府公布的「大件事」中,整治杨箕首当其冲。位于天河区与越秀区交界的杨箕村,黄金地段、寸土寸金。

杨箕地块的拍卖,也被称为广州的「新年第一拍」。据2011 年1 月24 日《广州日报》报道,杨箕村地块最终以4.73 亿元拍出,楼面地价达8953 元╱平米,超过了之前的猎德和琶洲。「在以底价夺得杨箕村地块后不到3 小时,富力地产随即发布了拿地公告。公告称,杨箕村地块规划发展成为一个包括高端住宅、写字楼及酒店的综合性项目。

」据估计,新楼的售价将不低于每平米3 万元。曾经,在四周合围的高楼中,杨箕村是一块绿洲,低廉的租价和一应俱全的生活设施,让它圆满了无数外来打工者的「居住梦」。杨箕拆迁时,媒体大量报道,人们才发现,原来里面不止有「握手楼」,还有小学、祠堂、医院……然而一切都消失了。

报纸对拆迁反应最剧烈

对杨箕拆迁反应最快、最剧烈的是报纸,因为杨箕紧邻的就是南方报业集团。

杨箕村的「一线天」和「握手楼」,曾是热血的报人最熟悉的广州场景。「2 年前,南方报业大院的所在地,仍是杨箕村的田。如今,南方大院侧门离杨箕村宅基地小铁门只隔着一条东兴北马路,约莫五六米宽。……直到杨箕拆村之前的一两个月,南方都市报几名年轻记者仍在焦头烂额地搬家挪窝。杨箕与广州其他城中村最大的差别,也许是它从未断裂的文人气质,那些曾与它朝夕相处的南方大院做梦青年,总是有意无意间,想念那时的江湖岁月。」陈扬曾著文《它它它的历史》,文中写道「城中村的历史是广州当代史上最精彩的篇章之一。……东西南北中,发财到广东。改革开放之初,五湖四海各路精英,离乡背井泣别父母只身来到广州为了理想而打拚。租金低廉的围城四周的城中村是广州接纳他们的第一个驿站。」

城中村敌不过时代

从社会学和城市学角度,城中村的存在价值已毋庸置疑,早已有大量专著诞生,聚焦这个伴随着南中国最大城市的经济腾飞而产生的城市居住群落新标本。但是,从文化角度来看,城中村有其价值吗?

有「保育」的必要吗?

在广州,关注城中村的民间组织在默默兴起,80 后的年轻人是其主力。他们多以网路为平台呼朋唤友,聚集志趣相投的网友组成活动小组。有大众型的,吃喝玩乐广州;有针对拆迁的,发起本土小组关注,聚焦老城拆迁,也包括城中村拆迁;有专业学术背景的,用田野调查的方式来纪录;更有用艺术来吸引大众关注,在城中村里举办艺术活动的—这就是「蓝田计划」了。

「蓝田计划」最先进入人们视野,是2010 年3 月他们在沥滘举行了「沥滘站—一个正在消失的坐标系」古村艺术展,活动包括摄影展示、涂鸦展示、影片展示、戏剧展示等。80 后的艺术创意与沥滘这个有着900 年历史的老村落的火花并不明显,但迅速引起了媒体及大众的注意。成年人们总是想知道年轻人们在玩些什么、想些什么。这一次活动后, 「蓝田计划」没有再更新它们的博客,是年轻人一时兴起之后的荒废么?不得而知。但这样的民间小组会愈来愈多。

也许有一天,不止是杨箕,广州的所有城中村都会有记忆。因为愈来愈多人意识到,它们敌不过时代,更敌不过城市,他们即将不复存在。

米亚

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36. 虚实参半的《中国皇后号》
信报财经新闻 2011-01-27 文化评论, P41

由香港话剧团制作的《中国皇后号》,可算是一出记载着一段重要的中美贸易与文化关系的历史剧。故事依据1784 年一艘名为「中国皇后号」的美国商船,离开纽约港驶往广州黄埔港,开启中美两国首次通商的传奇改编而成。而至19 84 年,美国费城海事博物馆(Philadelphia Maritime Museum) 出版了由Philip Chadwick FosterSmith 撰写的《中国皇后号》(TheEmpress of China)一书,作为纪念这艘商船首航中国二百周年的历史里程。

1776 年英属的北美十三个殖民地发表著名的《美国独立宣言》,声明从此脱离大英帝国的统治,开首一段: 「人人生而平等,造物者赋予他们若干不可剥夺的权利,其中包括生命权、自由权和追求幸福的权利。」用以阐明其政治哲学基础。之后经历八年的独立战争,至1783 年英美签订《巴黎条约》,美国正式独立,成为一个联邦共和国,名为美利坚合众国。

政治思维之涟漪

《中》一剧正是描写这新诞生的国家,在刚独立不久,受到以英国为首的欧洲列强对其实行贸易禁运,处于百废待兴的艰难日子,凭着无比勇气、敢于冒险的开拓精神,以一艘改装的海军帆船,满载人参、毛皮、棉花和胡椒等商品,跨洋过海,远航中国,与这东方古老大国进行首次贸易交往,终于突破禁运的经济困境。与此同时,中国正逢康乾盛世,欧洲诸国来华通商已逾百年历史,对这艘才三百六十吨的商船不甚注意,更因其同属英语系族,初次会晤便错把「花旗国」当英国招待,产生不少误解。

剧中人物虚实参半,美国船长约翰.格林(JohnGreen)、大班森茂.尚少校(Samuel Shaw)和策划此次航程的罗伯特.莫里斯(Robert Morris)等,皆是真有其人,莫里斯更在是次航程回国后名利双收;而与尚少校有一段邂逅之情的女主角潘紫莲,以及紫莲兄长潘文达的英语老师彼尔神甫,该是虚构人物。其时的清朝跟西方早有商事,彼尔神甫亦是洋人,剧中人不应对金发碧眼的西洋异族感到完全陌生,那乘着「中国皇后号」扬帆而来的美利坚合众国,怎样于这古老大国泛起涟漪?主要源于其崭新的政治思维。清朝作为中国历史最后的一个封建皇朝,面对这个年轻国家相信「政府之正当权力,是经被治理者的同意而产生」的政治理念,固然大为诧异。但当明白到中国传统文化讲「理」,是反求诸己,注重个人生命的自我承担,个人人格的发展和精神性的突围;而西方人讲「理」,表现于各大团体力量的较量,以社群代表一种力量,便可理解两者的深层矛盾所在。牟宗三先生在其《政道与治道》中说得清楚,中国传统政治学说一直只着力于(帝王)治国之道的思考,而欠缺对(帝王)政权合法合理性的反省,故此仅有「治道」而没有「政道」。一天「政道」的问题未能解决,如何完善的「治道」包括帝王个人道德的超越,最终亦要面临挑战。因为拥有权力,不等于自动拥有政治的合法性。

文化本质之思除却中美政治体制差异外,剧中故事亦多番涉及中美人民在关乎道德上的互相信任问题。依据历史记载,大班森茂.尚被东家诬陷其侵吞携到华来购货的其中二千三百银元,商人的诚信备受质疑,回国后郁郁而终。而《中》剧添加一段亦虚亦实的情节,描写潘紫莲躲在屏风后偷听到尚少校向彼尔神甫诉冤屈时,毅然现身冲口而出就说相信他,对他表示绝对信任;相反,一众清朝官员则为此事对美国人的商业诚信大肆批判,尚少校险惹牢灾。这在剧里虽是一段小插曲,但一方面反映了两国司法制度上的分歧,另方面带出更深入的道德思考。从来,道德不应用来迫害人,而是用来成就人。紫莲成就了别人的人格完整;官吏们则对别人的人格加以迫害。五千年的中国历史,道德批判从未止息。

难得香港话剧团于文化性消费主导市场的此刻,敢于搬演这个娱乐性不高、消费效益不大而题旨严肃的历史剧,给大众多一个选择。

繄伊

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37. 「平人」的「茉莉革命」
信报财经新闻 2011-01-27 文化评论, P41

突尼斯的「茉莉革命」(JasmineRevolution)向全世界示范了一次「星星之光」为什么「可以燎原」。请记住一个青年的名

字:穆罕默德.布

瓦吉吉(Mohamed Bouazizi),他本来在突尼斯中部城市西迪布济德的街头摆卖蔬果,去年12 月被警察殴打并没收手推车,投诉无门,便在政府办公楼前淋汽油自焚抗议,那燃烧的身体散发着茉莉花香,也散发着胡兰成所说的「平人(平民)的潇湘」,那是一种革命的美,恍如「洪荒世界里无人见的玻璃屑」, 「在地上发出小小的亮光」,像茉莉花香那样散播「人世的大信」。

也请记住一位记者的名字: 哈尼(Zied El Hani)。他本来任职于亲政府报章的国际版,可同时也是一名异议「博客」,他的网志以〈茉莉革命〉为题: 「茉莉花的白色象征突尼斯人民的宽容,而芬芳则如同突尼斯的气味。茉莉花反映出这个国家的富饶。」他说: 「这些人明白,尊严比面包更可贵。」贴文当日,正是突尼斯总统本阿里(Ben Ali)突然辞职的前一天。

灰烬的底层正燃着火苗

这篇网志随即在facebook 和twitter 广泛流传,让全世界都知道,这个表面上安定繁荣(GDP 增长达4.5%到5%)的北非小国贪腐严重,殊不和谐,好在民间有诗—几乎所有阿拉伯英语媒体都援引突尼斯短命诗人沙比(Abu al-Qasim al-Shab i)的名句: 「人民一旦提出了生存的意志╱命运就必须回诉他的诉求╱而长夜必将留下撕开的折痕╱而所有的镣铐也必然粉碎」, 「而他已被生之大爱围抱╱在消失之前蒸发着爱的气味」,这首突尼斯无人不晓的名诗叫做《生的意志》(The Will of Life),沙比在这世界只活了二十五年(1909-1934),这首诗此刻正好献给与诗人一样风华正茂的自焚青年穆罕默德.布瓦吉吉。

那么就让全世界的「平人」多唸一首沙比的诗吧: 「请那稍等一会╱勿让春天╱那天空的明净与晨光的普照愚弄你╱……╱因为那黑暗╱那沉雷╱那风吹草动╱正从地平线╱扑向你身边╱千万要小心╱因为灰烬的底层正燃着火苗」。执笔时正是母难之日,便在facebook 贴了一小段《茉莉革命》,向沙比致敬,也向穆罕默德.布瓦吉吉,向1969 年自焚的捷克大学生帕拉赫(JanPalach),向以血肉之身挡着坦克车的中国青年王维林,向所有挺身捍卫家园的本土精神守护

者致敬:

「都听好╱一切闭门独裁者╱后殖民执死鸡者╱假选举贪腐者╱践踏人权上位者╱白色霸权膜拜者与勾结者╱民主自由平等的抽水者与背叛者╱最后的丧钟╱穿越阿拉伯海╱穿越印度洋╱终于震通了╱南中国海╱与维多利亚港╱的每一只╱闭塞的耳朵╱让茉莉香的蜡雨╱下了一夜╱从北非下到亚细亚╱从弥敦道下到长安大街」。

「下一个该轮到谁了?」突尼斯的「平人」都不信任任何权势, 「茉莉革命」最值得吸取的教训,恐怕就是标榜民主、人权的西方国家固然不可信—美国一向纵容听命的独裁者,此次装模作样召见突尼斯大使,要求尊重公民权利、言论自由,突尼斯的前宗主国法兰西(无论政府还是反对党)更连门面工夫也省掉,索性闭嘴而旁观;声称解放世界、与强权对抗的恐怖组织亦不可信,因为两者都是后殖民革命的执死鸡者,他们都同样伪善地缄默,在局势如沉雷之际冷眼旁观,倒是一些西方报章舆论犹保持了「平人」的良心,比如法国《解放报》曾以头版刊出多名阿拉伯领导人照片,问道:「下一个该轮到谁了?」照片里的独裁者,包括埃及总统穆巴拉克(Mohammed Hosni Mubarak)、阿尔及利亚总统布特福利卡(Abdelaziz Bouteflika)、利比亚总统卡达菲(Omar Mouammer al Gaddafi)、敍利亚总统阿萨德(Bashar al-Assad)、约旦国王阿卜杜拉二世(Abdullah II BinHussein)—这无疑就是向全世界展示了一张远远不完整的「白色霸权膜拜者与勾结者」与「民主自由平等的抽水者与背叛者」的名单。那么,以宽容和智慧著称的突尼斯发出远方的闷雷,轰走了独裁、腐败、不称职的当权者,在阿拉伯世界开创了首例,那么,和平民主转型真的有如沙比诗中所说的「灰烬的底层正燃着火苗」吗?

「有心采一朵戴」就很好

「平人」有诗,也有义,当中有些草莽也成了「平人」的盟友,诸如维基解密(Wikileaks)曾爆出「突尼斯腐败:你们的就是我的」的电文,揭露总统家族像黑手党,他的二太太莱拉(Leila Trabelsi)明目张胆的敛财自肥,而黑客组织An onymous 乃维基解密的支持者,亦曾攻陷突尼斯政府机构的网站,而网络世界里总有禁之不绝的草莽呼声,诸如驱动「平人」上街,反对投票权仅限男性,疾呼「除了吃饭,除了就业,还得要活得有尊严」。

对了,请长官们都听好, 「平人」不仅仅要安定繁荣,也不仅仅要吃饭和就业,也得要自己当家作主的家园,也得要让茉莉花开的潇湘,让它开遍北非与中东,开遍所有封闭的世界,这才想起中国也有一首民歌,亦叫《茉莉花》: 「好一朵茉莉花╱好一朵茉莉花╱满园花开╱比也比不过它╱我有心采一朵戴╱又怕来年不发芽」,就是这样了, 「有心采一朵戴」就很好了,也不怕它来年不发芽。

叶辉

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38. 李居明:偏向虎山打硬仗
信报财经新闻 2011-01-27 今日焦点, P38

被李居明暗笑「中计」的八卦杂志,指身家5 亿的他炒楼炒舖还炒骨灰龛,靠「迷信工业」抽水,低调的李大师高调反击,在报纸登广告反讽周刊免费替他宣传粤剧事业。谁是受害者?谁是中计人?迷离扑朔笔者无意查究,反而很想了解李居明那颗误照沟渠的丹心,又他何故在上岸之年「翻兜」编剧老本行?

「粤剧由剧本、接班人到观众,都有危机!难道香港不承传本地文化,只保护狗仔队文化?」李居明咬牙切齿,重现当年宣传《大迷信》时的肉紧状,他亲眼目睹有老倌被观众欺凌至落泪,令他决意要令粤剧起死回生。

「你哋唔识搞,我最叻『造市』,我不但出山,而且出钱出力去搞,纵然有人揶揄指:『李居明是铜臭怪,点会做好事?』我喺内地起咗十四间学校有无人知?

我反对火葬危害祖荫,又怎会炒骨灰龛?我就要在香港表演如何做『完人』!」

买起新光打入荷里活

《圣经》提过挪亚是完人;自称是完人的,我生平还是第一次听,不是在方舟,而是在被豪宅包围的九龙塘「大师堂」,那是李居明的自置物业。

唐涤生之后,粤剧创作后继无人。自言熟读莎士比亚、满肚四书五经、细胞都识做戏的李居明,与友人组成「盛世天」剧团,去年于八个月内一口气创作了三个粤剧剧本,包括请来反串小生盖鸣晖演出的《蝶海情僧》、《金玉观世音》及《大唐胭脂》,分别于香港、北京、杭州三地以粤剧、京剧和越剧三种形式联演,投资逾千万元。

这还不止,李居明还夸下海口,说要买起新光戏院,已坐言起行。「业主不为钱,好难搞,买不到惟有物色工厦或者等西九。」他还说要在红馆演出粤剧,物色名歌星和艺人参与演出、加强粤剧教育,要为奄奄一息的粤剧作法。

李居明透露,已有海外电影公司洽商把《蝶海情僧》拍成「卧虎藏龙式的荷里活电影」,令粤剧扬名国际,他并已开始写其第四个创作剧目《俏孔明三嫁娇妻》,编剧出身的他坦言,电影看过一次就不想看,但粤剧是人生哲学的包装,可以传世。

不是陈振聪式靠口揾食原名李康华的李居明,在浸会学院(现时浸会大学)传理系毕业,后投身电影界。1986 年,他一口气写了十二个剧本,最后没有一个能拍出来,反而日日有人请他睇风水,他于是把所有剧本和书籍通通锁进书柜,无奈地、屈辱地、信命地转行做风水佬。

「我是大学生,又写得、又多桥、又做到老总(《青年人週报》和《奇闻》),怎会甘心做风水佬?既然这是我的宿命,我就要做一个最出色风水佬,连国际巨擘可口可乐都要揾我睇风水,并非陈振聪式靠把口揾食。」当年的委屈,今日烟消云散,李居明也落实他的理念: 「先入世俗,再谈理想。」「I will fight back !」他把埋藏了「理想」的书柜劈开过两次,一次是写《大迷信》,另一次是写《蝶海情僧》。

「本来我可以低调过余生,但为了三个亲生子(自创剧)可以出头,我惟有出嚟任人『砌』!」李居明说得义愤填膺,嗓门提高以示革命感。

问李居明是否命运要他搞粤剧?扬言自小吃粤剧奶水长大的他,答除了与粤剧有缘外,还是要在退休前证明自己有「化腐朽为神奇」的神力。「我呢世人最锺意打逆水战,由当年做报纸、电影宣传、风水事业到现在要把粤剧起死回生,我习惯『明知山有虎,偏向虎山行』。」不过,他指投身粤剧界三天已想死,这场硬仗,不易打。「是非多、陋习多、老倌不和……」麦嘉叫他做郭靖、徐克指他是孔明,自命懂七十二变像孙悟空的李居明,差点投降。

「我个人好低调!」一轮机关枪式的言论,李居明收歛了,呷一口茶道。收到,有没有别的自评,大师?

「基本上,我是一个好人。」「一个抱着地藏菩萨心怀、宁可放弃享福,甘被腐朽世界折磨的凡人。」这个自述,果然好低调!

郑天仪ttycheng@hkej.com

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39. 家族企业承传 须建立良好管理制度
信报财经新闻 2011-01-27 专家之言, P34

随着香港人口老化,香港企业的管理层亦日渐步入晚年,大大小小企业家现时均面对交棒的挑战,澳博(880)股权转移更成为近日城中热话,还有早前的南丰集团、为人熟悉的镛记、福临门等;或许大家不知悉一些著名的香港珠宝公司,即使其名称及品牌相同,但在本港不同地区均属其不同房持有的。

综观古今中外的朝代更迭,挑选接班人(太子)乃非常困难的事情,即如大家族成员众多,而且他们的利益错综复杂,非常不容易釐清或平衡各方面的利益和势力,故君主为协助太子顺利接待,往往不惜牺牲其他儿子的性命或其他方面的利益,否则其他皇子或派别将可能对候任君主构成威胁及制造障碍,即使亲生兄弟亦比比皆是,唐太宗李世民在「玄武门之变」弑兄杀弟才夺得帝位,开创「贞观之治」。

笔者相信各位非常明白:大家族的成员是否真的融洽相处?尤其是太太或子女们,俗话说: 「一代亲、二代疏、三代便嘴?? !」故必须建立良好的管理制度,借以保障家族的利益,如分隔管理权及拥有权等。

家族成员均希望把祖业继续发扬光大,好让他们的财富继续升值,故管理层必须具备能力及对家族企业的忠诚度作出最佳的决定,尽量减低利益冲突,绝非用人唯亲!九巴雷氏后人更大方把祖传物业雷生春捐赠予政府,供教育慈善团体活化其祖业,既可保护祖业,又为社会谋求福祉,值得各界借鉴和效法。

把握领导层换班时机入货

其实国家犹如一个企业,现任君主当然希望把皇位交予最杰出的皇子,并希望其他皇子辅助新任君主,或其他皇子不能干预,否则一个国家(或企业)随时出现两个或多个权力核心,甚至有机会走上衰亡之路!若交棒给一位精明能干的皇子,以其个人的能力驾驭其他皇族成员,但却必须付出时间和代价,如不惜牺牲对继承人构成威胁、具有才干及野心勃勃的皇子或臣子们,否则国家(企业)便永无宁日、斗争不绝! 若由无能者接任,其他皇族、外戚、宦官、群臣等便有机会弄权及陷入互相争权取利,以致民不聊生,为皇朝覆亡留下伏笔,历代治乱兴衰循环不息。

除了严选一位杰出的皇子外,上代君主必须在交棒时协助他尽快巩固其地位及公信力,即组织其「班子」是也! 蜀主刘备临终在白帝城托孤诸葛亮,并训示刘后主刘禅: 「勉之勉之,勿以恶小而为之,勿以善小而不为,唯德唯贤,能服于人!

」但刘禅后来却「乐不思蜀」!香港不少上市企业或尚未上市的企业未来同样面对此风险,或许大家没有想到上一代强人领导,业务蒸蒸日上,但却因为离世或退任引致上市公司的股价波动,此乃各位投资者持有上市企业的股份必须注意的风险因素之一。

当出现争抛或短期负面因素时,股价可能大跌,或甚至有机会易手,此却可能属于另一个长线购入优质企业股份的时机,所以本港不少家族企业未来可能提供良好的出入市机遇,各位投资者宜把握之。

笔者每年均为本年投资的危与机把脉,从而考虑所有潜在的风险,当中有否出现相关的征兆及机会率等方面,并制订应对的策略。

兔年投资焦点R+M

东骥基金研究部认为必须先避其锋才可获利,笔者谨此奉劝各位千万不要跟新兴市场的政府对着干,故本年至今上升幅度最佳的市场包括:香港恒指3.63%、道指上升3.45% 、金融指数上升3.7% 、法国CAC40 指数上升5.65%及德国DAX 指数上升2.09%等,全部属于成熟市场(Matured Economies),以M 为代表。

若计算欧罗本年至今上升2.115%,如【表1】所示,本年至今升幅最佳(以美元计)包括:东欧匈牙利上升9.38%、法国上升8.10%、俄罗斯股市上升5.31%等,故本栏组合转换至百利达俄罗斯基金是正确的。

其他还包括: 日本东证Mothers 指数上升5%、德国DAX 指责上升4.47%、韩国证交所指数上升3.45%、越南股市上升3.41%等;这些市场均以出口为主,欧美经济现处于复苏阶段,一如本栏早前表示兔年对出口为主的地区及行业有利,故以复苏(Recovery)R 为代表。由于2011 年的焦点为R 及M,各位投资者在兔年宜继续留意R 及M 的地区及相关行业╱股份。

至于基金升幅方面,按【表2】所示,本年至今(快近1 个月)上升幅度最佳竟然属于早前下跌幅度最大之欧洲金融股基金,上升了9.68% ; 其次是欧猪成员之一的意大利基金,上升8.87%,接下来还包括几只欧洲基金、西班牙╱葡萄牙基金,上升7.26%,百利达法国股票基金也上升了7.12%等; 日本店头基金上升6.92%。

农产品短期炒味浓

从2011 年首月的升幅而论,东骥基金研究部早前所作出的分析属正确,当然首月的表现并不代表本年余下的情况,但最少在兔年之始凝聚这个势头,值得各位投资者留意。

东骥模拟组合一周下降1.85%,由于组合内大部钠基金录得负回报,只有宝源台湾基金录得0.23%上升。跌幅最大属于农产品及矿业基金,东骥基金研究部相信农产品短期的炒味大浓烈,现时应作出调整,中长线仍然看好。

基金组合详情:www.pegasus.com.hk 电邮:fund@pegasus.com.hk 声明:基金价格可升可跌,以往业绩并不代表将来之业绩之保证。基金组合只是模拟,并不构成投资建议。东骥基金及东骥基金管理的基金及股票组合,有可能持有其中的股份。作者为证监会持牌人士,本人或其公司户口并没有持有上述提及股份。

庞宝林

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40. 雅虎裁员Google增聘同为应对重大挑战
信报财经新闻 2011-01-27 放眼国际, P34

互联网巨擘雅虎周二宣布六周来的第二轮裁员决定,但其主要竞争对手Google同日却透露历来最大招聘计划。虽然两家公司的业务发展策略截然相反,但两者有一个共同点,就是均面对重大挑战,必须采取积极应对措施,以维持公司的经营。

上月圣诞节前刚宣布裁员600 人的雅虎,前天表示再裁员100 至150 人, 约占该公司员工的1% 。同日,Google 表示今年计划增聘至少6200 名员工,是历来招聘人手最多的一年。

业务策略截然相反

同是互联网搜索引擎的雅虎和Google,作出了截然相反的业务发展策略决定,反映两家公司目前的处境极其不同,但其实均要面对巨大挑战,因此必须采取积极的应对措施。

雅虎方面,该公司已连续多年业绩表现欠佳,并为解决困局先后在2008 年底、2009 年第二季度和上月分别裁员1400 人、700 人和600 人,以削减成本,并将更多资源集中在处于核心位置的网站和显示广告业务之上。截至去年10 月底,雅虎在全球的员工总数为14100 人。

至于今次裁员,雅虎并未提供具体细节,但公司发言人伦基克(Dana Lengkee k)透露,裁员范围涉及数个国家的媒体和广告部门雇员,并表示人事调整是雅虎目前策略的一部分,以促进收入增长和提高盈利率,从而帮助该公司向市场提供异化产品和用户体验。伦基克强调,雅虎将会继续在全球招聘新雇员,以支持公司的关键业务。

与雅虎大刀阔斧裁员行动形成鲜明对比的, 是Google 的大规模招聘计划。Go ogle 今年计划招聘的人数,将较2007 年征才6131 人的历来最高纪录更多,并令公司员工总数增加约四分之一。去年Google 刚招聘了近4600 人,是历来招聘人数第二高年份。该公司工程与研究高级副总裁尤斯塔斯(Alan Eustace)表示,对今年感到非常兴奋,因为将会是Google 历来招聘最多人手的年份,他们会从全球各地寻找顶级人才加盟。

Google 亦没有就招聘计划提供具体细节,但尤斯塔斯透露,他们会搜罗各方面的人才,其中包括企业及视频等领域,大多数新员工会分成小组工作,实际运作有如创业公司一样。此外,Google 行政总裁施密特(Eric Schmidt)表示,将在欧洲增聘超过1000 人。他在出席德国一个会议时曾称,Google 在全球的业务均进展良好,因此会在欧洲增加1000 名员工,以及作出显著的投资,并有数以百计的人员会在慕尼黑的科技中心工作。

论经营情况,Google 远较雅虎处于有利位置,因此可以招兵买马,扩展业务。但分析指出,该公司其实也与雅虎一样,正面对巨大挑战,就是新兴的网络公司不断威胁其产业领导地位,其中尤以社交网站Facebook(FB)抢夺其市场占有率的情况最为显著。

Google 大规模招聘员工,正是要应付这些新兴社交网站的挑战,以维持其互联网龙头地位。资料显示,目前FB 员工中,有10%原来任职Google,而Google 为了留住人才和防止被竞争对手挖角,在去年宣布给所有员工加薪10%。

招揽人才巩固地位

华尔街的投资者对Google 大规模增聘员工计划并不表欢迎,因此举意味公司的薪酬开支升幅将高于收入增长,影响公司的盈利,损害投资者分红,例如该公司去年给员工加薪10%的决定,就令公司在今年需支付5 亿美元。

对此,Google 试图安抚表示,公司需要积极招揽人才,希望聘用更多优秀的电脑工程师和销售人员,以维持其在网络搜寻和广告的领先地位。

此外,该公司又强调,需要在运算、电信和媒体等领域进行多样化发展。话虽如此,但Google 面对重大挑战的情况亦甚为明显。

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41. 银根紧 银行天价利率吓熟客 1月新贷势逾1.2万亿料占全年17%
信报财经新闻 2011-01-27 中国经济, P14

中国监管部门虽已采取多种措施严控信贷投放,但银行在年初放贷的冲动仍难以遏制,1 月份逾万亿元(人民币.下同)放贷已导致银行信贷资源空前紧张,部分银行主动大幅上调贷款利率,上调幅度最多达45%。

上调幅度由10%至45% 《中国证券报》引述一国有大型银行资产负债部人士透露,目前银行当月信贷额度已全部投放完毕,总行已下死命令,本月各分支行放贷不得超出当月信贷额度。为保证信贷投放额度不超标,现在总行已发文要求各分支行提高贷款利率水平,一些银行贷款利率上调幅度介乎10%至45%。

评级较高、与银行多年合作的重点客户,银行一向会给予较佳的利率。一国有大型银行客户经理指出,该等客户本来是可适当下浮其贷款利率,但总行审批后给予的贷款利率已变成为基准利率或上浮10%左右。他说: 「这么高的利率水平已吓退一些潜在贷款客户。」即使这样,信贷资源仍显得格外紧张,而总行目前审批贷款周期亦较以往长。

有股份制银行人士透露,该行对公司类贷款提出效益优先要求,在谈项目的时候,贷款利率也尽量上浮。今年以来,中小企业贷款平均利率在基准利率基础上上浮约40%,但中小企业信贷需求依然旺盛。

尽管国务院总理温家宝表明要防止年初信贷非正常投放,但银行的放贷冲动未减。

《第一财经日报》引述权威人士透露,截至1 月24 日,商业银行1 月的新增贷款已达1.2 万亿元,直逼去年同期的1.39 万亿元的贷款量。若以全年信贷控制在7.0 万亿至7.5万亿元目标计算,到目前为止,1 月信贷增量已占全年比例的16% 至17%。

刘明康指1 月贷款较高

市传人行此前已定下各行1 月信贷额度,不能超过各行全年信贷目标的12%。

从目前来看,1 月前两周各行放贷额度已超越该比例。故银行目前的放贷已非常审慎,甚至有些银行已暂停对部分项目贷款的审批。

对于银行在1 月份放贷过猛,银监会主席刘明康出席达沃斯世界论坛时表示,中国的银行新增贷款在1 月份通常会比较高。人行副行长马德伦在网站上声明中再次强调,要保持信贷总量合理适度成长、控制好货币供给总量,以及继续优化信贷结构。要把稳定价格总水准放在更加突出的位置,将综合运用多种货币政策工具,管理流动性,实施差别准备金动态调整措施,引导金融机构保持信贷平稳适度成长。

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42. 图则申请量再创新高南湾发水56%
信报财经新闻 2011-01-27 房产, P11

政府就入则设立门槛,发展商纷赶在4 月期限前入则;屋宇署最新资料显示,上月共有134 份入则申请,其中新个案达120 宗的新高水平,按月飙升71% ,获批图则亦以46 份创新高。另一方面,受停车场和机房等设施带动,新地(016 )牵头发展的南湾获批的宽免楼面相等于原有获批楼面的56%。

屋宇署接获的入则申请总数量,由11 月份的92 份,增加至12 月份的134 宗,其中首次申请的个案达120 宗,提交主要修订的个案则14 宗;获批图则的46 份图则,则包括30份新批图则。其中恒地(012)主席李兆基家族去年购入的白加道35 号用地,获批建3 幢3层高洋房,并设1 层停车场,总楼面约2.375万方呎。

另外,多个项目获批入伙纸后,陆续公布宽免楼面的比例。其中新地、百利保(617)和嘉里建设(683)合作发展的鸭脷洲南湾,原有的住用和非住用总楼面约91.33 万方呎,惟计入停车场和上落客设施、机房及获豁免的环保设施后,豁免楼面共达51.69 万方呎,占原有获批楼面约56%。

停车场一直被视为发水的元凶,该项目亦不例外,其中停车场和上落客货豁免楼面范围占27%,机房等则约16%,至于环保设施所获豁免的楼面,相对之下只约4.

2 万方呎,占4.6%。

此外,信置(083)旗下的长沙湾道270 号,宽免楼面则占获批楼面的43%;至于由雅居乐地产(3383)主席陈卓林等持有的渣甸山包华士道1号,原获批楼面约7857 方呎,另获批的宽免楼面约29%。

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43. 「创新」一词多解 美国「迷失」未来
信报财经新闻 2011-01-27 投资者日记, P23

毕者推介

■根据往绩,银行╱金融板块在恒指最后升浪中往往有稳健的表现,升幅介乎45%至48%。然而,面对中央收紧银根的措施日益升级,内银股会否拖低整体金融板块的表现?研究部在24 页详尽分析。

■结构性金融产品复杂多变,虽然散户较少应用于实战,但知多一点点也获益不浅。邹小敏和林建继续深入浅出,解构累积沽出合约(Deccumulator)的操作及计价方法。详见27 页「数里见真章」。

■财政预算发表在即,公仔箱不时播出人人黐须扮财爷的广告。不过,这次民意收集恐怕跟特首准备施政报告时既搞facebook 又学人rap 一样,意见接受,行动照旧。罗耕在35 页「财经DNA」警告港府,不听民意后果堪虞。

1 月26 日,周三。隔晚美股个别发展,收市变动不大。市场观望联储局议息结果,以及总统奥巴马发表国情咨文的详情,投资者入市态度审慎。道指微跌3 点,纳指轻微高收1 点,标普500 近平收。

港股反覆向好,轻微高开14 点后,初段一度掉头下跌126 点,惟中午前回升,午后最多升187 点,再逼近二万四关口,高见23976 点。恒指扭转过去四日的跌势,全日上升54 点或0.2%,收市报23843 点,成交金额维持偏低,仅得682 亿元。国企指数上涨87 点或0.7%,造12649 点。期指上扬77 点,收报23858 点,高水15 点。

重磅蓝筹股偏软,滙控(005)下跌近1%,中移动(941)低收0.8%。内银股普遍靠稳,建行(939)上涨1.6%,信行(998)上升1.4%,招行(3968)及中行(39 88)同轻微高收0.2%。国泰(293)就反垄断案向欧盟提出上诉,股价下滑2.4%。

澳博(880)控股股东股权争议,影响到上市公司股价表现,复牌急挫近5%。

信德(242)轻微高收0.2%。新濠(200)则下跌2.5%。恒隆系公布业绩,恒隆集团(010)与恒隆地产(101)中期纯利同时大减八成一,但对股价影响不大,分别上升1%及0.3%。

美国总统奥巴马在本港时间周三早上发表2011 年国情咨文,在长逾一小时的演说中,先后三十一度提及「职位」(jobs)一词,为罗斯福以还十三位总统(包括奥巴马自己)合共六十八篇施政大纲演说中,这个字眼出现次数最多的一次。

从奥巴马开腔前,民调无一例外地显示经济尤其就业是美国人心目中的头等大事(财赤债务次之),总统在演说中一再提及「职位」,跟国情民情可说丝丝入扣完全脗合。

老毕在奥巴马登上国会山庄前,曾幻想自己是美国总统,自问: 「面对创造就业刻不容缓╱增加开支财赤必升,两难如何抉择?」结果,我放弃了。听过其国情咨文后,奥巴马亦不见得有肯定的答案。他在演说中强调,美国人要释放创新精神,在急剧转变竞争激烈的环球经济中凭实力压倒对手……政府则有必要大力振兴教育科技,让美国「赢得未来」(win the future)。

愿景事实距离远

此等愿景与理念,出于任何一国的最高领导人,皆无不合之理。然而,听在美国五中有一长待家中苦候「米路」的失业(或就业不足)人士耳里,奥巴马的话等于提醒他们,在全球化的世界中,跟美国人争饭碗的前有中国后有印度,还有数之不尽在中印之后等着崛起的新兴国家。对这些美国人来说,总统一席话,是纶音还是讽刺?

一查奥巴马国情咨文中出现次数较多的字眼,除了「职位」、「赤字」(defi cit)外,要数作动词用的「创新」(innovate),以及「竞争」(compete)。有趣的是,在列根之前,历任总统于国情咨文中提及「创新」绝无仅有,惟过去二十余年却时有所见,奥巴马此番便先后用上十一次之多【图】。

然而, 「创新」可以一词多解,列根于1983 年以此形容利用剩余穀物代替现金支付农民; 五年后(1988 年),这位共和党总统在国情咨文中再度用上此词,指的却是要求领取福利的国民寻找工作自力更生。以此二例而论,创新的含义跟大多数人的理解南辕北辙,可谓风马牛不相及。到了克林顿任内最后一篇国情咨文(2000 年),创新的「内涵」终于比较靠谱,所指乃为失明人士提供人造视网膜,协助他们重见天日。

奥巴马口中的「创新」(科技、教育、基建、研发),与公众的认知又再拉近一步。然而,他既视中印等新兴强国为全球竞争中美国的「假想敌」,那么从他认为必须着力投放资源的领域──高速铁路、洁净能源、互联网──来看,除了因言文之忌仍多而未中门大开的互联网,中国的发展不是已取得优势,便是足与美国并驾齐驱。著名调研机构皮犬(Pew)在国家主席胡锦涛访美前进行的一项调查发现,最多美国受访者(47%)相信中国是当世第一经济强国。中国GDP 只及美国四成,人均计更仅及美国十分之一,若非美国人心里认定形势比人强,试问还有什么理由足以解释这个跟事实大有出入的调查结果?

win the future?

奥巴马以半世纪前苏联在太空竞赛中早着先鞭,却被美国后来居上,人类首次登陆月球的殊荣归于后者这个历史先例,鼓励国民效法前人,以积极态度面对挑战迎接竞争。时移世易,从皮犬的调查可见,五十年后的今天,美国人对未来缺乏的正正就是信心。奥巴马在国情咨文中高呼win the future,惟这只是口号一句,如何把美国的未来「赢回来」,国情咨文中并未能提供足以令人信服的答案。

毕老林

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44. 一波未平一波又起 长房突介入赌王争产风波
信报财经新闻 2011-01-27 要闻, P03

为了家和万事兴,赌王何鸿燊昨天终于亲自现身解画,表明不想「你又告我,我又告你」,希望平息纠缠了三天的千亿财产争拗。

不过,赌王一席话未能一锤定音,争产风波仍悬而未决。被视为输了第一仗的四太梁安琪,一直沉着应战,昨天顺应赌王之意表示: 「一家人要以和为贵」;而从未有表态的长房,其三女何超贤昨晚突然高调加入战团,直指一些家庭成员的做法违背父亲意愿,言论及行为极其令人不安,严重伤害感情。

律师又解雇又委任

澳博(880)主席何鸿燊昨天在三太陈婉珍陪同下,首度开腔回应争产一事,坦言对是次风波感到不开心, 「我的确为了最近这次风波,令到自己不开心,家人亦不开心,这十年来我好爱锡家人……未试过……你又告我,我又告你……」略带倦容的他重申,落实早前把澳娱股权转让予二房及三房的安排,希望有关声明可以让事情得到解决,不欲再有任何变卦。读毕声明后,三太及其长女何超云便匆匆把赌王推回房间,没有回答记者提问。

触发争产事件的律师高国骏被指已遭解雇,何鸿燊上午宣读声明时提到: 「现在不需要他(高国骏),因为大问题已经解决」。不过,昨天下午高国骏与何鸿燊会面后又表示,仍然获何氏委任,并将继续代表何氏在澳博、澳娱及持有澳娱股权的Lanceford 公司之权益,但拒绝评论会否如期展开讨回股权的法律行动,只暗示稍后会有进一步行动。

据悉,高国骏昨天表示手上持有一段录影片段,内容是何鸿燊本周二早上对着镜头表示: 「帮我追回(Get me back)」。

对于上述录影片段内容,连日来保持沉默的澳博执行董事梁安琪表示,这是律师之间事务,不便回应。

昨天她待赌王发表声明后,与长女何超盈一起直闯三太住所,其后陪同赌王离开,返回赌王浅水湾大宅;之后,她亲口确认澳娱股份转让予二房及三房的安排,并称今后会尽量做好澳博的工作,令股价上升,向股东交代;被问到目前谁是大股东,她未有回应,只重申一家人应以和为贵。

何超贤:成员言论令人不安然而,以和为贵能否落实仍属未知之数,长房三女何超贤昨晚突然透过其私人助理发出声明,指父亲何鸿燊一直打算把家产均分给子女,但一些家庭成员在他的资产方面的做法违背他的意愿。

她提到: 「何家部分成员的言论及行为极其令人不安,严重伤害感情……我不相信我父亲会不留任何东西给我母亲这一房……我在葡萄牙的关系及在澳门的社会地位,是父亲赢得赌场专营权的一大因素」。她指出,曾试图与二房何超琼及何超凤等商讨,但不被理睬。据悉,何超贤昨午曾与丈夫前往三太住所,但却被拒于门外。相关新闻刊第四页

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明报 A
 1. 外汇基金回报3.6% 远逊 09年 末季投资债券见红 拟投资海外物业
明报 2011-01-27 经济, B02

【明报记者李家欣报道】外汇基金在去年第4 季表现平平,投资收入受累债券亏损,仅录得55 亿元回报,全年赚790 亿元,按年倒退26.6%。随着债券孳息率抽升打击债券价格,金管局未来或减持债券,增加现金比例,并展开多元化投资,包括投资在私募基金、海外物业及新兴市场的股票和债券,提高中长线的回报率。金管局亦获得人民银行批出150 亿元额度,投资内地银行间债券市场。

为达致投资多元化,金管局除在2009 年注资28 亿元成立Eight Finance 负责另类投资项目,据悉去年亦已成立新的附属投资公司,全年投资收入达到14 亿元。副总裁余伟文指出,多元化投资比例仍只属小部分, 「私募基金、海外物业与市场相互关系较低,可起分散风险作用,亦为外汇基金提供中长线投资回报。」

全年赚790 亿倒退27%

他强调,当局购买海外物业作收租用途,并不会涉足本港物业,未来亦拟增加多元化投资部分,向附属投资公司继续注资。金管局获得的投资内地银行间债券市场额度,暂属一次性,当局将利用港元向人行兑换人民币进行。余伟文表示,将会以此作为长期分散投资,而非短线买卖。

去年整体外汇基金投资回报率3.6%,撇除2008 年受金融海啸影响而见红,回报率是最近5年来最低。金管局总裁陈德霖归咎于金融海啸爆发后大量资金流入港元,外汇基金主要资产部分货币基础增至近1 万亿元: 「作为支持外汇基金,这部分资产只能持有最高信贷质素、短期和极高流动性的美元债务工具,这些工具在目前环境只能提供一个很低、甚至近乎零的回报。」撇除支持部分,则外汇基金里投资部分于去年回报率约6%。全年外汇基金支付政府财政储备费用为338 亿元,外汇基金累计盈余在去年增加379 亿元,至5914 亿元。

资金涌入被动持美债损回报

余伟文相信,资金涌入追逐港元资产,尚会持续一段时间,又指出由于美国公布第二轮量化宽松后令国库债券孳息率上升,影响第4 季债券投资损手。以稳健为投资大前题的外汇基金,目前投资基准参考股票和债券分别占25%和75%。助理总裁朱兆荃指出,减低债券部分即代表增持股票,风险较高,亦会影响外汇基金整体部署和投资策略。他续指债券部分包含现金, 「增加现金资产,将能减较低息率上升对我们的负面影响」,惟拒绝进一步透露投资策略。

对于今年外汇基金策略,陈德霖表示,美国经济基础因素仍然未有出现根本性改善,欧债危机不确定性持续,新兴经济体系面对资金涌入,又会采取不同类型的调控紧缩措施: 「一系列因素为今年宏观金融环境和投资市场带来不稳定性和不确定性,对今年金融市场展望仍持保持审慎态度。」

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 2. 滙丰展出钱罂比赛作品 提升储蓄及理财知识
明报 2011-01-27 资讯频道, B11

滙丰将早前举办的<小钱窿,大梦想)猪仔钱罂殴计sLL赛中的杰出作品,复制成巨型钱摩,并陈刚于港、九z,fi~地点’!fit.市民欣赏。展出的三十件作品,包括公开组和学校及小童群益会提交酌优曝设计,以及艺人张继聪的作品‘ [ 0 1 [

滙丰香港区个人难财业务匡管麦倩华表示: L理!..s-d-教官应从小开始,滙丰希望透过展览难一步提升公众对储蓄及理财知障的阅注。我们希望透过这个比赛’为家长提供卜个亲子机会,让他们旺参阵创作的过程中灌输正确的理财知识给子女0。作为一间植根本地社叵的险融机构,滙丰一直为香港的市民未众著想0,不断扩展社区银行的陋畴[’务求使香港不同的社群得到合适的银行服务’i 1 0

三十件杰出设计的巨型钱窿复制品分别于下列三阳地轴展出:滙丰总行大厦地面广场(、扛件作品陈列至、月28日) :铜降湾审德新街(、0件作品陈列至2月4 10:1) 黄埔新天地聚宝坊(6件作卑陈列至、月26.日),欢迎各界参观’ 0 1 6网址:、X/Ww hsbc.coI!a.hk,cor/munitybanking 1 0

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 3. 瑞银吁买入中信行
明报 2011-01-27 创富理财, B08

瑞银将中信银行(0998)目标价由5.8元轻微上调至6 元, 相当于市帐率1.5倍,以及2011 年市盈率11 倍水平,评级由「中性」上调至「买入」。

瑞银强烈地相信,内地监管当局把拨备对贷款比率要求提升至2.5%的可能性很大,因此相信中信行于未来数年将因拨备增加,而出现额外的盈利压力,但有见该股周二收市价5.13 元,相当于股息率3.3 厘,预测2011 年市盈率9 倍,以及预测2010 年市帐率1.2倍,故预期估值将出现支持。

瑞银将中信行的2011 年及2012 年每股盈利预测分别上调9%及6%,以反映收入增长动力预期为佳,而其2011 年盈利预测仍较市场预测为低。

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 4. 国际金融公司发1.5亿元人债
明报 2011-01-27 经济, B03

【明报专讯】国际金融公司(IFC)宣布在港发行5 年期人民币债券,息率为1.8 厘,集资1.5 亿元人民币,用于在内地宣传能源效益及减少温室气体排放的业务上。承销商为汇丰银行。汇丰总经理兼环球银行及资本市场亚太区主管冯婉眉表示,IFC 在港发行首只人民币债券,展示发债人认同香港具备能力成为离岸人民币债券市场,并能吸引重要投资者。

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 5. 国航估值吸引 中线看9.5 元
明报 2011-01-27 创富理财, B06

三大中资航空股昨日齐齐起飞,升幅都超过4%,市场给予的理由是人民币汇价创新高。

人民币对美元汇率中间价昨日报6.5878,连续第2 个交易日创汇改以来新高。人民币升值诚然利好航空股,利好主要来自三方面:外币负债贬值减轻航空股的债务负担,主要以美元结算的航材和航油价格相对下降,经营性租赁租金降低。不过,人民币升值不自今日开始,为什么在过去一段时间人民币持续升值,但航空股股价却江河日下,要到了昨日才略见起色。

去年急升现调整近半升幅

航空股自去年10 月开始展现弱势,其实是因为在去年大幅攀升后,积聚回吐压力。以中国国航(0753)为例,其股价自2009 年底6 元水平起步,升至去年10 月最高11.64 元,差不多翻了一番。现时回至8 元左右,差不多调整了去年升幅的一半。11 月份一向是中国航空业淡季,三大航企的营运数据都呈现放缓,给予市场看淡航空股的借口。加上担心高铁运行网络威胁航空业发展,更加速航空股跌势。

国航最近公布了去年12 月份营运数据,旅客周转量同比增长9.86%,环比增长1.64%,增幅为2005 年以来历年最高。客座率为77.7%,同比增长2.37%,不仅超过09 年同期,也大幅高于07年同期,居于历史最高位。至于货运方面,12 月份货运量同比增长23.29%,表现维持强劲。

国际航线多高铁影响微

至于市场忧虑高铁可能对航空业造成冲击,似乎被过分夸大。京沪高铁今年开通,对以上海为主营基地的东航(0670)冲击可能最大,国航由于国际航线比例最高,受影响应较为轻微。至于南航(1055),今年建成的高铁线路与其航线重叠性低,所以亦不会构成重大影响。

经过过去3 个月的回落,三大航空股的股价已回落至具吸引水平。以国航为例,其2011 年度预测市盈率已降至不足8 倍。近日其股价跌近8元水平,技术上似在营造双底,如能升回250 天线(8.65 元)之上,将是初步回稳信号,中线目标看9.5 元。

撰文:黄玮杰

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 6. 拆息急升 内地加息在即
明报 2011-01-27 创富理财, B07

人民银行多番努力下,内地流动性终于有受控之象,只是事态的发展总是由一个极端走向另一个极端发展,由流动性过剩转向资金紧张。其中上海银行同业隔夜拆息,日前大幅抽高216.34 个点子(即2.1634 厘)至7.2042 厘,是2007 年底以来的高位,显示内地银行体系资金严重紧张。影响所及,不单内地股市跌至近4 个月的新低,更是拖累港股反弹乏力,走势偏软。

据报道,内地各商业银行正在紧急「煞停」1 月份的信贷。与此同时,人行和银监会已就调控信贷的分工达成共识。人行和银监会双管齐下管控信贷,央行采取动态差别存款准备金率,而银监会则透过贷存比、业务进入及银信理财融资类业务入表等方式加以控制。

银行资金压力较预期严峻

资金趋紧,固然是中央有意为之,亦是农历新年前的必然现象,只是今年远较预期为的严峻,显示市场已开始预计短期内加息,并反映在同业拆息上。为了缓和短期的资金压力,人民银行向市场拆出资金,过至几日已向市场投入3500 亿元(人民币?下同),大约等于调高准备金0.5 个百分点所带来的资金压力;不过人行旗下的中国《金融时报》指出,有关措施并不意味着人行将会放松流动性闸门,只是缓和局部流动性紧张态势,之后人行依然将流动性调控为首要任务。

内地银行资金紧张的情况,在1 月18 日开始出现,主要是反映人行1 月14 日调高准备金0.5 个百分点所带来的资金压力。人行多次调高存款准备金率的威力开始显现,内地的流动性偏紧的情况逐渐明显,导至近期拆息大幅抽升。

加息后是中港股市安全期

表面上央行通过提高存款准备金率0.5 个百分点,大约冻结银行体系3500 亿元,可是随后向市场投放3500 亿元,似乎使市场内的流动性维持不变。不过,一收一放之间,不单资金获得转移,惩罚流动性不足的银行(他们必须付出较高资金成本),同时令市场息率升高、投资者意识到中央收紧银根的决心。、

央行收紧货币政策的大方向不变,未来加准备金率、加息、公开市运作等一系列的调控措施将会出台。以目前银行同业拆息狂升的情况来看,年前加息的机会颇高。如是,在下次加息或加准备金率前,将是股市的安全期,内地股市及港股均有机会出现较大幅度的反弹。

唐焱中国光大控股市场策略部主管

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 7. 英央行两委员撑加息
明报 2011-01-27 国际金融, A23

美国联储局举行议息会议之际,英伦银行昨发布本月政策会议的会议纪录,显示加息问题已摆上决策议程,而且更有两名委员在会上投票支持调高央行基准利率。会议纪录显示,英伦银行货币政策委员会成员威尔(Martin Weale)与森坦斯(Andrew Sentance)支持将基准利率从0.5%的纪录低点上调至0.75%,其中森坦斯自2010 年6 月以来便呼吁逐步加息,今次获威尔和应令市场意外。另外7 名委员赞成维持利率不变,但当中不少人对中期通胀可能高于央行的2%目标水平表达忧虑,2 月通胀报告将成为他们评估物价前景的重要指标。英国12 月通胀升至3.7%,是8 个月内高位。英伦银行行长默文.金(Mervyn King)周二警告,未来数月通胀可能进一步向5%水平迈进。

未料及上季经济收缩

这次议息会议在1 月12 日至13 日举行,英伦银行决策层当时并未准确掌握去年底恶劣天气对经济的冲击,他们预期,英国经济在去年底与今年初将大体追随全球趋势增长。英国周二公布去年第4 季GDP 意外收缩0.5%,降低了市场对英伦银行在今年上半年收紧货币政策的预期,英镑应声大跌。英镑昨在会议纪录加息消息带动下反弹,但涨幅有限。

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 8. 逾40 年经验: 买楼是最好投资
明报 2011-01-27 地产, B05

从事地产行业已经有40 多个年头的赵世曾,相信最能体会香港土地、「砖头」有价的道理,他笑言: 「个别山顶老牌豪宅楼价的累积升幅,40 年来足足有100 倍;同期香港的土地价格,上升幅度就更加系几百倍、甚至是1000 倍!现时你将钱放落银行,根本不能保值。长远来讲,楼价一定会上升,买楼肯定是在香港最好的投资。」

他续称: 「现时最大既问题,是放钱落银行不能保值,如果单靠收息,根本不能维持生活。」

赵世曾笑言,如果他自己「只得」1 亿元身家,至少会将5000 万元用于买楼, 「至少可以令自己住得舒舒服服!买楼除了可以博升值外,另一好处就是不需要交租。如果租楼住,业主每隔两年都会加租,交租条数其实相当『襟计』。」

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 9. 内地4部门齐保证 输港物资充足
明报 2011-01-27 港闻, A10

【明报驻京记者刘洪庆报道】内地商务部、质监局、防汛抗旱总指挥部、国家能源局等4 大部门昨日罕有齐齐公开表态,保证对香港供应充足,并保证品质安全等。食材价格去年虽大幅上涨,商务部却指出,内地去年输港活鸡批发价较去年下降2.8%、活猪批发价下降1%,仅活牛加价1.8%。

对于香港市场活禽畜价格增幅似不止前述数字,商务部外贸司司长王受文解释,主要是因香港租金费用提高、人工加幅等影响。他说,内地去年的通胀数字高于香港。言下之意,能维持如此温和加幅已是中央控制的结果。

国家能源局石油和天然气司副司长胡卫平披露,供港的西气东输二线工程将于今年年底竣工,届时来自土库曼等国家的天然气将可对港供应。

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10. 宏桥毛利纯利率 远胜中铝俄铝 今起招股 最多集172亿
明报 2011-01-27 经济, B03

【明报记者邓亮报道】魏桥纺织(2698)大股东张士平家族旗下的宏桥集团(1378)今日起公开发售,集资最多172.26 亿元,成为2011 年首只集资规模逾百亿元的大型新股。值得一提的是,该公司2010 年首9 个月业绩大反弹,毛利率及纯利率均突然较2009 年底急升逾20 个百分点,至高达38.3%及28.1%,大幅高出中铝(2600)及俄铝(0486)同期水平。

行政总裁:有把握控制成本

中铝去年上半年的毛利率及纯利率只有6.3%及1.34%,俄铝首三季相关数字亦不过32%及17.6%。宏桥行政总裁张波直言,公司2010 年的赚钱能力全行最高,他更相信未来至少能够维持目前的盈利水平,主要是公司有把握控制成本。

2010 年该公司旗下热电厂使用增加,令电力成本骤降75%,加上其氧化铝采购价亦下跌7%,期内每吨铝产品成本降低23.6%;同时去年首9 个月的铝产品销售价量分别增加38.4%及17.2%。

宏桥去年首三季从供应商高新铝电获得的氧化铝平均采购价约1590 元,较中国现货氧化铝市场价2326 元低逾30%。宏桥解释,公司是高新铝电的最大客户,故可享较低的折扣。

一手入场费5000

宏桥去年首9 个月不仅盈利指标大升,营业收入亦已超出2009 年全年的21.6%,纯利更是高出2009 年4.1 倍。该公司于招股书预测,2010 年溢利将不少于41 亿元(人民币?下同),以此计算按年增幅高达7.4 倍。宏桥今次发售17.4 亿股新股,集资123.54 亿至172.26 亿元,一手500 股入场费4999.9元,大年初九(2 月11 日)挂牌。

中慧暗盘升2.5%

另一边厢, 今日挂牌的中慧国际(1143),上市前夕暗盘价做好。据辉立交易场资料显示,中慧暗盘开市报1.3 元,较招股价1.2 元升8.3%,惟随后升幅回落, 收报1.23 元, 仅升2.5%,一手帐面赚60 元。中慧一手中签率40.01% , 申请30 手方可稳获1手。

此外,以配售形式挂牌的宏峰太平洋(8265),昨日首日上市亦报捷,最高升至1.04 元,升幅达30%,其后显著回落,收市报0.87 元,较配售价0.8 元升8.8%。

www.mpfinance.com/ipo.htm

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11. MTR商场「兔喜扬眉」限量版利是封 揉合iPhone「扩增实境」技术及3D游戏
明报 2011-01-27 资讯频道, B11

今个兔年为了突显大家尊贵的身份,M丁日商场特别重金设计用枓矜贵的L兔喜扬眉0限量版利是封,以瑰丽显赫的红色织锦衬托出金兔刺绣的显赫不凡!为富贵兔年率先打响头炮。此外,M丁R商场更为利是封的设计带来了革命性的突破,首次将利是封揉合了3D扩增实境(Augmen.ted RealitV)技术,让大家凭利是封启动厂M丁日Malls iPI、。ne App 0的贺年游戏,赢取丰富奖赏,拿下兔年头彩,从此大家除了著眼于利是封的华丽外表及里面的『利是钱}外,亦可期待惊喜满fun的8phone游戏,绝对是大家今年拜年时最潮的热话。

大家如果想换领高贵大方又有趣迟人的厂兔喜扬眉]利是封,由即日至2月2日期间,于德福广场及青衣城凭电子货币(信压卡、易办事或八达通)即日单一消费满HK$300或以上,即可凭有效收据免费换领厂M丁日Malls兔喜扬眉利是封]乙套c

新年派利是绝对是身份的象征,而大家所选择的利是封更可突显个人的风格及形象,为了迎合大家富贵显赫的地位,M丁日商场特意以厂红0运当头的丝滑织锦重金打造了一系列限量版厂兔喜扬眉0利是封,红色的织锦有如为玉兔穿上绫罗网锻,营造出最富丽堂皇的气派。查询电话:2.75(,0877(德福广场)

2186.7284.(青衣城)

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12. 长和腾讯力撑 恒指升54点 受制内地「水紧」短期难突破
明报 2011-01-27 经济, B01

【明报专讯】持续受到内地「水紧」困扰、连日下挫的港股, 终于在长和系以及腾讯(0700) 「发力」下扭转跌势,收市升54 点并重上23800 点水平。腾讯继筹组50 亿元人民币产业基金后,再伙拍日本手机社交网络商建立手机社交平台,该公司收市升1.86%,报202.8 元。

二三线股高位沽压大

恒指轻微高开14 点后一度倒跌126 点,其后在内地沪、深股市反弹下升幅一度扩大至187点,不过迫近24000 点后再遇庞大沽压,恒指收市升幅收窄至54 点,报23843 点,成交增加至682.12 亿元。获主席李嘉诚父子频频增持的和黄(0013)升逾2%,升至95.8 元,而长实(0001)则上升0.52%至134.3 元。市场人士认为,近期内地「水紧」的问题持续困扰港股,相信港股短期难有突破。

一名外资交易员向本报指出: 「内地资金短缺问题持续困扰港股,恒指短期以上落市为主,部分早前强势的二、三线股在高位遇到庞大沽压。」他表示,虽然中央向市场注入3000亿元人民币短期资金解困,但长远仍然会维持货币紧缩政策,相信春节后会上调利率。

除了长和系表现较为突出,近期动作多多的腾讯,股价再升3.7 元,升至202.8 元。日本最大社交网站Gree 表示,与腾讯合作筹组企业联盟,将协助腾讯建立适用于手机的社交游戏平台。该公司指出,将会提供科技以及知识,目前与Gree 合作的部分游戏开发商将可以透过腾讯的新平台,为内地用户提供游戏。

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13. 互联网用户突破20亿
明报 2011-01-27 国际, A22

联合国的国际电信联盟(ITU) 秘书长图尔(Hamadoun Toure)昨公布,全球今年初起有20.8 亿互联网用户,比2009 年底的18.6 亿,增加2.2 亿,比2000 年初的2.5 亿增长8 倍。以全球逾68 亿人口计算,即平均每3 个人,就有1 人使用互联网,约57%网民来自发展中国家。据该组织3 年前公布的资料,当时发展中国家的网民数目,已首度超越发达国家。图尔又指,全球手机用户数目亦突破50 亿门槛,是2000 年初的10 倍,未来将继续增加。法新社/中央社

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14. 田径新径界 渣打马拉松嘉年华 放松心情 享受热闹气氛
明报 2011-01-27 特刊, A38

渣打马拉松将于下月

20曰举行!相信大部分选手都作好准备,预备于比赛当日大展身手,突破个人最佳成绩。由香港业余田径总会主办,渣打银行冠名赞助的『渣打马拉松嘉年华』即将于2月、2及、3日假维多利亚公园中央草坪举行。

各位跑手可依照接纳通知书上之指定日期及时间,前往嘉年华领取选手包之余’亦可到马拉松嘉年华逛一圈’因为大会准备了各5(各样的活动,包括表演、摊位游戏及

展览等’务求让跑手于比赛前能够放松心情’尽情享受嘉年; 华的热闹气氛。 。

为了让跑手认识马拉松的相关资讯及选取更合适的运动产品,大会特别邀请到不同的赞助商及机构于嘉年华中层示乌拉松的相关资讯以及让跑手选取吏合适的运动产品。当中包括: New Baoa外Ce的新款跑鞋及运动用品、撒隆巴斯的各类镇痛产品、丁ri-goBacanCe Bar’得力素糖、屈匣氏蒸馏水’表等均为跑手提供林林总总的畏跑r补品7 :冠名赞助商一一渣打镍行(香港)隋限公司亦设有专区,为跑手提供{厂跑出信念 的资讯:至于其他赞助商,包捆Pure Fit}less及P。AD的展览摊位,亦会展示马拉松相关的讯息’带跑手进入马拉松的世界‘ 0

.L I与去年一样,香港理工大学康复治疗科学系派出庞大队伍,即塌为跑手解答因运动产生伤患的疑难,让跑芋了解个队体质状况‘大会除致力提倡健康跑步生活0,亦尽力为社区及慈善团体出力。大会筹款良惠机构包括厂香港防癌会7’厂香港残疾队奥委会暨伤残人士体育协会7及{厂看得见的希望』于嘉及对象,为同样需要打气的社群发放更多资讯。而厂香港运动禁药委员会1 0亦设有摊位’为市民提供运动禁药的相关资讯。

:宁游戏区小朋友樊[帮场内亦设有厂缤FUn天地』及厂玩乐世界7’顾名思义就是游戏区,绝对是小朋友的乐园。小朋友可以到厂缤Fun天地 参观全港中小学生设计的厂巨型跑鞋0 ,亦可以到『小丑扭波王国]、『马拉松卡通素描j及『马拉松金粉纹身及扭扭金字 参加较为静态的活动。

厂玩乐世界 当然会有与长跑有关的游戏厂小小马拉松[ ,让年纪尚小的小朋友能够一尝跑马拉松滋味,大会更会为小朋友提供个人完成的时间,模拟真正马拉松,从而感受跑步所带来的乐趣。小朋友更可以参加厂挑战高峰1的厂吹气高山]试验一下攀登能力: r流动绳网』则要考验小朋友的胆识。大人小朋友累了,还可以到厂表演剧场j观赏简单而隆重的颁奖典礼、健身示范、啦啦队比赛、唱作比赛以及DJ打气活动等。

r渣打马拉松嘉年华20P P 0足以让一家老幼轻松愉快玩一天。要留意开放时间,两天均由早上九时三十分开始至晚上七时结束,入场费全免,让你有足够的时间参观各种资讯及尝试场内各种游戏! 、详请可浏览网址:WWW.hkmarathon.corn瞪绍亡一砵

为配合马拉徕的LL赛,多条道路将于20、、年2月20曰(星]期日)零时起分阶段陆续临时封闭。当中包括市区方向的青屿3干线(青马大楠)上层通道、汀九桥、介乎长声隧道引路与西9九龙公路之间酌一应青沙公路(包括昂船洲大桥及南湾隧]道)、长青隧达’昔葵公路、西九龙公路、港皋方向的西区海]底隧道管道及升乎雉园道与筲箕湾之间的一段枣区走廊全线’[尖沙咀、中区{湾件北的部分路段,以及铜锣湾骆克道’束角0道、记利佐治律及酋德新街购物区附近一带道串’有关的道路!将会实施交通改道聋排’ 0 1

运输署预计{英墓道、箕箕湾道、告士打道卜干诺道中’花0园道往金钟道方向珠红磡海底隧道的交通会比卜般的星期日显0著繁忙及挤塞{驾肆人士请特别留意比赛当日的封路安排’如0非必要,请尽拿避弗驾车前往受影响/挤塞的恤区,尤其是中[环及铜锣湾地区。如遇交通受阻’驾驶人士请保持忍让,遵从警方的指示,并留意传媒发放的最新交通消息。

此外’由于封路及改道关系,所有受影响的公共运输服务的行车时间及班次都可能出现不稳定的情况,市民应预先计划行程路线和考虑使用替代路线,并预留额外的行程时间。同时亦需特别留意当天传媒发放有关封路及交通改道安排的交通消息。各公共运输营办商亦会张贴通告,通知乘客有关的临时安排。

运输署及警方将视乎情况或需在短时间内采取其他临时交通和运输措施,包括进一步的封路、交通改道、更改及取消公共运输服务。所有驾驶人士及使用公共运输服务的乘客请不时留意最新的交通消息‘

运输署稍后会在运输署网页WWW.td.gov.hk公布有关的特别交通及运输服务的安排,市民可以浏览以获取相关的资料‘

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15. 全球最大商品交易商 嘉能可入表申港上市
明报 2011-01-27 经济, B03

本港锐意吸引海外企业前来挂牌的努力,今年料逐渐显现成果。早前仍在斟酌亚洲上市地点的全球最大商品交易商嘉能可(Glencore),据悉已向港交所递交上市申请,在港的港集资规模约25 亿美元(约195 亿港元)。

另据《华尔街日报》报道,现于英国上市的哈萨克斯坦铜矿公司Kazakhmys 亦计划今年上半年来港第二上市,集资总额6 亿美元。

哈萨克铜矿股拟港挂牌

若Kazakhmys 落实在港挂牌,将是首家在香港上市的哈萨克斯坦公司。消息指,花旗及中金负责安排该公司的上市事宜。

据外电报道,嘉能可拟于香港及伦敦合共集资100 亿美元,当中本港的集资规模料介乎20 亿至25 亿美元,相当于总集资额的20%至25%。市场人士相信,在港上市可扩阔嘉能可的投资者基础,以及为其获得更高的估值。花旗、瑞信及摩根士丹利负责安排其上市。

嘉能可于2009 年已酝酿上市,当年传闻该公司引入多名重量级投资者,包括内地主权基金中投、新加坡主权基金淡马锡,及基金公司贝莱德(Blackrock)、CapitalGroup 及富达(Fidelity),合共注资10 亿至15 亿美元。随后该公司宣布总共发行了一批价值20 亿美元的可换股债券,完成上市后该批债券更将转为普通股,紫金矿业(2899)亦认购了其中2 亿美元。

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16. 主席增持显信心 理文造纸吸引
明报 2011-01-27 创富理财, B06

理文造纸(2314) 上半年度受废纸及煤等原材料价涨打击,盈利仅能微增,拖累股价表现低沉,但现价的估值已开始浮现吸引力。据联交所资料显示,理文造纸主席李运强周一以均价5.54 元增持630.60 万股公司股份,涉资3492 万元,持股量升至52.80%。

事实上,理文造纸业务前景依然乐观,该公司今年在重庆及东莞洪梅将有3 条产能共达150 万吨的生产线投产,明年中再有两条年产能达90万吨生产线投产,令总产能提升至接近700 万吨,为收入增长提供动力。

此外,理文造纸去年成功引入日本制纸成为策略性股东,并已利用日本制纸对涂布白板纸经验,令其中一台纸机生产高档涂布白板纸,令开发高档次及高利润产品取得突破,对集团改善毛利率提供空间。

撰文:查数王

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17. 上实折让大 攻守兼备
明报 2011-01-27 创富理财, B06

港股连跌4 日后反弹,惟力度不算强,但总算是连跌多天后首现反弹,仍值得留意,昨天因内地股市回勇带动,恒指尾段最多升188 点,但高位迅速回顺,收市仅升54 点,收报23843 元。

期指本周五结算,大市走势波动早在预期之内,但个别股份走势飘忽,要炒股不炒市亦不容易。日前急跌的电力设备股、皇朝家俬(1198)及中高精密(0591)昨天速弹,部分热炒的六福(0590)、波司登(3998)及东岳(0189)却又忽然急回,可见即使以股价表现较硬净的股份出击,亦可能随时中伏,短期以传统股份入手为上算。

上海实业(0363)近年积极落实业务重组,继前年成功剥离联华超市(0980)、光明乳业及中芯(0981)等非核心资产后,早前再退出激烈竞争的造纸业务,强化公司以房地产、基建设施及消费品为重心发展的资源运用。

积极重组减少业务范围

事实上,集团在三大业务均有重大的部署发展,在基建业务上,集团已在上海以外的地区如珠江三角州、成都、重庆和武汉等地区物色高速公路项目併购机会。上实透过合营公司中环水务发展水务业务继续取得进展,去年上年半成功转亏为盈。再者,中环水务另一股东──中国节能环保集团的背景雄厚,其为隶属国资委唯一一家以节能减排、环境保护为主业的企业,这将对争取在「十二五」水利建设发展占有优势。

此外,集团的烟草业务及印刷业务调整成效逐步显现,其中新增的金属包装业务发展不足一年已取得盈利,未来可以成为业务增长的新亮点。不过,市场的焦点仍为房地产业务上。上海房产税试点工作似箭在弦上,内地「限购令」的实行均为上实的房产收入构成压力。然而,上实去年收购上实城市开发(0563)(前称中新地产)股权,进一步扩张房地产业务版图,增加二、三线城市土地储备,有助减低单一地区政策风险。

购母资产将成整合平台

同时上实收购母公司旗下沪A 股上实发展控股权预计今年首季度完成,这一方面可加强集团土储,并取得极具发展潜力的崇明岛土地的优先开发权,有利长远发展。交易亦意味着上实将成为母公司及上海市国资房地产的地产主要整合平台,未来可望获注入更多资产。

综合来看,上实的基建及消费品业务可继续受惠内地经济增长及发展,为公司带来稳健的盈利贡献及现金流,以及支持集团房地产业务更快速的发展。参考德银的报告估计上实每股资产净值达68 元,该股现价较资产净值折让达50%,以其2011 年预测市盈利不足10 倍,息率达4 厘的条件,绝对可成为市况不明下进可攻退可守之选。

撰文:刘思明

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18. 内地二套房需六成首期
明报 2011-01-27 经济, B01

【明报专讯】从限购令推向全国,到重庆、上海市长确认房产税试点,再到新华社连篇累牍的报道,内地房市新一轮调控早有预兆。昨日国家总理温家宝主持国务院常务会议,再推8项措施,辣手摧房价:要求地方政府在一季度公布房价控制目标;又将二套房首付比例调高到六成;对于五年内出售的新房,全额征收营业税。

地方政府首季须订房价目标

这是继去年4 月及9 月两度推出房地产调控政策后,中央在不足1 年时间内第3 度出招压抑楼市。诸条新政中,最辣条款是要地方政府确保各地房价增幅,跟经济增长速度和收入增加水平相平衡,并要在首季度制定以及公布房价控制目标。

瑞信分析师杜劲松认为,此条款将对房市带来极大影响,受伤最深的当属高端住房。为了确保实现价格调控目标,地方政府将限制高端房销售,或要求地产商低价抛售,无论是哪种情况都对高端房发展商造成很大打击。华润置地(1109) , 中国海外(0688) , 世房(0813) , 绿城(3900),龙湖(0960)等内房股均会受政策牵连。

购房不足5 年易手征楼价5%税

其他重要调整包括,二套房贷首付比例从五成调高到六成,同时还允许人民银行分支机构自行提高二套房的首期比例和贷款利率;住房不足5 年转手交易的,一律按销售收入全额征收5%的营业税,对比原先普通住房只需按销售差价缴纳营业税,炒房的税收代价已然翻倍。而重庆市长黄奇帆则在昨日透露,将当地房产税率分为10 级,他提到台湾台北的税率分别为1%,2%和3%, 「比我们收得狠」,而外界推测重庆税率将为1%左右。他又指出,此次针对高端房征税,而高端房占全市房屋总量仅一成,不会给老百姓造成负担。另外,市场传闻上海房产税将在本周启动,上海政府发言人称发令枪在中央政府,只等中央令下。

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19. 力劲势成OPM股 宜逢低吸纳
明报 2011-01-27 创富理财, B07

短线可以留意昨日创52 新高的力劲科技(0558)。该股日前成功引入了内地一个私募基金为公司股东,并成功集资了逾4 亿元。由于公司本身已集齐了增长元素于一身,以及配合今年产能大增及订单有稳定增长,前景自然可看高一线,难怪会有基金入局。既然力劲已获私募基金看中,估计稍后应会有更多机构投资者也会看上该股,因此趁该股并未完成为OPM(Other People Money)股前上车,中长线博其成为亿和(0838)的翻版,倍倍声上升,不过短线先博见国元证券早前所定的3.42 元目标价。

内地大型私募基金入股

力劲按每股2.5 元,向China Machinery 发行1.02 亿新股(占扩大后股本9.02%);本金额1.45 亿元行使价2.5 元,可兑换5800 万新股的永久可换股证券,以及2560 万份行使价3.125元的认股权证, 集资总额4 亿元。ChinaMachinery 由方源资本全资控股,后者为专注于中国市场的最大规模私募股权投资基金之一。虽然配股价2.5 元较现价2.95 元有相当的折让,但由于涉及股数不少,再加上有一手行使价为3.125 元的认股权证跟尾,这尚算可以接受。更重要的一点,这类私募基金的特性,就是投资回报往往是倍倍声。

业绩强力复苏看5.44元

其实,力劲的基本面相当不俗,其主要从事热室及冷室压铸机、注塑机及相关配件设计制造销业,为中国最大压铸机制造商之一。经历前年行业低潮后,力劲去年业绩呈强力复苏,截至去年9 月止半个年度,公司营额达12.4 亿元,同比劲增1.3 倍,期内扭亏为盈,录得1.32亿元盈利,预期目前手头订单金额应已增至8亿至10 亿元,按年呈双位数增长,旗下深圳、江苏及昆山厂房及加工中心于去年底前正式全面投产,总产能较目前增25%,意即营业额有

望在今年提升到31亿元。

力劲在去年5 月已增持汽车设备制造商IDRA至全资拥有,有助加强内地及欧洲接单,以今年保持中期业绩的10.65%纯利率计算,全年盈利高达3.3 亿元,折合每股盈利0.272 元(以所有新股发行后,总股数逾12 亿股计),再以20倍市盈率推算的目标价可望为5.44 元,应符合私募基金的胃口。

撰文:陈承龙

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20. 国情咨文称太空竞赛式挑战重临 奥巴马4提中国 倡科教兴美
明报 2011-01-27 国际, A22

美国总统奥巴马昨发表任内第2 份国情咨文,提出四大施政重点,呼吁与共和党携手推动教育、创新科技、发展基建、提高政府效率,助美国「赢得未来」。奥巴马重点讚扬中国重视教育与科研,警告美国正面对美苏太空竞赛式挑战,须急起直追,言语间突显他关注中国崛起对美国经济力量及全球影响力的威胁。

奥巴马以「这一代的斯普特尼克(Sputnik)时刻(指美苏太空竞赛)」,形容与各国的「未来」之争,强调政府投资科研、基建及教育的必要。「苏联半世纪前击败美国,抢先发射斯普特尼克(Sputnik)号人造卫星,我们当时不知如何从登月竞赛收复失地。当时没有这种科技,连太空总署(NASA)也未成立。但当我们投资更好的研究及教育,我们不但超越苏联,更掀起创新浪潮,开拓新的(航天)工业及数百万计新职位。」

4 大重点助美「赢得未来」

奥巴马称,美国如今在基建方面已被别国超前,「中国建了最快的火车及更新的机场……韩国(南韩)的住户上网率比美国高,俄罗斯等欧洲国家在道路及铁路的投资亦超越美国」。他说: 「当前问题是新职位和新工业将植根于美国,还是其他国家。问题是美国的领导地位能否延续,使美国继续成为世界之光。」

奥巴马强调,创新一向是美国谋生的重要手段,美国虽然需解决不断上升的财赤,但不应因此削减一些可助增强竞争力的新支出。他呼吁共和党控制的众议院支持政府推动美苏太空竞赛以来最大的科研投资,期望令美国在2015 年前成为世上首个有百万部电动汽车在路上行走的国家,以打破对石化燃料的倚赖。

他提出创新科技须以发展教育作后盾,预计未来10年,近半数新职位都需要大专以上学历,但全国四分之一学生连这学历也没有。他期望10 年内额外培训10万个数学及科学教师,提高教育质素。在基建方面,他建议兴建新机场,发展覆盖八成人口的高铁网,并将宽频覆盖率提高至全国98%人口。

10 年培训10 万科学教师

奥巴马在国情咨文四度谈及中国,并以「中国成立了世上最大的民营太阳能研究机构,制造出世上运算速度最快的电脑」为例,解释美国透过改善教育来「赢得未来」。他指出, 「中国和印度等国家都意识到,如果作出一些改变,就可以在这个新世界中竞争」,因此这些国家都提早让儿童接受教育,着重数学和科学,投资科研及新技术。

冻结5 年开支削赤4000 亿美元

在改革政府方面,他没有像共和党要求的那样详细阐述精减政府的措施,但承诺透过合併等措施对联邦政府进行重组,并将提交一份计划供国会表决。他表明反对大幅削减未来退休者的福利,但为小幅削福利留下空间。在减赤方面,他未有套用由国会两党委员会提出的减赤建议,只提出冻结未来5 年非安全性开支,声称这可使未来10 年预算赤字减少逾4000 亿美元。纽约时报/卫报/华尔街日报

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21. 律师高国峻手握密函录像 称证赌王欲四房均分 追回股权
明报 2011-01-27 港闻, A05

赌王分家 上接A4

外籍律师高国峻(Gordon Oldham)声称代表赌王何鸿燊,向何鸿燊的二房和三房太太及子女追讨澳门娱乐的控股权,成了两房亲属的眼中钉。到底高国峻有何能耐,够胆太岁头上动土?除了得到四房太太、澳门博彩常务董事梁安琪背后撑腰,高国峻手上的秘密武器,还有何鸿燊指示他采取法律行动的录像,以及何鸿燊签署的向二房女儿何超凤追究迟迟不把澳娱股权作四房平均分配安排。

明报记者 刘进图

不过,律师的委任和解聘,始终取决于客人的一句话。香港大学法律学院张达明教授指出,如果律师获得客户指示后,客户在家人的影响下提出相反的立场,甚至表示解聘律师,律师只能够设法跟客户再会面,甚至邀请专科医生一起会见,确认客户神志清醒可以给予指示,并建议客户尽量避免与会影响他改变主意的人一起,但及后客户若真的受家人影响又再改变立场,律师也没办法,除非能够质疑客户当时已神志不清,但一般情况下律师会选择退出。换言之,谁与客户最后在一起,谁就有可能得到「最后的胜利」。

可邀医生确认客户神志清醒

据《南华早报》昨日披露一封密函,何鸿燊今年1月5 日曾致函二房女儿何超凤,表示尽管跟她就他的财产分配谈过多次,12 月底却赫然发现,她在自己不知情及未同意下,将控制澳娱的Lanceford 公司股份从只有2 股增至1 万股,分配给两家公司(二房及三房拥有),他尝试打电话和发短讯了解原因,女儿却不回覆,他要求女儿超凤在48 小时内到浅水湾大宅当面解释,并带同Lanceford 持有的澳娱股份,以便平均分配给长房何超贤、二房蓝琼缨、三房陈婉珍和四房梁安琪,这是他一贯的意愿,若女儿不履行要求,他唯有通过法律途径达成上述股份转移。这封信有何鸿燊的签名,并且附本抄送上述四房代表。

发签名密函时赌王精神尚好

法律界人士指出,这封密函发出时,何鸿燊的精神状态尚好,能公开活动,而收到密函的人都不怀疑函件真确性,何超凤一方披露的1 月7 日函件正是对此函件的回应,声称已按父亲意思分配股权,可见函件反映当时何鸿燊的意愿,而律师高国峻声讨其后公布的二、三房独得澳娱控制权的行动,便显得出师有名。

高国峻向《金融时报》透露,何鸿燊授权他采取行动追回Lanceford 控股权的经过是有录影为证据的。

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22. 去年广告开支按年上升19%
明报 2011-01-27 行销攻略, B12

根据admanGo 的广告资料服务报告,2010 年全年的本地整体广告开支为309.85 亿元(假设媒体给予的折扣为4 折?下同),与2009 年全年的261.14 亿元相比,按年增长约19%。

其中, 第1、2 季的增长高达24%和23%,第3、4 季的增长则不约而同放缓至15%。去年12 月份的本地广告开支高达30.84 亿元,乃全年最高的单月支出,比2009 年同期上升15%;与11 月相比,亦有7%的升幅。

银行业全年带头

纵观去年全年,银行业连续12个月都成为广告开支最高的行业。在众多的银行产品和服务中,以私人贷款的广告占最大比例,其次则是信用卡和认股证。另外,银行的招聘广告去年亦大增,与2009 年相比,升幅竟然超过10 倍。

在广告开支最高的十大行业中,地产业录得最高的广告开支升幅, 按年上升47% 。暂时看来,似乎地产业还未受到政府的打击炒风措施影响而削减广告开支。

录得第2 大广告开支升幅的,则是饮品业。其中主要是因为奶粉广告大增。自由行内地游客对奶粉的需求殷切,令奶粉商全年都不手软。唯一录得广告开支跌幅的,则是娱乐业。主要跌幅来自唱片广告,按年减少多达两成。

汇丰重膺最大广告商

在广告开支最高的十大公司中,汇丰控股(0005)重夺第一位(2009 年曾跌至第七)。奇怪的是,2009 年排名第一的药厂葛兰素史克(GSK)和排名第三的狮王,去年均跌出十大。

花旗银行则重新打入十大广告商之列,由2009 年的第28 位,急升至第6 位,广告开支按年上升多达116%。

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23. 《党史》二卷「彻底」否定「文革」?
明报 2011-01-27 副刊世纪, D04

 2011 年是中国共产党成立九十周年,《中国共产党历史》第二卷(1949 年—1978 年)由中央党史出版社最近正式出版。

《党史》二卷反映1949 年10 月中华人民共和国成立到1978 年12 月党的十一届三中全会召开这29 年的历史。2002 年出版的《中国共产党历史》第一卷记述的是1921 年至1949 年的中共历史。

1995 啓动,《党史》二卷但到现在才出版,曾主管二卷编撰和修改的中共中央党史研究室原副主任张啓华接受内地媒体采访时说, 「编撰历经数十多轮修改,并报送百余位领导和专家学者审查、讨论」。

「这一时期我们党在工作上、指导思想上,犯过错误,有些是严重错误。这就是邓小平说的,我们搞了20 年『左』,指的是在1957 年『反右』至1976 年『文化大革命』结束这段时期所犯的『左』倾错误。研究这段党史回避不了犯错误这个问题。」张啓华说,毛泽东是主要领导人,负有主要责任,但中共作为一个领导集体,也负有集体责任。

如何评价「文化大革命」的十年呢? 张啓华说,「文化大革命」是要彻底否定的。毛泽东发动「文化大革命」的主要论点,是「左」倾错误的论点,曾经被概括为「无产阶级专政下继续革命的理论」。因此,二卷对「文化大革命」要彻底否定。然而,张啓华强调, 「文化大革命」和「文革十年」是两个概念。「文革」是这十年中发生的最大的一件事,但在这十年中, 「在某些领域也有取得的成就。比如外交、科技、经济发展等领域。」因此, 「文化大革命」时期的十年历史取得的「成就」亦出现在二卷中。张啓华否认这是在美化「文革」,认为要区分「文化大革命」和「文化大革命」时期,这是胡绳提出的一个观点。

中国人民大学国际关系学院政治学系教授张鸣则认为,将文革的政治运动和十年的历史过程分开「实际上等于是肯定文革」。从他自己的研究来看,这段历史的时间不能被「偷」走。「国家连基本维持都困难了。还有何成就可谈呢?」对于张啓华所言「二卷特别强调这些错误是我们党自己发现、自己纠正的。」张鸣则不赞同,他说这是中共当时濒临崩溃时的自救。

上世纪五六十年代之交,在中国大陆发生了一场历史上罕见的大饑荒,刘少奇当年曾对毛泽东说过: 「饿死这么多人,历史上要写上你我的,人相食,要上书的。」三年大饑荒到底饿死了多少人?这是一直引起激烈争论的问题。国家统计局统计的是1000 多万人;有些专家统计的资料是1850 万;现在网上有人有说4000 多万的,还有说7000 多万……《党史》二卷采取的是国家统计局的数据。张啓华说,三年自然灾害死亡人口主要集中在农村,比如说河南信阳,确实死人很多。这跟地方领导为了政绩虚报产量有关,所以说「三分天灾七分人祸」。

原新华社高级记者、《炎黄春秋》杂志社副社长杨继绳曾在香港出版《墓碑——中国六十年代大饑荒纪实》(天地图书),以长达80 万字详细披露了从1958 年至1962 年期间中国大饑荒纪实。杨继绳在比较、分析了各种方法和资料之后的结论是:在大饑荒期间,全国非正常死亡人数大约三千六百万,因饥饿使得出生率降低,少出生人数估计为四千万上下,大饑荒使中国人口损失大约七千六百万。中国社科院哲学所研究员徐友渔认为,杨提供了比较科学、可信的数字。

明日预告

翻译的情意————我英译华叔安息礼拜文.冯炜文

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24. 创科拓配件增利润 新产品销售额达标
明报 2011-01-27 经济, B03

【明报专讯】一众老牌工业股去年表现优秀,拥有多个品牌、产品类别有电钻至吸尘机的创科实业(0669)也不例外,股价在去年反弹近一倍。创科执行董事兼财务总监陈志聪估计,主要销售市场美国经济今年将会有缓慢反弹,创科会集中拓展新产品及辅件销售,争取更高的增长空间。

陈志聪在东莞厂房展示多件新产品,包括最新推出的保暖外套。他指出,创科将会沿用以新产品提升毛利率,去年新产品销售额亦达到占总收入三分之一的目标。陈续说, 「一些产品accessories(配件),如电钻的零部件、吸尘机替换的装置,比产品本身更高盈利,其毛利率大约高10 至20 个百分点。」他指出,现时配件占集团总收入少于一成,冀在2 至3 年内,将比例提升到12%至15%,增加集团整体的毛利率。

上半年创科的订单增约一成,高于行业的自然增长。陈志聪指出,2010 年下半年的订单亦乐观。他表示,估计美国经济今年持续有缓慢反弹,未来3 个月的订单情况感满意。创科自2007 年收购多个品牌后,展开大规模业务重组,将位于北美及欧州的生产线迁至东莞。陈表示,剩余的部分重组费用,将会反映2010 年下半年业绩上。虽然订单增加,但他称公司未有兴建新厂房的计划,会将部分低技术生产程序外判。

盼发展东欧中南美市场

正当各厂商均拓内需对冲人民币升值,陈志聪却指创科不会大力开发内地市场, 「内地消费市场始终不愿意用高价钱购买旗下产品。」他表示,产品在东欧及中南美州的潜力更大,希望在中南美州的销售额能在2 年内倍增。陈志聪并指出,现时内地的劳工成本占生产成本约5%,料人民币升值对集团影响有限。

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25. 拓内销市场 专家齐献计
明报 2011-01-27 行销攻略, B12

内销市场之大惹人垂涎,但实际开拓工作却绝不容易。本周二,《明报》理财会主办的「中小企如何进入内销市场」讲座,就请来了保洁丽和生产力促进局的代表畅谈实战经验。另一方面,在贸发局同日主办的研讨会中,亦有专家建议,借助动漫人物授权,不失为一个较易打开市场的方法。撰文:薛伟杰

聘代言人不必找天王天后

在《明报》理财会主办的讲座中,保洁丽化工产品国际有限公司董事长兼总经理陆咏仪透露,她早于1983 年已在内地设厂,已有20多年的内销经验。为了节省推广费用,该公司采用的是软性品牌塑造方法,积极参与公益活动。例如,各种敬老活动、清洁活动,或者被邀请到商业研讨会发表演说,她们都几乎逢请必到,同时还会赞助家居清洁用品(如沐浴露、洗手液、洗衣粉等)。

积极参与公益逢请必到

例如,早前她就出席东莞一个敬老活动,顺道赠送产品给参与活动的500 名长者。这么一来,便多了500 人认识该公司的品牌以及试用其产品。稍后,该公司还会参与兰州一项活动,向学校赠送产品。

不过,她亦承认,以日用品来说,若要完全不卖广告,但又想做到家喻户晓,是很困难。所以该公司亦会有适量的广告。但在选择代言人时,就不会盲目追求天王天后或偶像派。「若请香港小姐来卖清洁用品的广告, 形象也未必适合。」

反而,她们却在长寿电视剧《皆大欢喜》热播时,请来该剧其中一个主角苑琼丹,以一身马姐造型,担任其家居清洁用品品牌「保洁丽」的代言人。至于另一个护肤和化妆品品牌「保诗」的代言人,则请来同剧的陈彦行担任。陆咏仪表示,名牌清洁用品都用上销售额的6%来卖广告,而化妆品更可用上15%。但该公司仅用上销售额的1%至2%,仍能做到一些知名度。

多种模式进驻超市

很多企业在开拓内销时,都对应否进驻大型超市感到两难。陆咏仪表示,进驻大型超市的好处是曝光率高,而且可借助其品牌,增加顾客对自己品牌的信心。但缺点则是入场费高、收费繁多,如上架费、节庆费等,数期又长,还要聘请推广员等。

因此,她建议,若实力有限,就不要同时进驻多家超市集团,先做好一两家已足够(其他的可能会被吸引而邀请合作)。此外,海南岛和一些北方地区的超市会有另一种合作方式,供应商每月只需向超市支付一个固定的租金(例如每个货架2000 元,需出价投标),以及销售额的20%至30%,余下的都属自己。这亦是可以考虑的方法。

另一方面,要攻入大型超市,其实亦不一定要用自己的品牌,还可用ODM(设计代工生产)或OEM(代工生产)的方式,因为现时很多超市都会推出一些贴牌产品。以该公司为例,就有一半业务来自ODM 或OEM,包括替华润万家、人人乐、麦德龙(Metro)、吉之岛等多家大型超市生产清洁用品。虽然表面看来是大型超市自己的品牌,但实际上,也是另一种形式的打入大型超市。

陆咏仪表示,供货给内地的大型超市,是很难完全不给数期。但若然自己有品牌,数期或可短一点。至于供货给各地的代理商,若然自己有品牌,则有可能做到完全不设数期。

借动漫热潮开拓儿童市场

在同日由贸发局主办、特别针对儿童消费市场的内销研讨会上,与会者均认为,借助卡通人物授权来增加产品的吸引力,是一个比较容易和成功机会较高的方法。

贸发局副首席经济师邱丽萍表示,小朋友希望得到群体认同,他们要求购买玩具、服饰等用品,主要会受潮流影响。而潮流的兴起,又往往来自电视节目或漫画塑造的角色。因此,儿童消费市场与动漫影视结合的商业价值愈来愈高。

小海白创作室有限公司行政董事李允豪表示: 「在日本这种中产阶层为主的成熟市场,可能普通一个呼拉圈也会加上『多啦A梦』!」

内地保护政策利港原创动漫

多莱宝授权(国际)有限公司总裁李伟生则指出,现时中国每100 款产品中,大约只有1 款产品取得正式的卡通人物授权,与美国、日本等相距甚远。因此,随着中国的中产阶层日渐壮大(现占总人口的22%,并每年增长1%),预料卡通人物授权产品的市场将有可观的增长。

李伟生指出, 「喜羊羊」这么成功,部分是受惠于中国的「动画黄金时间政策」(在下午5 时至8 时,不得播放境外动画片或境外动画资讯节目)。在这政策之下,其他由香港人原创的卡通人物亦可以受惠。

现时, 「爽滑仔」(概念来自肠粉,香港首个以街头小食文化创作的卡通品牌)的原创者、该公司和中央电视台就正在合作制作一套3D 动画电影,最快在暑假或圣诞推出,明年还会再推出电视动画。若票房成功的话,将大大有助授权产品的销量。

「爽滑仔」3D 电影或今年上映

李伟生特别指出,借助卡通人物授权,并不限于印刷品、文具、日用品或电子产品等。现时已经有饮食业者取得「爽滑仔」的授权,准备由今年底开始,在内地开设港式肠粉连锁小食店!除了肠粉之外,该小食店还计划供应烧卖、粉果、鱼蛋、鸡蛋仔等一众港式街头小食。

小海白创作室有限公司则计划,稍后将「小海白」(香港原创的中华白海豚卡通人物)的动画译成英文版,并制成iPhone 和iPad 的App 销售。

生产力局:厂销团队宜分家出席《明报》理财会主办「中小企如何进入内销市场」讲座的生产力促进局企业管理部首席顾问梁建诚则指出,传统的厂商在开拓内销市场时, 常会感到困难。这是因为,经营生产与营销是两种不同的思维,前者是靠悭来赚钱,后者却是要以钱搵钱。

他建议,两种业务的管理层要有所区分。例如父母可以继续管厂,子女则负责内销和品牌,说不定后者会有些新思维。又或者, 可以向外招聘一些营销人才。由于要开拓的是内地市场,一定要有一些熟悉本土市场的人才,建议应以内地人和香港人合组成内销团队。

梁建诚强调, 港商开拓内销时,应该走中高档路线,因为若斗平, 一定斗不过内地某些民企。他建议,可以在产品中加入某些科技元素,或者卡通人物授权,来增加吸引力,做到与别不同。例如, 小家电生产商惠家(WELHOME)就取得Hello Kitty的授权(本版去年1 月14 日曾报道)。

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26. 橡木桶的幽香
明报 2011-01-27 Style Server, D07

十年前,我第一次远赴葡萄酒产区, 到法国的布根地(Burgundy),走到酒庄设于地下的酒窖,那阵阵平时只于高脚杯嗅到的木香,实在地传送到鼻子去,心头一阵悸动。

文、图:蔡榛原

随着时日流转,我走访过无数酒庄,法国、西班牙、葡萄牙、加州、新西兰……每到一个酒窖,我的嗅觉神经都自动地发掘那些木香。橡木桶的香气形态很多,云呢拿、椰子糖、雪茄盒、铅笔碎、咖啡豆、焦糖、烟熏和煤炭,以上种种形容葡萄酒的香气词彙,统统是来自橡木桶的蕴藏程序。

让葡萄酒「呼吸」

早在2400 多年前,《历史》一书的作者,古希腊作家希罗多德(Herodotus),便以文字记述了美索不达米亚(Mesopotamia)平原的苏美尔人,如何利用棕榈木制成的木桶,将葡萄酒流经幼发拉底河(Euphrates)运送到各地。

橡木桶最初的作用,是作为葡萄酒的器皿,盛载酒液的工具。古时的酿酒人,将葡萄酒由发酵到储存到运送,一律在橡木桶中进行,不过今天一切都改革了,也为减省成本,发酵多数由巨型的不锈钢桶代劳,而运输时则已装到玻璃瓶中。但不知何时开始,酿酒人发现了木材上的纤维,具微弱的透气作用,令葡萄酒缓慢氧化,令葡萄酒加速成熟。

不同品种有不同香气

除了「呼吸」之外,橡木桶的效用,是为葡萄酒带来一些额外的香气。橡木也有地域品种之分,法国出产的橡木桶,通常香气较柔和,带着幽幽的云呢拿香;至于美国的橡木桶,则强烈浓郁得多,又有时会如某老牌椰子糖般甜美。当然两地做木桶的方式有些分别,也反映到葡萄酒的身上。

至于雪茄盒和铅笔碎,都是木材制成的,因此与橡木桶联系上,不难理解,但咖啡豆、焦糖、烟熏和煤炭呢?我参观过法国Medoc 的木桶厂,橡木桶采用的木材,都用机器劈成,要将平直的木块屈成弯曲的橡木桶,必须把橡木烧烤,木材受热后,才可屈曲起来,因此橡木都带着不同程度的烤烘味道。酒庄在采购木桶时, 还可选择焦的程度, 要Light Toast、Medium Toast 还是Heavy Toast,酿酒师按葡萄酒的风格来创作。

当然,最幽香的木桶味,还是从酒窖传来的。

4a 法国酒庄

即使到访过世上无数的酒庄,我还是喜欢在橡木桶前留影,何况这是法国Pauillac 的五大酒庄之一,Chateau Mouton-Rothschild。

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27. 恒指上24000即入市
明报 2011-01-27 创富理财, B07

期指好淡友争持不下,暂以24000 点作为决胜负的战线,倘向上突破24000 点并企稳,本栏便重新买入强势股。和黄(0013)回复强势,确认30 分钟图表「头肩顶」利淡形态失败,倘期指破24000 点,便可追入和黄,中线看110 元。

港股表现继续反覆,恒指昨日升55 点,报23843点;国指涨87 点,报12649 点。大市成交682 亿元。昨日本栏提到上周五期指成交大增,笔者粗略估计24000 点是当日淡友出击的平均价,即月期指昨日升至24000 点便出现阻力,笔者先将24000 点设定为期指好淡友决胜负的战线。

由于美股道指9 天RSI 达到83.2,现水平似乎要透过向下整固或横行来改变超买,内地A 股未确认扭转跌势,从目前这一刻去看,笔者仍企于淡友的一方。

不过,笔者的短线偏淡立场随时于今日改变。倘期指明显向上突破并企稳24000 点,笔者便会暂时收回看淡的立场。目前本栏保持轻身,实行「食住花生等睇戏」,待期指突破24000 点后,本栏便会重新买入优质股份持有。

和黄利淡形态失败 中线上110元

蓝筹股当中,强势已重回和黄身上,早前其股价跌穿30 分钟「头肩顶」颈线92.1 元后,走势不跌反升,昨日升至95.8 元,以接近全日高位收市,至少目前已确认「头肩顶」形态失败,除非大市急转直下,否则已没有低捞的机会了。相比散户近年最爱持有的内地金融股及汇控(0005),和黄始终是较佳选择,中线可作为稳胆,预料股价能突破2007 年高位,中线首目标价定于110 元。

I.T难估底 未是买入时

近期资金较喜欢追捧中线落后股份,笔者昨日于《明报财经网》即市分析当中推介的真明丽(1868),昨日升3.2%至4.14 元,跑赢昨日偏软的同业股份雷士照明(2222)及达进精电(0515),可见一斑。

近期零售股急挫,早前本栏舍弃的I.T(0999),沽出后随即显著下挫,昨日跌2.3%至5.2 元,虽然估值回落至合理水平,预测今年度市盈率降至大概14、15 倍左右,但股价去年中由2 元以下开始炒起,累积升幅仍惊人,大户帐面利润仍多,不介意抛售股份获利,因此,股价底部更加难测。笔者预计,即使I.T 短期内见底,略为反弹后亦会于低位进行收集,因此,待股价跌势喘定,进入横行阶段时才买入亦未迟。

撰文:杨智佳

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28. 奥巴马宏愿:百万电动车高铁通全国
明报 2011-01-27 国际, A22

创新

●对科研领域作自1960 年代美苏太空竞赛以来最大规模投资,保持美国领先地位

●到2035 年令美国80%电力来自洁净能源,包括风能、太阳能、核能和天然气;到2015 年令美国成为全球首有100 万辆电动车行走的国家

●每年投资80 亿美元作清洁能源技术研发(较现时增加三分之一),取消石油公司40 亿美元减税计划以弥补新支出

教育

●由家庭开始灌输「爱学习理念」,重振学童勤奋与自律精神

●推行「力争上游」拨款计划,奖励改进教学质量的学校

●争取令美国重新成为全球大学毕业生比例最高的国家(现时美拥大学文凭比例全球第9);呼吁国会支持把1 万美元大学学费税务优惠变为永久措施

基建

●未来10 年增聘10 万个科学、科技、工程与数学老师

● 25 年内建设可搭载八成美国人出行的高铁网络

●未来5 年让高速无线网络覆盖98%美国人,让消防员可用手提设备下载起火建筑图则、学生带电子书上课、病人与医生进行面对面视像通话

政府改革

●打造更精简、敏锐的21 世纪政府,承诺将向国会提交重组联邦政府的计划,但未提具体时间表

●冻结未来5 年国内开支,以在未来10 年减赤逾4000亿美元法新社/纽约时报

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29. MegaBox 引入反斗城 打造逾万呎儿童王国
明报 2011-01-27 地产, B04

【明报专讯】嘉里建设(0683)旗下九龙湾MegaBox 宣布,玩具反斗城将进驻MegaBox, 并于今年年中开业,新店楼面逾一万方呎,设立7 大主题区并提供逾5000 款精选玩具。

MegaBox 总经理文静芝表示,引入玩具反斗城后,将成为儿童元素最齐全之商场,预计今年整体人流量可按年升约30%。

料今年人流按年增三成

文静芝指出,去年MegaBox 进行大规模优化租户组合,今年会重组租户位置, 以令商场发展更趋完善。

MegaBox 目前出租率约98%,余下楼面冀引入时装或化妆品商户,每方呎租金介100 至130 元。

「随着整体经济做好,企业纷纷加薪,加上大量内地旅客刺激本港消费市道,今年本港零售业必定更趋畅旺。」她预料MegaBox 今年续租租金有双位数字升幅。

计及写字楼部分,MegaBox 每年租金收益逾3 亿元,当中零售楼面占较大部分。文静芝称,现时写字楼一期有约2 万方呎楼面出租,意向呎租介乎31 至33 元水平。

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30. 新水族馆全球第9大
明报 2011-01-27 港闻, A10

海洋公园新的梦幻水都增设的新水族馆──海洋奇观,是全球第9 大水族馆,水容量逾52 万公升, 水深达11 米,共育有400 品种、约5000 条鱼,较以往海洋馆有200 多品种及2000 多条鱼各增加一倍,每小时可承担人流达3600 人,较旧馆的800 人多3 倍。

全球最大水族馆圆顶

最大看点是在泡泡隧道内,游人都会忍不住抬起头,透过全球最大的水族馆圆顶欣赏到鱼儿肥肥的肚皮,在自己头顶那块直径达5.5 米的玻璃游过。另一个拍友最爱的肯定是一块阔13 米、高8 米的巨型观赏屏,水族馆馆长黎耀南表示,透过这块大亚加力胶片,可看到3 种首次在香港展出的鱼类,包括蓝鳍吞拿、槌头鲨和角鹏。

黎耀南形容槌头鲨和角鹏是水族馆最想饲养的鱼类,角鹏是一种大型鯆鱼,仅在全球不多于5 个水族馆展出,公园这条由日本冲绳引进,目前仍属幼鱼,长大后身长6 米。

不过新馆只有两个位置可以集中欣赏海底情况,黎耀南解释已尽量保留旧馆可一眼看到水深等的特色,沿途只设小窗予游客窥探,是既希望保持神秘感,亦希望让游客以新角度观看海底。

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31. Hastings
明报 2011-01-27 英文, A35

One of my best friends moved to the seaside recently to finish a book she's been writing. Hastings, the town that she moved to, is on the coast near Brighton and has all the charm of its bigger neighbour but fewer crowds. I love visiting her there because it's quiet and arty, and has a fantastic cafe culture amongst the classic British seaside staples of fish-and-chip shops and piers. It's also the site of a famous 11th century battle, which is fun for history buffs (迷、爱好者).

Hastings has a wealth of second-hand furniture and clothing stores, and is one of the best places I've found in the world for curios (珍品、美术古董). On my recent visit, my friend and I came across old ship's masts, vintage signs, as well as beautiful 1950's ball gowns and accessories, while our boyfriends kept themselves occupied in the record shops hidden amongst alleyways (小巷) and furniture reclamation (回收) yards. It's a great little place to spend a classic English day out, which is why I'm telling you about it. Should you ever get the opportunity, I can also recommend a holiday cottage called Swan House, where I spent a week writing for my album. Idyllic.

Writer's profile

Emma-Lee Moss is better known by her stage name of Emmy the Great. A British singer-songwriter, she was brought up in Hong Kong and emigrated to the UK at the age of 12. Now a resident of London, she spends her days writing music in an abandoned cottage in Maida Vale.

(photos courtesy of Emma)

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32. 革命火烧埃及 总统妻儿逃英 30 年最大反政府示威4 死
明报 2011-01-27 国际, A21

突尼斯「茉莉革命」蔓延至北非政治大国埃及,首都开罗与扼守欧亚非交通要冲的苏彝士等地,爆发逾30 年最大规模反政府抗议活动,示威者与警察冲突,造成至少4 人死亡,当局昨公布拘捕500人。一个在美国的阿拉伯语网站称,总统穆巴拉克的妻儿已携97 个行李箧逃往伦敦。

Akhbar Arab 网站声称, 穆巴拉克(Mohammed HosniMubarak)的儿子贾迈勒(Gamal)已逃往伦敦。现年82 岁的穆巴拉克自1981 年起掌权,近年传闻患癌,他被指一力栽培贾迈勒接掌国家。在twitter 流传的信息称,目击贾迈勒与穆巴拉克的妻子苏珊(Suzanne)及孙女,乘私人飞机飞抵伦敦希斯鲁机场。

受突尼斯推翻执政23 年的本阿里(Zine El Abidine BenAli)的人民力量所鼓舞,开罗、亚历山大港、苏彝士等地周二爆发成千上万人的大型示威。这既为穆巴拉克任内最严峻政治危机,亦是埃及自1977 年因抗议停止面包津贴发生骚乱以来,最重大示威。参与者包括不同年龄、宗教人士,也不限基层劳工,还有商人,他们抗议贫穷、失业、贪污和萧条等, 要求穆巴拉克、总理纳齐夫(AhmedNazif)落台,解散国会,重组联合政府。

500 人被捕当局警告镇压

周三凌晨时分,警方施放催泪弹、水炮等驱赶,触发警民流血冲突。3 名示威者遇害,当中最少2 人被为橡胶子弹击中丧命,一名警员亦因头部遭示威者石块打中毙命。当局昨颁发示威禁令,内政部长扬言,民众倘再上街示威,会遭检控、镇压。路透社称,凌晨目睹有至少10 辆防暴军车,由开罗一个军营开出,当局昨公布拘捕500 人。

反政府组织呼吁继续进行街头抗争,示威搞手「4 月6 日青年」透过facebook 呼吁民众继续到开罗市中心解放广场(Tahrir Square)集会,直至穆巴拉克下台。号召者道:「明天切勿上班、上学。我们全都走上街头,为你我的埃及,手挽手站着,我们将有数以百万人。」法新社称,开罗市中心与苏彝士昨仍有警民冲突。

股市急跌6% 美欧促尊重民意

受政局动盪影响,埃及股市昨急挫6.1%,为自2009 年11 月30 日以来最大单日跌幅。身为埃及盟友的美国,昨敦促埃及政府「回应」人民意愿,推行改革,白宫称美国支持埃及民主自由。欧盟亦称抗议行动显示埃及人在突尼斯示威者刺激下,寻求政治改变的意愿。

观察家称,这场示威显示广大民众对政府的不满。埃及有8000 万人口,四成人每日仅靠不足两美元(15.6 港元)维生,三分一属文盲,而且占人口六成的未满30 岁青年中,有九成失业。居于开罗北部贫民区的25 岁拉法特拥有石油地质学硕士学位,却失业多时。他说: 「这个国家有太多问题,而总统在位30 年了,为什么?」一名屠夫说:「改变必须出现。一定要。老的离开,年轻人带着新思维出来。」以色列国家新闻/法新社/路透社/纽约时报

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33. 7港银准进内地银行间债市
明报 2011-01-27 经济, B02

【明报专讯】内地银行间债券市场再次向本港银行开启闸门,继本港4 家银行及金管局获人民银行批准投资内地银行间债市后,据本报获悉,人民银行已于本周初,再批准7 家本港银行进入内地银行间债市的申请,当中包括恒生(0011)及东亚(0023)等。

包括恒生东亚等

消息人士向本报透露,是次获人行批准投资境内银行间债市的第二批共7家本港银行中,并不包括月前首轮获批的本地银行,即汇丰、渣打香港及中银香港(2388)及工银亚洲并不在本轮名单之中。而据了解,恒生及东亚榜上有名。早前,恒生、东亚、星展香港及信银国际等,均公开表示已递交投资内地银行间债市的申请。本报昨日透过图文传真向人行作出查询,惟至截稿前人行仍未回覆。本港银行推出的人民币产品,息率上调空间一直受限,主要碍于银行取得人民币资金后苦无投资出路,难以进一步提升资金回报。及至去年8 月,人行公布允许境外央行、港澳人民币清算行,以及跨境人民币贸易结算境外参加行投资内地银行间债市,银行的人民币投资渠道得以拓宽,亦进一步完善人民币回流机制。

其后工银亚洲、汇丰、渣打香港及中银香港相继获人行「开绿灯」,可参与投资内地银行间债市,4 家银行的相关额度共涉及292 亿元人民币。金管局亦于去年12 月底,宣布获人行批准投资内地银行间债券市场。

尽管再有银行准入内银债市,但有银行界人士指出,人行是次批予银行的投资额度,仅足以让银行改善早前以高息吸纳人民币资金的回报,惟对银行加快推人民币产品或提升产品息率则未必起到立竿见影之效。

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34. 达沃斯年会倡建风险分享网络 48% CEO看好今年经济
明报 2011-01-27 国际金融, A23

第41 届世界经济论坛年会昨在瑞士达沃斯开幕,本届年会聚焦四大议题,包括因应新形势而探寻新国际规范,釐订包容性经济增长政策、为20 国集团(G20)行动计划提供支援,以及建立全球风险应对机制。随着复苏逐步上轨道,会前公布的全球调查显示,大型企业总裁对全球经济的信心重回金融海啸前水平,并把中国视为未来全球经济增长的关键所在。

普华永道访问了1201 名世界大型企业的总裁(CEO),48%受访者表示,对未来12 个月的经济增长「非常有信心」,远高于去年的31%。普华永道主席Dennis M. Nally 说,CEO 们已走出「捱过经济衰退的碉堡思维模式」,看到全球经济形势好转和消费者需求增长带来新发展机遇。

39%视中国最重要经济体

调查显示,化工、汽车与制造业总裁均表示计划增加职位,娱乐与传媒业亦对招聘前景乐观,中东、亚太区与非洲的CEO 对就业前景尤其看好。中国被视为未来经济增长的关键因素,39%受访CEO 把中国视为对未来经济增长最重要的经济体,21%认为美国最重要,另有19%和18%受访者分别视巴西和印度为最重要经济体。

在世界经济论坛上,复苏亦成为首日谈论焦点。「末日博士」鲁比尼(Nouriel Roubini)在一场谈论会上警告,欧元区迟迟不退的债务危机是对全球经济的主要威胁,但新兴市场持续带领增长,令整体风险获得平衡。

鲁比尼认同市场对欧债问题的忧虑近日缓和,但强调欧盟仍未能对症下药,根治引发债务危机的核心问题。欧洲金融稳定机构周二发债50 亿欧元为救助爱尔兰融资,受惠于亚洲强劲需求,超额认购近9 倍,其中日本政府兑现承诺,购买了此次发行债券的20%。

鲁比尼:欧债成最大威胁

鲁比尼指出,全球经济风险可用水杯「半满」与「半空」两个角度理解,欧元区问题与美国高失业率及地方财政赤字都属「半空」风险,食物与商品通胀对新兴国家的潜在冲击亦令人忧虑。但新兴市场增长速度加快,双底衰退风险消退,则是「半满」利好因素。

国际货币基金组织特别顾问、中国人民银行前副行长朱民在同一场合表示,美国刺激经济措施集中于推动美国需求,可能令全球重回由美国作为「世界消费者」的老路,削弱中国等由出口主导转为增加内需的经济转型努力。

今界世界经济论坛年会有逾1400 名球知名企业管理层、30 多名政府首脑及近300 名国际组织或非政组织领袖出席。世界经济论坛(WEF)总部设在瑞士日内瓦,是以研究和探讨世界经济问题、促进国际经济合作与交流为宗旨的非官方国际机构。因应金融海啸暴露的问题,WEF 计划今年启用一个全球网络,使各国决策当局与企业主管能就潜在风险分享资讯。

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35. 腾讯前景看俏 Call 25890
明报 2011-01-27 创富理财, B08

港股昨日呈上落市之势,恒指虽曾跌穿20 天线(约23818 点),但下午市况走势有改善,20 天线失而复得。不过大市在24000 点料仍见阻力,未有明显方向。基于临近农历新年,市场观望气氛仍会较为浓厚,港股在区间上落。

在这种上落市中,窝轮引伸波幅有调整风险,因为引伸波幅的下跌,即意味着投资者无论持有哪类窝轮,窝轮的价格都会因为引伸波幅调整影响了回报。若此情况出现,投资者可能要隔夜持货,期望翌日股市能够裂口上升或下跌,方有机会获得较可观的回报。

倘正股有力向上可续持认购证

当然,若整体引伸波幅普遍有上调的现象,这反映市场预期正股股价未来将较为波动,有可能出现较大幅度的上升或下跌。遇上这情况,投资者应重新检讨对正股后市的看法,若预期正股仍有足够的上升动力,持有认购证的投资者可选择继续持有,希望从正股上升及引伸波幅上升两方面争取回报。若引伸波幅上升只是单单出现在自己所持有的窝轮,投资者需留意可能是市场过度需求所致(例如市场持货高),这时候投资者可考虑先沽出窝轮,以赚取来自引伸波幅的利润,或换马至其他引伸波幅较低的认购证。

个别股份方面,则仍可选择近日比较有走势及引伸波幅相对调整较小者, 例如腾讯控股(0700),近日其计划成立互联网产业基金,另有外电报道指公司与日本社交网站组成联盟。

拟在0.15 元购5 万份

近日其股价在190 元附近已筑起支持,两日均呈现阳烛,料有机会再试新高。可以留意腾讯购证(25890),25890 今年5 月底到期,行使价208.88 元,引伸波幅38.149%,实际槓桿6.57倍。组合拟在0.15 元购入5 万份。

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36. 香港政党政治 进入战国时代
明报 2011-01-27 观点, A32

上个礼拜政圈里的最大新闻,当然是黄毓民和陈伟业退党,另组「人民力量」。不少人即时关心的,就是这对香港政党政治生态,究竟会产生何种影响。但其实如果大家把视线放远一点,便可以看到,这种另立山头,另起炉灶,其实也不止于今日,过去半年多,由林大辉牵头的C18,到叶刘淑仪组建新民党,再到从民主党分裂出来的新民主同盟等等,新的政党、政治团体如雨后春笋般诞生,简直让人目不暇给,也标志着香港政党政治,进入一个战国时代。

在比例代表制以及最大余额法之下,任何一个政党要在直选选区中拿到第二个议席,实在是十分艰难,要拿到第三个议席,更是有点痴人说梦。于是这种选举制度,就为大型政党的发展,套上一个让他们窒息的樽颈,反而为小型、中型政党的生存,提供了足够的土壤。

民建联第二梯队将成主要受害者

尤其是来届进一步增加直选议席,只要在选区中拿到5%选票,就有机会博得一席,于是不少政圈中人都跃跃欲试,尝试由自己「担正大旗」,一试身手。或许,各个政党的分裂与重组,都各有前因,也有不少新仇旧恨,但这种结构性因素、制度性因素,却为这种细胞分裂,提供了大气候。

虽然在媒体中,吸引到最多镁光灯,听到最多吵吵闹闹的,一定是社民连以至是民主党的分裂,但其实类似的细胞分裂,也一样在建制派阵营中,低调的进行。

过往直选,在建制派阵营中,一向是由民建联一党独大,但慢慢地,先有工联会部署5 区参选,抢占建制阵营中的基层选票,后再有新民党,抢占政治光谱另一端的中上阶层选票。原本作为旗舰的民建联,处境可说是「前门拒虎,后门进狼」,还未计在旁虎视眈眈、伺机而动的自由党、C18、梁美芬、庞爱兰等等。

当然,民建联的死对头民主党,可能会在一旁苦笑,事关类似的苦果,他们在过去10 年间早已尝透,泛民的政治光谱,由1990 年代中由民主党一党独大,到今天再按阶级和政治路线,被公民党、社民连、职工盟等泛民政党不断加入,瓜分和切割,让民主党日渐被「阴乾」,让民建联坐收渔人之利。到了今天,终于「风水轮流转」,让民建联也得尝上类似的苦果,其党内第二梯队将成为主要的受害者。

就是如此这般,香港的政治光谱,被各大政党愈切愈碎,亦变得愈来愈模糊。

市民多了选择还是愈来愈摸不着头脑?

有人或会认为,这也未尝不是一件好事,起码市民在选举中会多了选择。但问题是,这样的战国时代,究竟市民是真的多了选择,还是愈来愈摸不着头脑,无所适从呢?例如:

◆究竟社民连一分为二之后,分裂出来,新的人民力量,与原有的社民连,政治理念上有何不同,是否只在于狙击民主党与否这一点上?

◆自由党与经济动力,除了人事纠纷之外,究竟对商界利益和社会责任有何不同理解?

◆那么新民党又如何?那好像是一个代表中上阶层、专业人士的中间偏右政党。但林大辉牵头的C18 又如何?部分人可能会认得他是唐英年的「家臣」,但除此之外呢?还有梁美芬的西九新动力、庞爱兰的新论坛等,不是一样的标榜中产、专业吗?

◆新民主同盟从民主党中分裂而出,据说导火线是因为后者支持政改方案,但也有报道引述范国威说,该组织不反对与中央沟通,也不走激进路线,那么究竟分别在哪里呢?

我相信对于以上问题的答案,不单止很多普通市民毫无头绪,连一些政治评论员,也不是三言两语说得清楚。很多人会指出,一个四分五裂议会,对特区政府最为有利,因为没有了一股主要势力,相比起殖民地末代政府(即95 至97 立法会),来自议会的威胁可说是大大减低,能够让「行政主导」,发挥得更为淋漓尽致。

但实情又是否如此呢?

议会变得四分五裂政府最初没有想到

近月, 很多问责局长为了要「箍票」,不单要对各大政党低声下气,更甚至要造访各大政党的党部,出席党团会议,费尽唇舌,他们都戏称自己在「乞票」。试问如果未来议会进一步变得零碎,三数议员便成一组合,那么这些局长,还可以跑到几多个政党党团去游说?政府难以管治,寸步难移的苦况,只会比今天尤甚。

特区政府引入比例代表制的目标,其实十分短浅,那是尽量减少民主派在直选中取得的议席数目,因为比例代表制可以削弱大党在选举中「超额赢得议席」的效应。但结果议会变得四分五裂,政治光谱愈切愈碎的苦果,却是他们最初没有想到的。

相应而来互扯后腿的局面,不单在议会内发生,也存在于行政立法机关之间。其后遗症便是在面对社会、经济危机时,又或是政府需要推动重大改革的关键时刻,行政立法之间的不咬弦,往往使施政陷于胶着状态,造成了当年国务院总理朱镕基批评的「议而不决,决而不行」之现象。

作者是中文大学政治与行政学系高级导师

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37. 亲读分产声明 见四房后授权律师追讨 赌王立场反覆 长房不信未获分产
明报 2011-01-27 赌王分家, A04

赌王家族争产风波上演第3 日,主角何鸿燊终于现身,然而未能平息「干戈」。何鸿燊昨早在二房及三房亲属陪同下,读出声明指原有分产安排已落实,不再需要律师高国峻帮助。然而,何鸿燊在四太梁安琪陪同下返回浅水湾大宅后,律师高国峻和长房亲属何超雄等相继到访,高国峻傍晚更发声明坚持继续代表何鸿燊,长房何超贤指不相信父亲半点财产不留给自己母亲一房,变相质疑日前二、三房独得澳娱股权的分产安排,四太梁安琪6 时许离开大宅,晚上10 时许返回,更向本报记者表示「我同我老公倾紧偈」,反映家庭内的分产谈判仍未结束。【相关新闻刊A5】

长房图与二房商讨未获理睬

长房三女何超贤昨晚透过私人助理发出电邮表示:「我不相信我父亲会不留任何东西给我母亲这一房。她在葡萄牙的关系及在澳门社会的地位,是我父亲赢得赌场专营权的一大因素。」她对何家部分成员的言论及行为极为不安,严重伤害感情,并称曾试图和何超琼和何超凤等商讨,但不获理睬。

在过去短短48 小时,何家争产风波发展堪称「翻转再翻转」,何鸿燊在三房伴随时一副息事宁人、家和万事兴的模样,与四房见面后却又授权律师追讨股权,取态反覆。

邀传媒采访不准发问

三太陈婉珍前日深夜代何鸿燊读出「分产百分百真心」声明,她昨早约11 时,突然邀请大公报、东周刊及无线电视的代表进入其山顶布力径住宅采访,但整个「采访」不设发问环节,只准录影及拍摄。当时二房的何超琼、何超凤及何超蕸均在场。

坐在轮椅上的何鸿燊,由陈婉珍及其女儿何超云及佣人陪同推入客厅,三太及超云一左一右站在何鸿燊两旁,超云还为父亲拿着电视台的咪。瘦削不少的赌王面容憔悴、口齿不清,有人预先准备好写上声明的纸牌,由佣人举起站在摄录机旁。目光呆滞的赌王望着纸牌,缓慢吐出字句,但当中加插一些变化,部分字句为纸牌所无。

律师:对第三方发稿不在意

何鸿燊透过声明表示, 「为了今次风波,很不开心」,他指从未试过采取「你又告我,我又告你」的方式对待家人,因此前两晚作出一个声明,落实股权的分配安排,他不希望落实有变动。他多谢律师高国峻介入,但不再需要他,因为大问题已解决。

同日较早时间,被陈婉珍形容已被辞退的高国峻,在律师楼信心十足表示没有收到被辞退的通知,自己仍然代表何鸿燊,今日将与对方会面。对于陈婉珍周二深夜「代表」赌王读出的声明,高国峻称「对于有明显利益的第三方于深夜发出的新闻稿不会太在意」又形容有关新闻稿「skeptical」(有怀疑)。

赌王返家长房四房陪至夜深

二、三房安排何鸿燊面向镜头表态后,不获澳娱控股权分配的长房及四房,获邀到三太大宅商量。四太梁安琪于下午约2 时到达,接近3 时长房长女何超英之女萧玟铮,陪同长房三女何超贤到达。至3 时10分,一度外出的四太从保良局总部折返大宅,此时大宅内集齐四房的人。

约半小时后,四太及女儿超盈、超欣陪同赌王离开三太住宅,返回赌王的浅水湾道大宅。高国峻在长房长女何超贤丈夫接载下到达何鸿燊大宅,与何鸿燊见面10 多分钟后离开。长房何超雄在大宅逗留至晚上10 时许才离开。

律师自称「仍代表何鸿燊」

高国峻离开大宅后到高等法院,被记者问及是否已遭「炒鱿」,他自称「仍然代表何鸿燊」。高国峻的律师行其后透过公关公司发出新闻稿证实, 「继与何鸿燊博士于傍晚会面后,将继续受其委任,以代表其于澳门博彩控股有限公司、澳门旅游娱乐有限公司及Lanceford Company Limited 公司之权益」。

另外,澳博(0880)昨日复牌后,股价即急插逾8%,最终收报13.12 元,跌4.9%。自本周一公布何鸿燊将澳博股权悉数转让予二房及三房后,澳博过去3天累积跌8.8%,市值蒸发近70 亿港元。

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38. 波司登2.7 元博反弹
明报 2011-01-27 创富理财, B06

恒指四连阴后,昨日低见23662 点,大概是过去1 个月反弹2000 点后的0.382 调整目标,暂时见支持,终于反弹。春节前夕,宏调阴影笼罩, 仍有调整压力, 或要下试0.5 调整目标23413 点,为农历年后红盘高开铺路。

上周建议收集的361 度(1361),至今已反弹近一成,除了是技术上出现RSI 三底背驰之见底信号外,还受同业的营运数据带动。匹克体育(1968)日前公布2011 年第3 季订单金额按年增长24%,去年第4 季同店销售增长13%。正如本栏早前指出,主攻三、四线城市的中低档品牌之增长仍然不俗,但估值较面对剧烈竞争的高档品牌更吸引,市盈率仅约10 倍。内需股经过近月的调整后,不少已见喘定,例如恒安(1044)亦由低位反弹一成。一些前景正面、估值吸引、超卖的内需股有条件反弹。羽绒服龙头波司登(3998)昨日再挫8%,不足两个月,已蒸发三分一市值。

拓男女休閒服业务四季化

羽绒服业务季节性极高,且受天气左右,波司登为减低箇中风险,正拓展男装、女装及休閒服业务,冀将业务四季化。公司前日公布,出资1 亿余元人民币增持上海旭高时装至56.04%股权。旭高从事休閒时尚服装设计,营运「摩高」品牌,目标消费群为20 至30 岁的年轻人。「摩高」于全国有近400 间店舖,未来5年计划每年开150 至200 家新店。波司登在全国设有逾7400 个零售网点,应可善用广阔的销售网络,推广旗下不同类型产品。此次增资,长远有助扩阔盈利来源。

波司登之2011 年度(3 月年结)之预测市盈率仅12 倍,远低于男装同业平均之22 倍。技术上,去年底跌穿双底颈线3.4 元,量度目标2.7元,可于该水平博反弹,短线望后抽上3.4 元,中线望回补下跌裂口3.72 元,失守2.5 元止蚀。笔者为证监会持牌人没持有上述股份

撰文:苏沛丰新鸿基金融集团分析员

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39. 长科有条件成1元股
明报 2011-01-27 创富理财, B06

长、和系股份近期在跌市中表现突出,其中以长江生命科技(0775) 已见蓄势待发之势,集团近年业绩表现正渐入佳境,加上近半年投资动作频仍,单是一只瑞年(2010)已录得逾2 亿元交易盈利,中长线股价重上1 元以上的机会实在不低。长科近年经营已明显摆脱漫长的播种期,截至去年6 月止的上半年,集团录得13.23 亿元营收,同比微增1%,虽则表面盈利倒退81%至4680 万元,但若不计财务工具公允价值变动,溢利实为7700 万元,同比增7%,反映毛利率增长快速。

长科以保健产品及科研业务为主打,保健产品上半年营收达9.27 亿元,其中澳洲业务受惠当地经济环境改善纷见增加存货,同时澳洲Lipa Pharmaceuticals Limited 具开发新产品及配方专长,有助提高产品价格及边际利润,北美业务预期在下半年亦可重获显著增长。另外,期内农产业务增长理想,营收增15%至3.96 亿元。

科研项目方面,以河豚毒素为基础的癌症痛楚纾缓产品,已交由加拿大卫生部规管下之第三阶段临床试验,预计于澳洲及新西兰新试点亦投入运作。河豚毒素可纾缓其他症状,如化疗引起的神经痛。另外,黑色素瘤疫苗临床试验材料亦进度良好,并已交美国食品及药物管理局举行新药临床实验,日内便可进行新药临床。

沽瑞年股份赚逾2 亿

长科更瞩目的动作,是在半年结后出现,首先是在去年9月底成功套现4000 万股瑞年股份,录得除税前收益净额2.03亿元。其后于去年以约2.6 亿元购入澳洲Challenger WineTrust 约72.3% 权益, 以及刚宣布以8890 万元购入铂阳(0566)换股债券,以进军太阳能业务。种种积极动作看来,今年应是长科回归年,细看员工认购权作价也高达每股1.286 至1.422 元不等,可见当下0.59 元股价实在十分吸引,重上成为1 元股的机会甚高。

撰文:覃百强

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40. 思捷调整已多 有条件反弹
明报 2011-01-27 创富理财, B06

出口股表现可谓差天共地, 由去年第4季至今, 利丰(0494) 股价屡创上市后新高,并录得近15% 升幅, 跑赢同期恒指表现。思捷环球(0330)股价则持续弱势,跑输大市之余,更录得超过一成跌幅。当然,这情况又不难理解,欧洲债务危机问题下,业务侧重在欧洲的思捷自然首当其冲。相反,美国经济复苏较快,有利利丰业绩表现。笔者认为思捷回落幅度已大,有条件作出反弹。

欧元反弹增收入现价可吸

回顾思捷2010/11 年度第1 季业绩,收入下跌9%,至85 亿元,欧洲继续为最大收入来源,占营业额81%,但当地营业额减少14%至69 亿元。亚太区的收入上升28%,至13 亿元,占总收入16%。北美洲的收入则增长5%至3 亿元,占总收入3%。零售与批发收入占总收入的比例接近是五五之比,零售分销渠道继续增加,销售点总数达1137 个。店舖销售增幅由2009/10 年下半年的-3.6%,改善至10/11 年第1 季增长0.1%。批发分销业务持续疲弱,反映消费需求保持审慎。管理层表示,订单数量已逐月改善,意味批发收入可望回升。展望未来,公司在新兴市场的销售增加,长远可减低对欧洲市场的倚赖。目前欧洲债务危机有缓和迹象,欧元显著反弹,亦有利公司收入。目前公司预测市盈率约11 倍,预测息率5 厘,应提供足够防守性,可于现价吸纳,上望目标44元,跌穿36 元止蚀。

(笔者为证监会持牌人士,可就证券提供意见,没有持有上述股份)

撰文:郭家耀

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41. 四房会商 长房孙女痛哭离开
明报 2011-01-27 赌王分家, A04

赌王何鸿燊家族的分产风波闹至满城风雨,前晚起逗留在三太陈婉珍大宅的何鸿燊,昨午亲自向部分传媒宣读声明,表示分产问题已解决,其后三太邀请各房代表会面商讨。其中长房孙女萧玟铮离开时抱头痛哭。

何鸿燊中午口述立场

三太陈婉珍位于布力径5 号的大宅,前晚起聚集大批记者,每逢有车出入,数十名记者便蜂拥而上,争相拍下车内情况。

四太神色凝重先后两次到大宅

何鸿燊昨日中午在三太大宅向3 家传媒口述立场后,四太梁安琪先后两次到访。昨午2 时左右,四太乘车到三太大宅,座驾一度被大批传媒包围,并不断向大宅响号,但大闸未有打开。未几四太女儿超盈乘的士到达并登上座驾,记者问她是否有家庭会议时,她摇头否认。四太一直坐在车内不发一言,神色凝重。大闸约5 分钟后打开,四太座驾驶入大宅,四太于大宅逗留约20 分钟后离开,前往礼顿道的保良局总部。

至3 时左右,长房女儿何超英之女萧玟铮陪同长房女儿何超贤到达,座驾同样遭大批传媒包围,停在闸外未能驶入。其间何超贤的丈夫等得不耐烦,拿起相机反拍记者。萧玟铮则向记者表示,昨日未有与任何人商讨,此行是受三太邀请前来。

四太女儿陪何鸿燊离开

未几四太从保良局总部折返三太大宅,与何超贤等人逗留约半小时后离开。其中萧玟铮离开时一度于停车场低头饮泣,何超贤上前搂抱她安慰。四太与女儿超盈陪同何鸿燊离开大宅,数十名记者争先恐后拍摄,部分更爬上车头,以镜头对准车头玻璃不断按下快门,车内的何鸿燊不禁咧嘴而笑。数分钟后,何鸿燊座驾驶回浅水湾道1 号何鸿燊的大宅。明报记者

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中国日报香港版 A
 1. HKMA to diversify Exchange Fund
中国日报香港版 2011-01-27 HK Business, H02

Income drops to HK$79b in 2010 compared with HK$107.7b in 2009

By Oswald Chenchina daily

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) said Wednesday that it plans to diversify the investment portfolio of the Exchange Fund as it seeks to boost its returns.

The fund managing Hong Kong’s foreign exchange reserves will diversify into the stocks and bonds of emerging markets, private equity funds and overseas property. The announcement comes as the fund’s investment income in 2010 slumped 26.65 percent to HK$79 billion compared with HK$107.7 billion in 2009 – its lowest level in three years.

Meanwhile, although the HKMA said the fund’s performance achieved a “better than expected” return in 2010, its rate of return was lower. It rose just 3.6 percent in 2010 after gaining 5.9 percent the year before.

“The investment market in 2011 will still be volatile and uncertain, so the HKMA will remain cautious and prudent,” said HKMA Chief Executive Norman Chan. He added that diversification would be a gradual and orderly process.

Spending on assets including emerging-market securities, private equity funds and overseas real-estate has already started, Chan said.

“Yuan investment on the mainland will be another diversification strategy for the HKMA to pursue and the HKMA has been approved by the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) to invest 15 billion yuan in the mainland inter-bank bond market,” Chan said, adding that its investment was on a long-term basis.

The PBoC gave its approval to the HKMA to invest in the mainland inter-bank bond market in December 2010. Separately, the China Securities Regulatory Commission also gave a green light for the HKMA to invest in the mainland’s stock and bond markets through the QFII program in October.

The HKMA is still waiting for the State Administration of Foreign Exchange to set the quota for the QFII program, Chan said.

“Today’s comments may be intended to show that the HKMA supports the internationalization of the yuan,” Kevin Lai, an economist at Daiwa Capital Markets in Hong Kong, said Wednesday. “The (Exchange Fund’s) over-reliance on the US dollar is an inevitable reality.”

Foreign equities accounted for HK$27 billion of the latest return total, compared with HK$11.6 billion for Hong Kong equities. The return from bonds was HK$42.1 billion.

Currency movements led to a valuation loss of HK$3.1 billion.

The payment to the government’s fiscal reserves amounted to HK$33.8 billion and the fund’s accumulated surplus was increased by HK$37.9 billion to a total of HK$591.4 billion.

The fund’s total assets have swelled to HK$2.35 trillion in 2010 from HK$2.14 trillion in 2009, registering a hike of 9.81 percent.

“The notably high unemployment rate, very soft housing market, the households’ de-leveraging process and the US federal and municipal governments’ debt problems may affect the sustainability of US economic recovery; while Europe will continue to be affected by sovereign debt problem and fiscal sustainability,” Chan cautioned.

“Moreover, further macroeconomic tightening policies will be envisaged in the emerging markets because of the capital inflows, rising inflation and asset price surges in these regions,” Chan added.

Eddie Yue, HKMA deputy chief executive, added that the HKMA will inject more capital into its subsidiary company – the Eight Finance Investment Company (EFIC) – to pursue more alternative investments in 2011. The EFIC was formed in 2009 as the HKMA’s investment arm in alternative investments.

Hong Kong’s foreign-exchange reserves were $268.7 billion at the end of 2010, ranked after the mainland, Japan, Russia, Taiwan, India, South Korea and Brazil, making the city the owner of the world’s eighth-largest foreign-exchange reserves.

Bloomberg contributed to this story.

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 2. China Mobile may buy Belgium license
中国日报香港版 2011-01-27 HK Business, H02

China Mobile Ltd, the world’s biggest phone carrier by market value, is considering buying a 4G fast-data wireless license in Belgium, Chairman Wang Jianzhou said Wednesday.

“Belgium asked whether we would be interested in buying their 4G license,” Wang said in an interview at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. “That’s a big difference in Davos this year – many governments and companies talk to us about possible investments instead of asking why on earth we managed to get 600 million customers.”

China Mobile will seek to expand globally in the next 10 years in order to compete with companies such as Deutsche Telekom AG and TeliaSonera AB, according to Wang.

“We will aim to expand in emerging markets first, but any projects that would help our development of TD-LTE technology will definitely be considered,” Wang said. At the moment, China Mobile is far away from being a leading world player due to its lack of innovation and internationalization, he said.

Bloomberg – Reuters

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 3. PICC branches violated law
中国日报香港版 2011-01-27 Business, P13

PICC Property and Casualty Co says an audit by the Chinese government for 2009 revealed some branches violated laws and regulations “in the forms of false expenses, false premium increase and false claim settlement cases”, according to a statement from the insurer to the Hong Kong stock exchange Wednesday.

The problems identified by China’s National Audit Office have “no significant impact” on the company’s financial statements or operating results, the statement said.

Bloomberg nEWS

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 4. China Mobile, Facebook talk
中国日报香港版 2011-01-27 Business, P13

China Mobile Ltd Chairman Wang Jianzhou said he met with Facebook Inc founder Mark Zuckerberg to discuss “the possibility of cooperation” in China.

Wang made the comment on Wednesday in an interview after speaking on a panel at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. No agreement was reached with Palo Alto, California-based Facebook at the time.

Facebook’s service has been inaccessible in China since 2009.

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 5. Glencore hopes to raise $2.5b in Hong Kong listing
中国日报香港版 2011-01-27 Business Companies, P16

By FOX HU AND XIAO YUBLOOMBERG NEWS BEIJING — Glencore International AG, the world’s largest commodities trader, plans to raise about $2 billion to $2.5 billion in Hong Kong as part of a $10 billion initial public offering in the Chinese city and London, according to two people familiar with the matter.

Glencore plans to sell shares in the cities in the second or third quarter this year, said the people, who declined to be identified. Citigroup, Credit Suisse Group and Morgan Stanley are among the banks handling the IPO, sources said.

A share sale would mean the Baar, Switzerland-based company joins Vale SA, the world’s largest iron ore exporter, and United Co Rusal, the biggest aluminum producer, in seeking access to Hong Kong investors after a record HK$384.4 billion ($49 billion) was raised in IPOs excluding overallotments there last year.

“Hong Kong is China’s largest financing platform, and the exchange offers relatively higher market valuations for commodity stocks,” said Danny Yan, a Hong Kong-based fund manager at Haitong International Asset Management, which oversees $400 million.

Glencore owns 34 percent of Swiss miner Xstrata Plc, which trades in London, and controls mines and metals plants on five continents. It buys and sells oil, coal, metals and grains.

A call to Glencore’s Baar office out of regular business hours wasn’t answered. Four calls to its Hong Kong office weren’t answered. James Griffiths, a Hong Kong-based spokesman for Citigroup, declined to comment. Noel Cheung, a Morgan Stanley spokeswoman in Hong Kong, and Adam Harper, a Credit Suisse spokesman, weren’t immediately available to comment.

An offering by the firm, which was renamed Glencore after management bought US financier Marc Rich’s interest in Marc Rich & Co in 1994, would end more than three decades of the company operating as a closely held partnership.

London-based brokerage Liberum Capital Ltd valued Glencore pre-IPO at $47 billion to $51 billion in a July report. An IPO would allow the company’s partners to cash out part of their holdings.

The Swiss trader in November posted its best quarterly profit since the start of the global recession in 2008, boosting earnings by 43 percent after metal prices rose. Net income excluding one-time items rose to $979 million in the three months ended Sept 30.

Profit for the first nine months of the year increased 42 percent to $2.5 billion.

Glencore sold convertible bonds in December 2009 for the first time, raising $2.2 billion. The terms valued the company at $35 billion at the time, the company said. The debt can be exchanged for shares should Glencore hold an initial share sale.

The bonds, which are due December 2014, were sold to investors including BlackRock Inc, the Government of Singapore Investment Corp, Greeenwich, Connecticut-based private equity investor First Reserve Corp, and Zijin Mining Group Co.

Zijin, China’s biggest gold producer, bought $200 million of the convertible bonds, to “form a long-term strategic partnership with Glencore,” it said in December 2009. A call to Zijin Vice Chairman Lan Fusheng’s cell phone wasn’t answered.

Glencore employs 2,000 people in its trading operations and more than 50,000 people at its industrial operations at 15 plants in 13 countries, according to a company fact sheet posted on its website.

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 6. Telefield expects $11.8m from IPO
中国日报香港版 2011-01-27 HK Business, H02

Telefield International Holdings Ltd expects net proceeds from its initial public offering in Hong Kong to be HK$92 million ($11.8 million) after the company set the price of the shares at HK$1.20 each, according to a statement from the company in the South China Morning Post Wednesday.

Telefield plans to sell 100 million shares in the IPO, it said.

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 7. MEMBERSHIP HAS ITS PRIVILEGES
中国日报香港版 2011-01-27 HK Business, H03

Photo by Edmond Tang / China daily Dai Defeng, chairman of Hong Kong CPPCC (provincial) Members Association (left), shakes hand with David Lam, deputy chief executive of Bank of China (Hong Kong), during the bank’s dual-currency credit card issuing ceremony Wednesday.

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 8. Galaxy plans HK secondary listing
中国日报香港版 2011-01-27 HK Business, H02

Australian Stock Exchange-listed Galaxy Resources is looking to raise $200 million through a secondary listing in Hong Kong, IFR reported on Wednesday.

Joint bookrunners BNP Paribas and Morgan Stanley are set to bring the deal to the market next month, IFR said.

Galaxy is a producer of lithium, the essential component for powering electric cars.

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 9. Carrefour apologizes for overcharging
中国日报香港版 2011-01-27 Business Companies, P15

By Cai Xiao and Wang XingChina daily

BEIJING — The retail giant Carrefour SA made an official apology on Wednesday after 11 of its stores in China were found to have overcharged consumers with false pricing.The French retail company also said it will establish an internal group to enhance pricing control.

Chen Bo, spokesperson from Carrefour China, said in a statement that Carrefour “sincerely apologizes” for causing losses to the customers and promised to refund 5 times the difference.

“We will establish a special control group to further conduct internal price quality inspections with wider coverage and higher frequency,” said Chen, noting that the company will cooperate with local price inspection and supervisory bodies and involve them to provide special training on price quality control to related staff and managers.

Carrefour’s announcement came shortly after China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said Wednesday it found deceptive pricing practices during a national inspection at certain supermarket stores, including 11 stores of Carrefour SA and 3 stores of Wal-Mart Stores Inc.

NDRC also ordered local authorities to fine the supermarket involved five times the overcharged amount or up to 500,000 yuan ($97,197) if the amount cannot be calculated, according to the statement. Chen Zhijiang, an official at NDRC, told China National Radio that in all the cities they investigated, Carrefour stores were suspected of price cheating.

The investigation is part of the government’s efforts to curb inflation as the Chinese Spring Festival nears. “We will urge Carrefour to check all the stores and protect consumers’ interests,” the report quoted Chen as saying.

According to the report, the investigated cities are mainly provincial capitals including Tianjin, Shanghai, Wuhan, Shenyang.

Regulators selected 30 to 40 items at random and compared their label prices with selling prices, and there were always three or four items that were not consistent.

Zhang Xuejing, senior public relations manager at Wal-Mart China, said Wal-Mart attaches importance to price checking and insist on internal inspection and label management.

“Every week, there are 700 price supervisors to check more than 1 million items,” Zhang said, “We will seriously punish whoever is responsible for such acts.”Zhang also said that the company offers discounts on more than 10,000 high-quality products to customers.

The NDRC said on Wednesday that all supermarkets in China should avoid overcharging customers, adding that it will further strengthen price monitoring over the Lunar New Year period.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China’s GDP grew 9.8 percent in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, faster than the third quarter’s 9.6 percent increase.

The country’s consumer price index hit 4.6 percent in December, down from November’s 5.1 percent, which was a two-year high.

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10. Steel industry plan forged
中国日报香港版 2011-01-27 Business Economics, P14

Restructuring seen as key to improvements in manufacturing

By Zhang QiChina Daily

BEIJING — China’s top 10 steel mills will be able to contribute 60 percent of the country’s total steel output and 40 percent of the nation’s steel production will come from coastal areas in the 12th Five-Year Plan (2011-2015) period, said an official who was involved in working out the blueprint for the nation’s steel industry, which is set to be finalized soon.

A draft of that plan highlighted the priorities of increasing the concentration of the scattered steel industry, upgrading the industry technology, eliminating outdated capacity and encouraging steel companies to move to coastal bases, said an official from China’s steel lobby, China Iron & Steel Association (CISA), who wished to remain anonymous.

For several years, the nation has been encouraging big mills to merge with rivals to create more cohesive steel groups in an effort to address overcapacity, pollution and a disadvantageous position in price negotiations for iron ore.

China, the world’s largest steel producer and iron ore consumer, has less say in annual price talks with the big three global miners — Vale, BHP and Rio Tinto — because of the low concentration of its steel industry.

Media reported earlier this month that BHP has moved to a monthly set pricing after the three miners abandoned a 40-year tradition of annual iron ore negotiations in March and turned to quarterly pricing.

Hu Kai, an analyst from Umetals.com, said Chinese steel companies have to pay an extra $200 million this January for iron ore imported from BHP since it made that shift.

The central government aims to create several steel giants with an annual production capacity of over 50 million tons through mergers and acquisitions to reverse the situation.

Hebei Iron and Steel Group Co Ltd, China’s biggest steelmaker by output, said in January that it agreed to take 10 percent stakes in seven private steel mills to expand its production capacity and increase consolidation in Hebei province.

Hebei province— where 60 percent of the capacity comes from small private steel mills — is drafting a plan to reduce the number of its steel mills from 88 to 10 during the next five years.

The official from CISA said that because of increasing environmental pressure and the need to control logistical costs, the central government plans to gradually move its steel production to coastal areas.

According to the official, the government will accelerate the restructuring of the steel industry that is focused on China’s coast — with Anshan Steel in Liaoning province; Shougang in Caofeidian, Hebei province; Baosteel in Zhanjiang, Guangdong province; and Wuhan Iron and Steel Group in Fangchenggang, in the Guangxi Zhuang autonomous region.

For instance, China’s second-largest steelmaker by output, Baosteel, is expected to acquire Guangdong steel enterprises as part of its Zhanjiang project plan, a steel-production base with a planned annual capacity of 10 million tons along the coast of Guangdong province.

The official also said the 12th Five-Year Plan will highlight the preparation of new coastal bases in Fujian and Jiangsu provinces.

Another target of the plan is to increase the proportion of Chinese steelmakers’ self-supplying of iron ore by expanding domestic ore production and acquiring more overseas resources, he said.

Chinese steelmakers have been looking in recent years for more overseas ore assets to cut their reliance on expensive imports.

Deng Qilin, chairman of China’s third-largest steelmaker, Wuhan Steel, said his company will become self-sufficient in iron ore supplies in the next five years.

China’s domestic iron ore supplies have been rising for the last two years. During the first nine months of 2010, domestic iron ore output jumped 26 percent year-on-year to 780 million tons.

Domestic iron ore output is expected to exceed 1.3 billion tons within three to five years, said Zhou Zhongshu, president of China Minmetals Corp.

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11. Inflation concerns persist as prices increase
中国日报香港版 2011-01-27 Business Companies, P15

By LI WOKECHINA DAILY

BEIJING — Despite a series of government measures to curb inflation, prices of foods and staple goods have continued to rise, fuelling concerns over future tightening policies. However, experts have ruled out the possibility of sharp economic fluctuations.

The National Bureau of Statistics on Wednesday announced that prices of around 40 staple goods, such as crude oil and iron ore, have increased during the past fortnight.

Meanwhile, the Ministry of Commerce said on its website on Tuesday that wholesale prices for 18 types of vegetables increased 12.6 percent over the past week, as a result of planting and transportation difficulties caused by freezing temperatures in Southern China.

Some experts are worried that the inflation rate will continue to climb this month as demand surges ahead of the Spring Festival, which begins on Feb 3.

Lu Zhengwei, senior economist at Industrial Bank Co, forecast the consumer price index, the main gauge of inflation, will accelerate to 5.3 percent this month, outpacing November’s 28-month high of 5.1 percent.

The government has vowed to keep the inflation rate below 4 percent and has shifted its monetary policy from “moderate” to “prudent” this year because of concerns over credit-driven inflation.

Meanwhile the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), the country’s central bank, has made price control a top priority.

The PBOC has raised the benchmark interest rate twice and increased the reserve ratio requirement rate for banks seven times since January 2010.

China’s banks lent 7.95 trillion yuan ($1.21 trillion) last year, breaching the government’s credit target of 7.5 trillion yuan.

By Jan 24 this year, lending had reached 1.2 trillion yuan, and some banks may have exceeded the monthly quota within the first two weeks of the year, the China Securities Journal said.

Many economists agree that further tightening measures will be rolled out in the first half of the year to mop up excessive liquidity.

“Further increases in interest rates and the reserve requirement ratio are expected in February,” Lu said.

According to the HSBC economist, Sun Junwei, the central bank is likely to raise the reserve requirement ratio at least three times over the course of 2011, coupled with two interest rate hikes.

“The tightened monetary policies will not have a devastating impact on the markets, either domestically or overseas,” said Sun.

“On the one hand, the markets at home and abroad are all rebounding from the economic crisis. On the other, China’s prudent policy will prevent the domestic economy from overheating and will avoid a hard landing.”

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12. Ho moves to quell uproar over assets
中国日报香港版 2011-01-27 Front Page, P01

By Guo JiaxueChina Daily

hong kong — Gambling tycoon Stanley Ho has moved to quell a wave of publicity about disposition of his assets and stories of manipulation and possible fraud.

He went on local television Wednesday and confirmed that it was he who had ordered a reallocation of shares of holding company Lanceford, the largest shareholder in conglomerate Sociedade de Turismo e Diversoes de Macau (STDM). STDM owns 55.7 percent of Sociedade de Jogos de Macau (SJM), operator of most of the casinos in Macao.

The issue arose on Monday, when SJM issued a restructuring announcement stating that shares of Lanceford had been reallocated - with 50.5 percent going to Ho’s third wife, Ina Chan Un-chan, with the remainder going to the five children of Ho’s second wife, Lucina Laam King-ying.

Subsequent to that announcement, Ho’s lawyer Gordon Oldham stated Ho had been unaware of the re-allocation of Lanceford shares. Oldham claimed Ho’s wish was to divide his assets equally among his four families. Oldham quoted Ho as describing the Lanceford transaction as robbery.

Wednesday, Ho, reading a prepared statement, said that the big problem has been resolved. He added that he no longer requires the services of his lawyer Gordon Oldham. Ho invoked an earlier statement he had made. He said over the past years he has loved his families. They have never taken legal action against each other. The current dispute, however, has upset both Ho and his families. “Now I and my families are very happy. And I don’t expect any change to be made,” Ho said.

He spoke clearly but slowly, with extended pauses between sentences. The billionaire left directly after finishing his statement.The video statement was made from the home of Ho’s third wife, Chan. Chan and three daughters of his second wife were with him. Broadcaster RTHK indicated the video was recorded in the absence of television reporters.

The televised statement is consistent with two documents, one hand-written and the other printed, released by Chan. The two statements bearing Ho’s signature said his decision regarding share allocation was “100 percent genuine”, “after serious consideration” and that it was fair. . The family dispute, it said, was a misunderstanding and there had been no deception. The statement also noted Ho is firing his lawyer Oldham and giving “full authority” to Chan.

Oldham paid a short visit to Ho at around 4:30 pm after the TV statement and as he left, claimed he is still acting for Ho.

Oldham refused to make any comment or disclose whether he will issue legal proceeding as he had claimed the previous day.

Angela Ho, the third daughter of Ho’s first wife, issued a statement late Wednesday saying she did not believe her father would leave nothing to his first wife’s family. In frequent private conversations with Ho, she said he reiterated his public comments about dividing his assets equally.

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13. Clubs need to get financially fit
中国日报香港版 2011-01-27 Front Page, P01,P06

Waves of closures of fitness centers leave members sweating over prepaid fees. Duan Yan in Beijing reports.

Gym members nationwide are flexing their muscles in anger after a series of sudden closures that have left them out of pocket.

Every month one gym is shuttered in Beijing, according to the Body Building Association, while at the other end of the country in Kunming at least 20 went out of business during 2010.

When Aok08 Fitness Club in the capital’s Chaoyang district was closed “for renovation” in December, more than 100 members blocked the doors and demanded their fees be reimbursed. The gym briefly reopened only to close again, this time for good.

Property owners placed a sign on the window informing members to contact the club’s managers. “I called the consultant who handled my membership but his cell phone is now out of service,” said Li Zhaofeng, 32, who last September signed a two-year contract with the club. He has not yet received any compensation.

Closures: Gym users exercising rights

The closure is one of many to hit fitness fans in recent years, with even large chains like Nirvana, CSI Bally and Haosha are shutting branches to survive in a fiercely competitive market that insiders are too heavily discounted.

With 16 outlets and about 80,000 members nationwide, Nirvana is arguably the country’s leading gym brand. However, on Jan 12 executives suspended operations at five of its six Beijing clubs for three days over “rent issues”.

Handfuls of protesters, made suspicious by staff members packing up clothes, staged a demonstration to demand an explanation on the night before the temporary closure.

“We stayed there until very late that night,” said Xing Chuang, 38, who works out at the company’s Xicheng district branch. “I simply wanted an explanation for why they’re closing down and what they’re going to do for members.”

On Jan 12, thousands of members received an apology from Nirvana via a text message that said: “As a private company, we do not have support from the State or any consortium. In a highly competitive marketplace, it has not been easy for us to continue our business.” That day, hundreds gathered outside its branches to protest.

Rental price hikesFitness clubs are not the only businesses offering prepaid services that have gone bankrupt, leaving customers high and dry. Beauty salons, car valet centers and golf clubs, to name just a few, have been offering discounted membership cards for years. Many are finding that cut-price rates are not enough to cover their rising overheads.

“Although the price of everything else is going up, discount membership cards are more generous than ever,” said a gym consultant who was recently laid off and did not want to be identified for fear of damaging his job prospects.

“It costs only 4 or 5 yuan (60 or 75 cents) a day to go to a top Beijing gym with a swimming pool and sauna. That’s even cheaper than a public bathhouse.”

While gym owners complain that the lack of cash flow is the straw that is breaking the camel’s back, consumer protection groups say the lack of supervision for prepaid services is making it easy for companies to shut up shop and keep the money.

A spokesman for Nirvana who declined to give his name told China Daily he did not want to comment on the recent closures. However, shortly after Nirvana reopened its branches on Jan 15, general manager Wang Cheng told China Central Television that, in 2009, the company was running at a loss of 17 million yuan ($2.5 million). He said rental costs had almost tripled to 7 million this year.

“Every club is facing sharp rent hikes, while membership fees have continued to fall,” he told interviewers, adding that he felt the fierce competition had “hurt the market”. In response to questions about why Nirvana was still running promotions for new members two days before the temporary closure, he said it was a “normal business activity”.

The Nirvana closure was the second time Xing Chuang had been locked out by a gym. Until 2001, he exercised at a small fitness center that also shut without notifying members. “Luckily, that time, it was the last month of my membership, so I didn’t lose that much,” he said. “Although (the incident) was one of the reasons I decided to join a large gym with a good reputation.”

Xing, who recently paid 5,999 yuan to renew his membership with Nirvana until 2015, added: “It’s not about money. I’m more worried about where I can go to work out if Nirvana goes out of business. The situation at other gyms might be even worse.”

Liu Tao was one of thousands of people affected when CSI Bally closed its franchise in Beijing’s Jianwai Soho on Sept 13. He said that even though “they haven’t dealt with us”, CSI Bally executives were telling the media that they planned to absorb Nirvana’s costumers.

To get his money back, the 34-year-old has filed complaints with the Beijing Consumers’ Association and Chaoyang district’s industrial and commercial bureau, contacted the media and joined online discussion groups. He also visited a franchise owned by the same people to negotiate. Every method has so far failed.

Song Kai, director of human resources and administration at CSI Bally, told China Daily that all resolutions will be done “according to the law”. He refused to elaborate. Meanwhile, Beijing Redstone Jianwai Real Estate, the property management firm that runs Jianwai Soho is now suing the franchise’s owners, Beijing Sanhuan Fitness Co Ltd, for unpaid rent.

A notice posted outside the gym directed users to an alternative branch about 4 kilometers away. However, angry members in a QQ instant messenger group complained they had received no refunds for the money they paid up front for personal training sessions.

Stricter laws Liu said he consulted lawyers about members filing a joint lawsuit but was told that, as the consumers were not related, they could only file actions separately.

“I’ve suggested (to policymakers) several times that they change the law and allow consumer associations to represent people in joint lawsuits against businesses,” said Qiu Baochang, director of Beijing Lawyers Association’s consumer rights protection committee. “So far the change hasn’t happened.”

In the meantime, Qiu is calling for stricter supervision of businesses that offer prepaid services.

In 1998, the People’s Bank of China and the State Administration of Industry and Commerce introduced a membership card trial, which required issuers of such cards to have net assets of at least 50 million yuan. Fixed assets had to be at least 50 percent of total assets.

However, five years later, the central bank lost its regulatory function to approve membership cards in the revision of the Banking Law. The procedure was abolished in 2007, the same year the China Consumers’ Association listed “prepaid traps” as a major difficulty in protecting consumer rights. Today, no regulations protect customers who sign up to prepaid services.

In Japan, where laws on prepayment are extremely strict, companies must deposit prepaid revenue in a special bank account that stops them disappearing with the money, said Wu Jingming, an associate professor of economic law at China University of Political Science. That way, if the company folds, customers are guaranteed compensation.He also explained that, even though there is no national legislation on prepaid services in China, some cities have introduced regulations to protect consumers.

In Beijing, for example, rules introduced in October 2010 require businesses to inform customers before they relocate or cancel services, as well as offer reimbursement.

Deputy Mayor Cheng Hong also recently told a meeting to discuss the government work report that the municipal authority is drafting laws to offer consumers more legal protection.

Officials and lawyers in Qingdao, a coastal city in East China’s Shandong province, in January drafted a regulation that proposes the use of a third-party platform to limit the likelihood of businesses leaving customers out in the cold.

“We still need to explore the feasibility, such as when the money can be paid to the merchant,” said Sun Peixu, general secretary of Qingdao’s consumer protection committee. Future discussions with financial institutions are needed before the regulation comes into effect on Mar 15, the World Consumer Rights Day, he added.

Every club is facing sharp rent hikes. When the price of everything else is going up, discounts for gym membership cards have been more generous than ever. It costs just 4 or 5 yuan a day to go to a top Beijing gym that has a swimming pool and sauna. That’s cheaper than even a public bathhouse.”

An unemployment Gym consultant in beijing

I simply wanted an explanation from the gym about why they’re closing down. It’s not about money, I’m more worried about where I can go to work out if Nirvana goes out of business. The situation in other gyms might be even worse.”Xing ChuangNirvana gym member

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14. Plans afoot for petrochemical hub in Tianjin
中国日报香港版 2011-01-27 Business, P13

By Rong Xiaozheng and Wang YuChina Daily

TIANJIN — Tianjin has been selected for development into a world-class petrochemical industry base and national crude-oil reserve hub within 10 years, with an annual 40 million ton refining capacity and 2.5 million tons of ethylene production, and a 30 million cubic meter (cu m) crude oil reserve.

China Daily learned on the sidelines of the 15th People’s Congress of Tianjin that during the 12th Five-Year Plan (2011-2015), intensive efforts are planned to mold Tianjin into a world-class center by 2020, with a crude oil refinery and ethylene cracker in the Nangang Industrial Zone of the Tianjin Economical-Technological Development Area.

“With the equipment to produce 1.2 million tons of ethylene annually, Tianjin is already among the highest-rated petrochemical industry cities. The National Development and Reform Committee (NDRC) has agreed to its constructing an ethylene cracker with another 1.2 million ton capacity annually.

And the construction of the Sino-Russian 13 million ton oil refinery project, with a 36.6 billion yuan ($5.56 billion) investment, is in full swing,” He Shushan, head of the administrative committee of Tianjin Economical-Technological Development Area, told China Daily.

The Sino-Russian Oriental Petroleum & Chemical (Tianjin) Co Ltd oil refinery will process Russian crude oil, whose products include gasoline, diesel, aviation kerosene and liquefied gas. The project is a major step toward transforming the Nangang Industrial Zone into a world-class petrochemical base and integrated-function area.

When it opens, it will have the capacity to generate 62.2 billion yuan in annual sales revenues.

In 2010, Sinopec completed and opened China’s largest combined refinery and ethylene cracker in Tianjin. The facility, which has world-class equipment, has a capacity of 1 million tons of ethylene and 10 million tons of refined oil annually.

According to He, a China National Pertoleum Corp (CNPC) 1 million cu m crude-oil commercial reserve project was completed in December and has met the qualifications. Built with a total investment of 980 million yuan, this facility aims to store imported crude oil together with other commercial crude-oil projects of CNPC in Shanshan of the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, and Lanzhou of Gansu and Tieling of Liaoning provinces.

Meanwhile, the construction of a Sinopec crude-oil commercial reserve base in Tianjin began in May, with a planed capacity of 3.2 million cu m, to help satisfy the increasing demand for petroleum resources in North China — especially Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei province — and ensure national oil security.

“Under the long-term plan of the Nangang Industrial Zone, the total crude-oil reserve will amount to more than 30 million cubic meters,” He said.

The construction of the crude-oil reserve project is a crucial addition to the national reserve system, which is important in stabilizing China’s energy supply market, coping with emergencies and controlling abnormal supply and demand oil price fluctuations.

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15. Measures to tame property market
中国日报香港版 2011-01-27 Front Page, P01,P02

2nd-home down payment raised to 60%; price targets ‘must be set’

By Hu YuanyuanChina Daily

BEIJING — The State Council raised the minimum down payment for second-home buyers to 60 percent from the current 50 percent on Wednesday, and called on local governments to set price targets in the latest move to rein in property prices.

The new measures are expected to further cool speculation in the housing market after property prices in 70 major cities posted their fourth straight month-on-month rise.

The mortgage rates for second-home buyers, however, remain unchanged at 1.1 times the benchmark lending rate, according to a statement posted on www.gov.cn.

“The 10 percent increase in down payment will have a big impact on the middle- and high-end housing market,” said Carlby Xie, head of research and consulting for North China at Colliers International, a real estate agency.

The price for a two-bedroom apartment in Beijing along the Fourth Ring Road now stands at close to 3 million yuan ($450,000). A 10 percent increase in down payment means the buyer has to pay 300,000 yuan more.

The average annual income of a civil servant is around 100,000 yuan.

Local governments must set property price targets in line with local income levels for 2011 and the targets should be made public in the first quarter, the State Council said.

Those who fail to meet the targets will have to explain to the State Council, the statement said.

Local governments are also required to set a cap on the number of apartments residents can purchase.

People who already have an apartment are allowed to buy another but those with two apartments will not be permitted to buy any more, according to the statement.

“A sound implementation of these measures will definitely weigh down property prices, especially in second- and third-tier cities where speculative purchases are rampant,” said Xie. “But for major cities such as Beijing and Shanghai, the impact will be small as the housing supply is limited.”

Wang Gehong, president of Beijing GrandChina Real Estate Fund, said some administrative measures, such as purchase restrictions, are temporary, and “aim to curb speculation”.

They will help the government gain more time to boost supply, especially of affordable housing, he said.

Such measures are also necessary to curtail developers’ windfall profits and put the industry on more solid foundations, he added.

Industry statistics show that the profit margin for developing a property project ranges from 25 percent to 30 percent.

“There is no doubt that the government will further tighten control over the property market this year, and we are going to see a big drop in property investment and newly started housing projects,” said Ren Zhiqiang, chairman of Huayuan Real Estate.

“We expect floor space sold in 2011 will increase 10 percent to exceed 4 billion square meters, but the year-on-year price growth rate will drop this year.”

Property prices registered their smallest year-on-year gains in December, after peaking at 12.8 percent in April.

Housing: Property bubble ‘may cause financial crisis’

Despite the slowing annual growth rate, property prices in 70 surveyed cities posted their fourth straight month-on-month rise, with the gain in December standing at 0.3 percent, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.

China should be cautious about the risk of a real estate bubble, World Bank Chief Economist and Senior Vice-President Justin Yifu Lin said on Tuesday.

“China must carefully study the cases of Japan and Ireland, where the collapse of the real estate bubble … caused a financial crisis and economic stagnation,” Lin told a symposium at Peking University.

According to Peng Wensheng, chief economist with China International Capital Corp Ltd, asset bubbles are a major challenge facing China. “A widening wealth gap is one of the major risks from ballooning housing prices, which will lead to social instability,” said Peng.

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16. Abode of the gods
中国日报香港版 2011-01-27 Life Travel, P19

Nothing is as satisfying as watching dawn break over Annapurna. All is still and silent, except for the soft crunch of snow under thick-soled boots, as the mountains poke through the mist, bathed in the tawny glow of the Nepalese sun.

In 2010, 79,000 trekkers, mostly from Southeast Asia, flocked to the vast Annapurna Sanctuary, hoping to catch a glimpse of the vast amphitheater of Himalayan peaks. We were one such group.

Getting there, however, was no easy feat, especially for a large group like ours.Of the three routes available, we chose the 12-day Annapurna Sanctuary trek, through forests of oak, rhododendron and Gurung villages — the perfect route for 23 rowdy high school students who craved adventure yet were unwilling to relinquish the luxury of hot showers for more than two weeks.

And we chose the perfect time, October, late enough to escape the monsoon, but early enough to avoid the risk of being crushed by winter avalanches.

We began our journey well-fed, rested and full of anticipation, making our way from the coastal tourist city of Pokhara to the start of our trek in one of Nepal’s many double-decker “hippie buses” — complete with vinyl seats and intricate Buddhist graffiti adorning its walls.

Sticking our heads out of the window, we watched throngs of tourists threading in and out of dusty streets, and enjoyed the scent of hot local breads, known as chapatti, wafting from the market stalls, reveling in the cacophony of the civilized world before embarking on our trek.

The first days of hiking, from Dhampus to Landrung, was surprisingly relaxed. I was expecting rugged, rocky landscapes and vigorous uphill climbs. Instead, there were flat, stone paths, chestnut forests, locals tending to their crops and rolling hills that looked like cake batter falling into a tin tray.

Protected within the Annapurna Conservation Area, it felt like strolling through a Shangri-La of lush green and wispy cirrus clouds.

I was beginning to think my full pack of blister pads and dehydration salts were redundant. How wrong I was.

As we entered the gateway to the Annapurna Sanctuary, the light green hues darkened and a jagged path dotted with suspension bridges hanging precariously between two cliffs, appeared. The oppressive heat and harsh incline of the slope instantly wiped off our eager grins and killed all conversation.

While I trudged on in my shiny Columbia hiking boots, the porters, ranging in age from 15 to 50, bounded up cracked stone steps with 10 kg packs strapped on their backs and flimsy plastic sandals on their feet. As we stepped aside to let them pass (giving way to the porters being the golden rule of Annapurna courtesy), I could only muster a shame-faced nod of admiration and disbelief.

Tourist hikers were easily distinguishable by their elaborate fanny packs, hiking poles, waterproof pants and ankle-high Gortex shoes. Regardless of nationality, we greeted fellow hikers with a nod and a breathless namaste, or hello, proudly displaying the full extent of our Nepalese vocabulary.

Frequently, especially at the beginning of the trek, groups of elderly women, approached us with bags of handmade goods. Even the most frugal among us could not but help succumb to their persuasive marketing — “300 rupees, you buy? Very, very nice, wear this bracelet, no more bad luck”.

Other locals worked at the many lodges dotting the way with names such as “Hungry Eye” and “Sherpo Lodge”, where we stocked up on glass bottles of coke, melted Twix bars and Nepalese Tea.

At mealtimes, we huddled around a rectangular table, chatting, playing cards, and rewinding after a hard day’s work. The food was mostly Nepalese fare, dahl (lentils), rice, curry, and chapatti, accompanied by a variety of American Diner-type dishes, such as potatoes, buttered rolls and a bizarre desert — the Snickers roll (baked chocolate bars).

Whatever the delicacy served, we shoveled it into our mouths with enthusiasm. We devoured anything edible. The Himalayas have a way of curing picky eaters.

Days typically started at 6 am and ended at 8:30 pm, when the sky turned pitch black. Guided by the soft glow of our headlamps, we would then shuffle to our rooms, and collapse on the beds and savor the delicious warmth of our sleeping bags.

Solar-powered hot showers in tin huts, were a luxury. However, if we did manage to scrape a hot shower and enjoyed more than five minutes of steaming bliss, we would suffer, inevitably, from the vicious glares of fellow hikers.

Each day of the trek, the altitude rose, forcing us to down a white Diamox pill (to combat altitude sickness) with our breakfast. We also began to get clearer views of the snow-capped, 7,000-meter high Mount Macchapachure, dubbed “Fishtail” after its pointed double summit. Considered sacred to the God Shiva, it’s off limits to hikers.

It rained on our final day toward the foot of Mount Macchapachure, an incessant, frustrating drizzle that clung to our ponchos and soaked our packs.

We watched our feet intently, cautious not to step on ubiquitous piles of cowpat, wondering how on earth a cow had managed to find its way up all those jagged stone steps that had taken us hours to climb. With the entire landscape encased in a thick fog, all we could do was walk on blindly, knowing that the majestic fishtail loomed somewhere in the distance.

The climax of our trek, however, was walking to Annapurna Base Camp, waking up at 3:30 am, clad in full gear — thermals, fleeces, goose-downs, outer ski-layers — and making our way single file through the darkness.We arrived just in time to see Annapurna wake up. The fog lifted and the peaks, from Annapurna I to Hintchuli, became visible in the sunlight.

For a moment, we felt miniscule, insignificant, dwarfed by these majestic peaks. Annapurna I, that soars 8,091 meters into the sky, is the 10th highest summit in the world. The mountains, so rugged, so white and pristine, and so untouched by man, seemed to be daring us to take them on.

We had reached the end of our trip and I thought about the others, Frenchman Maurice Herzog in the 1950s, alpinist Ian Clough in the 70s, for whom reaching the base camp was only the beginning.

Would I come back and try to join the list of successful mountaineers? The prospect, I must say, while I stood at the foothills, gazing upwards at the peaks, was tempting.

But, alas, that is for another time. After a dozen more camera flashes and several mugs of hot chocolate, we began our return trek — a big relief.

We were sunburned, hungry, covered in grime and sweat and had blisters the size and shape of beetles in between our toes — and yet we were full of euphoria.

I was elated and feeling smug — we had trekked over 94.45 km and climbed 10,173 meters. All I needed was a hot, steaming shower.

Gazing at the majestic peaks of the Annapurna mountain range in Nepal is nothing short of magical, Liu Yi-ling discovers.

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17. Xinyuan looks for investors to help finance land purchases
中国日报香港版 2011-01-27 Business Companies, P16

By HENRY SANDERSONBLOOMBERG NEWS

BEIJING — Xinyuan Real Estate Co, a Chinese developer that sells apartments to middle-income consumers, plans to seek investors to help finance land purchases as bank-lending curbs limit funding for smaller property companies.

Beijing-based Xinyuan, which builds homes in cities including Suzhou and Chengdu, may approach State-owned enterprises and private equity companies to seed a captive fund, Chief Financial Officer Thomas Gurnee said in an interview.

“Buying new land has become more difficult with the recent policy changes,” Gurnee said. “Construction lending is the most attractive option to us, but we can only borrow against projects we already own.”

China imposed limits on bank lending and raised interest rates twice since October to slow inflation that reached a 28-month high in November, threatening expansion in the fastest-growing major economy. Though the government suspended mortgages for third-home purchases to try to cool property demand, real estate prices rose for a 19th month in December.

While banks will still lend developers as much as 70 percent of the value of their assets, they stopped allowing companies to use money borrowed against existing projects for new land purchases last year, according to Gurnee.

“The government restrictions are working, making it difficult for us,” he said. “Low equity prices make share sales an unattractive means of financing. Xinyuan is ‘too small’ to get approval to issue yuan-denominated bonds, and bond sales in dollars are too expensive,” he said.

Xinyuan’s American depositary receipts fell 7.6 percent to $2.43 in New York this year and have lost 40 percent of their value in the past year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The company may follow Fosun Group and developer China Overseas Land & Investment Ltd in turning to private investors as an alternative to loans, bond or share sales. A group led by Shanghai-based Fosun, a unit of Fosun International Ltd, has raised about 5 billion yuan ($759 million) since September through a private equity fund to invest in property, the company confirmed on Tuesday. China Overseas said last year it would set up a fund of as much as $500 million to finance projects.

“There will be very stringent requirements around lending to developers. Many of them won’t get funding this year,” said Chris Brooke, Beijing-based president and chief executive officer for Asia of CB Richard Ellis Group Inc.

“The broader plan is to convert some of that bank- lending liquidity into more institutional capital from the insurance companies, some of the bigger trust companies and some of the bigger State-owned financial organizations.”

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18. Sinopharm plan to spend 5b yuan on acquisitions
中国日报香港版 2011-01-27 Business Companies, P16

By LIZA LIN AND SIMEON BENNETTBLOOMBERG NEWS SHANGHAI — Sinopharm Group Co, China’s biggest drug distributor, plans to spend at least 5 billion yuan ($759 million) buying companies in the next two years after agreeing to its largest acquisition since going public.

Sinopharm has spent about 5 billion yuan acquiring more than 60 companies since its initial share sale in September 2009, said Wu Aimin, the Shanghai-based company’s deputy general manager. It plans to spend a similar amount through 2012 to expand to 300 cities in China from about 100 cities now, Wu said.

“In 2011, we will still continue to make many acquisitions,” Wu said. “We are considering opportunities in all the mature cities in China.”

The company said it agreed to pay as much as 1.3 billion yuan for 60 percent of two units of Le Ren Tang Pharmaceutical Group Co, or LRT, to expand in China’s northern Hebei province. The acquisition prices closely held LRT at as much as 25 times 2010 earnings, making it Sinopharm’s largest and most expensive acquisition since the IPO, said Jinsong Du, an analyst at Credit Suisse AG.

“My initial reaction is that it is still a shock to me that the P/E is this much,” Du said from Hong Kong. “I wouldn’t consider this acquisition a bargain, definitely not, but at least it’s not negative.”

Du is one of 13 analysts tracked by Bloomberg who recommend buying the stock. None have a “sell” rating.

Sinopharm fell 1.5 percent to HK$27 ($3.47) as of the 4 pm close in Hong Kong trading, giving the company a market value of HK$61.1 billion.

Competitors including Shanghai Pharmaceuticals Holding Co have made acquisitions at as much as 50 times earnings, suggesting Sinopharm would have to pay more to expand, Du said.

The company paid an average of 10 times earnings for the acquisitions in 2010, and as much as 20 times toward the end of the year as competition intensified, Wu said.

Such valuations are still “uncommon and few” and acquisition prices in the industry probably won’t rise further, he said.

The latest purchase gives Sinopharm stakes in the distribution and retail businesses of LRT, which has a 30 percent market share in Hebei, Sinopharm said in a statement. LRT, the largest drug distributor in the province, sells more than 20,000 pharmaceutical products to more than 1,000 hospitals, it said.

The company expects the purchase to boost revenue from the province, which borders the capital Beijing and the port city of Tianjin, to 10 billion yuan by 2012, Wu said, without specifying the current sales figures.

Sinopharm’s revenue rose 36 percent to 31.6 billion yuan in the half year ended June 30, and net income climbed 27 percent to 628.6 million yuan.

“We’ve been market leaders in Beijing and Tianjin, but in Hebei we’ve been quite small,” Wu said.

China’s government is implementing a plan to spend 850 billion yuan to expand basic health-care services throughout the country by this year. The nation’s pharmaceutical-industry sales will expand as much as 27 percent in 2011 to more than $50 billion, making it the world’s third-biggest drug market, IMS Health Inc said in October.

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19. US will lose business if export controls remain in place
中国日报香港版 2011-01-27 Business, P13

By DING QINGFENCHINA DAILY

BEIJING — The United States will probably allow huge business opportunities to go to European Union (EU) countries and Japan if it refuses to rescind controls on exports to China as soon as possible, according to Chinese government officials.

The comments came at a monthly forum on China-US Economic Relations held by the China Center for International Economic Exchanges (CCIEE) — a high-level business thinktank — on Wednesday.

Wei Jianguo, a former vice-minister of commerce, and now secretary-general of the CCIEE, urged the US to quickly reduce restrictions on high-tech exports to China in a bid to narrow the trade surplus, an issue that has become central to bilateral trade conflicts.

“The sooner the US does it (loosens the restrictions), the more leverage it will gain in the future and the more commercial benefits it will gain … otherwise, the business opportunities (in terms of high-volume Chinese imports of high-tech products) will naturally slip away to other nations, including those in the EU and Japan,” said Wei.

During the 3rd China-EU High-Level Economic and Trade Dialogue held in Beijing in December, the EU agreed to set up a working panel to examine boosting high-tech sales to China.

A meeting on the issue is expected to be held early this year, after the two sides reached a consensus on increasing cooperation on high-tech trade.

China has a large trade surplus with the US, which the US attributes to the yuan being undervalued.China denies this, and says that the best way to promote Chinese imports is for the US to abandon its restrictions on high-tech exports.

The export of high-tech products to China, for both military and civilian use, has long been forbidden by the US despite repeated calls for change.

During President Hu Jintao’s four-day visit to Washington last week, China again made a proposal on the issue during the bilateral high-level meeting.

Although China signed a series of agreements on purchasing US goods worth as much as $45 billion, no progress was made on the issues of export controls.

“China and the US have been cooperating well, but US export controls are a big problem in bilateral economic relations,” said Sun Zhenyu, the former Chinese ambassador to the World Trade Organization, at the forum.

“US exports to China would easily increase if such a restriction did not exist.”Some US companies have also agreed with that statment.

“The US government has to look at reducing controls, because erecting barriers cannot be the answer to US need to create jobs and prosperous growth,” said Mark Norbom, president of General Electric China.

GE, the largest US industrial company by market value, announced a number of deals with Chinese groups last week that will create about 4,500 jobs in the US, including the formal signing of a joint venture agreement with the Aviation Industry Corporation of China to set up a 50-50 joint venture to provide avionics for the new Chinese C919 airliner.

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20. Shaw to sell entire 26% stake in TVB
中国日报香港版 2011-01-27 HK Business, H03

Investor group headed by Charles Chan to obtain shares worth HK$5.2 billion

By George NgChina Daily

Television Broadcasts Ltd (TVB), the owner of Hong Kong’s biggest TV station, said that Chairman Sir Run Run Shaw agreed Wednesday to sell Shaw Brothers (Hong Kong) Ltd’s entire 26 percent stake in the company to an investor group controlled by businessman Charles Chan.

The financial terms for the transaction have yet to be made public. The stake is worth approximately HK$5.2 billion based on the current share price of TVB, which closed up 2.8 percent at HK$49.50 Wednesday.

Private equity firm Providence Equity Partners and Cher Wang – co-founder and chairperson of Taiwanese smart phone maker HTC Corporation – are the other two members of Chan’s group, according to a TVB statement filed to the Hong Kong stock exchange late Wednesday. Charles Chan is chairman of ITC Corp Ltd, a listed investment holding company.

The transaction is expected to be completed by March 31 of this year, TVB said in the statement.

Simultaneously, Shaw’s charity arm – the Shaw Foundation Hong Kong Limited, which currently holds a 6.23 percent stake in TVB – will also sell a portion of its shareholding to independent third parties by the same deadline, TVB said.

Upon completion of the transactions, the Shaw Foundation, TVB Deputy Chairperson and Managing Director Mona Fong – who currently owns approximately a 0.26 percent stake in TVB – and Chan’s group will in total hold directly and indirectly less than 30 percent of TVB, the broadcaster said.

The transaction won’t lead to a compulsory general offer for the rest of the company’s shares. Investors acquiring stakes exceeding 30 percent of public companies in Hong Kong are required to make bids to buy out other shareholders under local listing rules.

In a separate statement, TVB said its current management will remain unchanged while Charles Chan, Cher Wang and Providence Equity Partners’ CEO Jonathan Nelson will join the board of directors after the transaction is completed.

The deal draws an end to Sir Run Run Shaw’s many decades in show business as well as settle persistent speculations about potential acquirers of Shaw’s stake in the broadcaster.

Earlier this month, speculation that a group including Shanghai Media Group and PCCW Ltd Chairman Richard Li may take over TVB helped fuel a strong rally in TVB’s share price.Before that, reports in September 2010 said Henderson Land Development’s Vice Chairman Lee Ka-kit was interested in buying a stake in TVB.

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21. Palm oil declines
中国日报香港版 2011-01-27 Business Markets, P17

KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia — Palm oil declined for a second straight day on expectations that export demand from China, the world’s biggest user of cooking oils, may slow ahead of next week’s lunar new year holiday after buyers completed purchases.

The April-delivery contract lost as much as 2.2 percent to 3,622 ringgit ($1,186) a ton in Kuala Lumpur and was at 3,670 ringgit at 4:05 pm on Wednesday.

Palm oil export data from Malaysia showed shipments to China fell 6.7 percent in the first 25 days of January compared with the same period the previous month, Societe Generale de Surveillance has estimated.

Prices of palm oil and rival soybean oil rallied to the highest level in more than two years earlier this month.Bloomberg News

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22. Once you've seen National Day crowds you've seen it all
中国日报香港版 2011-01-27 Life Pulse, P20

By Erik NilssonChina Daily

They looked like rage zombies.Cast in the streetlights’ eerie glow, the crowds shrieked as they scrambled toward the buses, clawing their way through the vehicles’ doors, in what could have been a scene from 28 Days Later. Once inside, they dropped into their seats, as if deactivated.

The parking lot’s giant wooden gate had become a floodgate for crowds. Every time a new fleet of buses arrived, the guards would swing it open and the human deluge dammed behind the fences would burst forth, whooshing out to engulf the vehicles.

Some less patient and more daring individuals clamored over the fences from their spots toward the back of the line, eliciting a half-hearted pursuit by police officers positioned along the barriers to prevent that very thing.

Some made it on the buses. Others zipped into the inky blackness of the surrounding forest, vanishing before our eyes. When the next convoys pulled up, these sprinters re-emerged from the wooded shadows in flashes of motion-blurred limbs, blasting toward the vehicles’ doors.

These were the National Day holiday crowds at Hunan province’s Zhangjiajie — the Golden Week mash of travelers my wife and I had been warned about but had never seen in our more than four years in the country.

Somehow, we had traveled for 13 consecutive Golden Weeks, mostly in China, without encountering the notorious vacationing swarms.

We even visited Hainan province during the Spring Festival of 2007, when it was reportedly the country’s No 1 Golden Week destination. Some of the seaside strands in the tropical island’s premier resort town, Sanya city, were downright desolate.

We had been worried about the throngs when we booked our first Golden Week trip out of town to Shandong province’s Taishan. We’d been told this mountain would be shoulder-to-shoulder and braced for several hours of cramped climbing.

However, we were amazed to encounter only a half-a-dozen others scaling the alp. When our Chinese got better and we re-examined the map, we realized this was perhaps because we’d unintentionally scaled the less popular and more treacherous Wild Western Route, while the Central Route was likely spilling over with tourists.

The only time crowds had in any way affected our lunar new year celebrations was actually not in China but rather in Vietnam, where Tet, which overlapped with the Chinese Spring Festival, meant the hotel rooms in some cities were overbooked.

Having heard of, but never actually seen, China’s telltale holiday hordes, Carol and I eventually chalked up the hullabaloo to distinct cultural conceptions of “crowded”.

It did strike us as peculiar that we Americans would be less sensitive to being crunched among legions of people than our Chinese friends but didn’t give it much thought beyond that.

That is, until our trip to Zhangjiajie.Our host family, who graciously spent their time off escorting my parents, my wife and me around the scenic spot, despite having been there dozens of times, had tried to warn us.

“You should know it will be very busy and crowded during Golden Week,” I was told before our departure. Again, I presumed this cautionary e-mail hinged on the aforementioned culturally subjective conceptions of “crowded”.

Oh, but what we experienced in Zhangjiajie that day would qualify under any society’s objective definition of the word.

The rage zombie scene was but the winding down of a day spent in the close quarters of far-reaching lines.

At the apex, we spent more than four hours squished in a crush of bodies, waiting for a cable car to Huangshizhai scenic area.

By the day’s end, we were actually happy to have had such close encounters with fellow travelers. As our host and biological families agreed, it was a “true China experience”.

But while we’re grateful to have actually witnessed this previously elusive societal phenomenon, perhaps going through it once is enough.

So this Spring Festival Golden Week, we plan to make tracks in the silver sands of overseas beaches. Malaysia, here we come!

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23. Pet bunnies face grim Year of Rabbit
中国日报香港版 2011-01-27 HK Focus, H04

It’s supposed to be their year - but animal welfare groups fear the Year of the Rabbit may begin with torment for some animals bought as pets and then abandoned in Hong Kong, writes Simon Parry.

Animal activist Ashley Fruno has good reason to be concerned for rabbits taken on as pets in Hong Kong over the Chinese New Year: She used to have three of them living free range in her Vancouver apartment and knows exactly how disruptive their presence can be.

“They eat absolutely everything from shoes to shower curtains to the furniture and flooring,” said Fruno, a senior campaigner for People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals (PETA) in Hong Kong. “For some reason, they have a tendency to love to chew electrical wire. One of my rabbits chewed through the telephone cord more than 15 times.”

Fruno was tolerant enough to put up with the domestic mayhem. Her worry is that in the days and weeks ahead, rabbits taken on by families in Hong Kong will be less willing to put up with the pure bedlam that a pet rabbit can bring.

It is the prospect of rabbits bought on impulse or as Chinese New Year gifts that worries PETA, which along with the Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals (SPCA) has launched a campaign to make people more aware of the responsibility of a pet rabbit.

According to the Hong Kong Rabbit Society, rabbits are the third most neglected animals in Hong Kong after cats and dogs with SPCA figures showing that around 200 a year are abandoned by their owners. And the situation could worsen over the Chinese New Year, Fruno believes.

“We have seen in the past how at the time of the movie Finding Nemo everyone wanted to buy fish and when 101 Dalmatians came out, people bought Dalmatians,” she said. “We are very concerned that with the Year of the Rabbit everyone will rush out and buy a rabbit.

“Of course everyone thinks rabbits are cute and cuddly but speaking as someone who has had many rabbits in my lifetime I can say while they are cute and cuddly they are also very high maintenance animals that require a great deal of time and resources which most people don’t realise.”

Despite their sometimes destructive instincts, rabbits can adjust surprisingly well to high-rise living with patient owners. “They can live happily in apartments but they can’t live in cages which some people think they can,” said Fruno.

“Rabbits require a great deal of exercise. They are marketed in pet shops as animals that can be caged and can be fulfilled in cage whereas in fact that is absolutely not true. The other thing people need to be aware of is that rabbits live for eight to 10 years.

“People assume they may only live for a couple of years, but eight to 10 years is really big commitment of course. You need to be able to look into the future and say ‘Where will I be in 10 years time? Can I commit to the rabbit for that entire time?’

“Like cats and dogs, if they are abandoned into the wild they will suffer from separation anxiety and they will die. Domestic rabbits have no idea how to fend for themselves when they are released into the wild.”

PETA’s advice to people in the run-up to the New Year holiday is not to give rabbits as pets. “Giving pets as a gift is never a good idea because the recipient may not be as excited about the purchase as the giver,” Fruno said.

According to Fiona Woodhouse, deputy director (welfare) with the SPCA, the domestic rabbit population in Hong Kong is growing, with people increasingly choosing more exotic species such as Dwarf rabbits and Lop Bunnies for pets.

The most recent census of household pets in 2005 found they accounted for some 2.3 percent of the pet population compared to around 38 percent for dogs, 19 percent for cats, 19 percent for turtles and tortoises, 10 percent for birds and 7 percent for hamsters.

“Rabbits are getting more popular,” Woodhouse said. “Since 2004, we are on average homing probably 20 percent more rabbits a year. We homed 126 rabbits in 2010. In 2004, the figure was around 100.

“I think people realise rabbits are interesting creatures in their own right and people are getting more responsible as well. We are also getting a reduction in abandonment rates. In 2004 and 2005, the total number abandoned was 276 and 263 respectively. In 2009 and 2010 it was 188 and 195.”

The SPCA believes that the reason for the rising rabbit ownership levels and the falling levels of abandonment is that Hong Kong people are becoming more mature and responsible over pet ownership and generally more aware of animal welfare issues.

“People realise you don’t just get a bunny and it lives for a year or two,” Woodhouse said. “Rabbits have a life span with proper veterinary care and a good owner of eight to 12 years which is comparable to cats and some dogs.”

Owners were also becoming more adept at choosing breeds that might be more suited to their housing - and rabbits are in fact good at adapting to living in apartments with the correct preparation, she said.

“You can toilet-train them,” Woodhouse said. “They do have a natural habit in the wild of toileting in a certain area so you can work with that and get them relatively toilet-trained.

“You have to make your flat a little rabbit-proof. Electric wiring is a problem because they like to chew on things.

“You can also train them to a degree with positive reinforcement. I have seen people training bunnies to come to them when they reward them with food. People have also become more educated about the diet of rabbits. As a result we are seeing less dental and gut problems - those are the major issues with pet bunnies.”

In the run-up to the last Year of the Rabbit 12 years ago, the SPCA ran a similar awareness campaign in Hong Kong to deter people from giving rabbits as gifts.

Encouragingly, statistics show there was no noticeable rise in abandonment after the New Year period.

Whether the same positive result can be achieved in 2011 may depend as much on pet shops and advertising companies as pet owners, according to Woodhouse.

“I am aware that certain pet shops are stocking up on rabbits because they think they will sell more in the Year of the Rabbit,” she said. “So while the Hong Kong public has got more sophisticated in their understanding of issues, the pet trade may have become more sophisticated in its marketing techniques.

“We may actually see the pet trade playing on the Year of the Rabbit and hoping to push sales, which would be disappointing.

“Historically we have tended to see more problems with bunnies associated with Easter and with marketing campaigns. People may get a load of rabbits for a TV commercial for instance and film the commercial then find themselves left with five or six baby rabbits who need to be homed.

“More often, in the past, we’ve seen displays at malls where animals have been used. We’ve had Easter displays with live rabbits hopping around. It is a little bit short-sighted and very detrimental in terms of welfare because the animals obviously don’t like the environment and at the end of the day they haven’t got a home to go to.”

The SPCA’s advice to people is not to buy animals as a gift - and if you do consider taking on a pet rabbit, adopt one rather than buying one from a pet shop. “We always say don’t give any animal as a gift,” said Woodhouse.

“If you go out and give a random gift to someone who isn’t expecting it might be cute at the time but six months later when the animal is bigger it might be neglected, ignored and abandoned. We are trying to get the message out there so that people will be pragmatic and responsible and won’t get taken in by some impulse.

“Rabbits - particularly the New Zealand white breed - can grow bigger than a Yorkshire Terrier. They start out as cute fluffy bunnies but they grow into reasonably large animals. People may not realise how big their pet will grow.”

Another factor to consider is that many people are allergic to rabbits or rabbit fur - and a rabbit bought for an extended family may suit most members but may leave one sneezing and coughing.

Allergic reactions are the most commonly cited reasons for pet rabbits to be given up, Woodhouse said. “If you are thinking of getting a pet rabbit you need to make sure the whole family is on board,” she said. “In a lot of cases you can’t return the animal to the pet shop.”

Often, the unfortunate result of impulse or ill-advised purchases is an abandoned rabbit. “If they are lucky, owners will bring them to us,” said Woodhouse. “If they are unlucky they will get dumped in the street.

“Quite often they will be abandoned at the management office (of an apartment block). They are taken in their cages or left in a box beside the management office and the office will call us up. Or they are left by a rubbish collection point.

“Sometimes they are let go which is a real issue in terms of welfare not just for rabbits but for dogs and cats and any species in Hong Kong. People think if they let them go, they at least have a chance but most animals don’t survive too well in the wild if they are domesticated pets.

Unfortunately some people still do it.”

Nevertheless, there has been a “very positive improvement” in animal welfare awareness in Hong Kong in the 12 years since the last Year of the Rabbit, according to Woodhouse. “People have become much more aware of what they need to do with an animal,” she said.

“Things can be improved and in Hong Kong we are limited by the infrastructure in terms of parks and housing restrictions. But people generally are more aware that the animals have certain needs in terms of care and exercise and diet and being played with and they are not just a toy you can impulse-buy and discard.”

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24. Foreign capital drives growth
中国日报香港版 2011-01-27 Comment, P09

The debate on how foreign capital and companies should be treated in China is not new. It started with the reform and opening-up process in the late 1970s, and got fiercer in the 1980s and 1990s.

The debate, however, does not perturb Wang Zhile, a research scholar with the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation. He says all foreign companies operating in China are Chinese companies, because their products are made and innovated in China for the benefit of the country as well as the rest of the world.Today, the debate is centered mainly on four disputes, Wang says. The first, whether China should continue introducing foreign capital, was first raised in 2005. Foreign capital has been playing an important role in China’s economic development for the past three decades.

But some experts argue that an economy should invite foreign capital only when it does not have enough foreign exchange or investment funds. They say that China does not need foreign capital for now, because it has foreign exchange reserves of $2.64 trillion, the largest in the world, and enough investment capital.

Wang disagrees with them. He says introducing foreign capital is not a simple process of just capital flow into China. For a developing country like China, which is transforming from planned to market economy, foreign capital can also mean advanced mechanisms that can expedite the transformation.

For instance, had the reform and opening-up not made it possible for foreign companies to operate in China, there would have been no modern corporate management for Chinese companies to emulate and/or improve on to drive the country’s modernization.

China still needs the motivation to change its development pattern to move toward a greener economy and multinationals can act like a catalyst for the country to complete the transition.

The second dispute is over whether international mergers and acquisitions (M&As) involving Chinese companies could threaten China’s economic security. This dispute dates back to the 1960s, when relations between China and the erstwhile Soviet Union soured, creating great problems for the Chinese economy. Some people still use the developments in the 1960s to express fear over international M&As.

What they do not realize is that the end of the Cold War made peace and development the two key words for the world. This, in turn, has made Chinese and multinational (or global) companies the representatives of globalization and advanced productive forces.

The transnationality index, a means used by economists and politicians to evaluate multinationals, in most industries increased from 40 to 60 in the past decade. It shows that almost two-thirds of multinationals’ assets, sales and employees are outside their country of origin. Multinationals or global companies can help take China’s economy closer to the world economy. Hence, the concern over China’s economic security is not justified in the new era, Wang says.

The third dispute is over independent innovation. Many foreign businesses have reportedly complained that the government does not treat them and Chinese companies as equals and that it does not regard foreign companies’ innovations in China as independent innovations.

The government, however, has reiterated that it treats foreign and domestic companies as equals. The Ministry of Science and Technology has clarified that foreign companies’ products are “independent innovations”, and Premier Wen Jiabao has emphasized that all companies registered in China would be treated as Chinese companies. Premier Wen said that just like their products carry “made-in-China” tags, their innovations will be considered to have been “created in China”, and all foreign companies registered in China will get equal national treatment.

Globalization combines intelligence from across the world, Wang says. China has already made huge progress by entering the global industrial chain. The Chinese government should now focus on upgrading its industries and make efforts to climb up the industrial chain, which can be done through more innovations.

The last dispute, whether foreign companies should be treated as Chinese companies, is one that holds the answers to the three other disputes. A company’s nationality can be established by considering its place of registration, initial source of capital, controlling power and sundry other factors. Since multinational or global companies operate in many countries, people usually label them according to the country they were registered in.

But there is no real need to define a multinational according to the place of its registration, because a multinational by definition cannot belong to any one nation.

Take Nokia for instance. People and corporations outside Finland, considered its country of origin, hold more than 80 percent of its shares. Nokia may have started in Finland, but it has used global sources and resources to spread its business across almost every corner of the world to earn its profit and reputation.

The same applies to many other listed companies, which are attracting increasing amounts of capital out of the mainland. For example, 25 percent of China Mobile shares have been issued by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

Recent M&A conflicts and failures should not force an economy to resort to trade protectionism. Multinationals and international M&As will benefit China’s economy and help build a peaceful environment for the country’s economic development. China’s total exports last year hit $1.58 trillion, and a big percentage of that were products made by multinationals.

Introducing foreign capital and encouraging Chinese companies to venture aboard both are important for China’s economic development. Multinationals are engines of economic growth and can help China build the right environment for its peaceful rise.

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25. Chongqing proposes tax reforms
中国日报香港版 2011-01-27 Nation, P04

Rates to be set at a maximum of 3 percent on high-end properties to quell speculation

By WANG HUAZHONGCHINA DAILY

CHONGQING — The mayor of this southwestern city on Tuesday made his thoughts known on the touchy subject of how to best levy a tax on the more expensive sorts of properties. Certain properties, Chongqing Mayor Huang Qifan said on Tuesday, will be divided into 10 categories and be subjected to taxation carrying a rate of up to 3 percent.

The tax proposal came a day after Finance Minister Xie Xuren said the central government is pushing forward with national reforms of real estate taxes.

“(Certain) local properties will be placed into 10 categories, which will be assigned different tax rates,” China Business News on Wednesday quoted Huang as saying at the municipal finance and taxation work conference.

Huang said that he found on his recent trip to Taiwan that his tax proposals were similar to existing policies in Taipei, where high-end properties are placed in nine categories and subjected to various tax rates.

He said Taipei’s tax rate of between 1 percent and 3 percent is “more aggressive than what we will have”, indicating the impending rates for Chongqing, a city with 30 million people, will be lower than 3 percent.

With a 3-percent rate, the owner of a Chongqing property worth 20 million yuan ($3 million) would have to pay 600,000 yuan a year to the government.

Strict property taxation is among the measures the Chongqing government proposed in January in a report to local legislators, calling for a better balance to be struck between supply and demand in the property market.

Trying to explain “why everyone is now speculating in the housing market and stock market”, Huang said the root cause is the absence of a property tax.

“According to the rules of economics, if property taxes were set at about 3 percent (in Chongqing), no one would speculate on houses,” he was quoted as saying.

He said the capital cost of speculating in the housing market, property fees and a 3-percent property tax will bring maintenance costs to about 10 percent of a property’s price — a cost high enough to dampen a speculator’s prospects of getting a return.

But even though no authority has publicly confirmed that the higher taxes will fall on anything but the more expensive types of properties, local residents have become concerned that the proposed rates will ensnare them.

“Everyone is saying that a house larger than 144 square meters or several houses adding up to 200 sq m will be subjected (to the property tax),” said Zhao Fushui, 29, a doctor in Chongqing. He said he is already “stressed out” about the prospect of having to pay taxes on a second house for his parents.

“If the government can levy a tax on expensive houses, they may gradually levy one on other residences as well,” Zhao said. “It’s similar to people who are making more money now finding out that they must pay income taxes.”

Zhao and other locals told China Daily that they think high tax rates could be applied in a fair manner to properties of the superrich, who “own too many houses and use too few of them”.

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26. Fuel reserve project moves into new phase
中国日报香港版 2011-01-27 Business, P13

2010 petroleum stockpiles equal to 36 days of consumption demand

By ZHOU YANCHINA DAILY

BEIJING — China’s strategic petroleum reserve capacity is expected to reach 274 million barrels by 2012.

However, that figure will not be confirmed for nearly two years, at the completion of the second phase of the reserve project for the fuel, according to the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation (CPCIF).

The country’s strategic stockpiling capacity had reached 178 million barrels at the end of last year, while its commercial inventory capacity hit 168 million barrels, the federation said in a report on Wednesday.

The combined reserve capacity was equivalent to about 36 days of domestic consumption demand, according to the report.

China has started construction of the eight sites for the second phase of the strategic reserve project. The first phase was completed in early 2009, with a designed capacity of 164 million cubic meters.

The country is now planning the third phase, scheduled to be completed by 2020, when the total reserve volume will be equivalent to 100 days of imports, according to the mid- and long-term oil reserve plan, approved by the State Council in February 2009.

“China’s crude oil imports rose by 17.4 percent year-on-year to 239 million tons in 2010. The import volume reached $134.94 billion, accounting for 42 percent of the total import volume in the nation’s petrochemical industry,” said Zhu Fang, vice-director of the Information and Marketing Department at the CPCIF.

China, the world’s second-largest oil consumer, saw its consumption rise by 12.9 percent last year from 2009, the biggest jump since 2005. Its apparent oil demand, which is composed of output and imports, but excludes stockpiles, hit 439 million tons in 2010, the report said.

By contrast, the nation only realized 203 million tons in crude oil output last year, up 6.9 percent from a year earlier, leaving a gap that has to be filled by imports.

Overseas oil is expected to have accounted for 55 percent of the nation’s total consumption in 2010, Zhu said. The foreign oil dependency ratio is expected to gradually expand going forward to support the country’s fast economic growth. China’s GDP reached 10.3 percent in 2010.

By the end of 2010, the combined length of all of China’s oil and gas pipelines extended 78,000 kilometers (km), including a 1,000 km-long oil pipeline linking Russia and China that started transporting oil on Jan 1. The pipeline has helped to ease the nation’s heavy reliance on oil imports from the Middle East.

In addition, the federation said that China’s petrochemical sector, which is expected to realize a profit of 690 billion yuan ($104 billion) last year with a 36 percent year-on-year increase, has started to expand again after hitting a low point as a result of the global financial crisis in 2009, Zhu said.

“From this year onwards, the industry will experience a gradual and steady growth trajectory,” he said, adding that several policies, including the finished oil-pricing scheme, will face adjustment in 2011.

The domestic petrochemical industry is expected to realize a profit of 840 billion yuan this year, and domestic crude oil output will rise by 4 percent.

Meanwhile, the processing volume for crude will increase by 7.5 percent from 2010, and domestic apparent oil demand will grow by 6.6 percent, the CPCIF said.

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星岛日报 A
 1. 汽车股起劲踩油追落后 东风广汽华晨可取
星岛日报 2011-01-27 星岛投资王, B12

内地股市反弹,惟港股未能跟贴沪深股市的升势,大市仍维持窄幅上落格局,但个别行业则有不俗表现。资金继续追落后,汽车股昨日成为追捧对象,除比亚迪(1211)以外,汽车股几乎全面造好。基于汽车股表现相对低残,短期应有上升空间,龙头东风汽车(489)、广汽集团(2238)及华晨中国(1114)均可取。

沪综指及深成指昨日分别上升31点及153点,恒指却仅升54点,国企指数则表现较佳,升87点。国指成分股中,以两大汽车股表现最好,龙头东风升幅达4.8%,冠绝三大指数成分股,广汽则升4.21%。另外,长城汽车(2333)表现更为突出,一度升8.5%,高见11.98元,创下新高,收市仍升6.15%。

根据中国汽车工业协会早前公布的数据显示,内地12月份乘用车销量按年上升18.6%,达131万辆,创历年来12月份的新高,惟按月则减少2.3%。全年合计,中国汽车产销量分别为1826.47万辆及1806.19万辆,两者均录得约32.4%的升幅,乘用车的销量更上升33%,达1375.78万辆。

回落幅度甚于大市

财政部统计则指出,截至去年12月底止,「汽车下乡」政策实施22个月以来,全国已累计补贴下乡汽车及摩托车1791.47万辆,兑付补贴资金265.67亿元(人民币,下同);当中,汽车补贴499.69万辆。去年全国补贴下乡汽车及摩托车1208.47万辆,兑付补贴资金为178.87亿元,汽车补贴332.69万辆。

汽车股之前借「汽车下乡」炒上,但随着有关的补贴政策停止,销售难免受影响,因此股价亦显著回落。以去年高位计算,四大汽车股东风、广汽、吉利汽车(175)及华晨现价分别回落24.5%、26.6%、26.9%及30.5%,跌幅显著高于大市。

比亚迪中线宜观望

基于资金追逐落后股份,汽车股短期仍有力上扬。汽车股整体估值合理,东风的2011年预测市盈率仅8.55倍,广汽则为9.99倍,同属相当吸引的水平。华晨预测市盈率虽达17.72倍,惟由于华晨宝马合营生产的汽车档次较高,利润水平较佳,且随着内地居民消费能力上升,前景值得看好,享有较高溢价亦属正常,加上现价从高位回落的幅度亦高于同业,值博率不俗。

相对之下,比亚迪股价仍弱势,昨日低见37.5元的一年新低,收报38元,仍跌2.69%,短线纵或有技术反弹,但中线走势仍有待观察。

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 2. 3G手机平靓正 中国无线望5元
星岛日报 2011-01-27 星岛投资, B10

近期多只r抽水7股在集资后都见股价急跌,且多跌穿配股价,中国无线(2369)便是其中之一,但集团作为内地主要智能手机产销商,近年业务增长迅速’集资更有助巩固财政实力,前景看高一线。

中国无线是一家手机产销商,并以r酷派j品牌销售手机,根据电讯市场研究机构赛诺提供的数据显示,在2010年内地CDMA终端5000万台的总需求量中,酷派已稳居3G手机市场前三甲,并在(;DMA3G手机市场占有率上超越三星成为第一名。

在新一年’中国无线为了进一步扩大市场占有率,将积极推出更多低端3G手机,并加大对A:ndroid平台产品的研发力度,计画推出约20款Android手机c集团最近就伙拍中国电信(728)推出定价399元人民币的低端3G手机,创电信EVDO制武机会的新低。

推低端机拓市占率

据悉,内地多家大型电讯商都欲推出更多低端3C手机,以推动客户从2G升级至3G市场,有助他们赚取更多月费。而对中国无线而言,则可借助这个机会加快拓展市场占有率,因为外国品牌手机如三星及诺基亚的成本较高,在低端市场自然不如中国无线。

高盛早前发表报告就提到中国无线有能力扩大市场占有率,维持给予r买入0评级,目标价6."元,预测今年市盈率只是14倍’。该行预测中国无线今、明两年的纯利可达5.73亿及9.09亿元,股东回报率达51.8%及55%‘

中国无线近年发展的确快速,单是2010ff搜上半』年的盈利已超过09年度全年纯利2.4亿元,今年盈利自然看涨。走势上,在4.3元水平已营造支持,相信短纔有机‘会冲破4.55元配股价阻力,上望5元。

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 3. 中石化「25831」炒波幅
星岛日报 2011-01-27 星岛投资, B09

港股连跌4日后终于止跌,恒生指数午后一度升近200点上试24000点,惟高位遇阻,尾段升幅收窄,全日收报23843点,升54点,成交金额682.13亿元。大市仍然缺乏方向。中石化(386)上升2.28%报8.06元,重上8元之上,为蓝筹中表现最佳的H股,成交亦见增加至8.57亿元,有力试新高,认购证「25831」波幅良好可取。

「25831」于今年5月到期,行使价为8.5元,价外5.46%。实际槓桿为7.55倍,引伸波幅为34%,街货比重为0.26%,溢价11.23%,昨升22.37%,收报0.465元,成交量为1200万股。

中海外现突破吼「22879」

内房股近期呈横行走势,龙头中国海外(688)昨表现强势,升2.11%报15.5元,突破短期阻力,短线仍可看好,认购证「22879」值得留意。「22879」于今年6月到期,行使价为16.88元,价外8.9%。实际槓桿为6.5倍,引伸波幅为40.85%,街货比重为8.96%,溢价15.1%,昨升14.29%,收报0.096元,成交量为2112万股。黄风雷

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 4. 家乐福沃尔玛欺诈遭重罚 标高价格 再减价出售
星岛日报 2011-01-27 中国, A19

国家发改委宣布,大型连锁超市家乐福和沃尔玛在内地的多间分店,涉嫌恶意欺骗消费者,存在「虚构价格」、「不履行价格承诺」等多种欺诈行为。有消费者在埋单时才发现,商品的实际价格比标价高出一倍有多。发改委决定没收超市非法所得并罚款,最高达五十万元人民币。

本报记者

家乐福是法资超市巨头,沃尔玛则是美资企业。涉嫌欺诈消费者的涉及内地十几间家乐福超市和三间沃尔玛,一共有二十多种商品,所在城市包括上海、沈阳、武汉、长沙、重庆和昆明等。发改委表示,超市存在「虚构原价」、「低价招徕顾客高价结算」、「不履行价格承诺」、「误导性价格标示」等欺诈行为。

全场三折起无一打折

例如,长春市家乐福出售的一套内衣,原价为一百一十九元,但标出一百六十九元,再降价至五十点七元出售,制造「大减价」效果。有消费者在上海家乐福购买标价九点九元的衣架,埋单时却被收取二十点五元,较标价高出一倍有多。哈尔滨家乐福促销内衣,打出「全场三折起」的广告,但其实没有任何产品以三折价格出售。发改委表示,将没收违法所得,并处违法所得的五倍罚款;若无法计算,最高将处以五十万元罚款。

频发风波麻烦不断

一向以便宜服务好而著称的家乐福,去年频频爆发风波,麻烦不断,不但与即食面品牌「康师傅」发生断供矛盾,与食用油品牌「福临门」发生口水战,也被揭发十二年没有为员工加薪。凤凰网财经频道近日推出「家乐福中国乱象」专题,发起万人实名签名抵制活动,呼吁民众不要光顾家乐福。

据悉,该网站于本周一起推出专题,列出家乐福种种涉嫌违规的经营行为,当中包括标价不实、断货风潮、员工十二年不加薪,和率先征收通道费等。截至昨日晚上,已经有约一万五千人在网上签名,抵制家乐福。

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 5. 重农行盈利增长胜大行
星岛日报 2011-01-27 星岛投资王, B11

摩根士丹利发表报告表示,重庆农村商业银行(3618)于当地的存款及中小企贷款市场具有优势,市场份额分别为14.6%及16.6%,预测其2009至2012年间的盈利年均复合增长率可达42%,远较四大银行为佳。

大摩指重农行存款、流动性及部分拨备标准,于中型H股同业中亦处于领先位置,预期重农行今年的贷款增长或可达同业平均水平的两倍,首予其投资评级为「增持」,目标价为6.75元。

匹克定单增长理想

瑞信发表报告指出,匹克体育(1968)的定单数据理想,第三季度订货会定单金额录得23.6%的按年增幅,估值吸引,重申其投资评级为「跑赢大市」,目标价为6.4元。

瑞信表示,匹克的业务正按照管理层的计画进行扩张,预计今年将增加800间新店。该行又认为,近日由于行业龙头弱势对匹克的拖累经已完结,其现价的2011年度预测市盈率仅为8.9倍,估值已见吸引,而且于未来3年的年均盈利复合增长率更可达到20.6%。

嘉华上海业务步收成期

花旗发表报告表示,由于对嘉华国际(173)所持有银河娱乐(027)的4.13%股份价值及平均售价预测作出了最新评估,以及缩小了其目标价与资产净值的折让程度,将其目标价从4.76元调升至6.07元,维持贞投资评级为「买入」。

花旗称,嘉华于上海的业务步入收成期,估计于该地的总销售收入为170亿元人民币。该行又将嘉华视作一家被忽略的本地股份,其与信和置业(083)共有3个位于优质地段的合作项目,嘉华于该些项目的持股量分别为15%至35%,而与信置比较,该行认为,嘉华为分享本港市场强劲成果的更佳选择。

花旗又指出,嘉华的市值仅为80亿元,相当被低估,估计未来的项目销售收入及投资回报,将为推动其股价获得重新评级的利好因素。

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 6. 外汇基金投资收入790亿 较09年跌27% 第四季债券录亏损
星岛日报 2011-01-27 星岛财经, B02

外汇基金去年第三季大赚逾七百亿元并收复上半年失地,但第四季表现却后劲不继,主要受累于债券投资亏损,以致该季投资收入仅得五十五亿元,全年投资收入则为七百九十亿元,较○九年减少近两成七。金管局总裁陈德霖表示,今年全球市场仍存很多不明朗及不稳定因素,故投资取态上会继逐步步为营、小心翼翼。

外汇基金首三季的债券投资均有理想表现,第四季才出现亏损一百八十六亿元,陈德霖解释,主要是受到第四季美国十年期债券孳息由原来低于两厘半上升至三厘多的影响。全年计,债券投资仍录得四百二十一亿元收益,为外汇基金投资收入最大贡献部分,所占比重达五成三。

债券收益占53%

股票投资收益合共三百八十六亿元,港股及外国股票组合分别占一百一十六亿元及二百七十亿元,表现远较○九年共九百七十多亿元收益逊色。至于外汇投资则录得亏损三十一亿元,主要受到欧罗汇价波动影响。

去年外汇基金包括EightFinance在内的附属公司进行投资的金额为一百四十七亿元,并带来了十四亿元的其他投资收入,主要来自经有关附属公司投资的私募基金及海外投资物业。金管局副总裁余伟文表示,未来将视乎投资项目的需要,外汇基金可能会再向附属公司注资。

年内,扣除利息和其他支出后,外汇基金的净投资收入为七百四十四亿元;累计盈余增加三百七十九亿元,至逾五千九百亿元;总资产增加一千九百多亿元,至二万三千多亿元。

投资回报率3.6%

外汇基金去年的投资回报率仅百分之三点六,明显低于○九年百分之五点九的回报率。陈德霖指出,外汇基金资产主要分为支持组合和投资组合两部分,前者是用来支持货币基础,由于○八年及○九年期间大量资金流入本港,间接令支持组合扩大,这部分占外汇基金比例亦相应大增,但短期美债孳息低企导致支持组合回报率偏低,结果拖累外汇基金整体回报率。余伟文指,本港未来资金流向将取市场对港元的需要及美国货币环境,但鑑于香港货币环境依然宽松,料支持组合因素持续带来影响。陈德霖表示,在去年金融市场出现动盪情况下,外汇基金仍录得近八百亿元较预期理想的投资收益,故对回报感到满意。展望今年的投资环境,他指,全球市场仍然存在很多不明朗及不稳定因素,虽然短期美国股市在QE2、大企业盈利改善、消费情绪好转等利因素下可能得到支持,但美国的经济基调还未出现根本改善;欧洲债务危机又未明朗化;同时新兴市场正面对资金流入、高通胀和资产市场上升过急的压力,亦在采取调控和紧缩政策。因此,他对今年金融市场前景仍持审慎态度,投资取态会与去年一样,继续步步为营、小心翼翼。

面对美债孳息上升对债券投资的影响,金管局助理总裁朱兆荃称,如将债券投资期限缩短,即相等于增持现金资产,这有助纾缓美债孳息上升带来的负面影响,惟具体策略则不便透露。记者曾秀云林淑仪

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 7. 港天然气供应获保证
星岛日报 2011-01-27 港闻, A13

国家能源局油气司副司长胡卫平表示,由于崖城气田已经进入枯竭期,按目前产能状况,预计今夏香港用电高峰期间,气田产量可能无法满足中电供气需求。中海油因此准备通过大鹏LNG接收站向中电供气,亦考虑减少崖城向内地用户供气量,转向中电供气。

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 8. 保障投资者协会倡改上市例
星岛日报 2011-01-27 星岛财经, B04

近年市场掀起「向下炒」的歪风,上市公司透过大折让供股、合股、以及用高价购入物非所值的资产来欺压小股东。保障投资者协会昨天发表声明,建议修改《上市规则》,限制供股的次数、供股价以及集资额,并会向港交所以及证监会反映上述建议。

保障投资者协会主席吕志华昨天表示,收到约十宗关于上市公司「向下炒」的投诉,部分苦主曾向监管机构投诉,但未获受理。证监会以及港交所昨天均表示,不会评论保障投资者协会提出的意见。

限制供股次数股价

所谓「向下炒」,是指大股东透过上市公司股价而获利。上市公司先配股给一些相熟的投资者,再由投资者大手沽货,推低股价,期间甚至宣布大折让供股,令股价雪上加霜。待股价跌无可跌的时候,再进行大比例合股,例如十合一以至一百合一,让公司股价有持续下跌的空间。等到股价极之低残的时候,才在低位补货。

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 9. 君临天下超阔大窗夕阳映照 木色朴实厅堂
星岛日报 2011-01-27 九龙豪宅, K23,K24

九龙站豪宅单位款式多,令人目不暇给。当中的君临天下位于九龙半岛临海位置,不少单位外享辽阔海景;再加上享有极高楼层,配以原幅落地玻璃大窗设计,使君临天下受到不少买家的爱戴。今次为各位介绍的单位,为君临天下1座高层B室,被业主改则后变成2房2厅加工人套房间隔,当中主人房为套房设计,全屋以大厅一旁的3面玻璃窗为焦点,再加上面向南方维港,营造壮丽辽阔的开扬海景。 大厅为全场焦点之一,业主改则后大厅呈「L」字形,令内笼更见阔落,用户摆放家具亦见灵活;浅啡色木地板配以浅色牆身,延伸一室的空间感,并使一室雪白无瑕;业主在客厅玻璃窗前放置1张白色曲尺形沙发及浅啡色茶桌及小柜,除与大厅木地板色调配合之外,更为住户提供更辽阔的赏景位置。客厅的一旁是由3面偌大玻璃窗户组成,外望可享开扬海景,远眺对望中环、铜锣湾方面,面对平静的维港海面,顿觉心境平和,烦恼尽消。

主卧格调简约

单位现采2房间隔,其中主人房为套房设计,棕色木地板配以白色牆身,与大厅风格互相呼应;家具走简约风格,以1张木制大床作为全房焦点,腾出大量空间;一旁更有玻璃窗户连窗台,面对的仍然是美丽的开扬海景;另一间睡房改为书房间隔,一室方正实用,装潢亦和主人房风格一致,并设有白色书桌及书柜;一旁设有玻璃窗连窗台,住户在工作过后亦可望开扬海景为眼睛充电。而书房及大厅之间的牆身为玻璃牆身设计。

浴室设计时尚

单位共有2个浴室及1个厨房。2个浴室均保养不俗,呈玻璃碗形式的洗手盘分外特别;浴室设有玻璃大镜,以便以用户梳洗;厨房以银白两色为主,地方开扬,可供多人同时享下厨之乐,并设有贮物柜,方便用户收藏杂物,使单位更感整齐。单位另设工人套房,亦簇新整洁。

以上单位为君临天下1座高层B室单位,面积1461方呎,2房2厅加工人套房间隔,其中主人房为套房设计,享开扬海景,业主现以意向价4388万元放售,平均呎价30034元。以该物业同类1461方呎单位而言,目前市价每方呎约26739元。记者:林浩彦摄影:杨柏贤

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10. 和黄势强「26363」可取
星岛日报 2011-01-27 星岛投资, B09

过去一周窝轮交投转静,牛熊证成交额变化不大,平均每日成交额分别约148亿元和63亿元。观察期内恒指牛熊证的资金流向,约1.11亿元资金净流入恒指牛证;而熊证则录得约7,800万元净流出金额,反映大市失守24,000点心理关口后,资金利用牛证部署反弹。

近期股份窝轮资金流转静,期内滙丰(005)、和黄(013)及港交所(388)等相关认购证分别录得约5,900万元、1,070万元和2,270万元资金净流出,反映投资者趁正股股价表现偏强时减持套现获利;而走势较疲弱的中移动(941)和国寿(2628)则获投资者垂青,相关认购证分别录得1.26亿元和1,270万元资金净流入。

现时市场上成交较活跃的和黄认购证,行使价介乎99元至105元之间,普遍于5月到期,提供约6倍至7倍实际槓桿。滙丰认购证方面,成交额则集中在行使价约94元附近的中长期价外轮,普遍提供约12倍实际槓桿。

和黄股价表现偏强,连日来沿着10天线逆市向上,短线料再次挑战月中高位96元附近,后市可望继续维持其优于大市的表现。如看好和黄,可留意中长期价外认购证「26363」,行使价103.9元,今年5月尾到期,提供7.3倍实际槓桿,引伸波幅约38.1%;也可留意中长期贴价认购证「28130」,行使价98.88元,今年6月初到期,提供6.6倍实际槓桿,引伸波幅约38.2%。

滙丰股价近日反覆回落,逐步回补早前的上升裂口,短线料反覆穿梭于10天平均线,在85元附近寻找支持。如看好滙丰,可留意中长期贴价认购证「27995」,行使价88.88元,今年6月中到期,提供9.3倍实际槓桿,引伸波幅约26.5%。法兴证券衍生工具部

结构性产品价格可升可跌,投资者有机会损失全部投资。过往表现并不预示未来表现。牛熊证设有强制性收回特点,若相关资产价格在到期前触及收回价,牛熊证会即时被强制性收回。

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11. 招商局涨3%稳坐强势蓝筹
星岛日报 2011-01-27 星岛投资, B10

港股连跌四日后反弹,招商局国际(144)领涨大市,劲扬3。15%,稳坐强势蓝筹榜首。瑞银预期招商局市场份额将会提升,加上内地港口收费仍较同业折让’料未来三年吞吐量复合年增长率约100k,,并对招商局港口资产持正面态度,重申r买入7评级及行业首选股’目标价由37.3元升至40元’

中信泰富(267)旗下大冶特钢前日发盈喜,刺激股价续扬3.12%’位列强势蓝筹亚军。此外,麦格裹预测铁矿砂价格将提升,故调高中信泰富目标价至31元。

国泰(293)遭欧盟指.控于2004至2006年间违反欧洲竞争法,被罚巨款,尽管公司已向欧盟普通法院提出上诉,但股价仍应声插水2.36%,变最弱蓝筹。

国指方面,汽车股包揽成分股首尾位’龙头东风集团(489)续涨4.8%,蝉联国企股王宝座;比亚迪(1211)则倒跌2。69%’沦为最弱国企股。

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12. 漾日居色彩分间层次大宅 俯瞰内园景致
星岛日报 2011-01-27 九龙豪宅, K25,K26

位于九龙站的漾日居,处于繁华的都市地段,交通颇为便利。今次为各位介绍的是漾日居2座高层C室,单位采3房2厅加工人套房间隔,当中主人房为套房间隔。业主在布置方面善用大量鲜艳的色调,以不同的彩色把单位分割成每个角落,令3厅2房均呈现独立的风格。

单位大厅呈长方形,地方宽敞,空间十足;浅色地板配合纯白色牆身,一室时尚更添光亮;家具精致簇新,选材简约而且配合一室格调,业主在客厅只放置了1张白色沙发,及入牆的平面电视机;而牆身则以啡色为主,与地板及沙发构成强烈的层次感;假天花与牆身之间设有光管,给人一种简单而舒适的感觉。客厅的一端连接着一面偌大玻璃窗户,从室内更可外望内园景。窗外一片青嫩翠绿内园,景致开扬,令人心旷神怡。

至于饭厅则混合鲜艳与沉实的风格,1张棕色方形玻璃餐桌,再加上6张黑色餐椅,配合天花板的水晶吊灯,构成饭厅的焦点所在;餐桌左面牆身以翠绿色为主,右面牆身则为黑色,2面牆身设计的不同构成层次感。

雅致花纹牆身

单位采3房间隔,其中主人房为套房设计。主人套房方正宽敞,以带有花纹的牆身为主;一室放有大床后仍有余裕,设计以细腻温柔为主轴,一旁亦设有偌大玻璃窗台,房内采光度十足;另一间睡房则选用黑色为主色调,同样承接了全屋的装潢风格,宽敞开扬,而床及书桌为浅啡色,与牆身构成层次感;第3间房则以衣帽间设计,2面放有深棕色的衣柜,中间则以鲜红色为主色调。

至于浴室及厨房均整齐簇新。各浴室以浅色为主调,铺上云石地砖及牆身,明亮而高贵,而且设有玻璃大镜供住户梳洗;厨房则以黑色云石地砖配以白色牆身,整洁而设备齐全,而且设有多个吊柜方便住户收藏杂物。

以上为漾日居2座高层C室放盘单位,面积1168方呎,采3房2厅另加工人套房间隔,其中主人房为套房设计,外望内园景,现时业主以1500万元放售,平均呎价12842元;另亦以36000元放租,平均呎租30.8元。以该物业同类1168方呎的单位而言,目前市价每方呎约11130元。记者:林浩彦摄影:陈章存

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13. 君滙港趟门露台市海双景 水晶吊灯显优雅
星岛日报 2011-01-27 九龙豪宅, K35,K36

位于奥运站附近的君滙港,共设有5幢住宅大厦,毗邻地铁奥运站及多个大型购物商场,大型会所和宴会厅,因此获不少用家欢迎。是次向大家介绍的是君滙港2座高层C室,单位间隔为3房2厅加工人套房,其中主人房为套房设计,单位一室由地板、牆身至家具均以浅啡色为主,一室色调统一而营造温馨的生活空间。

大厅呈长方形间隔,住户能灵活摆放家具;浅啡色木地板配以白色及橙啡色牆身,除营造层次感外,更使一室开扬广阔。客厅一端放置1张啡色的特色沙发,与大厅地板融为一体。另一端设有黑色电视柜,营造出华丽的感觉。客厅一旁设有玻璃趟门连接宽敞露台,从外引入充足的阳光及清新空气,从露台外望可享开扬市、海双景,从高层俯瞰奥运站市景,阵阵凉风吹来,顿觉心情舒畅。

全屋格调统一

而大厅一旁便是饭厅位置,饭厅空间宽敞,地方阔落,可以容纳多人共同进食,浅啡色的木制方形餐桌配以同一系列的椅子,显出统一感。另外在天花板悬挂1盏金黄色的水晶吊灯,使饭厅更为夺目,整个大厅洋溢着辉煌风格。整个单位为3房间隔,其中主人房间为套房间隔,另加工人套房。而主人套房间隔方正实用,设计以浅色为主轴,家具亦以简约为主,营造出优雅感觉。大床旁有玻璃窗户,令房间采光度更为充足,从主人房外望可享开扬市景。而另外1间房间的设计相近,地方同样见使实用,以浅色调为主。至于最后1间房间的设有床头柜放置小摆设。

至于厨房设计时尚,以银白两色为主调,厨具均由欧洲入口,并铺上灰色地板;而浴室保养簇新,以浅色云石为主,走暖色调路线,内笼簇新,一室乾爽。

以上单位为君滙港2座高层C室单位,面积1166方呎,3房2厅加工人套房间隔,其中主人房为套房设计,屋内装潢簇新,外望开扬市、海双景,现业主以意向价1500万元放售,平均呎价12864元。以该物业同类1166方呎单位而言,目前市价每方呎约11344元。记者:林浩彦摄影:陈尧华

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14. 投资内银债市 去年额度150亿
星岛日报 2011-01-27 星岛财经, B02

人行去年已批准金管局投资内地银行间债市,但额度一直未见透露。金管局总裁陈德霖表示,去年人行批准金管局参与内地多家银行债市的额度为一百五十亿元人民币。他指投资细节仍与人行倾谈中,希望不久将来可投资。陈德霖又表示,现时已开展了几种类别的投资,包括新兴巿场的股票和债券、私募基金以及海外的投资物业等。

多元投资楼股债基金

金管局副总裁余伟文补充指,获批投资内地债市的额度属一次性,将会以港元与人行兑换人民币资金,并指属长线投资非为短期炒卖。

投资在人民币资产市场方面,陈德霖表示已取得很多的进展,去年十月获得中国证监会批准为合资格海外机构投资者(QFII),可以投资内地交易所上市的股票和债券。他指现等待外汇管通知额度等细节,同时强调外汇基金参与人民币业务属起步阶段,会按部就班。余伟文补充指,由于投资具市场敏感性,因此不便透露配置细节安排。

陈德霖说:「在不影响外汇基金有足够流动资金去维持货币和金融稳定下,金管局过去几年都逐步将少量资金投放在更多元化的资产类别,目的是分散风险及在中、长线提高回报率。金管局在资产多元化方面的工作是按部就班地进行。」

余伟文补充,投资私募基金及海外物业以作收租,主要因为有关资产与其他项目相连性不高,有助外汇基金分散风险,同时强调物业与香港无关。

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15. 信用卡办年货悭足20% 赚尽农历年优惠
星岛日报 2011-01-27 财富管理, B05

农历新年将至,巿民忙于办年货,加上今年通胀严重,开支实在叫人「肉赤」。如果想悭钱,用信用卡办年货是理想方法之一,同一件货品往往较用现金购买便宜二至三成;同时,各大发卡机构亦对应新年,推出不同的信用卡消费优惠。虽然优惠种类繁多,但只要识拣,不难找到「平、靓、正」的年货。记者洪伟顺

中国人过年,花费在饮食方面的开支比例最多,而贺年糕点又是当中必备的。由即日起至今年1月30日,凭滙丰信用卡选购美心食品享有七折优惠;同时,推广期内的星期五、六及日购买更有额外的九五折。例如美心腊味礼馔礼券原价408元,优惠价244元;翠园瑶柱萝卜糕原价166元,优惠价116.2元。

指定日子享额外优惠

用中银信用卡买鸿星贺年糕点则可低至六折,其聚宝贺年礼盒原价524元,优惠价393元;原只南非鲍鱼萝卜糕原价298元,优惠价223元。推广期至今年2月2日。

过年节目一定少不了食团年饭或春茗,外出用餐可以考虑用中银信用卡惠顾美心集团大部分旗下酒楼的「团年春茗」,可享有低至八折,约3288元起;另外,每席还可以获赠美心粤菜外省菜300元饮食礼券或美心乳猪券一张,推广期至今年3月4日。

近年流行食盆菜当,用花旗信用卡购买大家乐盆菜就享有优惠,推广期至今年2月20日,例如其丰盛之选鲍鱼瑶柱福袋原价598元,优惠价568元。

选购的年货中,部分可用来送礼。用创兴信用卡购买GrandFloral&GiftShop指定礼品篮、兰花及鲜花,可享低至七八折优惠。例如「年年有余」礼品篮原价650元,优惠价520元;「富贵荣华」兰花原价1280元,优惠价1028元。推广期由即日起至今年2月20日止。

燕窝海味亦是传统送礼佳品。用恒生信用卡于官燕栈购买精选燕窝海味,可享低至三一折。龙牙官燕机原价每両1225元,优惠价每両919元;飬生荟澳洲一头鲍加一斤原木花菇,原价每套648元,优惠价298元。中银信用卡可以以低至六折于安记海味购买贺年海味。

日本北海道珍宝鲜元贝(每盒2.2磅装)原价300元,价惠价198元;澳洲鲍鱼锦盒原价368元,优惠价288元。

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16. 赴英读牙医找实习恐不易
星岛日报 2011-01-27 升学径, F04

简答两位读友问及海外升学的问题。

覆区太:女儿在英国修A-level,AS有3科分别取得ABC成绩,中文A、IELTS7分,现获得伦大RoyalHolloway、Nottingham及Durham有条件取录,条件为A2取得ABB,而伦大QueenMary的有条件取录为A2取得BBB。

修商业学,倘A2只考得BBB,没有选择,只能入读伦大QueenMary;倘有ABB或以上,应先选Nottingham,至于Durham及RoyalHolloway相若,综合名气论,则以Durham较佳。

覆田读者:英国提供牙医学的大学数目不多,只有十余所,所以,相互比较分别不大。现获Dundee无条件取录,当然可喜可贺;另又接获Sheffield通知面试,虽然长途跋涉,但亦应一试,因为Sheffield比Dundee的名气好一点之外,在英格兰读书亦似乎较适合香港学生。

至于Sheffield对海外生修毕牙科的提示是正常,因为在移民条例变动下,海外生修毕牙科后,有可能未必轻易在英国找到实习或专业的训练计画,因为要预留给英国本土生及欧盟学生;虽然Dundee没有这个提示,但不代表容易找到实习,而是他们不提示也没错。电邮:losee01@yahoo.com.hk

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17. 北京治堵 万八车牌摇号产生
星岛日报 2011-01-27 中国, A19

北京为治理交通拥堵向车市开刀,昨天首次「摇号」产生购车指标。当天超过十八万名申请购车者中,只有一万七千六百名「抽中」,中签率低于一成。

昨天上午,北京市交通委员会办公大厅出现了一个玻璃摇号箱。在公证人员见证下,北京车市限购令下的首批配额出炉。新华社报道,交通拥堵已成首都一大「心病」,而通过「摇号」限制购车指标成为治堵的措施之一。去年底,北京的机动车已超过四百八十万辆,提前逼近二○二○年的城市规划。

中签比率仅仅十分一

「以后还要摇号,机会有的是。摇号很公平,我支持摇号,也支持政府限制机动车总量,因为北京确实太堵了。」没有中签的王先生表示并不会气馁。首批抽签购车者有超过十八万人,而抽中者的比例只有一比十点六。

上月底,北京推出交通治堵新政,决定今后汽车牌照通过摇号抽签分配,及外地车辆在尖峰时段禁入中心区路段。新政还继续对机动车实施「单双号」限行措施,并将进一步提高市内停车收费标准,及加强地铁等公交建设。

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18. 新地沪国金中心夺两奖
星岛日报 2011-01-27 星岛财经, B04

国金中心是香港知名的金融中心地标,而同样由新鸿基地产(016)发展的上海国金中心,最近于第二届「第一财经第一地产品质奖」评选中,勇夺「最佳商业价值金奖」及「最佳商业地标奖」两项重量级殊荣。

上海国金中心项目总监李铁燊话,该中心是新地内地的旗舰物业,也是首个内地ifc力作,在各方面均竭力打造最一流的国际金融地标。物业位于浦东小陆家嘴最核心地段,商场LG2直驳地铁2号线陆家嘴站,往西连接虹桥机场,往东通过磁悬浮连接浦东国际机场,并与规划中的轨道交通十四号线陆家嘴站换乘,又有成一千八百个车位。这些设计,看来有十成九与香港的国金相似,获奖也是意料之中了。

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19. 泓淋唞顺再展升浪 高端消费电子行业前景俏
星岛日报 2011-01-27 星岛投资王, B11

上证指数昨日回升1.1%,带动港股一度反弹至24000点关口,恒指最终收报23843点,微升54点,港股成交只有681亿元,与上证相若,牛皮待变之势未改。

招商局国际(144)升3.1%,成为领涨蓝筹股,其余资源、黄金、水泥、金属、汽车及本地地产股普遍回升。德银看好股王腾讯(700),目标价上调至240元,昨升1.8%,收202.8元。早前个别当炒股急跌,波司登(3998)跌8.2%,六福(590)跌5.3%,海东青新材料(2228)跌6%。

消息指,内地大型银行当月信贷额度已全部投放完毕,总行已下命令,本月各分支行放贷不得超出当月信贷额度。银行贷款利率出现普遍上浮,在基准利率基础上加10%至45%不等,农历年前信贷仍然紧张。

大市个别发展,选出强势股非常重要,腾讯今年至今已累升20%,跑赢大市,但半新股泓淋科技(1087)表现更佳,一度累升36%,近日调整后,仍升23%,确是强势股,可考虑趁回储入。

泓淋为全球高端消费电子行业提供全面线缆组件,以及连接器相关产品的「一站式」供应商,在外接信号线组件、手提电脑内接信号线组件、电源线组件及信号传输线缆产品方面,拥有领先的市场份额。其产品主要用于个人及手提电脑、LCD及LED电视,手机及数码相机,并于去年开始生产用于手提电脑。

主要客户包括:三星、LG、伊士曼柯达、安费诺、海尔、海信、广达、仁宝、佳世达、冠捷科技、纬创、新奇美光电等。按2009年及2010年上半年收益计算,集团为全球第二大外接信号线组件制造商,市场份额分别为20.8%及21.8%。

光伏连接器料带动盈利

截至07年、08年及09年12月底止年度及2010年6月止上半年度,集团收益分别为6.53亿元(人民币,下同)、8.98亿元、8.72亿元及6.36亿元。同期盈利为6270万元、5440万元、8830万元及6970万元。招股书预测2010年全年溢利将不少于1.5亿元,每股盈利约0.21元。

泓淋一直与几个光伏连接器、汽车线束及通讯线缆的大生产商进行接洽,传近期有机会取得实质性进展。集团正迅速提升现有高端消费电子行业领先地位,同时将进入汽车、新能源领域及通讯市场,其中光伏连接器有望短期内带来理想收益。现价预计市盈率约12倍不贵,可趁调整储入。

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20. 创科增配件业务比重
星岛日报 2011-01-27 星岛财经, B03

创科实业(669)执行董事陈志聪表示,由于电动产品配件较整机毛利率高十至二十个百分点,故未来将增加生产电动产品配件,预计未来两年收入占比由目前的百分之八升至一成二至一成五;目前普通产品毛利率介乎三成至三成二。他又指,公司于过去三年全部达到新产品占总收入三分一的目标,有信心今年会高过三分一。

陈志聪表示,公司目前人工占总生产成本低于一成,故内地人工上升对公司影响较微。他又指,公司早前重组生产线令员工数量减少两成至九千名,目前无计画再减人手,但仍需视乎定单情况。他表示,公司最低工资已由去年每月九百元人民币上升至一千一百元人民币,而未来三个月定单情况则较为乐观。陈志聪又指,原材料占公司总生产成本六至七成,但公司与原材料供应商有良好关系,相信可减少原材料价格上升压力。另外,由于公司成本支出主要以美元及港元计价,人民币升值对公司影响亦较小。

借高端产品扩内地市场

对于公司去年新进入的中南美洲市场,陈志聪表示,目前该市场收入未达五千万美元,但看好该市场发展前景,相信两年可倍增。他续指,由于国内产品销售毛利率较国外低,故公司于国内市场份额较小,但公司会慢慢扩大内地市场,主要引入高端产品。

陈志聪指,目前公司七成至七成五产品于国内生产,其他则于美国、德国等国家以机械生产为主。记者蔡晋东莞报道

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21. 澳洲美酒佳餚之旅
星岛日报 2011-01-27 优游派, E02

随着愈来愈多人爱饮葡萄酒,市场也愈趋成熟,东瀛游特别邀来香港葡萄酒评审协会创会主席邝英志(PeterKwong),亲自率团到澳洲作一趟集旅游与学习于一身的品美酒享佳餚之旅。

团队将于3月19日出发,前往澳洲维多利亚省及南澳四大酒区品酒,八日六晚行程中,会走遍亚拉河谷(YarraValley)、巴罗莎(Barossa)、库纳瓦拉(Coonawarra)及麦拿伦谷(McLarenVale)这四大酒区内的十四家驰名酒庄,当中更包括DomaineChandon、Penfolds及Jacob'sCreek等著名庄园,途上除有Peter跟大家介绍各个葡萄庄园的过人之处及畅谈品酒心得,更会在多家酒庄的餐厅品尝美酒佳餚,也会尝到丰富中菜及地道海鲜餐,兼会乘热气球观光及畅游野生动物园。全程选乘澳航往返,经济客位32,999港元,商务客位52,999港元。

查询:36920888

文:KL

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22. 南韩经济增长八年最快
星岛日报 2011-01-27 国际金融, B06

南韩上季经济增长步伐放慢,由于企业投资活动及个人消费明显放缓,不过出口持续强劲;该国去年全年经济仍录得八年来最快的百分之六点一增长步伐。

全年经济增长6.1%

南韩央行昨日公布,去年第四季国内生产总值(GDP)按季升百分之零点五,与前季的百分之零点七增长比较呈放缓,但仍胜过经济师预测的百分之零点四增幅;上季GDP的按年增幅为百分之四点八。

该国上季的企业投资按季收缩百分之一点六,建筑开支亦按季跌百分之四点五;但占当地经济产值逾半的出口,上季升百分之二点四,个人消费亦升百分之零点三。

尽管上季经济增长放缓,去年全年的经济增长幅度达百分之六点一,为过去八年来录得的最大升幅。当地政府在金融海啸发生后增加开支,配合央行奉行低息政策,推动经济走出谷底。央行行长金仲秀周二曾称,鉴于美国经济持续复甦,或会在四月发表的经济前瞻报告上调今年的经济增长预测。

预期最快三月再加息

经济师预测,随着个人消费及出口持续改善,今年百分之四点五的增长目标不难达到。

此外,南韩央行此前的发表一月通胀报告显示,未来一年的通胀预期升幅达百分之三点七,较上月调查高零点四个百分点,市场普遍预期央行最快会于三月再次加息。

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23. 08金融海啸 储局华府捱轰 格老无视泡沫 伯老后知后觉
星岛日报 2011-01-27 国际金融, B06

美国政府委托的金融危机调查委员会作出结论,认为○八年的金融海啸是「可避免的」灾难,炮轰联储局和其他监管官员疏于监管,并指储局前主席格林斯潘对楼市泡沫坐视不理,现任主席伯南克则未有及时察觉危机,并指责前总统布殊政府「不一致」的救市方针。

《纽约时报》引述金融危机调查委员会的报告报道,○八年影响全球金融市场的金融海啸,是出于政府监管疏忽、公司管治不当,以及华尔街罔顾风险造成,原先是可以避免的。

救贝尔斯登弃雷曼有矛盾

调查委员会在长达五百七十六页的报告中,广泛指责布殊和克林顿两任政府、联储局的两位主席格林斯潘和伯南克,以及其他监管官员,容许种种严重错误发生,包括氾滥的按揭借款、坐视市场重新包装销售的按揭债,同时无视按揭抵押证券的实际风险。大部分委员在报告中指责,前储局主席格林斯潘在任时主张放宽监管,孕育楼市泡沫和未及时堵住有毒按揭债氾滥,是政府失职的典型代表;而现任储局主席伯南克,则未察觉金融危机的来临。

报告亦指责布殊政府对应危机的方针前后矛盾,如○八年三月出手挽救贝尔斯登银行,但在同年九月却容许投行雷曼兄弟倒闭,令市场增添不明朗和恐慌情绪。

责布殊政府应对失据

前总统克林顿亦未能幸免,被指在任期最后一年的二千年,决定豁免管制场外金融衍生产品的政策,是美国「迈向金融危机的关键转捩点」。

另一方面,报告否定此前提出导致金融危机的理论,指在美国○一年衰退后,储局维持低利率政策、两大按揭融资机构房利美和房贷美,以及政府订立的积极置业目标,并非金融海啸的罪魁祸首。

金融危机调查委员会于○九年五月设立,并举行了十九天听证,共访问超过七百人,但内部意见分歧,十名委员中,只有由民主党任命的六人认可最后的报告。

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24. 美续买债刺激经济 杜指中段升32点
星岛日报 2011-01-27 要闻, A03

联储局的公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议结束后宣布,维持超低息口在零至零点二五厘,同时一致支持完成QE2,继续六千亿美元购买政府债券,以刺激经济复甦,直至今年第二季结束。

超低息维持不变

联储局的声明指,美国经济虽然持续复甦,步伐依然缓慢,未能为就业市场带来重要的改善。不过,近期消费开始好转,但仍受高失业率困扰,因此仍需要继续量化宽松计画来支持经济,惟必须避免刺激通胀。

美股周三早段造好,杜指数自两年半以来首次冲破一万二千点关口。美国股市杜琼斯工业平均指数中段报一二○○九点,升三十二点;纳斯达克指数曾见二七四二点,升二十三点。

滙控在美见85.96港元

滙控美国预托证券价格中段报八十五点九六港元,比香港收市价跌零点○四港元;而中移动美国预托证券价中段见七十六点三一港元,比香港收市价升零点○一港元。

美国上月的新屋销售为三十二万九千年率单位,增加一成八,为九二年以来最劲的百分比升幅,主要受西部地区录得七成二纪录升幅带动。数字多于市场此前预测的三十万个,美国财政部昨日公布,出售最后四亿六千五百一十万份花旗普通股认股权证,为库房带来三亿一千二百二十亿美元的进帐。整体而言,纳税人在此次拯救花旗中,获利达一百二十三亿美元。

金价连跌五日

波音飞机公司公布,第四季纯利按年下跌百分之八点二,至十一亿六千万美元。同期营业额按季下跌近百分之八其中,上季商用航机付运按季减少一成一;国防同期收入下滑百分之五,至三十六亿三千万美元。

黄金每盎司价格步入第五日下跌,低位曾见一三二六点四八美元,隔日跌百分之零点四四;纽约三月期油价格连跌两日后回稳,一度攀上每桶八十六点九九美元,升百分之零点九三。

美元持续走软

美元昨日兑主要货币持续走软,美汇指数在美市早段跌不到百分之零点一,见七十七点九六四,此前曾见七十七点七四八,是逾两个月低位。欧罗兑美元曾升百分之零点三,高见一点三七二二美元(兑十点六七五七港元)的两个月新高;美元亦曾跌见八十一点八五日圆的半个月低位。

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25. 市场快讯
星岛日报 2011-01-27 星岛财经, B03

中国数码版权(8175)落实收购中国最大的职业体育版权媒体CSM两成半股权,作价三百八十万美元,收购相等于预期市盈率七点六倍;作价二百万美元以现金支付,余额以每股零点五四元发新股支付。

日本最大社交网站Gree表示,同意与腾讯(700)组成企业联盟,协助后者建立流动电话社交游戏平台。

置富产业信托(778)至去年底流动资产五点七亿元,主席赵国雄表示,未来将在南中国及澳门物色回报率达六厘的商场物业,规模或可达数十亿元,因为资产负债比率低至二成一,仍有三十亿元的借贷空间用作收购。

中金首席经济学家彭文生表示,未来五年中国经济增速将放缓至百分之九,今年预计为百分之九点五。而第一季通胀或冲高,一月CPI料升至百分之五点五,相信央行新年前后会加息二十五个点子,并于第二季再加息。

东方海外(316)公布去年第四季度货运量上升百分之十八点九,总收入增加百分之四十一点九,至十五亿一千八百六十万美元。全年计总收入为五十六点一亿美元,增四成六。

佳兆业(1638)以五点一五亿元人民币取得分别位于东莞及江阴市的相连住宅地,为公司增添逾六十六点七平方米楼面土储。

中国油气(702)公布,位于鄂尔多斯盆地三交区块的探矿权证,已国土资源部批准延期,管理层有信心今年投产,并在未来三年将之建成年产煤层气十亿立方米的大型气田。

真明丽(1868)以一点三亿港元购入美国LED公司HCI,以现金及配发新股支偿付,新股占扩大后股本百分之二点六七。

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26. 澳博系股价波动 一天蒸发40亿
星岛日报 2011-01-27 要闻, A04

何鸿燊上市公司澳博股份出现变动后,再发生分产风波,令澳博股价波动,赌王旗下公司昨日一天市值蒸发四十亿元。身为澳博执行董事的四太梁安琪,昨日急急补镬,认为事件只是家庭纠纷,会交由律师处理,并对股价波动感到遗憾。

澳博执行董事梁安琪称,事件只是家庭纠纷,会交由律师处理,对公司复牌后股价出现波动感到遗憾,同时亦为投资者及股民受错误讯息影响,对公司没信心而感遗憾,公司会秉承何生精神继续做好。

梁续称,目前所做的工作是要令公司股价上升,向股东及大股东交代。她会听取投资者意见,认为所有买澳博的人士,都关心公司发展,要向他们交代。

四太:只是家庭纠纷

市场担心何家分产影响何鸿燊赌业王国运作,何氏家族旗舰澳博控股,昨下跌近百分之五,收市报十三元一角二仙,下跌六角八仙。新濠国际跌超过百分之二,收市报五元五角二仙,跌一角四仙。信德收市报四元九角八仙,升三仙。以昨天收市价推算,赌王旗下公司市值,单日蒸发近四十亿元。

摩根大通研究报告指出,事件对澳博影响有限,以股东利益考虑,由澳博现有管理层继续营运是最佳做法,但即使管理层有变,在最坏情况下,澳博每股仍然值十一元三角,较昨天收市价低一成四。

里昂证券研究报告则认为,即使控股权有变,预计也不会影响澳博日常营运,因此仍然建议买入澳博股份,目标价为十八元四角。如果争产事件令股价下跌,反而是吸纳机会。花旗集团意见亦类似,认为纠纷即将告一段落,澳博经营状况理想,并没受事件影响,维持买入评级,目标价为十六元五角。本报记者

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27. Tablet PC平价抢客
星岛日报 2011-01-27 电气廊, E05

由死气沉沉到变成市场新宠,TabletPC于去年可谓绝地反击,一跃成为许多电脑用家另一工作与享乐平台。现时Tablet平板电脑的形势,大体上跟智能手机相似,皆是由「双A」组合Apple与Android分庭抗礼,除了iPad持续热卖之外,GalaxyTab、Archos系列等挑战者亦状态大勇,价钱更愈见抵玩。文、图:XavierTsang

iPad长卖长有

作为掀起平板电脑热潮的催化剂,iPad自推出至今一直长卖长有,尽管近日接连传出关于iPad第二代的消息,仍然无损此机销情。由于现时各大商铺供货隐定,故售价已经回落至正常水位,不像iPhone4那样屡创新高。几款型号中,最好卖是16GBWiFi版本(售价$3,888),其次为16GB3G版本(售价$4,888),似乎不少人认为16GB容量已经相当够用。

GalaxyTab高位回落

继iPad之后,另一部瞩目新机要数到SamsungGalaxyTab,此机预载2.2版本Android作业系统,配备1,024畛600解像度7吋荧幕,采前后双镜头及轻薄机身设计,加上支援3G

手机通话,配合免提耳机即可充当手机使用。由于性能强大,此机甫推出已经成功上位,而经历一轮抢购潮后,近期售价似有回落趋势,有先达商铺行货最新报价$4,688。

Archos70入门首选

价格平易近人的经济款式向来备受欢迎,走平价路线的Archos70及Archos101,正好满足预算不多的用家需求。Archos70分别提供8GBFlash记忆体版本(售价$2,180)以及250GB硬碟版本(售价$2,780),销情同样不俗,尤其250GB版本特别抢手,皆因够大件夹抵食。同厂另一款走轻巧路线的小型Tablet新机Archos43(售价$1,780),瞩目程度亦不相伯仲。

平板新势力

除了以上型号,市面上其实还有不少设计出众的平板电脑,例如同样主打AndroidTablet连手机功能的7吋新机ViewSonicViewPad7,就以不到四千元的低价攻占市场。而机身更小巧,但功能同样强劲的5吋Android平板手机DellStreak5,虽然官方网站已经停售,但在旺角多家电器连锁店仍可找到现货,有兴趣的朋友要留意。而在「双A」以外,Windows7阵营亦不容忽视,台厂MSI最近便推出了WindPad100W,是现阶段少有的Windows7平板新机。

查询:a.Apple/800908988b.GWorld/23966380c.MasterOA/27108818d.丰泽/25555788e.汉科/36269899f.ViewSonic/36901398

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28. 荟萃苑大厅壁炉暖意盎然 露台坐享开扬景
星岛日报 2011-01-27 本周豪宅, K02,K03

位处西半山的荟萃苑,属单幢物业,提供45个单位。是次介绍的中层A室,单位装修连沙发家具均以白色作基调,并于这有如超大型画布般的室内空间增添瑰丽不凡的地毯,配合经典的英式木家具、壁炉及遍布室内各处牆壁的挂画,营造充满品味的艺术居所。

曲尺形大厅布置讲究,铺浅色木地板,配衬白色沙发及洁白牆身,整体光洁亮丽。客厅中央铺上双色地毯,上置白色小茶几,而3张同色系沙发分别摆设于两边;另牆身设置壁炉及平面电视机,配以多幅挂画作装饰,显得一室雅致。

红地毯衬木家具

客厅旁便是偏厅,此处设有落地玻璃门连接露台,平时可打开玻璃门并放下白色轻纱,既可增加通风,同时保持私隐度。室内配置多张红色地毯,配衬同色系沙发,为室内带来一股典雅之风。

至于饭厅则与偏厅相连,该处配备8人长形深色餐桌,旁边摆放了英式木柜,展示出精美餐具,带来温暖家居气氛。

单位共设3房连套房,其中主人套房布局讲究,采用简约清新的布置概念,浅色花纹床铺配衬深色地毯,凸显色调对比。旁边牆身设有宽阔窗户,窗台可摆放装饰品,睡房的另一边特别设计成梳妆枱,方便女主人生活所需。

套3房简约清新

至于主人套浴,牆壁装有大片玻璃,令采光大增。其他睡房同样配置了阔大窗户连窗台,室内配以白色窗纱、床铺及小型挂画,尽显清雅。

上述荟萃苑中层A室放盘,面积2316方呎,3房2厅间隔,其中主人房为套房设计,单位外望市、山及部分海景,现时业主意向叫价3150万元连1个车位放售,平均呎价13601元。以该屋苑同类2316方呎单位而言,目前市价每方呎约13000元。

记者︰周浩全摄影︰伍炳辉

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29. 城市花园落地大窗观赏海景 宽阔厅间隔方正
星岛日报 2011-01-27 香港豪宅, K13,K14

位处北角的城市花园,临海而建,部分单位可同时享有优美维港景及宁静内园景。以下向大家介绍的单位为7座极高层A室,室内间隔方正,外望开扬全海景,而装修则以浅色为主,令家居感觉轻松。此外,室内布置有室内植物及鱼缸,令单位生趣盎然。

刚踏进屋内,可见大厅间隔方正,摆放家具十分方便。大厅分为2个区域,客厅设有宽阔大窗,外望开扬全海景,大窗旁为电视组合柜,两边栽有室内植物,为室内带来点缀。

客厅宽阔通爽

与电视柜相对的为2张黑色皮沙发,中央空间亦设有小茶几;沙发后面设有上下配套储物饰柜,中央空间则巧妙地放置了长形鱼缸,令单位生趣盎然。大厅的另一面便为饭厅,该处设有正方形餐桌,方便用餐所需;旁边设有电脑桌及书柜,方便学习工作。

单位属3房连1套房设计,当中主人套房以长方形设计,室内木地板及白色牆色与大厅保持一致,牆身装有悬空吊柜,可放置各种文件或书籍。主人套浴则以米色瓷砖为主,配合白色洗手盆及同色浴缸,方便打理。

玻璃分隔淋浴区

至于另外2个睡房均属长方形设计,室内设有窗户可欣赏优美海景,室内放置上下层床,另一边则配备分层书架及书桌,为孩子提供学习空间。此外,浴室设有半透明玻璃分隔的淋浴区,令浴室保持乾爽,而厨房用具齐全,备有厨柜可放置大量物品。

上述城市花园极高层A室,面积1150方呎,3房2厅间隔,其中包括1个套房,单位外望全海景,业主现开价1500万元放售,平均呎价13043元。以该屋苑同类1150方呎单位而言,目前市价每方呎约11500元。记者:周浩全摄影:陈尧华

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30. 港股终止跌 交投续淡
星岛日报 2011-01-27 星岛财经, B02

期指结算前炒家转仓,港股好淡争持,高低波幅逾三百点,成交只有六百八十二亿元,分析员表示,由于下周是农历年假,投资者入市意欲不高。证券界人士指出,好友乘内地股市反弹,再推高建行(939),和黄(013)及腾讯(700),令港股在午后回升。恒指收报二三八四三点,升五十四点,结束连续四日的跌势。

中大全球政治经济社会科学硕士课程兼任讲师邓声兴表示,港股止跌回升,但成交亦少,主要是临近期指结算,下周也是农历年假,投资者入市意欲不高。而且市场担心加息,内地拆息抽高,资金紧绌下,市场资金亦被抽掉回内地。他估计后市会在二三六○○点至二四三○○点徘徊。

腾讯创新高

A股造好,沪指高收百分之一点二,重返二千七百点关口,收二七○八,深成指升百分之一点三,报一一六○○。恒生指数期指收报二三八五八点,升七十七点,高水十五点,成交逾十一万张。国企指数升近八十八点,收报一二六四九点。

重磅股方面,滙控(005)跌近百分之一,收报八十六元;中移动(941)跌六角,收报七十六点三元;中国人寿(2628)升五仙,收报三十点九元;工商银行(1398)及港交所(388)无升跌。

招商局(144)与中信泰富(267)是升幅最大的蓝筹,均升约百分之三点一;宣布设立五十亿元人民币产业共赢基金的腾讯控股,创收市新高,收报二百零二点八元,升近百分之一点九。

华耐股东悉数减持

华耐控股(1020)宣布,股东柴希树于本周二以每股一点六元价格,悉数出售在华耐的百分之九持股,配售价较昨日收市价一点七元,折让近百分之六。

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31. 拟将政权世袭 成示威导火线
星岛日报 2011-01-27 国际, A22

穆巴拉克统治埃及逾三十年,他一直没有指定接班人,外界揣测他准备扶植儿子贾迈勒继承总统职位,总统世袭问题成为反政府示威的导火线之一。

穆巴拉克没有表态会否参加本年的大选,寻求第五次连任。但不少埃及官员相信,如果穆巴拉克健康许可将参与角逐。但穆巴拉克去年三月曾前往德国接受手术,令人对其健康产生疑问。许多埃及人认为穆巴拉克可能「传位」给四十七岁的贾迈勒,他们对此大为不满。

儿欠缺军方背景

爆发反政府示威后,穆巴拉克的传位计画更难得逞。此外,有别于穆巴拉克和其他埃及总统,贾迈勒缺乏军方背景,亦令人质疑贾迈勒一旦当上总统,能否建立威信,据报军方也对贾迈勒有微言。

贾迈勒是穆巴拉克的幼子,毕业于开罗私立精英学府美国大学(AmericanUniversity),曾于美国银行担任投资银行家。他在过去十年于政坛冒升,目前担任执政党民族民主党的政策委员会秘书长,经常在全国推广政策,也常在网上开设论坛讨论年轻人的问题,他的盟友则在内阁担任财政部的要职。路透社

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32. 购TVB财团台资最触目
星岛日报 2011-01-27 星岛投资, B10

港股终扭转连续4天跌势,但力度始终不够。本周五期指结算,而农历年前只得5天交易,相信投资者宁可观望待春节后才进去向’毕竟内地在过年前会否加息仍足不明朗因素。入行随峙春节前后加息

内地银行首月新增贷款\在人行大力压缩下,据闻仍录得极猛增长’传已达1.2万亿元,若按今年新增贷款目标为7.j万亿元计,已达全年目标的16%。早前’盛传人行要求1月份新增贷款不可超过全年的十二分之一’!即约全年的8.3%,现时已双倍完成;就算按以往愤常情况\头三季都各占全年三分之一计’期内每月鄘只是剑年的1l至12%,现睁晴况都属超标。因此’!近期内地银行都下重手严限各地分行放贷,而贷款息口亦太幅抽高。按此走势,人行在春节前后加息压抑贷款增长极有可能,因此投资者近期都较为审瞋‘ [

j笔者早前讲过,本港好鸟庄家股经常利用2『炒下跃』的伎俩损害小股东利耗’如利用拆股权合股6’并大折让供股,令股价力散。在供股之余吏选择送红股,即有供股者可以琐红股,无供股者不可以获红股’这样令小股东供又阢’不供又死’阳此证监及港交所要留意情况’蚓要时要修例堵塞造些损害小股东的举动。昨日’捌资者保障协会便召开记偖会,由数名苦主诉说如何敝这些r炒下跌c的伎俩损害,要求证监会修例堵塞。其实,看看协会的提议,其实都合情合理’例如拆股、合股东供股0’应有一定时间限制,免有些公司一年内又拆又合尺供股。此外供股折让应有限制,免再出现逾#O%的大折让。笔者认为折让40%应是上限。此外’笔者认为供股送红股亦要不得,因噶送红股是供就有得送[’不供就无得送,有点似逼队一定要供股’对不愿供股或无力供股的小股东极不公平‘ [6 有厂手机女匐!力撑 \6电视广播股权易手经过几曙转折终于落实/以前曾洽购者包括碧桂园(2007)大股东杨国强、恒地主席李兆基之子李家杰,但最终花落壳王陈国强之手。今次陈国强组成的财团实力雄厚,包括台塑已故董事长王永庆之女王雪红,以及基金ProvidenceEquity Partners’当然,受法例所限’陈国强必须是财团的大股东’但王雪红及Providence EquitvPartners实力非常雄厚,王被称为r智慧型手机女王J ’其创办的HTC在芸芸外资强手竞争下,仍能杀人市场占有不轻份额’在台湾生产出第一部WindowsMobile为平台的智能手机,而第一部采用Google的Android平台的智慧型手机’亦是由H了C第一个做。至于ProvidenceEquity Partners据讲管理资产达220亿美元,今次财团有财力又有脑,相信对未来7VB发展可带来新冲击,对股价应有助。星岛日报总采访主任auchoyee@gmail.com

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33. 安东石油拟拆管材业上市
星岛日报 2011-01-27 星岛财经, B03

把握石油开采行业复甦的趋势,石油服务商安东石油(3337)副总裁皮至峰定下目标,将年增长逾百分之三十的完井、井下作业以及钻井服务三大业务比重?由目前的占营业比重百分之七十五提升至九十以上。年增速逾百分之十的管材业务则计画独立发展,正考虑未来引入投资者或者分拆上市。

皮至峰表示,过去几年已投入五亿元开发完井技术服务业务,今后三年将投入三至四亿元于井下作业以及钻井服务,用作购买设备。他强调新技术研发对油服行业至关重要,每年投入研发开支出达到收入百分之八,同时亦聘用大量技术人员。公司去年更成立油气田开发部,计画展开从设计到钻井的一体化服务,至今已获得一千万合同。随着石油行业需求强劲增长,他相信有关业务会爆发性增长,综合毛利率可保持在百分之四十至四十五。

安东石油目前业务七成以上为天然气新井服务,于国内主要客户为中石油、中石化以及承包油田区块的国外油公司,海